- 2 days ago
Professional sports bettor for the Hammer Betting Network, Rob Pizzola, makes his highly anticipated return to the show with his picks for the Week 1 NFL slate.
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00:00Well, this is very exciting. Crowder Rob Pizzola, a professional sports better based in the lovely
00:07nation of Canada. He's also the founder of the hammer betting network. You can catch him hosting
00:14forward progress, their NFL betting show on YouTube and all other major podcast platforms
00:20forward progress dives deep into weekly matchups, betting markets, and analysis
00:25from some of the sharpest minds in the industry. I always remind you as well,
00:31remind you as well, follow Rob on Twitter at Rob Pizzola. And it is my great pleasure
00:39for the first time this season. Say hello, Rob. Hello, Mark. So nice to hear
00:47the dulcet tones of one Rob Pizzola from the great nation of Canada. Are you deep in it?
00:55Are you like, uh, just overwhelmed with information and research and studying and
01:02questions and content? Like, are you just, uh, overpowered by the beginning of football season?
01:09Yes, absolutely. Uh, this week has been very stressful for me. A lot got a lot going on.
01:14I dropped my first F bomb today to player news, which is, uh, what is miles Garrett, not practicing.
01:20And I already had bet on the Browns, but it looks like that's going to be okay. That's when,
01:24you know, you're in full swing, when you see news come across your computer screen and, uh,
01:29you're yelling at the computer. So that's how I know it's truly football season, but it's good to
01:33be back. Uh, I'm a Cowboys fan. So, uh, I, you know, I'm looking forward to tonight's game before
01:39we start, uh, maybe not so much by the end of it, but I am pretty excited.
01:43And how do you do like the bears with, uh, with Ben Johnson, the, you know, the, the Raiders
01:49with now Pete Carroll, like, how do you, how do you, how do you figure out those lines when it's
01:54a new coach and both teams have a new quarterback? Yeah. So that's a great question. It's actually
01:59something that I've really struggled with, uh, as a football better for a long time. So historically
02:03speaking, uh, I tend to get better as the year goes on. I'm very aware of what my limitations
02:08are. I'm not a pro football scout or anything like that. I'm more of a, a numbers guy data
02:13driven. So for, for situations like those crowded, I have to just make educated guesses on what
02:18I think is going to happen. And I tend to, let's say not bet those games too hard in the
02:23early going of the year, just because, uh, you know, I, again, it's just guesswork on
02:28my part. And it's like, is my guess going to be better than other betters who are betting
02:32into market? I'm willing to admit where I have limitations, but that doesn't mean I'm not
02:36a fan and I don't have opinions. Uh, you know, I don't think JJ McCarthy will be a good NFL
02:42pro, but I'm willing to swallow that. If he plays, you know, some good games in the early
02:48going, you gotta, you gotta just, you know, take the L and move on. So there are certain
02:52things I'll, where I'll stick my feet, you know, in the sand, I'll say, I think this is
02:56wrong. This is right. I have a different opinion on this player, but as the year goes on, once
03:02data starts to come in, I'll kind of just transform my opinions based off of that data.
03:06Well, let's start with tonight's game. We've got Eagles and Cowboys and see, I'm, I, I'm
03:14very curious to hear what you have to say, because this seems like one of those games
03:18where you go, yeah, Eagles, I mean, they should beat them by double digit points. There's no
03:21way I can lose this bet. And then that's always the bet that I end up at the end going, how
03:27did I lose this bet? This, this didn't make any sense. So Eagles on the hard rock app are
03:33eight and a half point favorites over the Cowboys. It's in Philly. What's your take on
03:38this game? Yeah, I think the, the price is fair on the side. I'm using the Eagles and
03:42some survivor tonight. So that's going to be great. You know, Cowboys fan cheering for
03:47the Eagles to win the game. That's always fun. But you know, this line moved out to
03:51eight and a half on the, on the Micah Parsons deal. And you know, he makes a pretty significant
03:55difference for that Dallas defense. You look at, at the on-off splits when he's been off
03:59the field, they've been one of the worst five defenses in the league. When he's been
04:02on, they generate pressure at basically a top 10 rate and they just don't have a replacement
04:07player. Now I do think there is a path for Dallas to keep it close and be competitive.
04:12They, they have to live in the quick game. They have to attack the middle of the field
04:16with CD lamb, Jake Ferguson, like short throws on schedule, keep the sticks moving, avoid these
04:22long developing, you know, plays against a very good Eagles front. The problem is on the
04:29other side, the Cowboys rush defense was horrendous last year, one of the worst in the entire
04:35league. And that's basically the bread and butter of the Eagles, right? Especially on
04:38early downs. So they're going to have to find some way to stop that run. I don't think it's
04:44necessarily going to happen. I think Philly's path is very straightforward, but I could see
04:49this being a game that's lower scoring than people think. I think the, the, the feeling
04:53here is that Philly's just going to cakewalk them. They're going to score on every single
04:56drive. But the way I see this playing out is long drives, fewer explosive plays, you know,
05:03Philly's that team, especially when they get out to a lead, they'll run the ball down your throat
05:07and they'll bleed clock. That's kind of what they they've done for a while now. I'm a little bit
05:12scared that maybe they take some shots on the outside against Dallas's corners, like double moves
05:17against guys like Trayvon Diggs, Deron Bland, who liked to jump routes. That's where your explosive
05:22plays could come. But aside from that, I think Dallas is going to want to move the ball
05:26methodically quickly. Eagles will run it. I think 47 and a half as a total is a tad too high.
05:32You know, if you're not comfortable betting the first game of the year, you don't have to do it.
05:36But if I'm doing anything here, I'm betting the under. All right. Do you, and for people who are
05:41new to the show, you love the under Crowder, right? How was that? No, I took the over on this one.
05:46You took the over. I thought you liked the under. Like Rob said, I was like, oh, the Eagles are going to
05:50score 30 by themselves. So yeah, Dallas throws up 17. We're good to go. Yeah. It's the game state
05:57that could be a problem. I think if the Eagles get out to a big lead in the early going, you will see
06:02them suck the life out of this game. I think for the over to have a chance here, you want Dallas to
06:07remain competitive early because you want the Eagles to have to continue to press over the course of the
06:12game and maybe Dallas can do it. I mean, they got a great one, two punch at receiver. I mean,
06:17the Eagles cornerbacks, they're like top heavy. They don't have a lot of depth there. So there
06:22are opportunities, but ultimately I think this is a game that Eagles probably win by close to a
06:28touchdown. And, um, you know, I'm just hoping my Cowboys can stay competitive. Rob, I was telling
06:34Hock and Crowder yesterday, I'm not as down on the Cowboys as most people. I'm not saying they're
06:38on the level of the Eagles, but I think, I don't know, game one, there, there tends to be some
06:42randomness at times with these games just because it's the first game. And I understand everybody's
06:47right now down on the Cowboys because they traded Micah for good reason, but I'm not as down on this
06:52team. I don't think there are seven and 10 football team like they were a year ago. I think they can be
06:56a playoff team again, not the Eagles, but they're probably the second best team in that. All right.
07:01Maybe not the second, but the third best team in that division. Yeah. Yeah. I think one thing that,
07:06that the casual fan doesn't realize is that offense is more sticky than defense. So when I,
07:11what I mean by that is from year to year, if you, if you plot all of the teams from last year that
07:17were good offensively or historically have been, so the Cowboys have been very good offensively when
07:21Dak is their quarterback, that tends to replicate itself year after year, after year, you tend to
07:27see more consistency from good offenses. Whereas defense is more random, a team that was the best
07:32defense in the league a year ago. I mean, there's significant drop-offs. We saw that with the Jets last
07:38year, as an example, two years ago, the Jets defense was lights out last year. They were barely above
07:42average. So offense is very sticky. I think if the Cowboys can have a top five offensive unit this
07:48year, and that's not without question that they could easily compete in the NFC. Are they a Super
07:53Bowl contender? I don't think so, but they could, they could be better than people think.
07:58Rob Pizzola. How about tomorrow night? KC is a three point favorite over the Chargers. It's in
08:06Brazil. Our friend Arande Gadsden, his son Arande Gadsden II, is a tight end, first year tight end
08:13for the Chargers. So we're rooting for them. What do you think tomorrow night? Yeah. So I kind of
08:18lean KC in this game. I'm very curious to see whether KC gets back to the form of a couple years
08:24ago on offense, or if this is just going to be the offense going forwards for them. And I think it
08:28might be a slog for them out of the gate with Rasheed Rice suspended for them. But that injury to
08:35Rayshon Slater for the Chargers in preseason is really going to affect them. Like Joe Alt will
08:41be fine moving over to left tackle, but that's going to create an issue for them at right tackle.
08:46And that's a tough way to open because Kansas City can create pressure without living on heavy
08:52blitzes. And that really shortens Justin Herbert's routes. It compresses the passing game for them a
08:58little bit more. I don't love the matchup for the Chargers offense. I know there's some people
09:03really leaning into the Chargers in this game because Herbert has actually been as an underdog
09:07in his career. Very good. I don't know what the ATS numbers are, but he finds a way to stay in these
09:12types of games. But ultimately, KC minus three feels slightly short to me. I mean, I'm closer to three
09:19and a half than I am three. It's a tough one. Again, this is this is week one. I'm very much on a
09:27wait and see approach for a lot of these games, but I would only bet the Chiefs in this one.
09:31Fair enough. And let's know. I was gonna ask, do coaches move your number with Harbaugh knowing
09:37what he did with the 49ers? And now he's there supposed to be the Herbert whisperer.
09:42Well, absolutely. So coaching makes it makes a huge difference. But I would argue that they have
09:48the worst coach in this game as well. Right. And if you're looking at extra preparation, especially
09:53guy like Andy Reid has benefited from extra preparation pretty much more than any coach in
09:58the history of the NFL, they've been very good off of bye weeks, very good in this types of
10:02situation early on in the year as well. So definitely it matters for scheme, how that's
10:08going to play into their, you know, their opponents strengths and weaknesses and stuff like
10:12that. Harbaugh to me, he still represents a lot of like the old school mentality in the
10:17league, which could be good and bad. Sometimes you just need to lean into the running game and
10:21good defense and play field position. But against teams like the Chiefs, that might actually
10:26come back to bite you. All right, let's get to the one that we're all interested in
10:31Miami Dolphins and the Indianapolis Colts Sunday one o'clock in Indy and the Dolphins are one
10:41point underdogs, which I think is kind of right for this line. So there's a prop angle I like
10:48in this game, which I'll get to, but really quickly. Oh, I like a prop as well. I can't wait
10:53to share it with you. Well, these teams have what I would consider to be wide variants,
10:57right? Miami could be very bad or very good, depending on the health of their quarterback.
11:02If the offensive line holds up, I mean, really their, their secondary, especially at corner
11:07looks very, very shaky going into this year. I don't know how much that hurts them against
11:12the Colts. Daniel Jones is not like this prolific passer by any stretch of the imagination,
11:17but I actually oddly feel like Daniel Jones could have a very good year in a Shane Steichen
11:23offense. And the fact that Steichen went to Daniel Jones pretty much to save his job. I mean, I think
11:30he, I think he, his job is on the line this year. And he said, Daniel Jones gives me a better chance
11:34to win than Anthony Richardson. I think tells you a lot about maybe how much he's down on Anthony
11:39Richardson, but also possibly how much he believes that Daniel Jones could fit this offense a lot more.
11:44I think this is a really challenging game to handicap because we haven't seen Daniel Jones
11:48in this offense, aside from some limited preseason. I don't know if Miami's offensive front is going
11:54to hold up. So I think there's a very wide range of outcomes here. What I do know is that Miami
12:00plays the speed game. They have done this for years on offense. It's a lot of yards after catch,
12:06get the ball out of Tua's hands very quickly. And one thing the Colts really struggled with last year
12:11was defending running backs out of the backfield. They were one of the worst teams in the league
12:16in terms of tackling running backs out of the backfield and also just leaving them open,
12:20allowing targets to them. So I think Devon Achan here in the receiving game is really,
12:27really live to put up some big numbers, receptions, receiving yards over. If your sports books offer
12:32alternate overs, that's something I would take a look at as well, because Colts struggled a lot
12:38with tackling these guys out of the backfield last year. And I think his speed, they could set up a
12:43screen for him, even swing passes, which he can turn into explosive plays. So that's the guy I'm
12:48targeting in this game for overs. I think that would be a pretty solid look this weekend.
12:53Okay. That's good info. What do you think of this parlay that I put in? Because you mentioned the
13:00corners. I parlayed the two corners, the starting corners for the Dolphins are Jack Jones and Storm
13:06Duck. Yeah. I parlayed Jones and Duck to both have pick sixes Sunday. Well, okay. I can't give
13:16you an assessment on your parlay until you tell me the price. Plus $250,000. I was going to say,
13:22if this is not a billion to one, I think you've made a bad bet. Admittedly, I only bet $5 to win a
13:30little over 12 grand. Yeah. Well, I will say this. Daniel Jones has a history of turning the ball
13:35over. Most of the time it is fumbles though. He is, he's known to not feel pressure. That's
13:41typically what, what's been the issue for him, especially back in the day with the giants, but
13:46never say never bad quarterback on the other side, it could happen. I don't think you're getting a true
13:51fair price on that mark, but I don't think that's ever stopped you when you're making a bet. I don't
13:55think price even comes into consideration. You want to tail me on that? I will not tail you on
14:00that. If you'd like me to tell you I did, so you feel better about yourself, I can do that.
14:06I can tell you. No, I just, I wanted you to share in the excitement when one of them grabs a pick six
14:11in the first quarter. And then, uh, you know, would you, would you sell it if they offered me a
14:15thousand dollars on a $12,000 payoff? Would you, is there a point where you'd sell that? No,
14:22no, no, I would. I mean, here's the thing. If you're going to do that, then you might as well
14:27just bet them individually. Fair enough. Right. There's no sense in betting them as a parlay if
14:32you're going to sell it at the end, but I'll pray for you when, uh, Rasul Douglas and Jason Marshall
14:37each record pick sixes in the game. I also bet dolphins minus 10. Yeah. I, I, I, I, this is one of
14:45the games where I don't mind that at all. I, I, again, you, when you're betting the alternate lines,
14:50you want to pick games where there's a lot of variance. And I don't think any, like there's
14:54certain teams in the league where you could say there's probably not a lot of variance on that
14:59team. Uh, you know, Baltimore would be one, they're pretty consistent year to year. You know what
15:03you're getting out of them. There's a lot of teams that have a lot of fluidity. Neither of these teams
15:07does. You have one with a quarterback returning from injury. Didn't play a lot last year with weapons
15:13that are kind of getting old, like number one weapon and Tyree kill getting older defense that offers a
15:18lot of volatility. Same with the Colts, new quarterback. So this is a game where I don't
15:23mind taking shots like that at all. Two of rushing overs at one and a half. It opened at two and a
15:28half. You want to jump on that? The sharps are betting it down. The sharps are betting it down.
15:33You know what? I will say credit to you, Mark. You did identify this when he came back from
15:37concussion last year, but you said he's probably still going to run if given the opportunities,
15:41he's that type of guy. And, and he did in those situations. So, uh, I hope you get, I mean,
15:48you're going to get the dolphins win maybe though, and have him kneel down three times at the end of
15:52the game and it's going to kill you rushing over. Yeah.
15:56Rob, Rob, the disrespect for the dolphins, is it legitimate from the outside looking and we're down
16:02here and you know, Hawk Hawk is the ultimate optimist, but people do not think the dolphins get
16:09the double digit wins. They do not think 10 and seven is a thing. And we saw something where they
16:13had two as like the 28th best quarterback in the, in the league. Orting news has them as the 29th
16:19best team in the league. Is the, is, is the, is, is it hate or is it legit concern?
16:27I think it's a, I think it's concern. I really do. I listen, there there's people who think to was
16:33just like a system guy. He gets the ball out of his hands quickly. Anyone can do that. I'm not sure I
16:38necessarily agree, but I don't think too, as a great quarterback by any stretch of the imagination,
16:42I definitely think the holes in the secondary are a legitimate concern, but I will say there are
16:49teams like new England is pretty hyped this year for a team that's done nothing right. Like they're
16:54basically hyped off of everyone expecting Drake may to take a step forwards and everyone expecting
17:00Mike Vrabel to be this great coach that he's been out of the league for a while now. And you know,
17:06personally, I think he's kind of overrated as a head coach as well. So I think a lot of that is
17:10coming from the fact that people expect new England to take this step up. And because of that, Miami's
17:16the team taking a step back. I'm not sure that I buy that just yet, but the dolphins, they, they have
17:22that secondary is really concerning for me heading into the year. This is a passing league now and sure
17:27your front, your front seven on defense, chop Robinson, you know, Zach Seeler, um, Bradley Chubb.
17:34These are good players that can alleviate some of that with pass rush, but at some point or another,
17:40you need DBs to make plays. And I think they're really lacking there.
17:44Your wife buy you that shirt, Rob. This is my own man. I buy all my own clothes.
17:50This is, this is style. I like that. This is what it looks. This is what style looks like right
17:54here. I like that shirt. Solana, what are you wearing? I mean, that's terrible.
17:57So you was a Uruguay track suit, a Uruguay quarter zip and the last place tonight, Rob,
18:03come on. You couldn't pay me $10,000 to wear that on.
18:11A quarter zip. Rob Pizzola, professional sports better based in the lovely nation of Canada.
18:16He's the founder of the hammer betting network. Catch him hosting forward progress. Their NFL
18:21betting show on YouTube and other major podcast platforms forward progress dives deep into weekly
18:28matchups, betting markets, and analysis from some of the sharpest minds in the industry.
18:33Follow him on Twitter at Rob Pizzola. He likes the under in tonight's game. He leans Casey tomorrow
18:40and he loves the Devon H and receiving overs for dolphins Colts on Sunday. We always appreciate
18:48your time, Rob. Thank you. All right, guys. Enjoy the games this week.
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