- 3 hours ago
- #considerthis
How can Indonesia turn its growing global influence into the progress it has long been capable of? Indonesia is punching above its weight internationally, but is it living up to its potential at home? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Gita Wirjawan, Former Minister of Trade, Republic of Indonesia and Founder of the Endgame Podcast, who was a keynote speaker at the Penang Peace Dialogue 2026 in Georgetown, Penang.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:10hello and good evening i'm melissa address welcome to consider this this is the show
00:14where we want you to consider and then we consider what you know of the news of the day i'm
00:18here
00:19in georgetown at gen hotel penang where we're here for the penang peace dialogue 2026 and my guest
00:27today is one of the speakers here at the event gita wiryawan who was indonesia's um minister of
00:33trade from 2011 to 2014. he is currently a podcaster and a published author thank you so much for
00:41speaking it's good to have you here i would like to maybe take a look at indonesia at the moment
00:48there are some commentators who describe indonesia as this pivotal power in southeast asia they talk
00:55about the largest economy the largest population g20 member um oecd uh pursuing oecd
01:01membership brics membership as well um but there are others on the flip side who say well look at
01:08the state of the economy look at the rupiah at the moment look at the current policy mix where do
01:14you
01:14stand in terms of your assessment do you think that indonesia is punching above its weight internationally
01:21or is it underperforming relative to its potential i think there's a few underlying factors the first
01:30is perhaps the perception that the fiscal space allocation is not where it should be right on the
01:40back of perhaps the government's allocating quite a meaningful amount for the free meals program and
01:47cooperative program which many would argue could have been allocated a bit more for perhaps compensating
01:55the teachers perhaps improving upon a pre-existing curricula or perhaps essentially for purposes of
02:06equipping the citizenry as to improve upon their wisdom and know-how the second i think is the perception
02:17that there could have been better technocratization of decision making okay right um the the cabinet size
02:27may seem larger than before and and i think uh the international community is still trying to comprehend
02:37uh the size or why the size has been expanded right the third i think is perhaps
02:47the perception amongst the international community members with respect to how the story of indonesia
02:55should be told right should be narrated i would argue that
03:03i think those that understand indonesia in the long run i think they still believe in the thesis
03:11and for anybody to allocate capital into anywhere else he or she i think needs to understand
03:20a lot more about directionality okay as opposed to absolutism what what is the story of indonesia that
03:28you're telling when you go abroad when you talk to foreign media like myself when you talk to investors and
03:35the business community well as you aptly pointed out we're the only member of the g20 in southeast asia
03:42we're a size of 285 million people each one of which is hungry to move up the value chain hungry
03:50to move
03:50up the global geopolitical order hungry to be relevant to not only ourselves but also to southeast asia and the
03:58rest of the world right and that that means i think the world with all to make sure that as
04:07many as
04:08possible would be better educated we're not as educated as we should be i mean if we take a look
04:14at
04:14the southeast asian 11 nations i think singapore is really you know way up there and they've set
04:21the the bar the high bar and and in terms of the educational attainment for the 15 year olds we're
04:28not where we should be in terms of the tertiary education we're not where we should be compared
04:33to the singapore's of the world the china's of the world the india's of the world but it doesn't mean
04:38we
04:38don't have the necessary thirst or hunger right to to attain that so so i think it requires you know
04:47investing in great teachers we've got about 3.5 million teachers or professors from the very
04:55western part of indonesia to the eastern part of indonesia unfortunately most of which are not
05:00making as much as those in malaysia much less in singapore to the extent that that that gets
05:06recalibrated i think there's a greater wherewithal to infuse imagination ambition and serendipity into
05:14each one of the students that i think will you know entail a major inflection for indonesia that
05:21would be the long game that would be the long term vision correct but in the short term we have
05:27um
05:27very uh i would say lofty economic ambitions coming from the current uh administration i think thinking
05:35about lifting economic growth to above eight percent yes absolutely very lofty goals do you think that
05:42given the current policy mix and all the things that you talked about earlier about the fiscal space
05:46and where that the lack of i think better synchronization do you think that that's achievable
05:52for indonesia uh in the next six months no but but if you really think about it the baseline for
05:58indonesia's economic growth trajectory is five percent given the propensity to consume
06:04okay given the scale of the population right so what we're really talking about is that delta of
06:10three percent beyond five percent where is that three percent i'll get there but that three percent
06:16in the context of a gdp of 1.5 trillion dollars is only about 45 billion dollars right so it's
06:22just
06:23really a matter of attracting 45 billion dollars worth of fdi more than whatever it has been able to
06:29attract so indonesia has been able to attract 30 to 50 billion dollars worth of fdi where singapore gets
06:35about 100 to 140 billion dollars so one would think within reason that there's no reason for indonesia
06:43not to be able to get fdi as much if not more than what singapore gets but we have to
06:48study
06:50why singapore has been able to get disproportionately more than indonesia because singapore has been dogged
06:56in rule of law they've been dogged on basically being able to translate from uncertainties to risks
07:03so i think indonesia needs to understand that it could be better in the rule of law it could be
07:11better in translating from uncertainties to risk to the extent it can achieve those better and to the
07:16extent that there's a perception out there that indonesia in the near term could take steps
07:22to that direction i think you know it might be able to do it but but i'm i'm not there
07:29yet but i'm
07:30just suggesting that i think the tweak as for indonesia to be able to get an additional 45 billion
07:36dollars worth of foreign direct investment is not an impossibility and where do you think that's going
07:42to come from i think it requires a recognition by the the leadership uh that rule of law is essential
07:51and then the investing the investment in stem is essential malaysia i think has set a very high bar
07:58malaysia converts more than 40 percent of its university students into stem science technology
08:04engineering mathematics especially in penang right you've got all these tech companies chip companies
08:11investing disproportionately more than any other part of southeast asia even singapore i mean penang i
08:18think is outperforming singapore in many tech areas indonesia is only converting 20 to 22 percent of its
08:24university students to stem the philippines only 20 to 22 percent even singapore is only at 36 percent
08:31so if let's say someday soon the leadership of indonesia were to recognize and utter that they're going
08:41to take steps into that direction meaning converting stem uh at a much higher rate than its pre-existing
08:48rate and then taking whatever steps that are necessary to improve upon the pre-existing rule of law
08:55i think that will be highly rewarded are you seeing that are you seeing that kind of awareness or even
09:01the trajectory of that in the current i'm hopeful i'm praying and i'm burning the sins every day okay
09:05uh well i was also going to ask you where you think the fdi is going to come from that
09:11will drive that
09:12three percent extra um gdp growth uh we had president probably talk about russia using indonesia as a
09:20gateway into southeast asia we know that um indonesia has benefited enormously from chinese investment and
09:28demand as well from your perspective and your experiences as trade minister um where do you think that
09:34fbi is going to come from i'm not worried about liquidity okay there's flushed liquidity uh in
09:42the west because you know the west has been you know embarking on this quantitative easing exercise for
09:50a long time there's about 140 trillion dollars worth of liquidity floating around the west and their
09:55friends and allies in japan korea and the middle east it needs to ostensibly inevitably be diversified out
10:04at the risk that at the rate that risk premium is rising within the west right without mentioning
10:11names risk premium is rising so if if you're a capital allocator you you you inevitably would have to
10:18diversify out but unfortunately i think many countries in southeast asia are not narrating their stories
10:24as much as well as loudly as they should and then i think those two attributes that you know we've
10:31talked
10:31about earlier rule of law and translational or stem conversion uh i think we'll do the trick well
10:38that's so interesting that you talk about um telling the story of the countries in southeast asia
10:44when you look at the region which story is most appealing to you at the moment or who's doing the
10:51best job telling their story singapore doing the best job i think so i think there is a presumption
10:56there is a predisposition that there is a presupposition if you're anywhere around the world
11:04in europe in the us australia japan that the singaporeans are the best storytellers about southeast
11:09asia right from what you've heard about malaysia how do you think malaysia can tell her story better
11:13i think malaysia can tell the story better than indonesia but malaysia has only 30 million indonesia has
11:19285 million so it doesn't take a lot of storytellers you know for a scale of 285 million to be
11:28properly narrated uh and and proper as in something that has substance but also credibility and
11:37accountability yeah so we're not talking about all 285 million people and being able to tell stories
11:43but if there's like five or ten guys from indonesia that can tell the stories right
11:48game on but i think we'll get there but we're not there yet okay from your perspective gita what do
11:54you think malaysia and indonesia should be doing together that we're not doing right now i i think we
12:02need to put it in the context of southeast asia right if you take a look at the interest rate
12:07within
12:08southeast asia it's less than 30 percent of the collective gdp which is a mockery if you take
12:16look europe or the european union their intra trade their ability to trade with each other is 60 to 65
12:23percent of their collective gdp ours is like 20 to 30 percent i think it underlines the fact that we're
12:30not telling stories to each other better even emma's neighbors yeah number one we're not telling stories
12:37to each other better do you identify yourself as an aseanite first and foremost no there you go
12:43right so i i think the onus is on us to tell stories so that we have better identification better
12:51identity the second is to eschew
12:57the scale of duplicating right there needs to be a lot more complementarity
13:04if there is a higher degree of complementarity among southeast asian countries then the ability
13:10to trade with each other will rise but if you're producing the same goods and services malaysia and
13:16indonesia why would you trade with each other and then you and i will compete you know with respect to
13:23exporting to the same destination at our expense because we're going to have to bring price down
13:29both of you i mean both of us but if if we produce goods and services that are in complementarity
13:36you can target destination a outside southeast asia i can target destination b outside southeast asia
13:42and then i may be able to sell my goods and services to you because you don't have it you
13:47don't produce
13:48it you may be able to sell your goods and services to me and it's underpinned by the fact that
13:53our
13:54intratrade in southeast asia is less than one trillion dollars in the context of a four
13:58trillion dollar gdp is it because we see each other as competitors no no how do we get to this
14:04complementary mindset i i i think if you tell stories if you communicate with each other better more
14:11empathically uh empathetically i think you can you can have a greater ability of producing goods and
14:21services that are much more in complementarity can i ask you gita in the time since you've left office
14:27as minister how have you seen multilateralism trade or the multilateral trade system change i mean so much
14:37has happened i'm sure in the decade decade and a half um if i understand correctly you chaired the wto
14:42ministerial meeting i did a long time ago 2013 um and i think at that time multilateral trade system was
14:50really had primacy had so much more authority when you look at today what are you observing how much has
14:56that changed how much has the era of free trade changed today i think since 2013 the crystallization of
15:05the shifting from unipolarity to multipolarity has taken place big time and and this was even punctuated
15:14on february 28th this year when you know the war in iran started again after june last year and who
15:23would
15:23have thought that iran was going to be able to survive more than two weeks the fact that they've resisted
15:28and even seem stronger by today i think typifies underlines revisionism that's inevitable coming from
15:41countries that would have been deemed tiny irrelevant into countries that are much bigger and much more
15:49relevant so that revisionism will be manifested in how these countries whether they're members of BRICS
15:58or nigeria turkey mexico you name it right they basically are telling everybody else or the west that
16:08dude you you wrote the rules when you wrote the rules two to three decades ago i didn't have as
16:14high
16:14an iq as i do uh i think you know there are certain clauses within the rules that need to
16:22be amended
16:23or even upend it as to suit my national interest so the the projection of their you know power will
16:34be
16:34manifested or reflected or reflecting upon their national interests which are which are have evolved so
16:45ironically multipolarity is actually manifested in a in a higher degree of bilateralization agreed
16:53and plurilateralization and mini lateralization not multilateralization i think we're exposed to
17:01this for the next five to ten years until such time that everybody feels pretty cool chill about
17:07the standardization of the rules is that help me think this through is that a good thing or a bad
17:13thing
17:13what are the kind of pros and cons that we've now shifted into this this era of bilateralism
17:19mini multilateralism i i would argue i think it's not good it's net good net good for for you know
17:27developing economies like talk to me about that well because if if you're still at the bottom echelon
17:33of the value chain i think you deserve you have rights and obligations that would
17:42really cater to cater to the needs of your people not those in north america not those in western europe
17:50right i think that has to be prioritized that has to be given primacy so that you can nurture your
17:58citizenry much better and then the good thing is whatever characteristics we're exposed to in
18:06indonesia are likely to be the same as those in many other southeast asian countries so that provides
18:12an opportunity to collectively you know cultivate and and improve upon the you know the pre-existing
18:19wisdom which which i would argue that asia needs to manifest greater degree of collective wisdom that
18:27sounds very um promising but what are the ideal ideal i was going to say no i'm a realist but
18:34what are
18:35the pitfalls to achieving that education okay i think uh lack of educational conversions uh i think there
18:44is tremendous degree of educational attainment divergence in the 11 countries you've got two countries
18:52out of 11 that score above the global average of pisa for the 15 year olds those are vietnam and
19:00singapore malaysia is not even above the global average much less indonesia and the philippines and
19:06thailand out of 10 000 universities in southeast asia only two universities are in the top 20 both of
19:13which are in singapore out of 10 000 universities in southeast asia only malaysia places its universities
19:22university in the top 100 right you know similar not even thailand not even philippines not even
19:27indonesia so that divergent stares at me right and and i think it needs to be viewed with caution and
19:37care and sympathy and empathy how do you fix that how do you remedy that if you keep relying on
19:43the
19:44individual leadership you may have to wait for a long time at the rate that there is quite a bit
19:50of
19:50political neurosis in many countries around the world right so i would argue for a centralization
19:58of approach through the asean charter right of education absolutely i i think that could help
20:05accelerate this this this could sound a bit more provocative but asean has been beautiful in or with
20:14respect to its principle of non-interference or principle of subsidiarity as it relates to social
20:22culture politics and economics right but to the extent asean can actually superimpose right upon each
20:30country dude you're going to have to copycat whatever finland has done whatever singapore has done
20:36educationally and we're going to give you x number of years
20:40with a differentiated timeline for each country
20:44but knowing that at some point whether it's 10 years from today or 15 years from today
20:50each country in asean will have a university in the top 20. each country in asean would have placed or
20:58scored above the global average of pisa that i think would help in entailing a much greater degree of
21:05convergence uh educationally now i would argue that that convergence or that lack of divergence
21:13would position and you know asean a lot more robustly right with respect to the changing nature
21:20of geopolitics technology economics and climate i like what i'm hearing i think it's a vision uh
21:26really really testing but but it's a radical idea and who do you think might be able to superimpose this
21:33on asia asia asia organization no one it's a bit like the eu the eu has supranationalism you know the
21:42supranationalism is manifested in the union unionization of the monetary space they've got a common currency
21:49and immigration you have one visa for all 27 countries we don't have those two in asean we don't
21:57need to but we need to have i think supranationalism as it relates to education without which
22:04the divergence educationally speaking in asean is likely to
22:11stagnate if not exacerbate have you ever pitched this idea to anyone no i'm pitching it to you
22:19through this channel okay yeah but but i'm gonna have i'm gonna have a conversation with asean
22:24in a near foreseeable future to test this idea i would be very interested to see how this idea lands
22:30and would there be a member country in asean that you would um like to take the lead well i
22:39think all 11
22:40countries would have to unanimously agree right but but i think it takes the singaporeans to
22:47consent with the idea that perhaps their way of compensating their teachers ought to be emulated by
22:53all the other 10 countries their way of concocting curricula ought to be emulated by the other 10
22:59countries and it takes i think perhaps indonesia because it's the largest it's the i call it the
23:07biggest political muscle of southeast asia right if if the two countries the intellectual muscle and the
23:13political muscle concur i think there might be a chance that the other nine countries might just
23:19tag along okay well this is quite exciting so i'm very happy that you've pitched it on this show and
23:24i'm excited to hear how um it lines with the asean leaders well i'm gonna i'm gonna pray and burn
23:31the
23:31sense thank you so much thank you that's all the time we have for you on this episode of consider
23:37this i'm melissa idris signing off for the evening thank you so much for watching good night
Comments