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Sam Monson joins the program to run through his biggest surprise and dissapointing teams through the first three weeks of the NFL season.
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00:00Helping us make sense of the entire NFL is our buddy Sam Monson.
00:04You can give him a follow at SamMonsonNFL.
00:06Check out the Check the Mic podcast.
00:08Sam, what's up, dude? How you been?
00:11Doing well, guys. How about you?
00:12We are good, man. We're good.
00:14A little jet lag, but we're catching up with everything.
00:17I want to start, eventually we'll get to the commanders,
00:20but I kind of want to go league-wide with you to start things off.
00:24What team now through three weeks has been the biggest surprise for you?
00:28And what team has been the biggest disappointment?
00:32I guess the biggest disappointment ones are easier.
00:36Chargers have got to be the most obvious one.
00:39They were getting a ton of hype in the offseason.
00:42Everyone loved this idea of what Justin Herbert and Mike McDaniel could create together,
00:47and it's just been a disaster for them so far.
00:51I mean, they've looked utterly miserable.
00:54Everything is bad.
00:55It's sort of inexplicably bad.
00:58It makes no sense.
01:00You know, it's the first time Jim Harbaugh's had anything like this kind of start,
01:03and it's just a catastrophe.
01:05The Texans, I think you could probably throw in the same boat,
01:08so they haven't been as bad.
01:10They're just in a hole as well because they're 0-3.
01:13I guess on the positive side, you would say the Vikings being 3-0 given what they've had to deal
01:20with,
01:21new quarterback.
01:22Kyla Murray, you know, got hurt first drive, I think, of the season,
01:25so they've been kind of muddling through with this makeshift offense.
01:29But that defense under Brian Flores has just been spectacular.
01:34Yeah, I mean, that Vikings defense has been crazy.
01:37It's funny, during the break, I was just reading this story from The Athletic
01:40on kind of the fall of J.J. McCarthy in Minnesota.
01:44What do you make of the Giants trading for McCarthy,
01:47and do you think he's actually going to get on the field?
01:50Will that happen relatively soon?
01:51What do you make of all that?
01:53I think it makes sense for them to trade for them in terms of, look,
01:59look around the league at the moment, and there's so many tales of Sam Darnold
02:03and Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith twice now,
02:07these quarterbacks that can resuscitate a career
02:10and rejuvenate themselves somewhere else later down the line.
02:14This has always kind of happened in the NFL,
02:17but there was a lull, I think, where we really didn't have these stories
02:21of failing to begin with and then coming somewhere else
02:25and bouncing back and becoming the player that maybe you were supposed to be to begin with,
02:29and all of a sudden it's happening everywhere.
02:32So I think it makes sense to roll the dice on a guy who has failed somewhere before
02:36and see if they can become that guy later down the line.
02:41And you look at what the Browns did with Shador Sanders in the draft,
02:45fifth-round draft pick is the level of, well, what the hell.
02:49You know, it doesn't really make a difference if we're right, if we're wrong.
02:54A quarterback hitting is, the upside of that is so big that a fifth-round pick is worth
02:59throwing in to see if he's that guy.
03:03I think realistically he's there to upgrade the backup spot.
03:06And by the backup, I mean QB3 behind Jameis Winston.
03:11Winston's going to be the starter.
03:12They paid him, you know, $13 million or whatever to do that job.
03:16But that being said, Jameis Winston's the kind of guy that could frustrate you
03:20into putting him on the bench pretty quickly.
03:23So I don't think they plan on playing J.J. McCarthy anytime soon,
03:27but that doesn't mean that, you know, two or three YOLO performances from Jameis Winston
03:33and John Harbaugh doesn't just snap and put in McCarthy.
03:36What seems to be the issue with McCarthy?
03:40I mean, he's a very inexperienced quarterback in terms of having to carry the load by himself.
03:47You know, that was the question mark coming out of college is his performance was really
03:51good, but it was as a complementary piece within the offense.
03:56You know, that term game manager gets kind of thrown around as a pejorative.
04:00That's sort of what he was doing there.
04:02They had this amazing defense.
04:03They had this amazing run game, and then McCarthy would complete 15 of 19 for, you know,
04:09220 yards and a touchdown or two within that offense.
04:13And that was enough for that team to win at pretty much every game they played in.
04:18The question was, well, that doesn't really fly at the NFL level.
04:21If you're going to be in a different offense where you need to do more,
04:24what happens if we ask you to drop back 45 times, 50 times?
04:29Can you still play at that level?
04:31And so far, the answer to that has been no, he hasn't been able to play at that level.
04:34His other main flaw, I think, is he does not layer the ball.
04:39He does not throw a touch.
04:41Everything is a bullet pass.
04:43Everything is a rocket.
04:44And that, again, doesn't fly at the NFL level.
04:47You need more variety.
04:48You need more nuance to your throws.
04:50So, you know, he's a young, inexperienced quarterback that just there's a lot left to develop.
04:56And in the NFL, you just don't really get development time.
04:59You're thrown into the deep end.
05:01And if you don't swim early, it's time to go in a different direction.
05:06And particularly, if it doesn't work early, it's very hard to sort of unpoison the well, right?
05:12Like, everyone points to the, you know, he gets ridiculed now.
05:15The whole nine, the alter ego, all that kind of stuff.
05:18Like, he's a figure of fun.
05:20And it's very hard to sort of go as an organization, okay, we're going to sit him down now.
05:25You know, we'll turn it over to Kyla Murray or Carson Wentz or whoever.
05:28But we still plan on returning to McCarthy down the line because the bridge has kind of already been burned
05:34by how badly it went the first time.
05:36For sure.
05:37Talking with Sam Monson here.
05:39You can give him a follow at Sam Monson NFL.
05:42Check out the Check the Mic podcast.
05:44Two teams in the AFC West playing very different football but good football, the Raiders and the Chiefs.
05:51We'll start with Kansas City.
05:52How impressed have you been by Mahomes through three games?
05:56Yeah, really impressed.
05:57I mean, when you consider he's coming back off a torn ACL, and that was a pretty late torn ACL
06:03as well.
06:03It's a remarkable recovery.
06:05He looks pretty much 100%.
06:07And not just that, but throwing-wise, actually passing the ball, he looks better than he's looked in a few
06:14years.
06:14I mean, this is sort of quietly in the background.
06:18Mahomes has not played like Mahomes for the last couple of seasons.
06:22And you were sort of asking the question, well, how long does he have to play at an obviously lower
06:27level before you say, well, maybe he doesn't have that in him anymore.
06:31Maybe he is just playing worse.
06:32But this season, through three games, he looks as good as he's ever looked passing the ball.
06:38And athletically, you know, he looks pretty much all the way back from that torn ACL.
06:42And I think this offense is still very much still finding its feet in terms of how everybody else is
06:48going to fit into the equation.
06:49So the Chiefs are good already, and there might be a lot more to come from this offense as they
06:54kind of figure out how everything's going to go together.
06:58Well, and this weekend, I mean, it's a hell of a matchup.
07:00Old-school rivalry, Chiefs-Raiders.
07:02Raiders are 3-0.
07:03Kirk's playing good football.
07:05They're playing good defense.
07:07Do you think this Vegas thing is like a fun story right now?
07:10And by the time we get to Thanksgiving, it's like, all right, the Raiders are 4-7, kind of what
07:14we expected.
07:15Or do you think they could be, like, one of these surprise contenders we see every year?
07:20I doubt they can be a surprise contender.
07:22You know, I expect them definitely to cool off as the season goes on.
07:26But I do think they're going to be better than people thought they would.
07:28You know, this Cousins is playing good football right now.
07:31Again, I'm not sure if he can sustain that.
07:34We sort of saw that with Atlanta at this point.
07:37He's kind of a roller coaster.
07:38You're going to get really, really good games, and you're going to get some really rough games in there.
07:42And even in this three-game stretch, the last two have been good, but the first one looked pretty rough.
07:46So I expect there to be some rough Cousins games in there.
07:50And every rough Cousins game moves you, like, a game closer to putting Mendoza in the starting lineup.
07:56So that will be an interesting thing to monitor.
07:58But as long as he plays well, you've got weaponry there to work with.
08:02Suddenly the offensive line is better.
08:04Ashton Gentry looks better because of that.
08:06They're involving him in the pass game nicely as well, which only helps.
08:10Because Rock Bowers is an elite number-one receiver for this offense.
08:14It doesn't really matter whether you call him a wide receiver or a slot guy, a tight end, whatever you
08:19want to name him.
08:20He's the number-one receiver in the offense, and he's very, very good at that.
08:24And that makes everybody else look better as well.
08:26So the defense is still lacking a little behind, but there's enough players there making some plays
08:31that they're able to at least hold up their end of the bargain.
08:33So I think, yeah, the Raiders are going to be better than people thought they would,
08:37but I still don't expect them to be able to sustain, you know, this undefeated run.
08:41I think eventually they'll kind of level off and get closer to 500.
08:45I know in Philadelphia, Hurts takes all the blame most times, whatever something goes on with that team.
08:51But that defense got carved up, too, with a guy who hadn't played a game in more than 1,000
08:56days.
08:57What's happening with them on the defensive side?
09:00Yeah, it did.
09:01I think, honestly, you've got to give a lot of credit to Ben Johnson and Case Keenum.
09:05And, you know, the Bears, they've got a lot of talent on that side of the ball as well.
09:10Obviously, Keenum is a third-string quarterback, an old guy, a guy that hasn't played in a long time.
09:15But he is also a veteran who's, you know, been at the helm of a very good offense,
09:20who's been to the NFC Championship game.
09:22You know, on his resume is at least the ability to have a kind of game like that.
09:26Particularly when you pair him with somebody like Ben Johnson,
09:30who is, you know, as in his bag as any offensive play caller in the NFL at the moment.
09:36And everything else around him is very good.
09:39The offensive line, the run game, the receivers that he's got to work with.
09:44So, yeah, it was a rough game from the Philadelphia defense.
09:47But I think, honestly, it does more about the talent level and the coaching standard
09:52that the Bears have on offense than it did about the Eagles defense.
09:56In that NFC North, who do you trust more?
09:59I mean, the Vikings are the undefeated team.
10:01The Lions, we all know what Dave Campbell is, but they've been up and down.
10:05The Bears are now 2-1.
10:07The Packers are 1-2 and just look lifeless.
10:11Yeah, I mean, the Packers, their offensive line is in pieces.
10:14So, they've done some work this week, basically trawling the NFL for any available veteran
10:19offensive lineman that's there.
10:21And I think that's smart.
10:23They needed to do that.
10:23So, we'll see how that goes together and whether they can kind of bounce back with a better line.
10:28The Vikings are kind of different to the other two.
10:32The Lions and the Bears are both, I think, very offensive, heavy teams where I have a lot
10:38of confidence in both offenses being very good.
10:41Both defenses have got problems.
10:43The Lions more than the Bears, I think.
10:46They're in real trouble at the back end.
10:48In particular, so many injuries, so much bad play.
10:51They're just getting carved up by everybody.
10:52So, I think he's probably got confidence that certainly once the Bears get Caleb Williams
10:57back, that offense will remain really good and the defense can at least be okay.
11:02The Vikings are interesting because that defense is so unique and so good.
11:06If they could ever get the offense to just be decent, then they could be really good.
11:11But that's a total unknown with Kyla Murray and Kevin O'Connell.
11:15And, you know, we just don't know what that's going to look like over any extended period
11:18of time.
11:19But if it does get it together and just kind of play at even an average level, suddenly
11:24they become a really difficult team to beat.
11:26For sure.
11:27Talking to Sam Monson here on the Rude Guest Hotline.
11:31You can give Sam a follow at SamMonsonNFL.
11:34Check out the Check the Mic podcast with Sam and Steve Palazzolo.
11:38Let's get to the NFC East.
11:39Actually, I want to go out west.
11:41The Niners are 3-0, have been really good.
11:45The Rams were a team that everybody's been talking about.
11:47They're now 1-2.
11:49What do you think of Sam Fran through three games?
11:52And then what about these L.A. Rams with all the hype in the world?
11:57Yeah, I mean, I think that first game of the season in Australia, I think the 49ers just
12:04sort of reminded people that this is a very good football team when they've got their
12:07players healthy.
12:08And okay, getting their players healthy seems to be a permanent problem for them, whether
12:13it's substation or whether it's practice habits or whatever it is, they cannot seem to get
12:18out of their own way and just keep their players on the field.
12:20But when their impact players are there, this is a very, very good football team.
12:24And they won a lot of games last year, even without most of those players.
12:28So I think it was kind of a reminder.
12:31Everyone was going into the season saying the Rams are the super team.
12:34They're the favorites.
12:34The Seahawks are the defending champions.
12:36They'll be there as well.
12:38And the 49ers just reminded people, hey, we're a good team as well.
12:42And you know, this is a three-way battle for this division, not a two-way battle.
12:46The Rams, yeah, okay, they've lost a couple of games.
12:49They certainly looked abject that first game against the 49ers.
12:52The Denver game, I think, was more, look, this is a good football team on both sides.
12:58And Denver were able to pull it out of the fire later.
13:01I mean, the Rams have a kind of really rough schedule starting, I think, with that Denver game.
13:07They've got five games or so that is a really rough stretch.
13:10And then they have five games that are much more winnable.
13:13So they may go for a while having a pretty rough-looking record,
13:17but I expect them to kind of write that in the next five games
13:20and then go on a charge late in the season,
13:22and particularly with Myles Garrett and Pukunikua back in the lineup
13:25and just sort of remind people by the sharp end of the season that they are a real contender.
13:31But the stuff with Myles Garrett where it started off as saying there's a certain amount of time,
13:35and now they're extending that a little bit, he may not be back no time soon.
13:40Yeah, I mean, I think they're slow playing all of these injuries.
13:43I think the Rams are honestly taking this approach this season of, you know,
13:47we want to be good in January.
13:49We don't really care what it looks like in September and October.
13:52I think they think that they're good enough to get to the playoffs almost regardless of what happens.
13:58And I think they're probably right about that.
14:00And their real focus is we need, you know, Aaron Donald at his best.
14:05We need Myles Garrett back at his best.
14:07We need Pukunikua at his best in January once the playoffs start.
14:11You know, and that's the important target for this team.
14:14I think, you know, there's something to be said about that.
14:16Like, this team, assuming they make the playoffs, and it's a tough division,
14:20so, you know, it is going to be, you can't just sort of ignore it and mail it in for
14:24the regular season.
14:25But assuming they do make the playoffs, that's when they need those guys.
14:29They need those guys firing on all cylinders in January.
14:33Talking with Sam Monson here on the Rude Guest Hotline.
14:36Sam, I want to get this to Washington now.
14:39Brian and I are here in London ahead of the Commanders-Colts game on Sunday.
14:43Two teams that both got their first win of the year last week in Indy and Washington.
14:49What have you thought of Washington so far?
14:51Obviously, there's a lot of kind of speculation and concern with Jaden's elbow,
14:57but it looks like he will be back far sooner than people expected, even if that's not this week.
15:02But what do you make of this Burgundy and Gold team?
15:05Yeah, I think the offense has been quite impressive, particularly given the injury at Laramie Tunsil.
15:12I thought that would be a massive blow for them going into the season.
15:15I think they've held up okay on the offensive line.
15:18And the skill position players that they've got are definitely good enough to do some damage.
15:22And I think we've seen Diggs make more of an impact in the last couple of weeks,
15:26and that offense can still be really good.
15:29But the defense, I think, still has some fairly significant question marks about it,
15:33again, particularly on the back end.
15:35It's kind of a bit like Detroit, where you can really attack this team and get after them in coverage.
15:40And I think that's potentially an Achilles heel for this group over the course of the season.
15:45But, you know, if they get Jaden Daniels back in the lineup,
15:48he's the type of quarterback that can marry that offense, that can make that offense go
15:54and really drag this team to a decent record and to a decent performance.
15:59What do you make of specifically this matchup against the Colts?
16:03I kind of like the matchup for Washington in that Indy likes to get big
16:08and try to run the ball on you and pound Jonathan Taylor.
16:12The commander's rush defense has been really pretty good through three games.
16:16What do you make of the matchup?
16:19Yeah, I think you're right.
16:20That's exactly what the Colts want to do,
16:22and it's a good area for Washington to try and slow them down.
16:26And then the Colts are still trying to figure out what their passing attack looks like.
16:30Alec Pierce had that response of his injury and got kind of put on the shelf.
16:35It was already going to be an offense in flux without Michael Pittman Jr. there
16:39and pivoting towards guys like Alec Pierce and Josh Downs to pick up the slack.
16:44And now it's Josh Downs, it's Keenan Allen, some of the young tight end, Tyler Warren.
16:52And so it's a lot of kind of passing over the middle, not an awful lot of perimeter threat.
16:56I think it does match up pretty well with Washington and potentially their week where Washington is weak.
17:03So, yeah, I think you're right that it's a good matchup for this defense.
17:07Yeah, and where's Daniel Jones' game been so far through three games?
17:11I haven't watched a ton of it.
17:12I'm going to try to get to it this week.
17:14It's just crazy with the travel.
17:16Yeah, I think he's been okay.
17:17It's difficult to know with Daniel Jones sort of what he is at this point, not just coming off that
17:22injury, but just generally.
17:24I mean, last season was spectacular for sort of half the year.
17:28The Colts were the surprise package.
17:30They looked like a team that was a contender.
17:32I think they thought they were a contender, which is why they made that trade for Sauce Gardner midseason.
17:37And then the wheels just about started to wobble and come off before Daniel Jones got injured.
17:43And then he got injured and the wheels completely fell off, obviously.
17:47And now, I mean, I think if you were watching him, you wouldn't notice that this is a guy who's
17:51coming off an Achilles injury.
17:53You wouldn't see it from his tape, but he hasn't necessarily been playing particularly impressive football for the first few
17:59weeks either.
17:59So, it's hard to know how much of that is injury-related.
18:04You know, he just doesn't feel 100%.
18:06He doesn't feel as explosive as he used to.
18:08And how much of it is, this is kind of where Daniel Jones plays for the majority of his NFL
18:13career in this kind of average level.
18:18It's crazy how good they looked last year before Danny Dimes got hurt.
18:23Because they were phenomenal.
18:24Yeah, they were.
18:25And you just wonder, it's two coaches on relative hot seats, I would say, and Steichen and Dan Quinn.
18:33And then you add the whatever weirdness level of it being in London.
18:38You know, do you have a lean or a thought going into this one?
18:44Yeah, the Colts are a difficult team to peg because they tend to kind of bounce around that average solid
18:51level.
18:51And that's why, you know, they're on the hot seat because they're not able to get any better than that
18:56for more than half the season.
18:59I think it's going to be a close game.
19:00Like I said, I think Washington does match up pretty well on that side of the ball.
19:05And then the question becomes, presuming Mariota is going to get the start again this week, it's, you know, can
19:11he string together multiple good games and have that kind of performance?
19:17That tends to be the limiting factor for these backup quarterbacks that have to start.
19:21They're capable of individual games where they look really good.
19:24But keeping it going for a stretch is what tends to be the limiting factor.
19:28So I think that side of the ball is probably going to determine how the game goes.
19:33For sure.
19:34Hey, Sam, thanks for making time for us, dude.
19:35Appreciate you.
19:37Anytime, guys.
19:38Take it easy.
19:38All right.
19:39Sam Monson, formerly Pro Football Focus, now has his own podcast, Check the Mic podcast.
19:45We're going to run through some other injury updates, check in around the NFL.
19:49It's B. Mitch Finley.
19:50Nobody go anywhere.