00:00Russia's state news agency has published an article with a very dangerous headline.
00:03Another Russian special military operation is coming.
00:05This time, it'll be very short, that's what it says.
00:07But what's even more surprising is,
00:09the target of this article was not Ukraine, but Lithuania.
00:11The state news agency published an article containing this content,
00:14but it was immediately deleted.
00:15Today, let's take a closer look at this.
00:16Right away, let's take a look.
00:18First, let's see what was actually said.
00:19The state news agency, Rai, published an article with a headline.
00:22Russia is facing another special military operation, and it will be very short.
00:25This article was written directly by the editor-in-chief.
00:27According to the article, Russia's new attack target was identified as Lithuania.
00:31The article came out right after the Lithuanian parliament lifted the ban on deploying nuclear weapons.
00:35They compared Lithuania to Ukraine and said that if a conflict breaks out,
00:38Russia could use nuclear missiles without deploying ground troops.
00:41Actually, you need to look at this in the context of previous events.
00:43Intelligence agencies from Denmark and the Czech Republic have raised the possibility
00:47that Russia might launch a small-scale attack to test NATO's unity.
00:50And Western media are also reporting that Russia could carry out a small-scale attack
00:54on the Baltic states to test NATO's response.
00:56And if NATO's response is very strong, Russia might launch an even larger attack.
01:00We should also pay attention to the fact that the head of the US CIA flew to Russia
01:03and warned them not to attack NATO countries.
01:05But in that situation, even a report like this came out from Russia's state news agency,
01:09so it's quite concerning.
01:11On top of that, even more shocking news has come in.
01:13This article was deleted.
01:14It was taken down after just a few hours.
01:16Then Ria Novosti explained that
01:17The article does not reflect Russia's editorial policy or national policy.
01:22Meanwhile, we should also take a look at the situation in Lithuania.
01:25The threat of war is growing in Lithuania.
01:27Currently, the Lithuanian government is preparing an evacuation plan for its citizens
01:30in case of war with Russia.
01:31Mondaga Sinkovicius, Lithuania.
01:33The Prime Minister said that even if they are attacked by Russia, they will never surrender.
01:36He also said that if their country is attacked, they will engage in combat.
01:39He mentioned that they are also preparing for an evacuation order
01:41and that residents living on the coast should be ready.
01:43They plan to use ships to evacuate residents to Poland or Sweden.
01:46And people living in areas adjacent to Poland will be evacuated by land to Poland.
01:49The Polish military and the Polish government are also expected to cooperate with this plan.
01:52Of course, those who are near the border with Belarus,
01:54people living in the eastern part of Lithuania, near the border with Belarus,
01:57will be moved directly to major cities and the capital, Vilnius, all at once.
02:00In addition, there have been reports of military movements.
02:02Germany is also responding to the changing security situation in Europe.
02:05In response, Germany has decided to permanently station a combat brigade
02:08of about 5,000 troops in Lithuania.
02:10By the end of 2027, they are expected to achieve full operational capability.
02:14This German brigade is stationed near the Suwałki Gap.
02:16Lithuania is also expanding its own defense capabilities.
02:18This year, it has increased its defense budget to 5.4% of GDP
02:21and is building a division-level unit at the national level.
02:24In the energy sector, Lithuania is also reducing its dependence on Russia.
02:27President Norseda explained that Lithuania began importing American LNG in 2017,
02:31and currently about 70% of its LNG supply comes from the United States.
02:34A battalion from the U.S. 1st Infantry Division is scheduled to be deployed to Lithuania,
02:38although it is not yet known which battalion it will be.
02:41It is from the 1st Infantry Division.
02:42It is highly likely that it will be the 1st Armored Mechanized Battalion,
02:45which consists of two tank companies and one mechanized infantry company.
02:48The other battalions of the 1st Armored Division, the 1st Armored Brigade,
02:51are planned to be stationed in Poland.
02:53The president of Lithuania reportedly sent two letters to President Trump
02:56during events held on the occasion of the United Nations General Assembly,
02:59requesting the continued presence of U.S. troops.
03:01He also stated that Lithuania is ready to provide very active support as a host country
03:06if U.S. troops remain stationed there.
03:08Russian covert operations and sabotage against Lithuania continue.
03:11Just last week, a drone entered Lithuanian airspace and NATO forces shot it down.
03:15As a result, there were disruptions to flight operations.
03:17The airport operator stated that this was a hybrid attack carried out by Belarus.
03:21Also, Martínez Cattels, the Minister of the Interior,
03:24revealed that there was an attack on a system managed by the Ministry of Information and Communications.
03:28The hackers gained unauthorized access to the EPIKIS information system,
03:33which provides public services such as issuing personal and other documents and consultations
03:37to Lithuanian citizens and foreigners.
03:38The EPIKIS system stores archived data on foreigners who have applied for Lithuanian citizenship.
03:43There was also an attempted hacking of the National Tax Service.
03:46Meanwhile, Russia has shown that it could make Warsaw disappear within three days.
03:50Nikolai Patrashev, an aide at the Kremlin, recently said in an interview with Russia's TASS news agency
03:55that if Poland enters into a military conflict with Russia,
03:58they will mobilize all available forces and means,
04:01warning that Warsaw would cease to exist within two or three days.
04:04So why is Russia targeting Lithuania?
04:06Here, we need to look at a map, the Subauki Corridor.
04:10The Subauki Corridor refers to a land connection of about 100 kilometers
04:13between the borders of Lithuania and Poland.
04:15To understand this area, we need to look at the surrounding terrain.
04:18To the northwest is Russia's Kaliningrad,
04:20and to the east is Belarus, Russia's ally.
04:23Between them is the area where Lithuania and Poland meet.
04:25This is the Subauki Corridor.
04:27The main reason this area is important is because it serves as a land corridor
04:31connecting the Baltic states with the rest of the NATO member countries,
04:34Lithuania and Latvia.
04:36Estonia is a NATO member, but geographically there are limited land routes
04:39connecting it to other NATO countries.
04:41It connects to NATO countries in the west and south through Poland.
04:44Therefore, maintaining the land connection of the Subauki Corridor
04:47is directly related to how reliably ground troops, equipment, ammunition,
04:50and supplies like fuel can be transported to support the Baltic states.
04:54Especially in a military crisis, how you move troops and equipment is just as important
04:58as where and how many troops you deploy.
05:00Even if combat units are stationed in Lithuania, if there isn't a secured route for reinforcements
05:04and equipment to move in, it becomes a serious problem.
05:06It could become difficult to sustain long-term operations.
05:09That's why when NATO makes defense plans for the Baltic region, they consider the roads,
05:13railways, and surrounding infrastructure of the Subauki Gap together.
05:17Another important point is that this area is a border region.
05:19Around the Subauki Gap, there is the border between Poland and Lithuania,
05:22and nearby are Belarus and Kaliningrad.
05:24When military tensions rise, border control, and troop movements,
05:27it's a region where civilian transportation and military logistics can be affected at the same time.
05:32That's why NATO is interested in increasing troop mobility
05:34and the usability of infrastructure in this area.
05:36What's important here is that if a war breaks out,
05:38the Subauki Gap itself doesn't necessarily mean it's an area where battles will definitely take place.
05:42Even in currently available public materials,
05:44the importance of this region is explained more from the perspective of NATO's defense,
05:47reinforcement, and troop movement rather than any specific attack plan.
05:50Therefore, when understanding the Subauki Gap,
05:52it's more important to look at how reliably NATO can send troops and equipment to the Baltic states in a
05:56crisis,
05:57rather than focusing on who might attack this area.
05:59But here, there's one thing we definitely need to distinguish.
06:02Just because an article in Ria Novosti mentions a military operation against Lithuania,
06:06it doesn't mean that the Russian government is actually planning an attack.
06:08We shouldn't take it to mean that an attack plan has been finalized.
06:10This article wasn't an official statement from the Russian government
06:13or an announcement from the Ministry of Defense.
06:15It was written by the editor-in-chief,
06:16and Ria Novosti also stated that the article did not reflect the editorial staff's opinion,
06:20editorial policy, or Russia's national policy,
06:22and they deleted the article.
06:23In fact, it's been confirmed that the article was deleted just a few hours after it was posted.
06:26This part is quite important.
06:28The fact that it was published by Russia's state news agency does give it significant weight,
06:31but there's a big difference between an opinion piece posted by a media outlet and...
06:34I mean, military operation officially decided by the Russian government.
06:37They are completely different in nature.
06:38So what we can confirm at this point is that an article was actually published by Russia's state news agency
06:41mentioning Lithuania as a potential target for Russian military operations,
06:44even raising the possibility of using missiles and nuclear weapons.
06:47On the other hand, it does not mean that the Russian government has decided to attack Lithuania or...
06:51There is no confirmation that they have actually begun preparing for an operation.
06:53This distinction must be made clear.
06:55However, we cannot take this matter lightly,
06:57because at a time when tensions between Russia and Lithuania are rising,
07:00the very fact that such content has appeared publicly is something that deserves attention.
07:03In particular, this article was written in connection with the Lithuanian parliament's discussion
07:07of constitutional provisions related to nuclear weapons,
07:09and it specifically mentioned how Russia could respond in the event of an actual military conflict
07:13between Russia and Lithuania.
07:15In other words, while this article cannot be seen as an official order for an attack by Russia,
07:19it does confirm that arguments mentioning military conflict with Lithuania
07:22are being circulated publicly within Russia.
07:24So what is needed right now is not to assume that Russia will immediately attack Lithuania,
07:27but to distinguish between what is official national policy
07:30and what are claims made by the media or individuals.
07:33This RIA article alone does not prove that Russia has decided to attack.
07:36However, since such content has appeared,
07:38it is necessary to separately verify and monitor the facts
07:41in the various security developments actually taking place around Lithuania.
07:44However, apart from that,
07:46it is true that Russia continues to carry out sabotage against NATO,
07:49so we need to keep a close watch on Russia.
07:51It seems that as time goes by,
07:52Russia's covert operations are becoming more and more serious.
07:55Russia's sabotage is getting stronger,
07:57which makes me wonder if Russia still has enough capacity to endure.
