00:00This is Apropos. Germany's far-right AFD party looks poised to capture a historic one in
00:08five ballots as voters in Germany prepare to head to the polls this Sunday. The election
00:13is expected to deliver victory for the Conservative bloc and a strong second place showing for
00:18the alternative for Germany. With a series of violent attacks linked to foreign-born
00:24suspects compounding public concern over security, immigration has been a central issue during
00:30the campaign. As Antony Kerrigan reports, health care staff are increasingly worried
00:35that the debate will make it harder to recruit skilled workers from abroad to fill a growing
00:40labour shortage.
00:42Dr Mario de la Piedra-Walter, a neurologist from Mexico, enjoys talking to his patients
00:49at this Berlin hospital. But he's been here a few years now and he feels the contrast
00:54between his and the German culture adds a warmth to their interactions.
01:01It took about two years to get my qualifications recognised here. In the end I think it's important
01:07to be able to speak the German language and as for medicine it doesn't change that much
01:12from one country to another. So that change was a bit easier.
01:19Nurse Santiago Lorenzo is new to the ward but described receiving a positive multicultural
01:25welcome on his arrival, with colleagues from a range of countries helping him with his
01:29German. 18% of the German population are immigrants and their hospitals are a microcosm. 15% of
01:37the country's health care workers hold foreign passports, including 5,000 Syrian doctors.
01:44The Berlin hospital's care director explains that Germany's ageing population makes immigration
01:49not an indulgence but a necessity.
01:52More people in an ageing society are in need of care and fewer and fewer young people are
01:58coming along and so one of our key priorities is recruiting skilled labour from abroad.
02:06He fears the current political rhetoric will deter talented foreign workers from choosing
02:10Germany. The head of the German Hospitals Association said that some 40,000 skilled
02:15workers would be needed every year to plug the demographic deficit. And it's not just
02:20health care. Logistics and construction too struggle to recruit and depend heavily on
02:25foreign workers.
02:27For more on what's at stake in Sunday's vote, let's bring in Ed Turner, Chair of the International
02:32Association for the Study of German Politics and co-director of the Aston Centre for Europe.
02:37Thank you so much for being with us on the programme this evening, Ed. So, as we've been
02:41saying, a series of attacks has put security and migration front and centre during this
02:48election campaign. Has it been the priority for voters? How exactly has it played out?
02:54What you say is absolutely right. There are two key issues in the campaign. One is the
03:00rather sluggish state of Germany's economy. And the second are issues around migration
03:05and security. And certainly it was interesting, for example, in one of the TV debates between
03:10Olaf Scholz and Friedrich Merz, the CDU-CSU's candidate, the centre-right candidate, about
03:15half the airtime was taken up talking about migration and security issues.
03:21And at the front-runner, you mentioned him there, Friedrich Merz, he actually sponsored
03:24a draft bill with the AFD with support from that party. Will that have helped or hindered
03:29his campaign?
03:30Well, that's right. He put it forward. And contrary to what he'd said previously, he
03:36was willing to accept that it might only pass with AFD votes. It wouldn't be fair to say
03:41the AFD sponsored it in any way. But I think at the time, that felt like a really big thing.
03:47It was to say it went against what Merz had said previously. It allowed the AFD to be
03:51seen to be having a more visible impact on German politics than had been the case here
03:56The polls really haven't shifted on this. The one change that we've seen, interestingly,
04:01in recent days, is that the far-left left party has been doing a bit better, perhaps
04:05as voters are more polarised in their responses to this.
04:09And Ed, the AFD wants to close German borders, leave the common European asylum policy. What
04:14are the other main parties' policies when it comes to immigration?
04:18Well, amongst the mainstream parties, they're all talking about reducing irregular migration.
04:26The clip earlier that you showed about labour migration was interesting. And I think there's
04:29an acceptance that the migration of skilled workers to Germany is necessary. But they're
04:33talking about clamping down on irregular migration. They're all talking about increasing level
04:37of deportations. Merz wants to go further. He wants to see people turned back at the
04:44German border. He wants to see more internment of people with no right to be in Germany.
04:49And that brings with it a host of questions about the legality of that under European
04:53law. He does also talk about maybe rewriting some of the European rules on this as well.
04:59And the rise that we're seeing in support for the far-right, is that due to the issue
05:05of immigration of security, the policies that the party itself has? Or is it more to do
05:09with a general disillusionment with the traditional parties in Germany? What's behind it?
05:15Well, of course, these things play into each other. You've got a situation where all of
05:20the leading candidates in the election are relatively unpopular. You've got a situation
05:24where the economy has really been struggling. You've got a situation where the three-party
05:29coalition until November governed Germany has visibly been at odds within itself, lots
05:36of public arguments. So all of those have fuelled the unpopularity of the mainstream.
05:41But then on top of it, there is concern about migration, as well as a pretty bleak economic
05:47background and backdrop. And so, you know, put all of those things together. These are
05:52quite propitious circumstances for the far-right to cast its appeal.
05:56And in terms of European policy, how much is at stake with these elections? A strong
06:01government in Germany, it is needed, particularly when Europe is dealing with the various threats
06:06posed by Donald Trump. Also, when it comes to finding a peace deal for Ukraine.
06:11Well, I think that's absolutely right. And I mean, let me flip it around. Imagine if
06:16you have a situation in Germany where no government has formed for months on end, where there's
06:19a series of bickering, where, heaven forbid, there's talk about new elections. Those things
06:24with a void at the heart of Europe would be extremely damaging at a moment when it's very
06:29obvious that Europe needs to pull together. Equally amongst the mainstream parties on
06:34European questions, there's a relatively strong consensus. I think there's also a feeling
06:37that Germany has not been punching at its weight over the course of the last parliament
06:42and that there is an opportunity to reset some important relationships and start afresh.
06:46Anna, those mainstream parties, you mentioned them there, you've kind of suggested perhaps
06:50coalition talks could be on the line a little further down. All the parties, the mainstream
06:55ones saying that they won't work with the AFD. Is that something that's likely to change
06:59depending on how the cards fall following this election?
07:04I think there's absolutely no prospect of mainstream parties looking to bring the AFD
07:08into government. This is a party which is really extreme, puts the word re-migration
07:13in its manifesto, talks about Germany leaving the European Union, where one of its regional
07:18leaders has twice been prosecuted for using banned Nazi symbols. They're not to be compared
07:22with the parties of Giorgio Maloney or Marine Le Pen. However, that doesn't change the fact
07:28it'll be difficult to form a coalition. I think people worry about what would happen
07:32if coalition talks between mainstream parties broke down.
07:36You mentioned kind of rhetoric there, propaganda perhaps. How has language itself been used
07:40in this debate? The far right talk a lot about re-migration, which actually seems to mean
07:47mass deportation, but they're not exactly calling it that, are they? So how is language
07:52playing into perhaps moving this party more towards the mainstream, or is it?
07:59Well I think what the language shows, and it's important not just to focus on the language
08:03of the far right, but of the mainstream, is that German politics, mainstream politics
08:07has shifted on these issues, and in a way which certainly takes a harsher tone on migration
08:12more generally. And indeed, sometimes if you look at the way that Friedrich Merz cast his
08:17appeal to federal parliament in the debate that you mentioned, when in the end his parliamentarians
08:22voted with the AFD, it's really quite robust, really quite strong language, which we wouldn't
08:30have expected to hear from mainstream German politicians in recent years.
08:34And the main candidates in the running for Chancellor, they're currently of course taking
08:38part in the final TV debate ahead of the vote on Sunday. Will that make any difference to
08:44how voters decide to cast their ballots on the day? What kind of an impact are these
08:48debates having on the campaign?
08:51The TV debates are having a minimal impact. Voters often just look at them and feel themselves
08:55confirmed in their views. Maybe all left shorts in the first one, which I think was the most
08:59widely watched, had a slightly better night than some expected, got slightly better ratings,
09:04but the polls didn't really shift at all. And one of the remarkable things about this
09:09campaign is that the polls have been quite stable. And of course, in any case, many Germans
09:13have already cast their votes by post. So it certainly looks nailed on that the Christian
09:17Democrats will come out on top in the election. It looks almost certain that the AFD will
09:22come second.
09:23But the uncertainty that exists is around which of the smaller parties will achieve
09:28the 5% which is necessary to gain seats. And that in turn will play into coalition arithmetic.
09:33So it's still going to be an interesting night on Sunday. But it's very clear that the CDU-CSU
09:37will come out on top.
09:39And just finally, Friedrich Merz, he is a clear backer of Ukraine. He's been targeted
09:44by pro-Russian disinformation during this campaign. What kind of an impact is that going
09:50to have on voters? And what does that really say about how important this election is really
09:56to the rest of Europe?
09:59Well, disinformation, indeed, Russian disinformation is something of a feature of election campaigns,
10:05not just in Germany. And clearly, it's been one of a number of factors boosting AFD support,
10:14but I think not the main one, to be honest. I think we've covered the reasons why the
10:17AFD has been gaining ground.
10:20Friedrich Merz will continue to try and keep his nerve, try and continue to lead his party's
10:27campaign to a successful conclusion. They won't get a fantastic result by historical
10:31standards, but they're very likely to lead the next government.
10:34Ed, we'll have to leave it there for now. We'll see how it all plays out on Sunday.
10:38Thanks so much for joining us. That's Ed Turner, Chair of the International Association for
10:42the Study of German Politics. He's also co-director of the Aston Centre for Europe.
10:47Well, that's it from us for now.
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