00:00Germany's new parliament held its first session this Tuesday, following last month's snap
00:05election that came after the previous coalition collapsed.
00:08The new Bundestag looks set for a turbulent term after the conservative CDU-CSU stormed
00:14to victory under would-be Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
00:18He's ruled out working with the second-placed Alternative for Germany, or AfD, party that
00:23doubled its seats for the strongest showing of the far right since the Second World War
00:27and also won't work with the resurgent far left, meaning his only chance of forming a
00:31government seems to be teaming up with the centre-left Social Democrats.
00:36More on this, here's James Fassina.
00:40Six hundred and thirty MPs arrived for their first session at the Bundestag in Berlin since
00:45February's elections.
00:47Among them, 208 are from the conservative Christian Democratic and Christian Social
00:52Unions, the CDU and CSU.
00:57More than 152 members are from the far-right AfD, or Alternative for Germany party.
01:03Having doubled its seats, the AfD has become the country's second-biggest force in parliament,
01:08but that force suffered a first setback this Tuesday after it failed to win any top positions.
01:13A result of what has become known as the firewall, which sees parties from across the spectrum
01:18join forces to keep the AfD at bay.
01:24The AfD has doubled in size and is stronger than ever before.
01:27Your tricks, ladies and gentlemen, will not prevent our rise.
01:30But the long-term strength of that firewall will be tested, as one in five Germans cast
01:36their vote in favour of the party 12 years after it was created.
01:40AfD are to be given more speaking time and a larger share of state financing.
01:45CDU party chief Frederik Moers has been in talks with the centre-left to form a coalition.
01:52He hopes to find an agreement in time for Easter on the 20th of April.
01:59Welcome Ron, this is Jacob Ross, he's a research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations,
02:05where he focuses on the far-right and Franco-German relations.
02:09Before we get into the nitty-gritty of this, what are the chances of Moers managing to
02:15form a coalition right now? How are the talks going?
02:18Good evening. It looks pretty good, I would say.
02:22The CDU's negotiators are advancing in several working groups with the Social Democrats.
02:30So Moers' party is in talks with the second big coalition partner.
02:37There are non-papers circulating in Berlin already, so some people are leaking several
02:42papers from the negotiations to, I guess, exert pressure on the other side.
02:48Last week many media reports said that at several points the negotiations had stalled,
02:54but they are going forward and mainly so since Moers really doesn't have any alternative
02:59other than the Social Democratic SPD.
03:02Now the main headline as people watch around the world is this rise of the far-right,
03:08particularly concerning for some as the largest showing since the Second World War, as we've mentioned.
03:16Why has there been this surge of popularity in Germany?
03:20Well, I mean, that's the big question to be answered in the next Bundestag really as well.
03:24And that was the main question asked in German media today by commentators and politicians
03:30alike in the new Bundestag since the last coalition government with three parties didn't
03:36manage to curb down support for AfD. On the contrary, the party doubled these past three years.
03:43And if you saw the images from the new German parliament, the Bundestag today, with this
03:48very big group on the far-right with the AfD, it's very concerning to many people.
03:54Now reasons, I think, that were discussed these past weeks prior to the election were
04:00interior security mainly, the concern of many Germans about migration and the impression
04:06that further governments have not managed to curb down illegal migration, illegal entry
04:12into Germany. Merz has promised to change something prior to the election.
04:17And now he needs to push his demands through in very, in this particular point,
04:24difficult negotiations with the Social Democrats that are much more reluctant
04:30to implement harsher measures on Germany's borders.
04:34Until now, there's been this policy of a firewall or a Braudmauer, I think is how it's pronounced,
04:42in which all parties refused any dealings with the far-right, but it's becoming increasingly
04:47difficult given that they've doubled their seats above 150 now, I believe.
04:52I mean, will it hold, this firewall?
04:55Well, at the state level in Germany, in Berlin, yes, I think so, it will hold for the next
05:03month and years, but on the local level, we have already seen many breaches, really,
05:08in the Braudmauer, in local parliaments, in communal parliaments, in certain cities.
05:14Other parties have voted together with the AfD in certain questions, and not only
05:20the conservatives, really, but also the Social Democrats and the Greens at times.
05:25But yes, it's a crucial question for German democracy, for German politics going forward.
05:33Merz, the very possible or probable next chancellor, has tied his personal career
05:41and destiny as the head of the CDU Conservative Party to this very question.
05:46But yes, we will have to see how things turn out.
05:49And I mean, certainly four years from now, in the next Bundestag election, if the AfD
05:56has not diminished, but has further gained votes, it will become more and more difficult
06:03to keep this Brandmauer or firewall standing.
06:07But, you know, looking at it from the other side as well, I mean, they did come out as
06:12the second biggest party in a democratic election.
06:15And yet we have seen how they are marginalized.
06:18We see that Alexander Goland, the oldest member of parliament, typically he would be
06:23the father of the house who launches parliament, and he hasn't had that.
06:27And the Speaker of the House or President of Parliament, Julia Klocke, she was pressured
06:32not to introduce herself to the AfD.
06:36Is this not playing into the hands of them, saying that they're being marginalized
06:41to a certain extent?
06:42I think it is.
06:43I mean, and that's why many people said that the problems that led to the AfD becoming
06:48so strong need to be solved.
06:49There's really no other solution.
06:51Otherwise, the AfD will further gain seats and it will become more and more difficult
06:56to keep them behind the Brandmauer or even to see a majority rising on the other side
07:01of the Brandmauer, which would be the democratic worst case scenario, really.
07:05But yes, as the examples that you pointed to, Julia Klöckner being pressured to not
07:12going to the new AfD group, which is the biggest opposition group in this new parliament,
07:18not presenting herself.
07:19The fact that Alexander Gauland wasn't opening this new session are all signs of weakness,
07:25I think, for the remaining parties, since they have to change rules.
07:30They have to ignore certain rules to keep the AfD out of these, not necessarily power
07:35positions, but symbolic positions.
07:38And that's what most commentators also observed in this first session today, that the next
07:45Bundestag will become more conflictual with the AfD, demanding these rights and being
07:50a lot more present also in public discourse.
07:53And not only have they doubled their representation in parliament, their views have also got more
07:58extreme, haven't they?
07:59Well, that's the main difference that many people point to when they compare the situation
08:04in France, for instance, with the Rassemblement National, that over the years, at least that's
08:09the outside impression, has become less radical, that Marine Le Pen did everything to give
08:15the sense of de-radicalisation of the party, especially in parliament, with toning down
08:22the critique and the discussions, whereas the AfD, specifically because they are behind
08:30this firewall, this Brandmauer, has turned more radicalised by the years.
08:37If we quickly remember how the party was found in 2013 against the euro crisis, the debt
08:44crisis policies of Angela Merkel as a party of conservative economics professors, and
08:50nowadays includes figures like Björn Höcke, who is seen widely as a right-wing extremist
08:57and maybe even a neo-Nazi figure, that's how the AfD has developed and it's a very
09:03different story than the one that we observe in France, for example, with the Rassemblement
09:08National.
09:09And we've seen in other European countries where the far right has risen, I'm thinking
09:14about Romania, for example, there's been talks of Russian influence in the votes.
09:19Is there any hint of that with the German vote?
09:22There has been travels, at least for certain members of parliament, there have been visits
09:28to Russia and also to the occupied regions of Ukraine, of eastern Ukraine, where Russian
09:36troops are occupying these territories.
09:39There have been rumours at times that Russian intelligence is trying to manipulate and penetrate
09:45into party ranks and into groups that are surrounding the parliament, since the AfD
09:52is the parliamentary arm, so to say, of this right-wing movement in Germany, which is much
09:58bigger, however, and I guess that will be another big concern going forward in the new
10:04Bundestag, in the parliament, since in some groups parliamentarians need to get security
10:10clearances, for instance, since they get access to classified documents, and that's
10:15a big question right now, since, I mean, Ukraine is at war with Russia, but many other countries,
10:20especially in Eastern Europe, but also Germany, are feeling more and more threatened by Russia
10:25and need to keep this circle secure.
10:30All right, thank you very much for that analysis, and we'll continue to follow all the latest
10:34from the German election.
10:36Thank you for being with us.
10:37Time now for a short break.
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