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Betting Insider Nick Kostos Joins! (Burrow) "Probably going to play"
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00:00Curtis's lead this morning was that the Bills have wasted a considerable amount of time with a phenomenal quarterback.
00:08I don't know if you remember that.
00:10Well, yeah, I mean, I think I've been saying that on my show and a lot of shows.
00:14I think I probably had to have said that on this show.
00:16I've been coming on for, what, like three or four seasons now.
00:18Yeah, like this is the truth, and it's why I will never bet Buffalo or Baltimore to win the Super Bowl.
00:24I'm constantly down on those two teams.
00:26Because, and it's only 60 years, right, because the Super Bowl is 60 this year.
00:31In the Super Bowl era, we have literally never seen a coach, and Buffalo and Baltimore are the same because Allen and Lamar are in the same draft in 18, and they have the same head coaches still that were there when they were drafted.
00:42We have never seen coach-quarterback pairings been together this long that have won a Super Bowl that haven't made one already.
00:48They haven't even made it yet.
00:50Like, history is against this happening for these two teams.
00:52Because, like, I disagree that the Bills window is closing, as long as Josh Allen's there, like the window's wide-ass open.
01:00But you have to fire the coach.
01:02You absolutely, and I think he's a good coach.
01:04I don't know if he's a great coach.
01:06He could probably get another job, like in this cycle, if they fired him.
01:09But, yeah, like, they absolutely have to move on from McDermott.
01:12They should have done it two years ago.
01:14And the Ravens need to move on from John Harbaugh also.
01:16People don't want to hear that.
01:17If you were a Ravens fan, who would you rather have, John Harbaugh or now Seahawks head coach Mike McDonald, who was the defensive coordinator?
01:23So I kind of agree and disagree with the Buffalo point.
01:26Is Bill cooked, or is that a potential landing spot for Bill Belichick?
01:31I think Bill is probably cooked as far as the NFL goes at this point.
01:35Probably.
01:36Was it the cheerleading competition for you?
01:38Yeah, it's all just been very weird, obviously.
01:42I'll tell you what, though.
01:43I'll bet you the Falcons regret not bringing Bill in because, you know, they made that whole spectacle out of it, interviewing him twice, giving Raheem Morris the job, and then kind of doing the Seth Wickersham column.
01:56Like, Bill got voted off the island.
01:58Nice job, morons.
01:59Now you don't have your first-round pick, and you're 3-7, and your quarterback has a partially torn ACL.
02:03Like, idiots and disrespectful to Bill.
02:06I agree with you, Nick, on the Falcons one.
02:09And I just, like, I look at Bill, and I know he's coaching UNC, but I just think the NFL owners and, you know, people in that position just look at Bill like, yeah, he was the greatest, but he no longer has his fastball.
02:24People actually look at him like he's a laughingstock.
02:27No, come on.
02:29No, I do think that Greg's right.
02:31Some people are coaching.
02:33In the sense that his girlfriend's 50 years younger or in, like, a coaching sense?
02:37Because, like, that would be asinine.
02:38They tie that all together.
02:40And they shouldn't.
02:41I understand.
02:42And they act like he's so, you know, googly-eyed and distracted that he can't do anything.
02:48Don't even say people.
02:49Like, Curtis.
02:50Curtis ties that all together.
02:52I think it's a fair point.
02:54Like, I'm a Giants fan.
02:55Like, I don't want the Giants to hire.
02:57And I can't believe I'm saying that.
03:00I think he's the best coach ever.
03:01I've said that.
03:02I've defended him on this show many times.
03:03I think he's the best defensive coordinator ever.
03:06But I think we've kind of reached the point where, like, it's probably done.
03:08And that's okay.
03:09Like, he's a first ballot Hall of Famer.
03:12I think he's the best coach ever.
03:13I think it's probably over.
03:14I think teams in the NFL honestly would go, give me Kirk Signetti or Lane Kiffin over Bill Belichick.
03:25I'd take Signetti in a second.
03:26Lane Kiffin, I would not take him.
03:28But, no, no, I know.
03:29But that's the way I think that they look at him now.
03:32It's just as a coach.
03:32Even in college, like, all right, like, you know, like, even in the world of college, some of these jobs that are opening up LSU.
03:39LSU would be like, yeah, we'll take Lane Kiffin all day long over Bill Belichick.
03:43Absolutely.
03:44I mean, college is a different animal, obviously.
03:47You would definitely take Lane over Belichick at the college level.
03:50But I would say even at the pro level, they would still probably look at that.
03:54If, like, say one of those guys wanted a pro job, they would look at whether it's a Lane Kiffin, whether it's a Marcus Freeman, whether it's a Kirk Signetti, they would look and say, you know what?
04:04We would probably that guy over Bill Belichick for the Giants.
04:07I'll tell you what.
04:08If I were the owner of a team, I would not let Marcus Freeman around my wife.
04:11I'll just say that.
04:12And just, you know, I want to break out in hives about saying this, but I think Curtis is right about the Belichick sideshow to a degree.
04:21Because, look, like, it's not even Jordan Hudson, really.
04:24It's if you're going to hire Bill to be the coach of your NFL team in 2025, he is obviously he's a force unto himself.
04:32Like, he envelops your entire organization, whether he wants to or not.
04:37And that's part of the reason why, like, I can understand.
04:39Like, I didn't like the way the Falcons did it.
04:42I feel like they didn't like to screw with him because of 28-3.
04:44That's my honest opinion.
04:45I don't, but, like, he said he was going to play nice in the sandbox and, like, let Terry Fontenot, who's an awful GM, like, make the picks, and he wasn't going to get involved.
04:54But, like, who really believes that, right?
04:56It's because if you hire Bill, you get everything that comes with him.
05:00And I think that's probably why owners are a little reticent now.
05:03Well, you get the kids.
05:05You get, you know, you get both of the sons, probably.
05:07Mike Lombardi.
05:08You get them.
05:09Well, I don't know about Mike Lombardi.
05:11Matt Patricia?
05:12Yeah, yeah.
05:13I don't think you get as much of a sideshow.
05:15If he had gotten that Falcons job, I don't think that Jordan Hudson would have been such a big headline this entire season.
05:22I think because he was at UNC, he got more leeway than if he was with an NHL team.
05:27And guess what?
05:27NFL team, sorry.
05:28You would probably take Matt Patricia the way he's got that Ohio State defense plan.
05:32Matt Patricia is the best coach in college football this season.
05:35Head coach or coordinator, what he's done with that Ohio State defense.
05:38They're unbelievable.
05:39He's done a great job.
05:40Nick, how do you, if you were going to, how do you, how do you wager Pat Spangles with the likelihood or unlikelihood of Joe Burrow playing?
05:49Can I, I'll answer that question.
05:51Can I make a mea culpa for a second?
05:53Yes.
05:53Oh.
05:54Okay.
05:54So I want to give Jermaine Wiggins some credit here.
05:58All right.
05:58What's a mea culpa before you give me credit?
06:00What does that mean?
06:00Well, they factor in together.
06:02I know, but what's that mean?
06:03It means that I'm about to say I was wrong about it.
06:05Okay.
06:06All right.
06:06Cool.
06:07And you were right.
06:07I appreciate it.
06:08So, so I came on the show last week and you asked me a couple of questions about that.
06:12And you made like, like the rap thing, like you could tell the song's bad.
06:14And I was like, so after, after that interview, I thought about it.
06:17Right.
06:17And what I said about the Patriots and cause like my show's on at four o'clock and I'm thinking
06:22like I'm putting my conceptualizing my thoughts for like my open of the show last Friday after
06:26the Patriots beat the Jets.
06:27And the way you kind of like asked me those questions kind of forced me to rethink things
06:32a little bit.
06:33And I actually think I was a little too dismissive of the Patriots and their chances to win the
06:40AFC.
06:40Now, I want to be clear.
06:42I do not think the Patriots can win the Super Bowl because when, if, and when they get there,
06:47like, I think they would lose to the Eagles or the Rams.
06:50It feels like we're a little early for that.
06:52And I know like Brady won in his second year.
06:54I understand it.
06:55I just, I don't think the Patriots would win if they got there, but I actually, Wiggy placed
07:00a couple bets with the thought process being like, and this was before the Chiefs even lost
07:04last week.
07:04You know, if the Patriots are going to be the one seed and they're like the Broncos are
07:08a slight favorite there.
07:09They only have to win two games at home.
07:11Obviously we don't trust Buffalo.
07:13We don't trust Baltimore.
07:15May's better than Nick's May's better than Daniel Jones.
07:17We don't know if Mahomes is going to make it.
07:19So I do think there's an avenue for the Patriots to make it.
07:22The way that I would want to bet that though, and I did bet these is exact Superbowl results.
07:27So I bet Rams to beat the Patriots and Eagles to beat the Patriots at big prices.
07:32What do you get for that?
07:34Well, I can tell you what it is now.
07:35It's going to be a little different than it was last week.
07:38Well, cause everybody, everybody listens to you.
07:40Like it just, well, I don't know if, I don't know if that's, I don't know if that's the
07:43Patriots is 40 to one.
07:46Oh yeah.
07:46Like I got Patriots is 50.
07:47Way better.
07:48Yeah.
07:48I got, I got way better numbers than that.
07:50But, uh, so yeah, but still like, if you think the Patriots can make the Superbowl,
07:54I know no Patriots fan wants to like make a bet where they lose the big game.
07:58I don't know if they can win, but I do think I was a little too dismissive.
08:02So that's my Mia Colba.
08:03Like I actually, the way you said it, like made me think like you were right and I was
08:06wrong.
08:07I appreciate that big dog.
08:08You got it.
08:09As, and as far as a Sunday's game goes fascinating in betting market, right?
08:12So I, I think Joe Burrow is probably going to play.
08:16And the reason without getting too dense into betting, like the betting market always knows
08:20before like stuff becomes public.
08:23I guarantee and promise that to people that that is the case.
08:26So on Wednesday, when Burrow practices, the point spread moves from eight and a half to
08:32seven and a half.
08:33That is not a big move.
08:35It's not like games can land eight, but it's not a huge move.
08:39Now, once we get to seven, which is the second most key number and through seven and through
08:45six, now we're, that is serious money being bet to move a number.
08:49Right.
08:50So, so to me, this is still an in-between number where if Burrow is announced starting
08:55today, I anticipate the line of the game being either Patriots four or four and a half.
09:01That's my guess.
09:02New England four or four and a half.
09:04And different when that happens, Greg, and we get a four, maybe a three and a half, I'm
09:08going to bet New England.
09:10Cincinnati's defense is so bad.
09:13The Patriots are going to score on them.
09:15And here's Burrow coming back three weeks ahead of schedule after an injury that knocked
09:18him out for, for two and a half months.
09:20So I'm going to bet the Patriots.
09:22I'm looking to bet three and a half or four.
09:24Once the news becomes official that Burrow is playing.
09:26All right.
09:26You brought up Kansas city, Indy, Kansas city out there.
09:30Yeah.
09:30So there's an issue with this game.
09:32Uh, Colts quarterback, Daniel Jones on the injury report yesterday was not on Friday's
09:36injury report or Wednesday's, excuse me.
09:38The implication there being that he got hurt yesterday in practice.
09:41Now the NFL insiders who have gotten a ton of things wrong this season, and I'm not
09:46trying to bag on them, just saying they all said afterwards, well, like the Colts are
09:50being cautious, which would imply that Jones is going to practice today and it's going
09:54to be fine.
09:54Like, just make sure if you want to bet this game, like turn notifications on your phone
09:59for the insiders.
10:00It's very easy to do.
10:01See if Daniel Jones practices today, if he does, and he's going to be good to go.
10:05My sense is this game will close Kansas city minus three.
10:09If, and when that happens, I would like to bet the chiefs, but I need more information
10:13before I make that bet.
10:14And yes, I am probably like population one on moron Island right now that I still think
10:20the chiefs are the best team in the conference.
10:21It might just be me hanging on right now.
10:24Oh, you're hanging on to that one, man.
10:26My homes is suction.
10:28I was going to ask you that.
10:29There's like a huge flood and I'm like hanging on to the stop sign, trying not to get dragged
10:33away.
10:33I was, you know, I was going to ask you like, what is it just the Mahomes factor?
10:40Is that the thing that's still like.
10:41That's what it is with you.
10:43You were like that for a while.
10:45Like everybody thinks that come playoffs, he's going to turn it on and he's going to
10:49win the game himself.
10:51I, and I think, and I think you guys in your audience can appreciate that literally more
10:55than any other audience in the country because Brady did it for two decades.
10:58Right now, now the, the one, the one caveat that I'll offer here, as far as Kansas city
11:02goes, and I want to be really fair about this, right?
11:04Like I, I think the chiefs at their best and I can be wrong about this, right?
11:09I think the chiefs at their best are better than the Patriots at their best.
11:12So what I'm, what I'm, what I mean by that is if the, if the Patriots make the Superbowl,
11:17I think they're going to lose.
11:19But if like, let's say the chiefs win out, right?
11:21Or they lose this week and then they win the final.
11:23They go 11 and six or they go 12 and five and they surge into the Superbowl.
11:27Like, yeah, like I'm going to think that they can win.
11:29Now, if you put the chiefs in the NFC right now, where they're five and five, you can't
11:36say that they're the best team.
11:37You can't say that with the Eagles and the Rams, you can throw the Seahawks in there.
11:42You can throw the lions in there.
11:43Like you can't say they're the best team, but with what I view to be a very gettable
11:47AFC, which obviously helps new England.
11:50So I think people can try to understand all the things that I'm saying here.
11:53I would still say that the chiefs are the best team, but look, they can lose on Sunday.
11:57And then like, I'm pulling the plug on that opinion.
11:59Finally.
12:00Okay.
12:00Anybody else want to gain?
12:02No, I think that's a good, I think the recency bias has made so many people just drunk.
12:07Like the Detroit brought up, you're not, not Seattle.
12:11They don't fall into that category, but the chiefs, like all these teams that used to look
12:16really good last year, but now they just, they don't look like Superman no more.
12:21They're walking around here like Clark Kent.
12:23And with the Brady comparison, I understand, but the thing Brady never had a team at five
12:28and five midway through week 10.
12:30That's the difference.
12:31So I'm not saying.
12:32What was their record in the, uh, like we're onto Cincinnati.
12:35That was earlier in the season, right?
12:36Yeah.
12:36They were two and two at that point into that game.
12:38Yeah.
12:38They were two and two, but I think by week 10, they had a pretty good record.
12:43See, I'm not saying Mahomes has lost or anything like that.
12:47I just.
12:47He's not playing well though, to be fair.
12:48And when I say he's not playing well, I mean like he's not playing to his standards.
12:52He's still good, but he's not been like Patrick Mahomes recently.
12:55So I'm not concerned with it.
12:56And like Detroit, like, like Detroit, they're a good football team, but I think we all got
13:02caught up in the Detroit hype from last year.
13:04A hundred percent.
13:04And so like for.
13:06I, I, I, I, I actually, I don't agree with that, but like reasonable minds can disagree.
13:09And I came on the show and I said, you were right last week about something.
13:12I don't know if I fully agree with that, but yeah.
13:14All right, Nick, as always, awesome to hear your voice.
13:19We won't talk to you before.
13:20Well, can I say this to Wiggy?
13:21Can I say this about Detroit quickly?
13:23I think my thing with Detroit is like 53 man roster.
13:27I don't know if it's the back Philly has the best roster.
13:29I think like, that's where I'm kind of with Detroit.
13:32Like they just have, they have more good players than almost every other team.
13:35That's why I don't want to like, I don't want to give in on Detroit just yet.
13:38Problem is they don't have anybody to call plays.
13:40Now it's Dan Campbell that they can't find an offensive coordinator.
13:43Yeah, it's not great.
13:45We won't talk to you before Thanksgiving.
13:47So happy Thanksgiving.
13:48Hope you and the family enjoy it.
13:50All right.
13:50I appreciate it.
13:51Same to you guys as well.
13:52Wishing everybody minimal sweats, winning bets, the absolute very best of luck.
13:55Happy Thanksgiving.
13:56The host of you better, you bet Odyssey sports betting insider, Nick Kostos.
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