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"I Think the Patriots Are Going to Win Sunday" Bet Insider Nick Kostos LIVE! GHS
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00:00Our pal Nick Costos. Good morning, Nick. What's going on, guys? How we doing? Happy Friday. Yes.
00:05Thank goodness it's here. And thank goodness we can remove the potentially remove the pain and
00:11misery of that week one loss for the Patriots with a win on Sunday. Yeah. And I think the Patriots
00:17are going to win on Sunday. I don't know if they're going to cover the four and a half or
00:21the five point spread against the Pittsburgh Steelers. But guys, I watched every play of
00:25the Steelers Falcons game last weekend. Not something I'm proud to admit, but I bet
00:30Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh was my survivor play in all the survivor pools I'm in. So
00:34I was very much tuned into that game. The Steelers did not play well in that game. And if not
00:38for a couple Nick Folk missed field goals, Atlanta was very much in that game. And TJ Watt had
00:44a great pick six. That's the margin of victory, 20 to 13. Now, I think if you wanted to build
00:49like a case for the Steelers here, you could say, well, DK Metcalf dropped like five passes
00:53in the game, you maybe would have gone differently if he holds onto the ball. Okay. Like here's
00:57Christian Gonzalez on DK Metcalf this week. And like JSN got his last week against the
01:02Patriots. Not when Christian Gonzalez was covering him. So I do think this sets up even without
01:07AJ Brown with Romeo Dobbs being terrible last week. I do think this sets up for the Patriots
01:12to win. I don't know about cover the spread, but I do think New England will win their first
01:16game of the season. Nick, let me ask this over on the, because I'm leaning towards the under
01:21in this game. Let me see what the number is at for 40. It says 41 and a half 40.
01:28It's
01:28really low and it's been bet down over the course of the week. Maybe a slight lean for
01:33me towards the over in the game. Like I think the Patriots can score on the Steelers defense
01:38and on the flip side, it's just can Pittsburgh get enough out of the non Metcalf receivers or
01:44who Christian Gonzalez is not on Michael Pittman, Roman Wilson, the tight ends, Jeremy
01:49Bernard. I think probably yes, because they're going to throw the ball a ton with Mike McCarthy
01:53there. So I think the Steelers will be able to put some points on the board. Patriots
01:57as well, even without AJ Brown, I won't be betting it, Wiggy, but I would bet the over
02:01if I had to do something right now. It's only I, every time I bring it up, I hear it's
02:06only
02:07two weeks, but we've been talking about all morning. How good does Josh Allen look? Last
02:12night looked unbelievable. Yeah, he's probably the best quarterback in the league right
02:17now, until we see Mahomes fully recover from the injury. He might be the best football
02:22player in the league, like regardless of position, like he's, he's unreal. Like five touchdowns
02:27last night, he shredded an awesome Houston Texans defense in week one. Like he's great.
02:32But you know, look, I'm on the air at 9am in 23 minutes with my, like you said, national
02:36radio show. And what I'm going to say in the first segment of the show, yes, Mike, thank
02:40you.
02:40So brag of the week, brag of the week, yeah, that right in there. Well, seamless.
02:46Well, well, can I ask you this? Like, yes, I am bragging. So I'm not denying that. But
02:49like, what, what should I say instead? Nothing. I love it. Like I, I, I am hosting a national
02:55radio show and it is the truth. That is true. That is going to happen. You could say this
03:00is a national radio show heard across the country on Sirius 97. You know what? That is, that
03:04is fair. I would say technically you guys are more of a local show on national, which is
03:08not an insult. It sounds kind of like an insult. Yours is more of a niche show nationally.
03:13It's not exactly, it's more of a betting show. Well, it's not more of a betting show. So
03:17you don't know what you're talking about. Do you think that this regional show got you
03:20to your national show? Well, I think that, you know, the, the exposure that I've had on
03:25the show is not hurt. I would say that I would say that it has helped. Yes, absolutely.
03:29So you're going to discuss what to start the show. So I think the thing with Buffalo is for
03:34as good as Josh Allen has played and he has been unbelievable, right? None of this actually
03:38really matters. I mean, it does because you want to win games and you want to play well,
03:42but like, we're going to get to January and if Josh Allen, you know, urinates down his
03:46leg again, like he did in the Denver game, or if they have another close playoff loss,
03:50like no one's going to care about any of this. So like, yes, he's probably the best football
03:54player in the league until we see more from the homes this year, but he's been playing
03:58at this level for a lot. This idea that like Josh Allen's taking the step forward
04:02these first two games, he's been awesome for a long time. So like, none of this is
04:06surprising. It's just when we get to January, can they put it together? Can they get over
04:11the hump and at least get to the Super Bowl? Because like, let's be honest about this.
04:15You know, for the, like, let's use the Patriots as an example. Like, let's say, and this is
04:19not the outcome that anyone wants for, if you're a Patriots fan, if the Patriots make it
04:23to the divisional round and let's say they go on the road to Baltimore and lose a really
04:27close game, but Drake may play as well. Like, it's not a disaster. The season is
04:31not a disaster if that happens. Like, you can use that and you can build and have
04:35positive momentum moving forward. And I think the rhetoric in the national media
04:40is going to be, like, we're going to really like the Patriots heading into next
04:43year. The Bills and the Rams are the only two teams, I feel like, that have this, the
04:47season is an outright disaster unless you win the Super Bowl. Those are the only two
04:51teams I think we can say that about. And the difference between the Rams and the
04:54Bills is that Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford have won one already, and the Bills
04:58haven't. So I think the pressure is even more on Buffalo here.
05:01So, like, all of this is great. Like, they're probably going to win the AFC East.
05:05Josh Allen's the favorite to win MVP. No one, like, I love, like, the big take
05:10today is Josh Allen's awesome. Like, no bleep. Like, we all know that already, that
05:15he's great. What's changed? He was awesome last year. And then they get to the
05:18playoffs and they lose. So maybe Joe Brady, things will be different with the new
05:22head coach. We'll see. But, you know, I think that when we get to January, that will
05:27really tell the tale on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
05:29All right, Nick. So I got a C note here, but there's two games and I don't know where
05:33to lay the bet. Cincinnati at Houston, Jacksonville at Denver. Where should I put
05:38my money? So the Cincinnati-Houston game is interesting, right? Because I don't
05:42think Nico Collins is playing, and he's Houston's best receiver. He has a
05:46hamstring injury. They're saying it's not serious. There's no way they're playing
05:49him in week two. So the Texans are going to be trotting out, because remember, it's
05:53not just Nico Collins. Jaden Higgins, who is going to be their number two
05:56receiver, tore his ACL. He's out for the season. So it's going to be like Xavier
06:00Hutchinson and Jalen Noel catching passes from C.J. Stroud and tight end Dalton
06:04Schultz. On the flip side for the Bengals, like Joe Burrow has a back injury. Like he
06:09didn't practice on Wednesday, limited practice yesterday. Ian Rappaport said
06:13about 20 minutes ago on ESPN that Burrow is going to start this weekend. Like his
06:17back's hurt. Like he's already injured. Like we're one game into the season. And, you
06:22know, the Bengals offensive line held up against Tampa's defensive line last
06:25week. I don't know if that's happening this week against Will Anderson and
06:28Daniel Hunter. And the Bengals defense looked better last week. Also, Baker
06:32Mayfield kept putting the ball on the ground. So I would say Houston for me in
06:36that game. Not a strong feeling, but I would take the Texans. Jaguars Broncos is a
06:40really fun game, because I think if you're the type of person that believes week
06:45one can be a liar, then you want to take the Broncos in this game as a small home
06:49favorite, right? The Broncos horrible on Monday night. The Jaguars basically played
06:53a fake game against the Browns where if that's Madden, you seem to end like
06:56midway through the second quarter. So maybe people would want to take the
06:59Denver Broncos. Honestly, I feel like the Jaguars are better. And I felt that way
07:04coming into the year. I don't think Bo Nix is very good. Trevor Lawrence is on a
07:08heater. And I think, you know, it might not take that long for all of us to say that
07:13Liam Cohen, the Jaguars head coach, belongs in the McVay, Shanahan, Reed, Ben
07:18Johnson class. I'll take the Jaguars to win the game outright. Nick, I want to
07:22talk about your most watchable game for week two, Vikings-Bears. I like to support
07:26wherever you go, you know, that MGM. But when you look at that game in
07:31particular, you say... Unlike Curtis, who likes to take shots at guests that come on
07:34his show. It's technically Greg's show. Well, it's all of your shows. It's everybody's.
07:41Yeah, it's everybody. It's a group effort. You all work on the show. Greg Hill and friends.
07:45Wiggy, it's your show, right? And it's Courtney's show. Yes, Greg's name is on
07:48the show. It's not unfair to say that, right? It's an entirely great show. But you said
07:52that you're going to have the Bears at the top of that watchable list for the foreseeable
07:57future. Do you... Is it the best game to bet as well, or just watch? I think it's a
08:01great betting game. I really do. And, you know, I'm always honest with you guys on
08:05the show. Like, if I won all my bets, I would not be doing this interview. Like, I'd be on
08:10the Amalfi Coast right now. I don't. And to be fair, you know, whenever I or anybody says
08:18something like what I'm about to say, chances are we are wrong. What I'm going to say right
08:22now is, I think the betting market's wrong on the Chicago Bears. I think it's wrong. And
08:27chances are, like, I'm going to be wrong. But I'm really convicted. I'm convinced that
08:31I am right about this. So the Bears' offense is obviously unbelievable. 59 points last week.
08:37Ben Johnson could emerge as, like, the greatest offensive mind in the NFL. Caleb Williams seems
08:42to have taken his game to a new level. The offense is great. For as great as the offense
08:47is, the defense is horrible. Like, it's terrible. So when Ben Johnson last week against Carolina,
08:54they're up 21-14 midway through the second quarter. Fourth and one on their own 21. He
08:58goes for it. They don't get it. And everyone melts down. How could he do that? Well, the
09:02answer is because he knows his defense can't stop anybody. And even though they racked up
09:06522 yards of total offense and averaged almost 8 yards per play, the Panthers had 478 yards
09:13of total offense and almost averaged 8 yards per play themselves. So my thesis on the Bears
09:17is basically, this is like Cliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech with Patrick Mahomes. Like, they
09:22could score 48 points and have 500 yards of total offense and lose 51-48. Like, the defense
09:28is terrible. And when they go up against a competent offense, a competent quarterback, a competent
09:33offensive coach, like, they're going to get points scored on them. And Kyler Murray might
09:37start this weekend for Minnesota. Excuse me. We'll find out today if he clears concussion
09:41protocol. Even if he doesn't, Carson Wentz is competent. Kevin O'Connell is supremely
09:46competent. And Ben Johnson knows they have to score to win. I like the over, and I think
09:51the Vikings are going to win the game outright.
09:53Nick, you were right about the Giants being a live dog last year, or last week, so credit
09:58to you. Are the Jets a live dog at home this week against the Packers, or will the Packers
10:03bounce back?
10:04I'm worried about the Packers right now, until Micah Parsons comes back in about week
10:09six, probably against the Cowboys. I just don't think they have that many good players
10:13on the roster. And I've defended Matt LaFleur throughout the years, but all the Packer fans
10:18that want to say, and like, there's really not an argument against it, the team doesn't
10:21have an identity, and when the going gets tough, they fold like a cheap suit. And we saw it
10:26last week against Minnesota. They had that game well in hand, the Packers did. 19-10,
10:31and final score, 39-22. Like, in the blink of an eye. Like, how did that happen? And this
10:36sort of thing happens way too much with Green Bay. Now, you know, Micah Fitzpatrick's going
10:39to miss this game for the Jets in the back end of their defense. Joseph Assign's going to
10:42miss this game, one of their big free agent acquisitions. So it's possible that Jordan
10:46Love can make it happen through the air. I think this Green Bay offensive line is bad.
10:50I don't trust it. I liked the Jets more than most coming into the year. I don't know
10:54if the Jets are going to win, but I did bet the Jets earlier in the week to cover the
10:58spread. Anything over three, plus the points with the New York Jets.
11:01All right, last one. Where are you on LSU Ole Miss tomorrow night?
11:06Yeah, I think the Lane Kiffin stuff is great. He is basically, like, it's funny. Like, he's
11:12funny. Like, I think he's, like, objectively funny. He's, like, making a mockery of everything
11:18that has to do with college football, to the point that the SEC threatened to throw LSU out
11:22of the conference a couple weeks ago before the season opener against Clemson. So, like,
11:26you guys, I don't mean this as an insult, but, you know, the Patriots have had a lot
11:30of chicanery with the injury report of the past. Tom Brady was on the injury report for,
11:33like, eight straight seasons with a shoulder injury listed as probable. So, like, we see
11:37this happen in sports, and Lane's looking for a competitive advantage. But the problem
11:41is, is, right, like, he's the coaching equivalent right now of the boy who cried wolf. No one
11:46believes anything he says. So, a couple nights ago, LSU, if people miss this, I'll try and
11:51summarize it quickly. LSU lists quarterback Sam Levitt for doubtful for Saturday night's
11:57game. Now, doubtful obviously implies that there is a low percentage that he plays in
12:01the game. And that comes out, and nobody believes it. Nobody. Reports come out that
12:07Ole Miss doesn't believe it, where Lane coached, obviously, last year in the last
12:10however many years. The betting market barely moves. So, is this gamesmanship from
12:15Lane Kiffin? Like, what is this? And then the injury report comes out yesterday, and
12:19wouldn't you know it, what a coinkydink, Sam Levitt's upgraded to questionable. And
12:23we're back at LSU minus three where we started. So, it's like, what's happening
12:27here? And the answer has to be, right, Occam's razor dictates the answer to a
12:31question is likely the most obvious one, is that he's screwing with everybody. And
12:36that he's probably grinning like the Cheshire cat sending in this injury report
12:39that Sam Levitt's doubtful. And no one believes him. So, I think he's very
12:44entertaining and great for the sport, as far as the game goes. Trinidad Chambliss
12:48is the better quarterback in the game, and will be an NFL quarterback when it's
12:51all said and done. Ole Miss' quarterback. I just think LSU's better. I want Pete
12:55Golding, Ole Miss' coach, to prove it to me, now that he's coaching with Lane's
12:59team, right? Not after what we saw last year in the playoff. I'll lay the three
13:03points with LSU tomorrow night.
13:04Nick, it is always a pleasure.
13:07Yeah, it is for me as well. Wishing everybody minimal sweats winning bets the
13:11absolute very best of luck. Okay, that is Nick Costos. Yes, he is. And we will be
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