00:00The far-right AFD currently has the highest approval rating in Germany.
00:04Its leader reportedly wants the United States out of Germany and seeks closer ties with Russia.
00:09Let's examine this issue today.
00:10First of all, recently, the AFD leader Alice Weidel said in an interview with Reuters
00:14that Germany should join hands with Russia to revitalize its economy, which is currently in a recession.
00:19She specifically said Germany should end its boycott of Russian oil and gas.
00:24Alice Weidel, AFD leader, argued cheap energy is vital for German manufacturing and must be secured.
00:30She also said this energy loss has set us back years.
00:33Hundreds of thousands of jobs are gone.
00:35Now we're dependent on the United States, which sells us energy at much higher prices.
00:40That's what she said.
00:41Since the war in Ukraine escalated, Germany has strongly supported international sanctions against Russia.
00:46Until 2022, before the sanctions fully began,
00:49Russia was responsible for more than a third of Germany's total crude oil imports
00:53and supplied over half of its natural gas imports, making it a key energy supplier.
00:57For a long time, Germany stabilized and actively imported cheap energy from Russia,
01:01processed it, and used it as a foundation to produce high-quality industrial goods,
01:05which it exported around the world, maintaining its status as a global manufacturing powerhouse.
01:09However, with the implementation of strong sanctions against Russia,
01:12this virtuous economic cycle was completely broken.
01:15When energy imports were cut off, production costs rose sharply,
01:18and the very foundation of German manufacturing, which operated on cheap energy,
01:22was shaken to its core.
01:24The sudden surge in energy prices directly increased production costs for companies,
01:28pushing the entire German economy into a serious state of stagnation and recession.
01:32As factory output dropped and corporate profits fell,
01:35the economic impact rapidly affected the labor market.
01:38Large-scale restructuring is happening across industries,
01:41and even Volkswagen, Germany's top carmaker,
01:44faces a serious situation considering laying off up to 100,000 employees
01:48because of a management crisis.
01:50But that's when AFD started to really dig into this issue.
01:54They began to approach it with a very simple logic,
01:56saying that these economic difficulties could be solved by joining hands with Russia.
02:01As a result, AFD established a strong base to grow its political influence.
02:05The ruling coalition led by Chancellor Friedrich Mertz,
02:08the Christian Democratic Union, and the Christian Social Union
02:11is struggling as it loses public support.
02:13And in that gap, AFD is securing popular support
02:16and firmly establishing itself as the influential second-largest party.
02:20The results of a recent public opinion poll
02:22conducted by the Institute for Personnel Sociology
02:24at the request of the Baltic Times
02:25clearly show this seismic shift in the political landscape.
02:28The CDU and CSU alliance,
02:30made up of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union,
02:33had a 25% approval rating, down one point from the previous survey.
02:37The AFD has held a steady 26% approval rating for months,
02:41outpacing the coalition government.
02:43The Social Democratic Party is a core party in the coalition,
02:46with 16% approval,
02:47while the Green Party and Left Party have 11% and 10% respectively.
02:52Additionally, as party approval ratings fluctuate,
02:54public sentiment toward Chancellor Friedrich Mertz is quickly declining.
02:5767% of respondents in the survey said they were dissatisfied
03:01with Chancellor Mertz's way of running the government,
03:03which is an increase of 5 percentage points
03:05compared to the survey conducted two weeks ago.
03:0710% of respondents withheld judgment or had no opinion,
03:10while just 23% were satisfied with the Chancellor's performance,
03:14down 5 points from two weeks ago.
03:17Both the Chancellor and the entire German government
03:19are viewed very negatively by the public.
03:21The percentage of people who are dissatisfied
03:23with the overall administration of the current German government
03:26has increased by two percentage points to 68% compared to before.
03:30Only 22% of respondents were satisfied
03:33with the government's administration,
03:34down three points indicating serious distrust and hostility
03:37toward the ruling coalition among German voters.
03:40The idea of the AFD coming to power was once unlikely,
03:43but now it's becoming a real possibility.
03:46A very radical aspect of the policies proposed
03:48by the Alternative for Germany, or AFD,
03:51is that they are strongly demanding the withdrawal
03:53of U.S. troops stationed in Germany.
03:54According to a report by the Miami Herald,
03:57Tino Kripala, the co-leader of the AFD,
03:59officially stated at an East German party meeting
04:01that Germany should begin by withdrawing U.S. troops
04:03stationed in the country,
04:04and move away from its traditional dependence on the U.S.
04:07to establish an independent diplomatic course.
04:09The AFD is pursuing a pro-Russian energy policy
04:11while also insisting that U.S. military forces
04:14should be removed from German territory.
04:16Currently, there are about 40,000 U.S. troops
04:19stationed on German soil,
04:20which accounts for nearly half of all U.S. military personnel
04:23deployed throughout Europe.
04:24Ramstein Air Base in Germany is a major hub
04:27for NATO's air operations and air defense,
04:30and also supports key military missions in the Middle East.
04:33Co-leader Kripala pointed out that Germany
04:35should not be unwillingly drawn
04:37into other countries' international disputes,
04:39and called for the complete withdrawal
04:40of foreign troops from Germany,
04:42as well as the removal of deployed nuclear weapons.
04:44He emphasized that such strong measures
04:46are the true starting point for Germany
04:48to free itself from external pressure
04:50and secure its own political autonomy.
04:52Along with this, Kripala directly mentioned
04:54the actual case where Spain proposed
04:55allowing U.S. military aircraft
04:57to pass through its airspace.
04:58He noted that, similar to Spain,
05:00European countries are increasingly distancing themselves
05:02from U.S.-led military actions.
05:04He went on to emphasize once again
05:06that Europe must break away
05:07from the existing security framework
05:09dependent on the United States,
05:10and independently establish
05:11its own security strategy on the continent.
05:13From the perspective of Russian President Putin,
05:15the phenomenon of Germany turning toward
05:17a pro-Russian stance
05:18is an event that brings enormous
05:20strategic advantages diplomatically.
05:21Germany is the largest economic powerhouse
05:23within the European Union,
05:25and is the key country driving
05:26the entire manufacturing and industrial base
05:28of the European continent.
05:29If Germany, which serves as the central axis
05:31of the European Union,
05:33wavers and shifts to a pro-Russian stance,
05:35the entire framework of unified diplomatic support
05:38and sanctions against Russia,
05:39maintained by EU member states,
05:41will inevitably be seriously weakened.
05:43A shift in stance by Germany,
05:45this historic economic powerhouse,
05:47will ripple through other European countries'
05:49Russia policies and could undermine
05:51the EU's unified response system.
05:53For example, Hungary's pro-Russian actions
05:55have already caused various EU policies
05:58aimed at pressuring Russia to be blocked.
06:00Russia could use this situation
06:01to reduce Western economic pressure
06:03and divide Europe,
06:05shaping a more favorable international environment
06:07for itself.
06:08Even a single policy change by Germany
06:10can greatly shake Europe's political
06:11and economic unity,
06:12which means the realization
06:14of the diplomatic structure
06:15that Russia ideally desires.
06:17However, even though the AFD
06:18is recording high approval ratings,
06:20whether it can actually take power
06:21and govern Germany
06:22requires consideration from multiple angles.
06:25Currently, the mainstream political circles
06:26in Germany are strongly maintaining
06:28the so-called firewall principle,
06:30which means they will not form
06:31a coalition government
06:31with the far-right party AFD
06:33in any form.
06:34Because Germany has a parliamentary system,
06:36even if a party comes in first place
06:37in the election,
06:38if it does not secure a majority of seats,
06:40forming a coalition with other parties
06:42is essential.
06:43Since major parties like
06:44the Christian Democratic Union
06:45refuse to work with the AFD,
06:47even if the AFD gets the highest approval,
06:49major institutional barriers
06:51prevent it from forming
06:52a coalition government and ruling.
06:54However, some analysts suggest
06:56that if the AFD's approval ratings
06:57continue to rise as they are now
06:59and public pressure increases,
07:00cracks could appear
07:01in the established party's refusal
07:03to form coalitions.
07:04If this firewall begins to break down
07:06from the stage of forming
07:07local governments
07:07or during local elections,
07:09then it cannot be completely ruled out
07:11that this change could also occur
07:12on the central political stage.
07:14Additionally, as social anxiety
07:15over immigration grows across Europe,
07:17anti-immigrant sentiment is spreading.
07:19Germany is also part of this European trend,
07:21with immigrant issues
07:22becoming major national concerns.
07:25AFD is strengthening its political position
07:27by taking advantage of voters' aversion to
07:29and anxiety about immigrants.
07:31Recent immigrant-related terrorist incidents
07:34and worsening public security in Europe
07:35are driving anti-immigrant sentiment.
07:38Violent and terrorist acts
07:40by some immigrants
07:41have made the public feel less safe
07:43and increased distrust
07:44in the government's immigration control.
07:46Additionally, the incident
07:48where many illegal Moroccan immigrants
07:49stormed the Spanish-Seyouta border
07:51in North Africa
07:52shocked European voters.
07:53Tens of thousands of illegal immigrants
07:56crossing the border at once
07:57made it seem like
07:58Europe's border control system
08:00was failing.
08:01AFD is highlighting these incidents
08:03and sharply criticizing
08:04the current ruling power's
08:05weak immigration policies.
08:07They want stricter border controls,
08:09tougher action on illegal immigrants,
08:11and stronger deportation policies,
08:13prioritizing national security
08:14and citizen safety.
08:15Voters unhappy with higher private costs
08:18and crime linked to immigration
08:19are responding to AFD's
08:21strict anti-immigration promises.
08:23If conflicts over immigrants persist in Europe
08:26and border management issues arise,
08:28AFD, focused on anti-immigration policies,
08:30will likely gain more support
08:32from concerned voters
08:33and see its approval ratings rise.
08:35However, despite these possibilities,
08:37it is extremely difficult in reality
08:39for AFD to secure a majority on its own
08:41or to reach an agreement
08:42with mainstream parties
08:43to form a government.
08:44This is because strong checks
08:46against far-right parties
08:47are firmly in place
08:48within the German political sphere,
08:50and there is still strong public aversion
08:52and institutional barriers.
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