00:00And let's get you all the updates to watch out for on the Tamil Nadu Bipole.
00:05Hours to go for the Bipole battle tomorrow in two seats.
00:08Madhuran Thakam and Dharapuram voting will kick off.
00:12And let me break down first the top X factors on this broadcast.
00:17Why are we watching out for this Bipole?
00:20Well, there are in fact six X factors that we have identified.
00:24First, that there's a five-way vote split.
00:27Not a three-way, but a five-way.
00:28There's a TVK, the DMK, the AIA, DMK, the NTK and the left.
00:33At these two, the fourth and fifth factor that I refer to cannot be dismissed.
00:37Because obviously they play a vote-cutting element.
00:39In which case the question is who will go ahead and benefit.
00:43A fragmented anti-TVK vote bank.
00:46The fact that these two were seats that were won by the AIA, DMK does suggest that it's not a
00:51strong Vijay wave that worked last time.
00:54There were other caste combinations also that must be considered.
00:57But the reality is that the two candidates who won as MLAs designed, switched over to the TVK.
01:05And so even the anti-TVK vote bank completely fragmented right now.
01:10The Vaniyar votes is a key swing factor, particularly in the seat of Madhurantaka, which is very, very close to
01:18Chennai.
01:19Now the Vaniyar vote is crucial in this particular seat.
01:22And that's why I constantly refer to it also as a five-way battle.
01:26Now what's also interesting is that this particular bi-poll will give a mandate of the voters on whether they've
01:33gone ahead and believed the TVK narrative.
01:35That these were MLAs who defected because they were unhappy with the party.
01:39Or whether they believe the opposition's narrative, that there was horse trading, that these MLAs were stolen, that they were
01:44lured with money.
01:46This is a mandate on which one the voter believes.
01:49DMK's old allies are now with TVK.
01:52So the situation as it was a couple of months ago, it's changed from April to now.
01:57How much of a factor is there in that, the fact that the Congress is now with the TVK, the
02:02fact that all the other parties, including VCK and the likes, are also with the TVK.
02:08How much of a factor is that, is a question.
02:10Whether DMK will pay the price for the fact that they have no allies left.
02:14There is also the aspect of the fact that the TVK needs the numbers on their side.
02:18The reason this bi-poll is crucial is because these two seats will help them come out of that minority
02:23government mindset.
02:24Especially with the left constantly criticising the TVK, making it very clear that we are only giving outside support.
02:31They need all the numbers they can get.
02:33Now the biggest factor here is the scheduled caste community.
02:38Both seats are SE reserved.
02:40Both seats have a very prominent percentage of SE votes.
02:44Who can sway this particular bracket, perhaps will seal this by-election.
02:50Now as far as Dharapuram is concerned, there is also a sense of anti-incumbency.
02:55That the actual battle to watch out for will be in the seat of Dharapuram.
02:59That this would be a tough one for the TVK.
03:01And it could even be that the AIE DMK comes into second place.
03:05In which case, where does that leave?
03:07The DMK.
03:08That is a sense of what really our reporters also picked up from the ground.
03:12Let me bring in Pramod Madhav on this broadcast.
03:15Who has been travelling around, getting a sense of what the mood is ahead of this bipole.
03:19Pramod, why have we seen such a high profile, high voltage campaign?
03:25You know, it's two seats essentially up for grabs.
03:28Two seats in a bipole in Tamil Nadu usually would mean a small contest.
03:33Nothing that, you know, is at this level or this stage that we are seeing it in in Tamil Nadu.
03:37Why is it so crucial for every political party?
03:41Well, we can clearly say it is actually kind of like an, should we say it's an ego battle
03:45or something for AIE DMK, Akshita, over here.
03:47And the second one is for DMK, it is more like proving that like they still have a kind
03:52of basic on the ground when it comes to this kind of issue of bipole.
03:55Just like you mentioned, I mean, like at least for the past 20 years, when it comes to bipole,
03:59such bipoles went unnoticed when it comes to the state of Tamil Nadu.
04:03There was not this kind of like, you know, festival mood or something like that,
04:06or such massive kind of campaign over there.
04:08But for DMK, this is a TBK, this is a very crucial one, because both are AIA DMK.
04:15And the way the chief minister is actually taking over this kind of like campaign,
04:18we can clearly see that he is fighting DMK over a kind of like indecent remarks and claiming
04:24that women are being insulted by the DMK chief and his son.
04:27So that seems to be the only kind of allegation he has.
04:30This is after the court's intervention and he could not speak on the Veeramani case.
04:33That is when Adhavar Jindal, Nirmal Kumar and the chief minister stopped talking about it after it went to the
04:40court.
04:40However, when it comes to AIA DMK, the chief minister, we can clearly see that he is positioning himself as
04:46the next MG.
04:48So that's where the factor actually falls upon.
04:51People agree or not, we can clearly see, because the way he's been portraying himself over there
04:56and the two campaigns he spoke very clearly said that he is here to save AIA DMK.
05:00And he said, do not worry, AIA DMK carers, I will take care of you.
05:03So that way, this is very, very important, because it's going to put forward TBK probably as the next AIA
05:09DMK as well, Akshita.
05:11Pramod, you know, there were a couple of X factors that I spoke of just before we had you join
05:16us on this broadcast.
05:17Which is the one X factor that stands out for you, Pramod?
05:20What is the one issue or aspect that will seal this bipole for either side?
05:27Well, I mean, it looks like it's already been sealed for one particular party over here.
05:32And that party seems to be the one that has the charisma when it comes to the ground,
05:36because the crowd is absolutely swelling over there.
05:38And AIA DMK wants to prove that they are still the, you know, have a massive kind of power
05:42when it comes to Dharapuram because of the cast factor.
05:45But just like you mentioned, when it comes to Madhara Andagam, the cast factor actually falls,
05:49we should say, in favor of PMK.
05:51But PMK has decided not to support any party for this particular one.
05:54So, you know, if you go through the kind of like, you know, attraction and kind of like charisma or
06:00something,
06:00we can categorize which party is number one, number two and number three.
06:03So that way, it looks like all the results have been made.
06:05So do that for us, Pramo, do that for us.
06:08You're saying based on charisma, you've been on the ground.
06:11So take, it's through which party's campaign has really captured the imagination of the voter there?
06:17Well, see, one thing is very certain.
06:19People are very much excited to see the chief minister that you're going to say on the ground.
06:23And what he also did was that, like, he actually fed them what he wanted.
06:26He actually went ahead, he drank tea, he drove a tractor, he actually, wherever he could,
06:32he actually stopped his vehicle, met the people, he drove a bullock cart, I mean, a regular race cart.
06:37And also, he went, he spoke to the farmers.
06:40He actually was actually, you know, Murunga car or drumstick, he actually took it from the farmer's hands as well.
06:46So that's why he very clearly says that he wants to be on the ground.
06:50And that way, it looks like the number one cart actually goes for TVK.
06:53And then we have the EMK, because the former chief minister, EMK Salah's speech,
06:57absolutely were evocating very clearly about, you know, this is the kind of election that has been imposed over the
07:02people.
07:03And he clearly says that this is nothing but post-training, and he wants to warn the people.
07:07Will they listen to him? That's a different situation.
07:10And the third, also, we have Hedapanike Parishwamy, who very clearly called these two candidates, asked traitors,
07:15and he simply said that AIDMK is together.
07:17And one thing that went in favor of AIDMK, that two days ago, was about the detention of one of
07:23the district secretaries of AIDMK called Selva Kumar.
07:26And unfortunately, the carers who went over there, they gave out, they showed AIDMK strength over there.
07:30But unfortunately, they were actually, you know, also raising derogatory kind of like words or statements against the chief minister,
07:36Akshita.
07:36So that way, we can actually see respondents about those personal jibes in just a bit.
07:40Just stay with me.
