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Tamil Nadu is preparing for crucial assembly by-elections in Madurantakam and Dharapuram, following the defection of winning AIADMK legislators to the ruling TVK.
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00:09TAMILNADU'S TWIN BIPOLE BATTLE
00:16TVK'S FIRST ELECTORAL TEST IN PAR
00:22CAN DMK BREAK INTO AIA-DMK TERF
00:29AIA-DMK FIGHTS TO HOLD ITS BASTIONS
00:36TWO SEATS, THREE-WAY BATTLES
00:44WHO WILL ACE TAMILNADU'S TWIN TESTS?
00:48Hello and welcome to this special broadcast. I'm Akshita Nandakopala.
00:52Over the next 30 minutes we're going to be talking about the big BIPOLE TEST
00:55IN TAMILNADU.
00:57On October 6th, TAMILNADU WILL WITNESS TWO MAJOR BIPOLE BATTLES.
01:00BOTH SEATS CONSIDERED TO BE TRADITIONAL AIA-DMK STRONG HOLES.
01:04LET'S DECORD BOTH CONSTITUENCIES ONE BY ONE.
01:07THE FIRST, MADURANTHAKAM.
01:09IT'S A CONSTITUENCY VERY CLOSE TO CHENNEY IN CHENGALPATH DISTRICT.
01:13IN THE ELECTIONS THAT HAPPENED JUST A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO IN APRIL, AIA-DMK'S KUMARAVEL
01:20HAD IN FACT WON THE SEED BY A MARGIN OF 7,194 VOTES, FOLLOWED BY TVK AND DMK.
01:26MADURANTHAKAM IS AROUND 77 KILOMETERS FROM CHENNEY AND PERFUNDS, IN FACT, PART OF THE
01:32SOUTHERN OUTSKIRTS OF THE CHENNEY REGION.
01:3442% OF ITS VOTERS ARE FROM THE SCHEDULED CAST COMMUNITY.
01:37THE SECOND CONSTITUENCY, DARAPURAM IN TIRAPUR DISTRICT.
01:41IT IS IN THIS ASSEMBLY ELECTION A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO THAT AIA-DMK'S SATYABAMA WON BY
01:49A MARGIN OF 16,727 VOTES, FOLLOWED BY DMK AND TVK.
01:54DARAPURAM IS IN FACT IN THE KONGU BELT.
01:58THE KONGU BELT IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE AIA-DMK STRONGOLDER.
02:01AGAIN, 26% OF ITS VOTERS ARE FROM THE SCHEDULED CAST COMMUNITY.
02:05HERE'S WHERE THE POLITICAL EQUATION GETS INTERESTING THOUGH.
02:07BOTH AIA-DMK WINNERS HAVE NOW SWITCHED SIDES.
02:10THEY'RE WITH THE TVK.
02:12WHY ARE THESE BIPOLES IMPORTANT FOR ALL THREE MAJOR PLAYERS?
02:15I'LL BREAK IT DOWN FOR YOU.
02:16FIRST FOR THE TVK.
02:17THIS IS THE FIRST ELECTORAL TEST OF THE NEW GOVERNMENT.
02:20IS THERE A SENSE OF ANTI-INCUMBENCY OR NOT?
02:22WE'LL KNOW IN A FEW DAYS FROM NOW.
02:24THESE ARE TURN COATES WHO HAVE BEEN GIVEN THE TICKET FROM AIA-DMK
02:27SWITCHED OVER TO THE TVK, WHICH IS WHAT NECESSITED THE BIPOL.
02:30SO DOES TEST THE TVK'S REACH IN AIA-DMK TERRITORY?
02:34FOR THE DMK, FIRST ELECTORAL TEST, AFTER LOSING POWER.
02:38AND SO IT'S A TEST OF ITS POSITION AS THE MAIN OPPOSITION
02:41IN SEATS THAT'S CONSIDED TO BE THE AIA-DMK STRONGHOLD.
02:44FOR THE AIA-DMK, BOTH SEATS LOST TO DEFECTORS.
02:49IT'S A TEST OF EPS'S LEADERSHIP BECAUSE THEY'VE ALREADY DITCHED HIM
02:52AND SWITCHED OVER TO THE TVK.
02:54AND THESE ARE STRONGHOLDS OF THE AIA-DMK.
02:56LET'S BEGIN BY TAKING A LOOK AT A GROUND REPORT ON Dharapuram.
03:08Dharapuram is witnessing a political storm.
03:16ROADSHOWS, RALLIES AND CAMPAIGN VEHICLES HAVE TAKEN OVER STREETS AS PARTIES MAKE LAST MILE PUSH FOR VOTES.
03:25CHIEF MINISTER WIJAY'S CAMPAIGN FOR PARTY CANDIDATE IN ASSEMBLY BY POLLS.
03:30PEACE SATHYBAMA DREW LARGE CROWDS, TURNING THE ROADSHOW INTO A MAJOR POLITICAL SPECTICLE.
03:53PEACE SATHYBAMA DREW LARGE CROWDS, TURNING THE ROADSHOWS, TURNING THE ROADSHOWS, TURNING THE ROADSHOWS, TURNING THE ROADSHOWS.
04:05DMK CHIEF MK STALIN HAS ALSO CAMPAIGNED HERE, WHILE AIA-DMK AND NTK HAVE STEPPED UP THEIR CAMPAIGN AFFIRTS.
04:15BUT BENEATH THE CAMPAIGN NOISE, Dharapuram's farmers are raising some very old concerns.
04:24FOR FARMERS DEPENDENT ON UPAR DAM, WATER REMAINS A CRITICAL ISSUE.
04:30THE DAM IS SPREAD BY SURPLUS WATER FROM THE THIRUMURTHI DESERVOID UNDER THE PARAMBIKULAM ALIYAR PROJECT.
04:38FARMERS HERE SAY THEY ARE NOW FACING SEVERE WATER SCARCITY.
04:43THE ISSUE EVEN SPILLED ONTO THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL.
04:48TVK CANDIDATE SATYBAMA FACED OPPOSITION FROM LOCAL FARMERS WHO QUESTIONED HER OVER WATER SCARCITY,
04:55ELEGED DIVERSION OF WATER BY COMMERCIAL UNITS AND PENDING IRRIGATION PROMISES.
05:03AND SOME VILLAGERS HAVE GONE A STEP FURTHER,
05:06PUTTING UP BANNERS ANNOUNCING AN ELECTION BOYCOTT OVER THEIR DEMANDS.
05:11NOW, THIS DAM DOES NOT GET ANY WATER, BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF GETTING WATER,
05:17THE RAIN, DURING THE RAINY DAYS, EXCESS WATER CAN COME INTO THIS NALADANGAL DAM FROM VARADAMANADHI
05:23OR FROM AMARAVADHI DAM.
05:25THERE ARE PROPOSALS GOING ON, THERE ARE PROJECT, PROJECT HAS BEEN LAID OUT,
05:31BUT IT HAS NOT BEEN MADE FINAL, AND WE ARE GIVING REPRESENTATION TO VARIOUS GOVERNMENTS
05:36FOR THE PAST THREE YEARS, BUT IT HAS BECOME FINAL YET.
05:43THE GRIEVANCES STRETCH BACK DECADES.
05:46IN THE YEAR 2000, MORE THAN 110 FARMING FAMILIES REPORTEDLY GAVE UP
05:50AROUND 724 ACRES FOR THE NALADANGAL RESERVOIR KANAL.
05:55MORE THAN TWO DECADES LATER, THE AFFECTED FAMILIES SAY THEY ARE STILL CAUGHT
05:58IN LEGAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE UNCERTAINITY.
06:20AND WATER ISN'T THE ONLY COMPLAINT.
06:25VILLAGERS IN RURAL PARTS OF THE CONSTITUENCY ALSO SAY
06:28THAT FREQUENT POWER CUTS HAVE BECOME A DAILY PROBLEM,
06:32ADDING TO DIFFICULTIES FACED BY FARMING COMMUNITIES.
06:35400 KW TRANSMISSION LINE PROPOSED.
06:39IT IS A PASA.
06:42IN THE PASA, COCONANT CULTIVATION IS PRIMED.
06:47THE LINE IS CUT UP 30 METRES.
06:51y'ICEUCH INTO THE PERSONAL PARTS OF THE HIT.
07:21THE LINE IS CUT UP 30 METRES.
07:31Meanwhile, another flashpoint has emerged over the construction of high-voltage power cables
07:36with villagers opposing the work.
07:39The campaign has also seen political sparring over permissions.
07:44AIA DMK alleged that its Dharapuram candidate was initially denied permission for final campaign,
07:50citing security concerns linked to Chief Minister's campaign.
07:55The party said permission was later granted following Election Commission intervention.
08:01In Dharapuram, the campaign may be dominated by roadshows and political rallies,
08:06but for many voters here, the real issues are far more basic.
08:12Water for their fields, electricity for their villages,
08:16and answers to grievances that have remained unresolved for years.
08:21As the election campaigning heats up, candidates are finding that manifestos matter a little,
08:28where the need for water, for survival and sustenance matters a lot more.
08:34With video journalist Daniel Indharapuram, Apoor Bajai Chandran, India Today.
08:38Now let's take a look at what the situation is in Madhurantakam.
08:42Very, very close to Chennai.
08:44Let's give you a sense of why this battle matters.
08:47Who's ahead? A ground report by Anika Keshav.
09:00Tamil Nadu is heading into a major twin-bipole fight.
09:03And one of the biggest and closest constituencies to Chennai is Madhurantakam.
09:11When the 2026 assembly elections happened, it was a very close, three-cornered fight.
09:17The first place was AIA-DMK.
09:19It was the ADMK candidate that had won the assembly elections, followed by TVK and then the DMK.
09:25But then, the difference between the DMK and the TVK was only a margin of 2,000 votes.
09:32The difference between AIA-DMK and the TVK was a margin of 7,000 votes.
09:36And that's what makes this bipole in Madhurantakam all the more interesting.
09:41TVK has feel it Maragatham Kumarave, who won the April bipole from the same constituency, but on the AIDMK symbol.
09:51For the DMK, this seat is about proving itself as the opposition.
09:55But voters here are also looking towards the old guardian of Tamil Nadu.
10:05The other hand, the other hand, the other hand, the other hand.
10:40Madhura Antakam has a sizable SC population, but agriculture remains the top focus for voters here.
11:25CmbJ was seen campaigning across the city, while former C.M.M.K.
11:29Stalin also stepped up his campaign trail.
11:59He came to work with his name.
12:03He said no.
12:05He said no.
12:28But the real fight is for the AIA-DMK.
12:31These two constituencies were once AIA-DMK's strongholds.
12:35Now, the party appears to be facing a challenge to its hold over them.
12:39For EPS, retaining these seats is the only option.
12:43What do you think of the AIA-DMK?
13:13A.I.I.D.M.K. cast their votes for the Magical Two Leaves Symbols.
13:18So in Madhurantakam particularly, will the voters change their mind and vote for a change or will they continue voting
13:27for A.I.I.D.M.K. is the big question.
13:29October 6th is when the bi-poll is going to happen.
13:31It's going to be a very tight and an interesting three-cornered fight to watch out for between A.I
13:38.I.D.M.K., TVK and the D.M.K.
13:41With camera person Roop Singh and Agar Keshiv reporting for India Today from Madhurantakam.
13:47We're days away from the epic bi-poll battle in Tamil Nadu.
13:51Madhurantakam as well as Darapuram, traditional A.I.I.D.M.K. strongholds.
13:56But this time a very interesting battle shaping up because both the A.I.I.D.M.K. MLAs who
14:00won, now with the TVK.
14:02Joining me on this broadcast, Mr. Sumansi Raman as well as Mr. Rangaraj Pandey, political analyst to decode who they
14:08think has the advantage going into these bi-polls.
14:11Mr. Sumansi Raman, I'd like to begin with you, sir, your opening comments on both Madhurantakam as well as Darapuram.
14:17Do you think it's advantage TVK or that the D.M.K. stands a chance or is this actually a
14:22three-way contest?
14:24I think the TVK has its nose comfortably in front.
14:28Now, how far in front does the TVK have its nose, we don't know yet.
14:32But clearly, from whatever feedback we are getting, a lot of the A.I.I.D.M.K. vote is
14:38shifting towards the TVK.
14:40For obvious reasons, the A.I.D.M.K. is seen as a dwindling force now.
14:46And also the fact that the two candidates are actually ex-A.I.D.M.K. candidates who are now
14:52contesting on the TVK symbol.
14:53So, for that reason, I would expect both these battles to be largely fought between TVK and D.M.K.
15:03Some of the informal pollsters tell us that the TVK is comfortably in front.
15:09What is going to be interesting is also going to be the margin of victory, Akshita.
15:12Because if the TVK wins by 5,000 votes or 7,000 votes, it will be seen as a huge
15:17setback.
15:18Even though a win is a win, you know, so they need to win comfortably and they need to have
15:25an impressive polling percentage.
15:26Remember, in the assembly election, they contested a load.
15:29Now they are contesting as part of an alliance along with the Congress Party, along with the VCK and the
15:36IUML.
15:36So, technically, they should do better than what they have done in the assembly election.
15:43So, it's going to be interesting for the AIA-D.M.K. and the D.M.K. It's really a
15:46question of who can finish second, who can finish third.
15:50And how respectable a performance they can come up with.
15:54Because for both of them, a very bad performance will seriously impact the morale of the cadre.
16:01Yep. The optics matter in this one. Mr. Rangaraj Pandey is also with us.
16:04One of the aspects, Mr. Rangaraj Pandey, that constantly comes up here, is that this will also be the people's
16:09mandate on whether they are okay with these MLA switching sides, dropping their party allegiance, switching over to the winning
16:15side and the allegations of horse trading.
16:23Sir, you're on mute. Mr. Rangaraj Pandey, can you unmute yourself?
16:28Sir, I'm sorry. So, I was waiting for a long time.
16:35So, people won't take those things in their mind.
16:40And they just will think whether we should vote, we should appreciate, whether we should endorse the Vijay government or
16:46not.
16:47So, in that way, I completely agree with Mr. Suman Sri Raman's comment that both the constituency in Tharaburam and
16:54as well as Madhuranthagam, TBK may win.
16:56That is what the ground situation is telling.
16:59And we have to wait for the margin, as he rightly pointed out.
17:03If the margin is huge, then it will be treated as a victory.
17:06But even though the margin is less, you might have noticed in Tharaburam Constituency, the TBK candidate won just the
17:14difference of one vote, a single vote difference.
17:17He won in Tharaburam. He won next minister, Mr. Pariyakarupan.
17:21So, whether you are getting a huge difference or not, win is win, loss is loss.
17:25But the thing is, to correct the politics in a right way, I will expect if ADMK wins in both
17:34the constituency again, that will be neutralizing the harsh trading complaint and all those things.
17:41Because both the MLS, they were candidates of ADMK.
17:47Now, they are contesting from TBK.
17:49I can say that both the candidates were snatched from ADMK.
17:53So, there was no reason at all.
17:55They are, again and again, they are telling that ADMK and DMK were trying to ally.
18:00So, being an ADMK person, we were unable to digest all those things.
18:03So, we switched over to TBK.
18:05This is what their point is.
18:06But they are blatantly lying.
18:08And the second option given to them in Pudicherry, everyone is admitting that.
18:13They've all amicably admitted to make Mr. Thirumawalan as a chief minister.
18:20Then they can all form the government.
18:21In those scenarios also, in the second scenario also, ADMK and DMK has to tie up.
18:27When the Arab party policy has to become the chief minister, they were not happy.
18:31When Mr. Thirumawalan will become CM and…
18:34And it's constantly this issue that the chief minister also is raising in his campaigns.
18:38But ultimately, do you also see this, Mr. Subhansi Raman, as that final test of the power of the two
18:45-leaf symbol?
18:45These are strongholds of the AIA-DMK.
18:50I would not call them traditional strongholds because even though Madhavan Thakam has been won more often by the AIA
18:57-DMK than the DMK,
18:59it has been won by the DMK also in the past and so has Darapuram.
19:02So, they are not the hardcore strongholds like, for instance, a Count Ambalayam would be or some other constituencies would
19:09be.
19:09Now, my point is very simple.
19:11The AIA-DMK needs to put up at least a decent show here for Mr. Yadapadi Paraniswamy to retain control
19:20of the party.
19:21Otherwise, more and more people will leave.
19:23Suppose they finish in third place in both the constituencies, which they won less than six months ago,
19:30then it marks the beginning of the end for the party.
19:34More people will leave.
19:35And unless Mr. Yadapadi Paraniswamy is removed from the leadership of the party, there will be no future for the
19:40AIA-DMK.
19:41Absolutely.
19:42So, that is something which is very critical.
19:44For the DMK also, how much ground have they lost?
19:47Because they have lost all their allies.
19:49The communists also are contesting on their own.
19:50So, the last time they contested with Congress, they contested with communists, they contested with VCK, with IUML, a whole
19:57lot of people.
19:58This time, they are on their own.
20:00So, it's going to be a huge test for them to put up a decent show.
20:04If they lose very badly, then the questions, serious questions will start to be asked about the DMK's prospects also
20:11going forward.
20:12How do you think, Mr. Rangaraj Pandey, my final question to you is on the DMK's performance.
20:17This is a big test for them too.
20:19You know, they need these talents, talent.
20:20They've also been there campaigning.
20:23DMK is not showing that much justification to their party.
20:29But, of course, the competition might be between ADMK and TVK.
20:33Because even though Madarandakam is not ADMK's stronghold, and now the PMK, the ADMK alliance, PMK has also said that
20:41we will be neutral.
20:42We will not be supporting anybody.
20:43So, the ADMK launched their PMK support also.
20:46So, those vote also may go to TVK.
20:49But Tarapuram is traditionally ADMK built like Avinasi and Dada.
20:54So, we have to see the margin.
20:57Where DMK, we are seeing that today, when we are discussing this debate, the Honorable Chief Minister, Mr. Vijay, is
21:06continuously campaigning in Madarandakam right from 2.30 p.m. today.
21:10So, until more than 4 hours, he is in campaign, he is in the field.
21:14We have not witnessed any Chief Minister in recent days campaigning in this capacity on by-elections.
21:22Normally, the Chief Ministers never campaign in by-elections in Tamil Nadu because the win will be obvious.
21:29But in this scenario, we can see that CM is spending his huge money.
21:32So, I think ADMK will get a decent position and a TVK may win.
21:38And obviously, those seats were not a DMK seat, so they may lie low.
21:44That's all we have time for on this broadcast.
21:47Thanks very much for tuning in here on India Today.
21:49We will track very, very closely the big political fight and the updates that come in as we get closer
21:54and closer to the twin bipolar contest in Tamil Nadu.
21:58Thanks very much for tuning in.