00:00Saudi Arabia has finally drawn its sword!
00:02They are planning to launch an offensive against the Houthis,
00:04mobilizing up to 100,000 troops!
00:06In fact, the operation hasn't even started yet,
00:08but if this kind of information is already spreading to YouTubers on the other side of the world,
00:11it seems like their security is really poor.
00:13Anyway, Saudi Arabia is preparing a large-scale offensive against the Houthis.
00:17Saudi Arabia is considering launching a large-scale offensive against the Houthi rebels,
00:20mobilizing up to 100,000 ground troops within a few weeks.
00:23According to Reuters,
00:24Saudi Arabia is preparing an operation to regain control of the Bab al-Mandev strait,
00:28a key strategic point in the Red Sea that was taken by the Houthi rebels last September.
00:32It is reported that Saudi Arabia has concluded that if the Houthi rebels control the Bab al-Mandev strait,
00:36it would be impossible to enter new negotiations, as it is a critical location.
00:40According to officials involved in planning the operation,
00:43up to 100,000 troops could be mobilized depending on the scale of the operation.
00:46The timing of the operation is expected to range from as early as within a week
00:49to after the U.S. midterm elections in early November.
00:51In this operation, the Yemeni ground forces under Saudi command will take the lead,
00:55while the Saudi Air Force will provide air support.
00:57You might ask whether the United States will be directly involved.
01:00Currently, since the United States does not want to open an affront,
01:03it is limiting its involvement to providing military intelligence,
01:05including target information and advisory support.
01:08It is also reported that President Trump has not approved Crown Prince Bin Salman
01:11of Saudi Arabia's direct request for U.S. airstrike support.
01:14Also, Turkey and Pakistan, which have signed joint defense agreements with Saudi Arabia,
01:18are supplying military equipment.
01:20Pakistan has transported air defense systems and drones using four cargo planes.
01:24Currently, a military advisory group has been dispatched.
01:27In addition, 30,000 Pakistani troops are scheduled to carry out defense missions in Saudi Arabia
01:31and will also perform interception missions.
01:33France also announced that it would send defense systems and troops to Saudi Arabia
01:36to support the defense of the Red Sea port city of Yanbu.
01:38Former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Michael Latteni,
01:41assessed that Saudi Arabia is more likely to prioritize limited coastal recapture operations
01:45to secure control over the coastal areas in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait,
01:48rather than expanding the war throughout Yemen.
01:50The civil war in Yemen is intensifying significantly.
01:52The civil war, which had been in the stalemate for several years,
01:55is rapidly escalating to the level of a full-scale war.
01:57On top of that, since Saudi Arabia is deeply involved,
02:00the situation is escalating even further.
02:02The Houthi militia's broadcast channel, Al Masira,
02:04reported that at least three provinces, including the Yemeni capital Sana'a and Taiz, were bombed.
02:09Al Masira condemned this as Saudi aggression.
02:12Right now, battles are breaking out simultaneously on almost every front.
02:15The problem is the level of the Saudi Arabian military.
02:18The Saudi forces are weak.
02:20Far too weak.
02:20Far from fighting.
02:21When they encounter the enemy, they abandon their guns and tanks,
02:24they leave everything behind and run away.
02:25Saudi Arabia has spent enormous amounts on defense,
02:27bringing in the latest fighter jets, air defense systems,
02:30armored vehicles, and missile systems on a large scale.
02:32However, there have been ongoing assessments that there is a gap between the performance of their weapons
02:35and the actual capabilities their military shows on the battlefield.
02:38Behind this lies Saudi Arabia's unique military organizational structure.
02:42First of all, the Saudi military is not operated as a single unified military organization.
02:46In addition to the army, navy, and air force,
02:47there are also the National Guard, the Royal Guard, the Ministry of Interior,
02:50and its subordinate security agencies operating within separate structures.
02:53There are political reasons behind this structure.
02:55The main purpose is to prevent excessive concentration of power in any one military organization,
02:59and to maintain loyalty to the royal family.
03:01The problem is that during large scale operations, command structures, information sharing,
03:04and operational coordination between these various organizations can become complicated,
03:08especially when battles are prolonged.
03:09The ability to coordinate the roles and responsibilities of each organization within a single operational system
03:13becomes crucial.
03:14The fact that the National Guard and the regular army have different characteristics is also an important factor.
03:18The National Guard have played an important role in internal security missions,
03:21including the protection of the royal family and key facilities.
03:24The Royal Guard also has different missions and organizational characteristics compared to regular field forces.
03:28In this kind of structure, the military forces that respond to external threats to the nation
03:31and the security forces that maintain the stability of the regime can develop in different directions.
03:35Problems also arise in personnel management.
03:37Saudi Arabia has long purchased expensive weapons systems from abroad
03:40and secured equipment operation capabilities with the help of foreign instructors and technical personnel.
03:44However, in modern warfare, simply possessing equipment is not enough.
03:46Maintenance personnel, commanders, intelligence analysts, communication staff,
03:50and skilled non-commissioned officers and officers need to accumulate experience within the same system
03:54over a long period of time.
03:55Especially, complex weapons systems require repeated training and maintenance experience.
03:59If there aren't enough trained personnel, even if you possess expensive equipment,
04:02actual operational efficiency can decrease.
04:04Another characteristic of the Saudi military is that loyalty to the royal family
04:07serves as a very important standard within the military organization.
04:10Since the country's political system is centered around the royal family,
04:13the military also cannot freely manage personnel and organization
04:16without considering the stability of the regime.
04:18This may help with the political stability of the military organization,
04:20but it can also act as a limitation when it comes to training commanders
04:23based on expertise needed on the battlefield and developing long-term military doctrines.
04:26In addition, Saudi Arabia has developed its military power over a long period
04:30while avoiding situations where its own territory becomes a large-scale battlefield.
04:33Therefore, although Saudi Arabia has gained extensive experience operating advanced equipment
04:36through joint exercises with the United States and other allied countries,
04:38it is assessed that their experience in maintaining command structures
04:40while operating large-scale forces over extended periods in complex battlefields is limited.
04:43In modern warfare, rather than the performance of individual weapons,
04:46every process from intelligence gathering, target selection, order transmission,
04:49troop movements, supply to maintenance needs to be interconnected.
04:52In this process, if cooperation between organizations does not function properly,
04:55the overall efficiency of the military force can decrease.
04:57The fact that Saudi Arabia's defense budget is very large is a separate issue.
05:00Just because a lot of money is invested does not automatically result in high combat power.
05:04This is because the stage of purchasing weapons and the stage of independently operating
05:07and maintaining those weapons while developing tactics and doctrines are completely different.
05:11If Saudi Arabia considers large-scale ground operations in the future,
05:14the most important test is not the number of weapons they possess.
05:17The key will be how efficiently different military organizations can operate within a single operational system.
05:22Above all, even if Saudi Arabia launches a major offensive now,
05:25there are too many people who don't expect much.
05:27There was also the disgraceful behavior shown in September,
05:29and since they tend to run away instead of fighting,
05:31many people don't have high expectations.
05:33Then why is the Saudi military trying to launch an attack against the Houthi rebels?
05:36The key issue is not just the military one.
05:38For Saudi Arabia, it's because this is directly connected to their oil exports and the national economy.
05:42The Houthi rebels showed movements to take control of the coastal areas around the Babel-Mandeb Strait in September,
05:48and by securing some islands in the Red Sea, they greatly expanded their influence over this area.
05:52Because of this, there are now assessments that the Houthis have secured a position
05:55from which they can threaten ship navigation in the Babel-Mandeb Strait.
05:58The problem is that the main maritime transport routes in the Middle East are currently under pressure at the same
06:02time.
06:03With navigation through the Strait of Hormuz restricted,
06:05Saudi Arabia is now in a situation where it has to use alternative routes to export its crude oil.
06:09Saudi Arabia has the East-West Pipeline, which can transport crude oil from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea
06:13coast.
06:13By using this pipeline, it is possible to send crude oil to ports on the Red Sea side without passing
06:17through the Strait of Hormuz.
06:18For Saudi Arabia, this is an important export route that can be used when maritime transport routes are unstable.
06:23However, if it becomes difficult to properly use the Babel-Mandeb Strait as well, the problem becomes much bigger.
06:27Even if crude oil is sent to ports on the Red Sea coast, if it cannot pass through the Babel
06:31-Mandeb Strait,
06:32which is the southern exit of the Red Sea, there will be restrictions on sending crude oil to the Asian
06:35market.
06:36Especially Asia is an important export market for Saudi crude oil.
06:39If the route passing through the Babel-Mandeb Strait becomes unstable,
06:41ships may have to choose the much longer route around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of
06:44Africa.
06:45If this happens, even when transporting the same crude oil, the required sailing distance and time will increase significantly.
06:50The fuel, manpower, and insurance costs needed for ship operations may also rise.
06:55If the transportation period gets longer, ships may also be used less efficiently over the same period.
07:00For Saudi Arabia, it's important not only to produce crude oil, but also to reliably deliver the oil it produces
07:05to major consumer countries.
07:06Instability in the Babel-Mandeb Strait can put a burden on this export process.
07:09That's why we can say that Saudi Arabia's attempt to eliminate the Houthi's influence around the waters also includes economic
07:14considerations.
07:15Saudi Arabia must not only manage crude oil production, but also ensure its export routes remain stable.
07:20If both the Strait of Hormuz and the Babel-Mandeb Strait become unstable at the same time,
07:24the export routes available to Saudi Arabia will be greatly reduced.
07:26Especially if there are disruptions even in the crude oil export routes that use the Red Sea,
07:30the operation of Saudi Arabia's oil supply chain itself could become even more complicated.
07:34What's important here is the direction of Iran's involvement.
07:37As you all know, Iran has continuously supported the Houthi rebels.
07:40However, if Saudi Arabia launches a large-scale military operation here,
07:43Iran will definitely take some action regarding the Houthi rebels,
07:45and we need to watch closely to see what that action will be.
07:48Especially if the Houthis maintain their missile and drone operation capabilities,
07:51attacks on Saudi territory and major oil facilities could continue, and Iran might support this.
07:56On the other hand, although it's unlikely, if Iran were to directly deploy troops or military assets,
08:00the situation would move to a completely different stage.
08:02Currently, there are reports that Iran has proposed a political solution to the Houthi issue,
08:06so we need to watch closely to see the actual level of their involvement.
08:09However, what is certain is that the situation in the Middle East would change significantly
08:12depending on how Iran acts.
