- 3 weeks ago
- #considerthis
The border clashes between Cambodia and Thailand in July was a stark reminder that even within ASEAN, peace is not guaranteed. Now, the Kuala Lumpur Accord has been signed: a ceasefire declaration brokered under Malaysia’s ASEAN chairmanship. Can this fragile peace hold? And has ASEAN proven it can manage conflict within its own ranks? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Adib Zalkapli, Managing Director of geopolitical advisory firm, Viewfinder Global Affairs.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and good evening. I'm Melissa Idris. Welcome to Consider This. This is the show
00:25where we want you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day.
00:29I'm here at the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur Convention Center and I'm joined by Adip Zalkapli
00:36who is the Managing Director of the geopolitical advisory firm Viewfinder Global Affairs.
00:43Adip, thanks so much for joining me on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit.
00:47It's been quite a day today. We're recording this on Sunday, on the day that the ceasefire agreement
00:56was signed between Thailand and Cambodia. And Donald Trump presided over it, of course,
01:02with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim as well. And Donald Trump used the word historic to describe
01:09the ceasefire agreement. He used the word momentous. And I wonder if you agree with that.
01:16Was this a momentous agreement that was achieved at the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit?
01:23Or as some people, some critics argue, was this merely symbolic?
01:29Yes. I think, firstly, let me address the second part of your question whether this was symbolic
01:35agreement. So any conflict settlement usually requires incremental agreements. Both warring
01:44factions will gradually commit, you know, take certain commitments. So it's not like one rigid document
01:53that will end hostility between both sides. So last July in Putrajaya, we saw the first ceasefire
02:00agreement for both sides to end the hostility. And today in KL, the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord,
02:08it's a bit more operational for both sides, you know, to, for example, like surrender the captured
02:15soldiers and also the involvement of ASEAN Observer's Team. So it's a bit more operational.
02:21It's incremental. And in a way, it's historic because within the short period, we already had the
02:26the evolution, the second iteration of the agreement compared to like previous or more recent
02:34conflicts, whether in Northern Ireland, in Bosnia, where I think the time between the first
02:42or then the subsequent agreements a bit longer. And yes, I agree in a way, historically, this
02:47was, you know, it was a historic achievement given the short time span between the two agreements.
02:52So it started with the ceasefire in July and then moved on. So now that we're working out
02:57the pathway to peace, so to speak, when you think about who was involved, so I think there
03:03were reported that said that suggested that US and China diplomatic pressure played a role
03:09behind the scenes. And of course, we know Prime Minister Anwar Rahim was involved in calling
03:14up the leaders to discuss a ceasefire agreement. Donald Trump is now claiming this as another
03:22notch in his belt in terms of peacemaking deals. Why do you think Trump is giving so much attention
03:29to this specific border conflict? What is it about the Thai-Cambodia border dispute that has
03:38him flying into Kuala Lumpur to preside over the Kuala Lumpur Accord?
03:43I think from the strategic perspective, the US cannot afford an escalation of conflict in
03:49the region. I mean, not just the US and the other big powers as well, which is why I think
03:53Trump is paying close attention to the conflict. And South Asia has not seen such conflict in
04:00a very long time. And given American exposure, America's interest in the region, it's only
04:08natural for Trump to spend a lot of time, a lot of his time. And of course, it is also consistent
04:14with the branding that he's projecting as the president of peace. So it helps in a way,
04:19so it covers both American strategic interests and also his personal branding as well.
04:25Was it his victory to claim? Oh yeah, definitely. I think it's very important, the pressure that
04:31he put initially to force both sides to get to the negotiating table. And of course, it was
04:38operationalized by Malaysia as the mediator that led to the Putrajaya ceasefire agreement.
04:48Could you elaborate on that? Malaysia's role in the ceasefire agreement. The conflict was
04:54really quite an unexpected test for Prime Minister Sano Ibrahim's leadership in terms of being
05:01an ASEAN chair, particularly because he also had informal advisers on Myanmar in Thaksin,
05:11Chinawatera, and also Hun Sen as his advisers. He had picked those two countries to help him with
05:18Myanmar, and they then ended up being an intra-ASEAN conflict within them.
05:25Yes. So I think firstly Malaysia's role in peacemaking in the region is not new. Although I think in the past,
05:33Malaysia was involved in settling conflicts between state and non-state actors in southern Thailand and
05:41southern Philippines. I think there was some kind of Malaysian involvement there. This was, I think,
05:46the first conflict involving two states in ASEAN, in South Asia. So Malaysia's reputation helped. And the fact that
05:56the chairman this year is also kind of accepted as the strongman of South Asia. I think the region has not
06:03seen a strongman for some time. And it's, I think ASEAN is just kind of fortunate to have a strongman as
06:13the chair this year to help resolve the conflict. Did the Cambodia-Thailand border dispute, the flare-up
06:20intentions in July, did that expose ASEAN's weakness in terms of dealing with intra-regional conflicts?
06:30ASEAN prioritizing consensus, prioritizing neutrality, non-interference. Did it expose an underlying current there in the bloc?
06:41Yeah, if there's anything it exposes, I think ASEAN's lack of the internal framework to deal with
06:49conflicts between states. Which is why I think President Donald Trump's initial intervention was very beneficial
06:58to bring the two states together. I think moving forward, what ASEAN can learn from this is to have some kind of
07:06framework to deal with future conflicts and also to make sure that the ceasefire agreements and the subsequent
07:13agreements signed between Thailand and Cambodia will hold.
07:17How vulnerable or how fragile is the ceasefire? Do you think it will hold?
07:23For now, it looks like it will hold, you know, with the support of President Trump and the fact that ASEAN is taking it seriously.
07:31But in terms of conflict settlement, we are still at a stage, perhaps you can call it confidence building.
07:39So basically to get both sides to accept the agreements, the two agreements can hold, try to fulfill it as much as possible
07:48with the support of ASEAN partners and work towards the next evolution of the conflict settlement.
07:55So perhaps another agreement in the months to come or maybe in a year, you know.
08:01Check in constantly to make sure that there is progress with the peace talks.
08:05When you look back, so Malaysia will be handing over the chair to the Philippines for the coming ASEAN chairmanship.
08:13When you look back at the year of Malaysia's ASEAN chair, how would you assess the performance?
08:19What would you say are some of Malaysia's hits and if I may, Malaysia's misses as well?
08:25Yes. I think this year, 2025 has been, I think the overused word is an unprecedented year for the region.
08:35Challenges from Washington, you know, the Liberation Day Tariffs introduced earlier in the year.
08:41Yes, we started out our chairmanship quite, with a bang, with the Liberation Day Tariffs.
08:46Yes. And the border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand.
08:51But given the constraints of ASEAN where major decisions, major powers are still held by the individual member states.
09:02And I think us, Malaysia as the chairman this year has managed to, I think, meet the expectations or perhaps even exceed the expectations.
09:11Especially in the early part of the year when the Liberation Day Tariffs were rolled out, ASEAN managed to project unity in their response.
09:22None of the member states decided to retaliate against the US.
09:26But all countries chose to negotiate.
09:29Negotiate.
09:30Of course they negotiated independently because the mandate is with the member states to negotiate on tariffs.
09:36So, but yeah, so that's, it is a, I would say a good year.
09:41Have a good year.
09:42Yeah.
09:43Well, we expanded ASEAN with the membership, the ascension of Timor Leste as an 11th member of ASEAN.
09:48Do you see Timor Leste's ascension into ASEAN changing the direction of ASEAN anyway?
09:54Would ASEAN have to change to accommodate Timor Leste or Timor Leste might bring value to the bloc by being the 11th member?
10:01One value that Timor Leste brings to the organization is the expansion, the geographical expansion of ASEAN all the way to the Timor Sea.
10:13You know, an area you could argue under the influence of other major powers.
10:18So, having them with ASEAN is always good for the organization, having expanded the area.
10:26But more importantly, I think this is also a test for ASEAN member states.
10:31Whether they really subscribe to the idea of Prosper Thy Neighbor, given how Timor Leste is at a,
10:39still at a very challenging stage of nation building, and it requires a lot of support, a lot of help, especially from richer members of ASEAN.
10:50So, this is actually a real test for ASEAN member states in the coming years.
10:56In terms of Myanmar, addressing the Myanmar crisis, reducing the violence of Myanmar, did we make progress this year?
11:05Yeah.
11:06I think progress on that front, it's fair to say, has been limited.
11:12And it's not ASEAN's fault or anyone's fault rather, but I think there's a strong political will at the start of the year, at the start of the Malaysian Championship.
11:23But it's distracted by other issues, and given the limited resources and the constraints of ASEAN, I think there's only so much the current chair and the ASEAN member states could achieve this year.
11:36So, I guess it's up to the next chair to take the necessary actions.
11:41The test for the next chair is big, given the elections of the military junta is coming up.
11:47Yeah.
11:48So, what else are you watching for from this summit, Adip, if I may ask you?
11:52I mean, we are midway through, but, you know, in terms of all the big guns who are in town and all the sideline events that are happening,
12:00anything that's standing out to you that you're keeping a close eye on?
12:03Yeah.
12:04So, I think the summit is, if you look at the start of the Trump presidency, he started it a few months into his presidency.
12:13He launched the Liberation Day Tariffs, followed by negotiations, offers and counter offers with multiple countries, including ASEAN member states.
12:24So, this summit, in a way, is a follow-up to his action from when he launched Liberation Day Tariffs and also the negotiations.
12:33So, whether there's a new trade agreement signed here, these are all like a culmination of Trump's actions in April, in his quest for what you call a fairer trade deals with other countries.
12:49And also how ASEAN member states could defend their interests as much as possible.
12:55There was a concern before the summit began that the narrative of ASEAN would get drowned out by Trump mania when he was in town.
13:05Do you think that that had been the case?
13:08Has ASEAN been successful in making its voice heard despite the presence of all these big guns in town, each with their own agenda and their own narrative?
13:20I think getting the US president to attend is a success in itself.
13:24And of course, naturally, the media will be attracted to the US president.
13:28It was the same thing when Obama came, wasn't it?
13:30Yes.
13:31I mean, in 2015, when Malaysia was the chair, it was almost the same atmosphere, almost the same excitement.
13:39So, you can't really say that the US president is overshadowing the summit, but rather the US president's presence helped with amplifying the importance of ASEAN.
13:52Globally, right? So, world media are now paying attention to what's happening in Kuala Lumpur for the ASEAN Summit.
13:59In the minutes that we have left, can I ask you what you expect for the next year of ASEAN as the Philippines assumes chair of the bloc?
14:08Yes. So, now that this year, I mean, this chairmanship is almost over and I think Malaysia as the chair has managed to meet the expectations or maybe exceeded expectations in certain areas, especially in the border conflict and also the projecting unity in the Liberation Day tariffs.
14:27The challenge for the next chair is, of course, to maintain the unity in how it responds not just to the US but also to the other major power and also how the bloc can move forward in helping Cambodia and Thailand in maintaining the peace agreement.
14:46Absolutely. Yes. Well, just judging from the response of the Philippines delegation here, there's a lot of excitement for taking over the chair of ASEAN.
14:57I'm Melissa Idris. I'm going to take a quick break and we'll be back with more on Consider This. Thank you so much, Adam.
15:02Thanks for asking.
Recommended
11:51
|
Up next
24:48
3:27
25:31
11:01
30:20
29:47
57:18
14:24
13:23
2:01
1:00
Be the first to comment