00:00It has undoubtedly been an unprecedented hurricane season, and that's once again prompting AccuWeather experts to make changes to this
00:07year's hurricane season forecast.
00:09Minor tweaks, but it's headline-worthy.
00:11Bernie and AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DeSilva discussed changes earlier today.
00:18You and the Long Range team have been looking at this, looking at the hurricane season in its entirety.
00:26What update have we decided to make?
00:28Yeah, we decided to make a pretty big update here.
00:31AccuWeather is now going to be the first known source here to forecast the potential of seeing zero hurricanes during
00:38the rest of the hurricane season.
00:40Of course, we've seen zero so far, and now we're forecasting zero to two hurricanes for the upcoming hurricane season
00:48throughout the rest of the season.
00:49Basically, the whole basin's been pretty much dead in terms of hurricanes.
00:52El Nino, the strong coming on super El Nino, has been the big driver behind that, as well as a
00:59lot of stable air across the main development region, which gave us the confidence to go ahead and forecast the
01:05potential for us to get no hurricanes during this hurricane season, which would be the first time in over 100
01:11years.
01:11Yeah, in fact, let's take a look at the numbers here.
01:13In fact, Alex, it is somewhat unprecedented not to have a hurricane here as we close out the month of
01:20September.
01:21It's something that hasn't happened for over 100 years.
01:24Yeah, it certainly has, and the next record to fall here would be if we get to October 8th.
01:29If we get to October 8th, that'll be the all-time record for the longest into a season that we've
01:35seen without a hurricane, in a season that we've actually had a hurricane.
01:39So the first forming hurricane, the latest first forming hurricane, October 8th, all the way back there in 1905, and
01:47of course we've seen two years in the past, 1907 and 1914, that went the entire season without a hurricane.
01:55Now, those years were pre-satellite, so it's possible that there could have been a hurricane in those years.
02:00So that makes it all that more impressive in the satellite era since 1966, if we are able to go
02:06hurricane-less, that is going to be exceptionally crazy, essentially, that we would be able to see that.
02:13As I've been saying all week, we're nickeling and diming our way to at least near the historical average for
02:20the number of storms, which can be hurricanes and tropical storms.
02:24They've all been tropical storms, but we have had some impacts, and we were worried that there would be at
02:30least a few impacts on the United States this year.
02:32Yeah, at the end of the day, the thing is how many actually impact people, and we've seen three storms
02:39really impact the United States this year.
02:41Of course, Arthur, Bertha, and Edouard.
02:44So, yeah, we haven't seen any hurricanes, but we've seen three storms that have actually brought impacts to the United
02:50States,
02:51and we could still see another one or two, potentially, throughout the rest of the hurricane season,
02:55especially as we go towards the end of the season and look closer to home for some potential development.
03:01If we had to put our finger on the, you know, we always talk about the warm water, we have
03:05that.
03:06Sure, we've had dry air as well, but boy, it's been the wind shear, Alex, and this is something that
03:11you do typically see in an El Nino year.
03:14Yeah, that's the reason why El Ninos typically have lower amounts of hurricanes and tropical storms.
03:19It's that wind shear, especially in the Caribbean and in the main development region,
03:24so that would be the area between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
03:27A lot of wind shear across this area, a little bit lower near Africa, but overall, a lot of wind
03:32shear across this area,
03:34and very stable air, so we're not seeing a lot of showers and thunderstorms that can really develop into tropical
03:40systems.
03:41So that's what's really been preventing us from getting those hurricanes this year,
03:45and it looks like that's going to continue throughout the rest of the season.
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