00:00The situation in the Middle East is growing critical right now, even the Red Sea is on the verge of
00:03a blockade.
00:03As the Houthi rebels launch a full-scale counter-offensive, they are capturing the entire coastline from the Yemeni government
00:07forces.
00:08Today, we are going to dive deep into this story. Let's get right into it.
00:10Before we begin, if you want to get the fastest international news in Korea, please make sure to subscribe to
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00:16Right now, the Houthi rebels are launching a counter-attack at an incredible pace.
00:19Just a few days ago, news of successive victories by the Yemeni government forces was heard, putting pressure on the
00:23Houthi rebels.
00:24However, after targeting and relentlessly attacking the weak points along the front line, the Houthi rebels succeeded in capturing the
00:29strategic stronghold of Mocha.
00:30As a result, they are reportedly on the verge of securing control over the Babamandeb straight waters, which the Houthi
00:35rebels had not previously controlled.
00:37Since then, the Houthi rebels have succeeded in capturing the Mocha and Dubab areas, and have even captured the island
00:41areas in the Red Sea.
00:43The Houthi rebels claim that they have captured all the island areas in the Red Sea and were securing control.
00:47It is reported that the Houthi rebels launched attacks by loading troops onto boats and landing them on the islands.
00:51The fact that the Houthi rebels have seized this region is practically equivalent to gaining control over the Babamandeb Strait,
00:57which is why the international community is in an uproar.
00:59As you can see, the Babamandeb Strait is the shortest maritime trade route connecting Europe and Asia.
01:03It is where the Suez Canal passes through.
01:05However, following the Strait of Hormuz, the Babamandeb waters have now fallen under Iran's fear of influence as well, which
01:09means they could hold total sway over global logistics and maritime shipping.
01:12Right away, the Abad Studies and Research Center, a Yemeni security think tank, stated that even without completely occupying the
01:17waters,
01:17the Houthi rebels have demonstrated their capability to effectively paralyze shipping lanes merely by seizing the Port of Mocha and
01:22deploying asymmetric capabilities such as drones and missiles.
01:25Now that they have seized not only the Port of Mocha but also occupied the island regions, even the islands,
01:29isn't a massive risk emerging?
01:31Saudi Arabia is facing an even greater emergency.
01:33Ever since the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed after the Middle East conflicts, Saudi Arabia has relied heavily on
01:37the Red Sea's shipping lanes.
01:38The problem is, if even the Red Sea falls under Iran's fear of influence and is subjected to a blockage,
01:42Saudi Arabia will be forced into a situation where it has to divert around the Cape of Good Hope to
01:46export its oil.
01:47Above all, Saudi Arabia was the one backing the Yemeni government forces, but as the Yemeni government troops and the
01:52supporting Saudi forces fled, abandoning their weapons and equipment, the morale of the Houthi rebels has only soared.
01:56On top of that, the Houthi rebels captured those weapons and equipment and are using them as their own.
02:00Mohammed Abdul Salam, the spokesperson for the Houthi rebels, stated in a release that the military operations along the Red
02:05Sea coast are national measures to defend their sovereignty, responding to challenges and ambitions that threaten domestic peace.
02:11He further explained that the Republic of Yemen harbors no ambitions toward neighboring nations, Arab or Islamic countries, or any
02:16other nation in the world.
02:17He also stated that freedom of navigation and international trade in the relevant waters remain safe and normal, calling the
02:23international community's concerns unnecessary.
02:25As the situation continues to deteriorate, Saudi forces and Yemeni government forces appear to be launching airstrikes and attacks against
02:31the Houthi rebels, in an effort to turn the tide.
02:33The problem is that both the Saudi forces and the Yemeni government forces lack the will to fight, so whenever
02:38a skirmish breaks out, they just abandon their weapons and equipment and flee.
02:41In the end, Saudi Arabia asked the U.S. for help, but it's said that the U.S. was also
02:44reluctant to intervene directly.
02:46However, currently around 100 to 200 U.S. military advisors are stationed in Saudi Arabia supporting the Saudi forces, handing
02:51over all kinds of data and intelligence to the Saudi military as they attempt strikes against the Houthi rebels.
02:55From the U.S. perspective, what's even more burdensome right now is that the Houthi offensive isn't an isolated move,
03:00but is expanding into a new front amid the ongoing conflict between Iran and the U.S.
03:04In fact, international oil prices are already reacting sharply.
03:07As of September 10th, WTI climbed to $102.48 a barrel, and Brent reached $107.63 with both crude benchmarks,
03:15recording their highest levels in recent months.
03:17In the U.S. especially, rising energy prices can directly drive up inflation and consumer burdens, making this an extremely
03:22sensitive issue for the Trump administration.
03:23On top of that, with the Houthis attacking Saudi energy facilities and putting pressure on Red Sea shipping routes, the
03:30market is pricing in the potential for even greater supply disruptions ahead.
03:33If the Houthi offensive continues, even without a major drop in actual oil production, mounting shipping risks will drive up
03:39freight and insurance costs, putting further upward pressure on global oil prices.
03:43For the U.S., this creates a situation where we must manage rising oil prices while simultaneously waging a war
03:47with Iran.
03:48This is also why security experts view the situation through the lens of Iran's asymmetric strategy.
03:52While the U.S. concentrates its military power on the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian mainland, if the Houthis
03:57pressure Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, the U.S. will also have to worry about the Yemeni front.
04:01In fact, Reuters reported, citing sources from the Yemeni government and Iran, as well as regional diplomats, that there are
04:06indications Iran's Revolutionary Guard directly guided the Houthis' recent coastal advance,
04:10though Iran denies allegations that it directly controls the Houthis, with claims emerging that high-ranking officials from Iran's Revolutionary
04:17Guard were involved in this operation, it's hard to imagine the U.S. taking this lightly, isn't it?
04:21On top of that, the political burden on the U.S. is growing as well.
04:24Secretary of State Marco Rubio has defined the Houthis as an Iranian proxy force, pointing out Iran's influence behind these
04:30attacks.
04:30If the Houthis pressure both Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea simultaneously, while the U.S. is at war with
04:34Iran, Washington would have to counter not only mainland Iran, but also the forces backed by Iran all at once.
04:39For Iran, aside from a direct clash with the U.S., leveraging the Houthis to put pressure on Saudi oil
04:43exports and the Red Sea shipping lanes allows them to gain a strategic advantage.
04:47Especially with the U.S. midterm elections approaching, if oil prices and fuel costs continue to rise, the domestic political
04:53pressure on the Trump administration is bound to escalate.
04:55In fact, the current rise in international oil prices reflects not only the conflict between Iran and the U.S.,
05:00but also the Houthis' capture of mocha and the threat to the Red Sea shipping lanes.
05:04Saudi Arabia's oil exports have plunged to a 13-year low as they face attacks from Yemen's Houthi rebels.
05:08In fact, over the past week, only nine Saudi cargo ships were reported to have traveled into the Red Sea
05:12through the Babel-Mandeb Strait.
05:14Saudi Arabia reportedly set up several alternative routes to maintain oil exports after the war between the U.S. and
05:19Iran began in late February.
05:20When the Strait of Hormuz was blockaded, they increased transport through the pipeline crossing the country to the Red Sea,
05:25but now even that route is on the verge of being cut off.
05:27So what kind of problems would actually arise if Saudi Arabia had to export its oil by rounding the Cape
05:32of Good Hope?
05:32First and foremost, the problem is that the transport time increases significantly.
05:36Using the Red Sea and Suez Canal allows ships traveling between Asia and Europe to take a relatively short route,
05:41but if passing through the Babel-Mandeb Strait becomes difficult, they have to detour around the Cape of Good Hope
05:45at the southern tip of Africa.
05:46In this case, the distance traveled by the ship increases significantly, and the voyage can be prolonged by several weeks.
05:51Reuters also reported that disruptions in the Babel-Mandeb Strait could force vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good
05:56Hope,
05:56incurring substantial extra costs and prolonged transit times.
05:59The critical point here is that it doesn't just end with ships sailing for longer periods.
06:03If a single vessel requires more time to reach its destination,
06:06the total volume of cargo that can be transported within the same time frame may also decrease.
06:10For example, a ship that could make multiple trips in a month on a standard route would spend much longer
06:14on a single voyage by detouring around the Cape of Good Hope,
06:17which could lead to a shortage of vessels actually available in the market.
06:20As a result, shipping lines are likely to demand higher freight rates to secure scarce vessels,
06:24and cargo owners will have to pay significantly more to transport the same volume.
06:28On top of that, insurance premiums could rise as well.
06:30Vessels passing through waters with a high risk of war or attack must pay additional war risk premiums,
06:35and shipping costs reflecting these risks have already risen significantly in the Middle East.
06:40According to Reuters, insurance and war risk costs for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz have increased substantially,
06:44and some carriers are opting for longer routes to bypass the danger zone entirely.
06:48The problem is that these costs don't just stop with the shipping companies.
06:51If the cost of transporting oil from producing countries to consuming nations rises,
06:55it can put additional upward pressure on crude oil trading prices as well.
06:58Particularly in a situation like now, where traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already sharply decreased.
07:02If the Red Sea and the Babel-Mandeb Strait also become unstable, the market will start factoring in.
07:07Not only how much actual supply could decline, but also how many ships and routes remain to safely transport the
07:12oil.
07:13First, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased compared to normal times,
07:16and as tensions rise in the Babel-Mandeb Strait as well, uncertainty surrounding the shipping itself is growing.
07:21However, a new development has emerged here.
07:23It's been reported that Saudi Arabia has begun asking the United States to go beyond simple government or defensive support
07:28and take direct military action against the Houthi rebel.
07:31According to the American media outlet Axios,
07:34Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called President Trump twice on September 10
07:37to request immediate strikes against the Houthi rebels.
07:40With the Houthi rebels advancing faster than expected,
07:43it seems Saudi Arabia judged that it would be difficult to control the situation on its own.
07:47In particular, with the Yemeni government forces supported by Saudi Arabia retreating
07:51and the Houthis continuing their advance along the Red Sea coast,
07:54Saudi Arabia's military options are dwindling.
07:57However, accepting this request was also quite a burden for the United States.
08:00With the U.S. currently focused on its conflict with Iran,
08:02launching direct strikes on Yemen would open up yet another front of American involvement in the Middle East.
08:07It is reported that while the U.S. administration remains interested in maintaining freedom of navigation in the Red Sea,
08:12it maintains a cautious stance on getting deeply and directly involved in the Yemeni civil war.
08:16Therefore, Washington seems to be considering options to expand support for Saudi Arabia
08:20while drawing the line at direct strikes.
08:22However, if Saudi Arabia continues to demand U.S. military intervention,
08:26it remains to be seen whether President Trump will opt for direct strikes against the Houthis
08:30or leave it to Saudi Arabia and other regional allies to respond directly.
08:35U.S. military intervention,
08:35U.S. military intervention,
08:36U.S. military intervention,
08:36U.S. military intervention,
08:36U.S. military intervention,
08:36U.S. military intervention,
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