00:10Hello and good evening. I'm Melissa Idris. Welcome to Consider This.
00:14This is the show where we want you to consider and reconsider what you know of the news of the
00:18day.
00:18Former Prime Minister Najib Razak has been granted a conditional pardon,
00:22allowing him to serve the remainder of his SRC International sentence under house arrest.
00:28This is of course subject to a RM50 million payment and other conditions.
00:32So what does this decision mean for Malaysia's politics and institutions?
00:38And how should the public interpret or understand what happens next?
00:43Joining me on the show now is Ibrahim Sufyan, or more affectionately known as Ben.
00:47He's the Programmes Director at Merdeka Centre.
00:49Ben, thank you so much for joining me on the show today.
00:52What exactly, let's start with the kind of the landscape, the political landscape.
00:56What exactly does the conditional pardon for Najib Razak change about the political landscape around him currently?
01:05Well, thanks for having me on.
01:07The conditional pardon that he obtained on the 18th of September significantly changes Najib Razak's position.
01:16Although it doesn't really erase his legal liabilities.
01:20It does permit him to serve the remainder of his sentence under the SRC case at home until the sentence
01:29concludes sometime in August 2028.
01:33And it's conditional upon the payment of a RM50 million fine.
01:37This one, however, does not affect or cover his other case under the 1MDB conviction where it is still undergoing
01:48the appeals process.
01:49I think politically speaking, the pardon does improve Najib's visibility.
01:57It changes him from being an imprisoned former leader to someone that is more visible.
02:04Around him, UMNO supporters can actually organize, can mobilize and rally towards.
02:10And I think if you look at how things have transpired in the last few days, UMNO's response to organize
02:19a fundraising campaign to help cover the cost of his fine does show that he continues to retain a reasonable
02:29degree of support judging by the speed with which the funds were collected.
02:35You know, so I think this is a kind of gauge how much traction he continues to have and how
02:41much people within UMNO itself are still loyal to him.
02:47Well, fundraising aside, the donations aside, that's the money that's been raised.
02:51What's your assessment, Ben, of how influential Najib Razak is in 2026 after everything that's happened?
02:59How influential is the man really?
03:03Although he's no longer exercising any kind of formal organizational authority, he no longer is an office bearer inside UMNO,
03:12he continues to have, I think, significant influence inside the party, largely because many members of the grassroots, mid-level
03:21leadership of the party rose up the ranks during the time when he was president of the party.
03:27And if we look at how people have continued to champion for his cause in the several UMNO annual assembly
03:35meetings, we know that he continues to have a large degree of support within the party itself.
03:42And so I think, you know, other leaders inside the party cannot walk away from the issue, they continue to
03:49be able, have to continue to fight for him in order for them to remain relevant inside the party as
03:55well.
03:56So his, I think, influence is not command power, more like constituency power, he has support in the rank and
04:03file of the party.
04:04So while he does not control the party machinery, the leaders of the party cannot disregard him because the supporters
04:12are very emotionally invested in Najib himself.
04:15I think if you look at the wider public, I think he is a more polarized figure within the traditional
04:21UMNO base amongst Malay voters, you know, sort of conservative, a bit more rural areas, he continues to be fairly
04:30popular.
04:31I would say nationally, he potentially commands still 40-45% support amongst the Malay electorate, but I would say
04:41nationally is probably under 30% because, you know, other communities, more urban based, middle class and higher Malay voters
04:49probably, you know, don't see him positively.
04:52So very polarizing or rather divisive figure, but very strong within the UMNO base.
04:58Right. So let's talk about that. You mentioned a bit earlier the visibility, right? So maybe under house arrest circumstances,
05:09under a less restricted environment.
05:11Talk to me a little bit about that. Could this house arrest be making a political asset for UMNO or
05:18could his continued association with 1MDB be a political burden for the party?
05:24I think for the vast majority of Malay voters. So let me distinguish that vast majority of Malay voters who
05:30are middle income and lower, I think a lot of people have moved on from the 1MDB issue.
05:37Partly because I think they felt that the justice process had run its course. Najib has already served the sentence
05:43and then they have enormous respect for the king who's granted him the pardon.
05:47You know, a mercy for commuting the sentence to house arrest. But I would say, so as a figure, he
05:59is an asset for UMNO to be able to mobilize the party's supporters.
06:05And I think UMNO probably benefits from that perspective because if you notice in 2018, 2022, UMNO lost a significant
06:15erosion of support.
06:16A lot of people went away and went to Perikatan National and turned their backs on UMNO.
06:23But we think that now some of these supporters are coming back. Partly due to the implosion of Perikatan National
06:29and also to no less extend this Rumah Bangsa initiative by the current leadership of UMNO trying to bring back
06:36all the disaffected wayward elements to the fold.
06:39And so I think UMNO is consolidating and having Najib at house arrest rather than being an imprisoned figure does
06:47add political value to UMNO.
06:50But in terms of overall electoral prospects, I think it's more of a mixed situation because he, well, I mean,
07:01large segments of the public felt that, you know, he was guilty of what had been found by the court.
07:06And we would like to see him serve his term there. At the same time, going by how UMNO is
07:12promoting itself, championing his cause and also organizing the fundraising, it also conveys the image that UMNO is not repentant
07:22and UMNO has not changed his colors to the voters and continues to idolize a leader that has been found
07:29guilty of public finance misappropriation.
07:32So it's problematic, I would say, to the wider public and also UMNO's broader electoral appeal.
07:42All right. Well, let's talk about how this might impact Pakatan Harapan.
07:47Could this become a political liability for Anwar Ibrahim even if, you know, the government had no hand in this?
07:54This is not a decision made by the government. This was His Majesty's clemency and his entire royal prerogative to
08:00do so.
08:02How might that impact Pakatan Harapan?
08:05I think, I mean, right now, if you're looking at what has transpired over the last several days, it does
08:12appear that Pakatan Harapan supporters are not happy with the outcome.
08:19And I think some of them are taking it out on the political leadership of Pakatan Harapan to the extent
08:27that DAP leader, Anthony Lok, has decided to resign his cabinet position.
08:32So, broader members of the public feels that this government had a hand in the decision and enabled, you know,
08:45Najib to be released.
08:47Not a lot of people actually understand how things work.
08:50Not a lot of people also understand the extent to which the king has prerogative over topics like this.
08:57And so, it's quite easy for Pakatan Harapan supporters, particularly those that are already disappointed on a number of different
09:07topics,
09:07to say that, look, this is yet another situation where Pakatan Harapan has reneged on the promise to fight against
09:17corruption and put those in the wrong, in their right place.
09:21So, you have this situation. Also, not helping is that they have critics, you know, former members that have joined
09:27other political parties from their own party, like Bersama, that are taking pot shots at the government.
09:33So, is it too early then, Ben, to talk about the electoral consequences that may come up from this?
09:38I think, you know, we can start to speculate in terms of where things will flow.
09:42So, I think number one on the side of Barisan National, specifically UMNO, I think internal cohesion probably will improve.
09:52So, a lot of people who have left probably will come back.
09:56And this, I think, includes some people who were sidelined, you know, after 2022, 2018, probably they will come back.
10:05But, at the same time, I think having Najib out there probably will breathe new life to the prospects of
10:12cooperation with PAS.
10:13I think if you look at over the last few days, the PAS Secretary General has officially congratulated Najib.
10:19And so, they welcome him.
10:21And so, we look that they are really trying to find a way to make their Muafakat 2.0 Perpaduan
10:28Umar thing really take off.
10:30And I would say that within, you know, the leadership of UMNO, I would say that perhaps they might find
10:39an ally in Najib to, you know, ensure greater cooperation with the party.
10:46So, you have that.
10:47And that, I think, is going to tremendously affect the electoral outcome.
10:51The reason being, you know, a combined UMNO-PAS will have superlative majority within the Malay ground.
11:00And there are chances of grabbing seats in the general election will become much, much higher than ever before.
11:09Right.
11:09Well, okay.
11:10So, then, that makes me curious, Ben.
11:12If, you know, you were looking at this from a purely public opinion lens, what is it that you, Merdeka
11:20Center, would want to measure now that you maybe did not think to or could not have measured before this
11:27decision, before the conditional pardon was announced?
11:30Well, I think, you know, thinking about this, a number of topics come to mind.
11:35And number one would be the constitutional right to grant pardon for this specific situation, whether or not, you know,
11:43really one should have such a leeway for such a big case.
11:47And whether or not this, you know, actually diminishes the country's image or reputation abroad.
11:54Number two, I think, the other things that could probably be looked at would be the public confidence in the
12:01rule of law, equality before the law.
12:03Because I think one of the threats of discussion that we noticed has been, you know, how high level offenders
12:12can be pardoned, but small time offenders, you know, get jail time.
12:19You know, so people are saying that if you steal the duit masjid, you get maybe a long time in
12:25jail.
12:25But if you steal billions of bucks, you might get a pardon, anti-corruption credibility and also the fairness of
12:33sentencing.
12:34And then beyond this, I think we definitely will continue to track how people's favorability has changed towards Najib himself,
12:44UMNO, Barisan, PH, Anwar and DAP separately.
12:49Especially, especially among Malaysian voters, UMNO supporters and PH supporters, as well as I would say the critical element for
12:57the upcoming election will be young voters, people voting for the first time.
13:01Definitely.
13:02Ben, it's always a pleasure speaking with you.
13:04Thank you so much for giving us your time.
13:06I appreciate you.
13:07That was Ibrahim Sufian from Merdeka Center.
13:09We're going to take a quick break here on Consider This.
13:11We'll be back with more.
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