- 5 minutes ago
This special report examines escalating geopolitical tensions impacting global energy corridors, trade policies, and regional diplomacy. In the Red Sea, Houthi forces have seized the strategic Greater and Lesser Hanish islands near the Bab el Mandeb strait, threatening international shipping lanes and Saudi crude oil export routes. The maritime disruption coincides with drone attacks targeting Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, pushing Brent crude oil prices above 100 dollars per barrel and raising fears of wider supply shocks. Meanwhile, the US House of Representatives advanced the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, which proposes up to 100% tariffs on major purchasers of Russian energy, including India and China. In Germany, US CENTCOM convened a closed-door security conference with Israeli and Arab military commanders to coordinate responses to regional threats. The programme also highlights WHO leadership candidate Dr Hanan Balkhy discussing healthcare challenges in Gaza and introduces Germany's new Ambassador to India, Dr Philipp Ackermann's successor Dr Jasper Wyk.
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00:07can saudi arabia protect its oil lifeline when threats close in from both land and sea and as
00:15houthi sees strategic islands near the babal mandab is west asia quietly moving towards a new military
00:21alignment today two stories that reveal how geography warfare and diplomacy are colliding
00:27one a battle for islands that could threaten global shipping and push oil prices higher the
00:34other a closed-door military conference where america israel and arab states discuss a common
00:40threat iran as saudi arabia faces pressure on its export routes regional militaries are finding new
00:47reasons to coordinate is west asia witnessing the birth of a new security order or is this cooperation
00:54simply a response to a region spiraling out of control hello and welcome you're watching
01:00statecraft with me geeta mohan a major tariff threat is now hanging over india the u.s house of
01:07representatives has cleared a key procedural hurdle for a bill that could give president donald trump
01:12the power to impose hundred percent tariffs on india and other major buyers of russian oil and gas
01:19the measure also extends existing sanctions on iran the linciogram sanctioning russia and iran act of
01:262026 advanced in the house on tuesday evening the vote was tight 214 to 211 two democrats joined
01:35republicans catching house democratic leadership off guard the bill is expected to face a final house vote
01:42on wednesday now if it clears the house it will head to the president's desk the stakes for india are
01:50significant the legislation would allow trump to slap hundred percent tariffs on countries that continue
01:56buying russian energy that includes major russian oil customers such as india and china the senate
02:03already passed the bill on the 7th of august with an overwhelming 86 to 11 vote the legislation targets
02:10russia's leadership its energy sector and the so-called shadow fleet of vessels accused of helping
02:16moscow bypass sanctions washington argues that russia's oil revenues are helping finance its war
02:22in ukraine but opposition is also emerging in the house democratic congressman gregory meeks has
02:29warned that the bill could give trump broad tariff powers without sufficient safeguards the vote comes
02:35as pro-ukraine groups intensify lobbying on capitol hill the bill now faces a decisive
02:40house vote before lawmakers leave for recess for india the question is clear could washington's russia
02:46sanctions turn into a massive new tariff wall against indian trade the houthis have seized two islands
02:54in the red sea and saudi arabia's oil strategy just took a direct hit greater and lesser harnish sit 160
03:02kilometers from babal mandam a choke point that connects red sea to global shipping routes
03:09control the islands and you gain more than territory you gain leverage over ships oil and the economies
03:16that depend on them and riyadh has another fire to put out drone attacks on its critical east west oil
03:23pipeline allegedly launched from iraq by iran allied militants a threat from sea a threat from land
03:30and saudi arabia is running out of room to maneuver but how did a few volcanic islands become a
03:37strategic nightmare for riyadh and potentially a global oil crisis firstly why do these islands matter
03:45because in maritime warfare location can be more valuable than size itself greater and lesser harnish sit
03:53alongside key international shipping lanes just 160 kilometers north of the babal mandab the houthis
04:01already hold perim island near the straits narrowest choke point now their control extends further across
04:08a critical maritime corridor and that creates a dangerous possibility anti-ship missiles radar systems
04:16explosive drone boats the islands could become fixed military positions that track and threaten passing
04:23vessels a mobile launcher fires and moves an island position can watch the sea from a permanent location
04:30the ocean may be open but the risk is no longer invisible for tanker operators the calculation is brutal
04:37take the shorter route and face greater danger or sail around africa and pay for the detour and that brings
04:45us to a terrifying possibility how close is the world to an oil shock babal mandab is not just a
04:53narrow
04:53strip of water it connects asia and europe through the red sea and swiss canal around 12 of the world's
05:01goods typically pass through the strait saudi arabia relies on this corridor to export crude to key asian
05:07markets if shipping companies abandon the red sea tankers must travel around the cape of good hope that
05:15means longer journeys higher bunker fuel costs and rising insurance premiums when ships take the long way
05:23around consumers pay the long way home the pressure is already visible oil prices have crossed hundred
05:30dollars a barrel brent crude recently rose above 106 dollars and analysts warn that the stockpile buffers
05:38that once softened supply shocks have largely disappeared so this is not just about expensive oil today
05:45it is about how much more expensive the next disruption could become now look at saudi arabia's second
05:52problem the east-west petrol line the 1201 kilometer pipeline runs from saudi arabia's eastern oil fields
06:01to yanbu on the red sea it was built to help riad bypass the strait of hormuz and protect its
06:08export
06:08options but after drone attacks allegedly launched from iraq saudi arabia shut the pipeline as a precaution
06:16riad built a bypass for hormuz now the bypass itself is under pressure and the numbers
06:22explained why markets are nervous raistad energy estimates that 2.6 million to 4 million barrels
06:30of oil per day move through the pipeline and yanbu since late august that supply is now at risk the
06:38houthis
06:39threatened the maritime route near babal mandib iran allied militants allegedly threatened the pipeline from iraq
06:46one pressure point is at sea the other is on land saudi arabia is not facing one isolated attack
06:54its export options are being squeezed from multiple directions but can riad fight its way out of this
07:01that is where yemen's fractured political landscape becomes critical the saudi-backed government has lost
07:08ground rapidly anti-houthi forces retreated from mocha while the houthis expanded along yemen's
07:14western coast the southern transitional council has accused saudi arabia of alienating the southern
07:21forces that needed to fight the houthis you cannot win a war on paper when your allies refuse to fight
07:27from the same page the houthis have advanced rapidly while international partners debate their next move
07:35saudi arabia assembled a 14 country maritime coalition on the 14th of august to protect freedom
07:40of navigation but the coalition has so far remained largely invisible that leaves a difficult question
07:47will international naval forces continue defensive patrols or will they face pressure to confront houthi
07:53positions directly because escorting ships is one mission striking fortified island positions is another
08:01a defensive operation can protect a shipping lane a direct confrontation can ignite an entirely different
08:08war and beneath all the military calculations are yemen's civilians nearly 94 000 people have fled their
08:16homes since the fighting escalated schools have become shelters fishing communities along the coast face
08:23disruption as strategic waters become militarized the harnish islands are not just pieces on a military map
08:30they are part of a maritime environment that supports local livelihoods and commercial access
08:37if shipping becomes more dangerous food and medicine deliveries can face additional pressure
08:43for yemen's civilians every new battlefield can become another empty kitchen so what does the harnish
08:50seizure ultimately mean it gives the houthis greater strategic leverage near one of the world's vital shipping
08:57corridors it puts more pressure on saudi arabia's export network it raises the cost of maritime security and it
09:06forces international powers to confront a choice they would rather avoid stand back and shipping faces greater
09:13risk step in and the conflict could widen the houthis may not need to control every ship in the red
09:19sea
09:20they only need to make enough ships think twice before sailing through it a drone allegedly launched
09:27by yemen's houthis has triggered a security alert near mecca islam's holiest city saudi arabia says its air
09:35defenses intercepted and destroyed the drone before it entered restricted airspace and riyadh has issued a blunt
09:42warning the safety of mecca its mosques and millions of pilgrims is a red line but the houthis denied
09:48targeting the sacred city calling saudi arabia's claim a lie and misinformation so what exactly is
09:55happening the incident marks a dangerous escalation in a conflict that began in the year 2015 when saudi
10:02arabia intervened in yemen against the houthi movement a truth had largely reduced attacks on saudi
10:08territory but fighting has intensified again with houthi missiles and drones reportedly targeting
10:14saudi cities and economic sites saudi authorities say recent attacks injured around 13 people in cities
10:21including taif abha and hamis mushayat the coalition has promised a firm response the timing makes this even
10:29more sensitive mecca welcomes millions of worshippers every year for hajj and umrah any threat near the city
10:36could create panic far beyond saudi arabia the crisis also opens another front in an already volatile
10:43region with tensions involving iran the united states the red sea and the strait of hormuz the biggest
10:50question now is simple was mecca deliberately targeted or is this another dangerous claim in a
10:56widening information war either way saudi arabia has made its position very clear any threat near the holy
11:03city could trigger a much bigger confrontation something is changing in west asia and this time
11:10it happened behind closed doors in germany last week the united states israel and seven arab countries
11:16sat around the same table for a military conference according to reports the subject
11:22was regional security but the shadow hanging over that room was iran and it was also the escalating
11:29tensions between houthis and saudi arabia and that makes this meeting significant because when american
11:36israeli and arab military commanders sit together share intelligence and discuss threats it signals a
11:43deeper level of security coordination taking shape across a region being reshaped by conflict the meeting
11:50was organized by u.s central command chief admiral brad cooper eight countries attending alongside the united
11:55states were israel saudi arabia bahrain kuwait qatar the uae jordan and egypt look at that guest list
12:05carefully countries with different relationships with washington different relationships with tel aviv
12:11different calculations about iran yet they were all brought into the same room according to axios cooper
12:19reassured the military chiefs that america was not preparing to abandon the region despite iranian
12:25attacks attacks on u.s bases he also briefed them on american plans to secure the strait of hormos
12:30and increase maritime traffic that is not a small detail because hormos is not just another stretch of
12:37water it is one of the pressure points of global economy and if washington is talking about protecting
12:44that route while iran is attacking american positions across the region then this meeting was happening
12:50against a very serious military backdrop but then came the most striking part idf chief of staff
12:57lieutenant general eyal zamir reportedly briefed arab military leaders on israel's operations across its
13:04various fronts think about that for a moment israel sharing military information with arab states not in a
13:13television interview not at a public diplomatic summit inside a closed military conference and that
13:20tells you something about how regional calculations can change when countries believe they face common
13:26threats there is precedent in march of 2022 then idf chief aviv kohavi and senior arab military leaders
13:35including saudi arabia's chief of staff general fayyad al-ruwaili met in sharm el-sheikh to discuss regional
13:42threats linked to iran but the environment today is far more dangerous because iran is not the only
13:47problem anymore houthis have opened another front and they are not simply attacking military targets
13:54they've been striking saudi cities and energy infrastructure while advancing along yemen's red
14:00sea coast toward the babal mandib that creates a direct security problem for saudi arabia it also creates
14:07a global shipping problem babal mandib is a critical maritime route and any escalation there raises
14:14concerns about shipping and saudi energy exports so suddenly the map begins to connect iran the gulf
14:22israel saudi arabia yemen babal mandib hormuz and sitting in the middle of all of it is washington dc
14:32the united states has reportedly told riyadh that while president donald trump did not agree to u.s
14:39strikes against the houthis washington would provide intelligence sharing and targeting assistance
14:45israel has also committed to helping saudi arabia defend itself against the houthi threat with military
14:51intelligence discussed during a recent israel saudi meeting mediated by centcom this is where the story
14:59gets bigger than one meeting in germany because countries do not necessarily need to become friends
15:04to cooperate against a common threat they only need to believe that the threat is serious enough
15:10and the latest houthi attacks underline that threat on monday 13 civilians were wounded in
15:16strikes on the saudi cities of hamis moshayat abha and taif that is the reality facing the gulf the
15:24conflict is no longer neatly contained every new strike creates another security calculation every
15:30attack forces another country to decide how far it is willing to cooperate and every new threat gives
15:37washington another reason to coordinate its regional partners trump has also been speaking with leaders
15:44across the region including saudi arabia's crown prince muhammad bin salman the uae president muhammad
15:50bin zaid al nahyan and leaders from qatar pakistan turkey egypt bahrain and jordan he has pushed for
15:59the abram accords to expand and said the countries involved should sign simultaneously and then there's
16:06kuwait israel's ambassador to the uae yossi shelley has said kuwait could join the abram accords within
16:13four to six months that claim has not itself created a new agreement but place it alongside this military
16:20coordination and you can see the broader direction of travel diplomacy and military cooperation are not
16:27the same thing the germany meeting did not announce a new military alliance centcom described it as a
16:34scheduled conference focused on security cooperation but the fact that these militaries were meeting
16:40privately sharing information and discussing regional threats is itself notable because the old west
16:47asia was defined by rival camps israel on one side arab states on the other iran and its network on
16:54another america trying to manage all three but the security picture is becoming more complicated and some
17:01of those old dividing lines are becoming less useful when countries face the same missiles the same drones
17:07and the same threats to shipping the abraham accords created one channel for israel and arab states to
17:14engage security threats are creating another and centcom is sitting in the middle helping facilitate
17:20communication between militaries that once had little reason to speak openly that does not mean west
17:26asia has suddenly become united far from it these countries still have different interests different
17:32relationships with iran and different positions on israel but they're increasingly finding areas where
17:38cooperation serves their immediate security needs and that may be the real message from germany
17:44not an alliance not a treaty not a grand declaration something quieter coordination american commanders
17:52telling regional partners that the u.s is staying israeli commanders briefing arab militaries
17:58saudi arabia receiving intelligence support against the houthis and senior military leaders discussing
18:04how to protect critical waterways and regional security so west asia may therefore be entering another phase
18:12one where military cooperation is developing faster than political reconciliation where countries do not
18:18have to agree on everything to coordinate on what threatens them and where iran's actions the houthis
18:24attacks and the vulnerability of major shipping routes are pushing very different capitals into the very
18:31same conversation the germany summit was private but the message emerging from it is public enough the united
18:38states is not walking away from the region israel is communicating with arab militaries gulf states are
18:45confronting threats that cross their borders and centcom is becoming a crucial bridge between all of
18:52them so perhaps the biggest story here is not what was announced in germany it is what was discussed
18:58when the cameras were not there because behind those closed doors eight nations were talking about one
19:04increasingly interconnected interconnected security problem and the question now is how far that quiet
19:11coordination can really go in an exclusive conversation i spoke with dr hanan bulky saudi arabia's
19:19nominated candidate for who director general which is coming up for elections next year from health care in
19:25conflict zones like gaza to rebuilding trust in the organization and preparing for the next pandemic she outlined what
19:32she would bring to the table should she become the next director general watch the full interview on india
19:38today global here is an excerpt in gaza was a very special case as you know it's very complex i
19:45was able to
19:46enter gaza in july of 2024 so i was able to see the health care system uh and the destruction
19:53as you have
19:54very well described it um destruction to the whole uh land of gaza in a way it's it was quite
20:01significant to
20:02see it firsthand i didn't have the privilege to uh travel throughout gaza but of what i have seen
20:08there was a significant uh destruction um in those situations we work within the u.n agency and with
20:17partner u.n agencies to try to negotiate as much as we can the entrance of the aid and we've
20:24seen uh the
20:25stalling of the uh capacity of the humanitarian aid to go into gaza i was also at al-arish which
20:32is on the
20:33egypt side where there still uh was some uh problems in entering of aid from the inner side of gaza
20:41into
20:42gaza so we tried to work really hard with um the the uh the different parties involved in allowing the
20:50entrance of aid into gaza so it has been a very challenging situation um and on top of that our
20:58warehouses where the aid goes directly into has been attacked uh once or twice and that has also led to
21:05loss of resources uh during those very difficult periods i think that we are also uh playing really
21:14hard for the humanitarian aid to continue to go in in the highest numbers the health workforce has also
21:21been heavily hit in in gaza and we're also playing for the health workers to be spared and health care
21:28facilities and warehouses to be spared in any conflict zone same thing for gaza so these are part of our
21:36diplomatic work that we do and we communicate as much as possible to advocate for uh following
21:43international law and for making sure that the health care systems the health workforce the
21:49ambulances the warehouses are spared of any type of conflict that's all in this edition of statecraft
21:56before we go for the newly appointed german ambassador to india dr yasper weick india is more than just
22:03a new posting he's emotionally attached to the country and calls himself an old friend of india since
22:08he's been posted here before but the ambassador shared a video on social media as he looked back
22:13at his early journey and someone else from the family is already winning hearts jackie their pet dog
22:21jackie has accompanied the family to india and is now stealing the spotlight on social media take a look
22:27at the video enjoy goodbye and take care i'm jasper we i'm the new german ambassador to india and i'm
22:35cordola week i'm jasper's wife for me coming to india is like coming home i first came to india 35
22:45years
22:45ago i was still a student immediately i felt thrilled by the country and its people many years later together
22:51with cordola i returned to india as deputy head of the german embassy we have fond memories of these years
22:57and here we are again we have just arrived from berlin on my first day i met with the entire
23:02embassy team
23:03they are the true engine behind our operations last time we came to india with our youngest daughter
23:10who finished high school here this time we brought our dachshund iskanam jackie have once i have
23:17presented my credentials in the coming weeks i want to serve as a matchmaker as an enabler and as a
23:23catalyst to bring the indio-german friendship to a new level we are building new bridges between our
23:28nations every day the indian diaspora in germany is growing as the german investments in india in
23:34these dynamic times it's a great honor to serve as the german ambassador to india together with the
23:40entire embassy team and our four general consulates across the country and with some support of your
23:47of your wife thank you for that
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