00:00Currently, Taiwan has started stockpiling ammunition.
00:02They have begun stockpiling ammunition to prepare for a possible attack from China.
00:05Let's take a closer look at this issue today.
00:07Taiwan has decided to increase its ammunition stockpile from the previous 30 days' worth
00:10to 120 days' worth in order to prepare for the possibility of a blockade by the Chinese military.
00:14Accordingly, the purchase cost is expected to be about 1.176 trillion won.
00:17The Taiwanese military has launched an emergency ammunition replenishment plan
00:20and is expected to continue replenishing ammunition for 6 years until 2031.
00:23The Taiwanese military's plan to replenish ammunition like this is to prepare for a blockade by China.
00:27Since Taiwan is an island nation, if the Chinese military imposes a blockade,
00:30it won't be able to receive support from outside,
00:32and since the Chinese military could not only blockade but also attack,
00:35Taiwan is replenishing ammunition to be able to continue fighting.
00:37The ammunition being replenished is not limited to just regular rifle rounds.
00:41According to the actual plan, a variety of ammunition will be included,
00:43such as 120mm and 105mm tank shells,
00:4630mm autocannon rounds propellants used in 155mm shells,
00:49and high-performance explosives.
00:51This shows that the Taiwanese military is not just securing ammunition for specific weapon systems,
00:54but is also trying to replenish ammunition needed across the army's main combat systems.
00:58In particular, tank shells and 155mm shells are major types of ammunition
01:03that are continuously used in ground warfare,
01:05so it is important to secure a stable stockpile of them.
01:07Lieutenant General Won Wonchi,
01:08Director of Strategic Planning at Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense,
01:11also explained that as combat readiness training has become more frequent in recent years,
01:14the amount of ammunition consumed during actual training has increased.
01:17As training increases, the stockpile of ammunition decreases that much faster,
01:19so it has been determined that it is difficult to maintain inventory
01:22at the current rate of replenishment.
01:23Therefore, the Taiwanese military plans to purchase and replenish ammunition
01:26at a much faster pace going forward.
01:28The problem is that even if additional ammunition is secured,
01:30it can't be used immediately.
01:32Storage facilities to safely store the secured ammunition are also needed.
01:35The Taiwanese military plans to expand its ammunition storage capacity for this purpose.
01:38Starting next year, the army plans to invest about $4.18 billion Taiwan dollars
01:42to build six explosion-proof ammunition depots
01:44with a total capacity of 10,250 tons.
01:46In addition, if we include the ammunition depots currently under construction,
01:49the Taiwanese military's ammunition storage capacity is expected to increase
01:52by a total of 18,250 tons by 2033.
01:55As the types and quantities of ammunition increase,
01:58the facilities to store them are also being expanded accordingly.
02:00In other words, the Taiwanese military's current plan doesn't end with just purchasing ammunition,
02:04but is also moving toward expanding logistics facilities
02:06that can store and manage the acquired ammunition for the long term.
02:09Anyway, Taiwan has launched an emergency ammunition resupply plan,
02:12keeping in mind the possibility that China's military pressure
02:15could actually lead to conflict or a blockade.
02:17However, recent assessments coming out of the United States
02:19are pointing in a slightly different direction.
02:21According to a Reuters report,
02:22current and former senior U.S. officials say a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028
02:26is now less likely than previously thought.
02:29There has been ongoing analysis that China set a goal
02:31to have the capability to use force against Taiwan by 2027,
02:34the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army.
02:37However, U.S. officials believe that,
02:38given the current state of the Chinese military,
02:40it will not be easy to achieve this goal as scheduled.
02:42One of the main reasons for this U.S. assessment
02:44is the internal changes within the Chinese military.
02:46Since coming to power in 2012,
02:48President Xi Jinping has strongly pushed for eradicating corruption
02:50and establishing military discipline.
02:52Recently, this effort has expanded to include the top leadership of the Chinese military.
02:56As investigations and purges of high-ranking generals continue,
02:58analysts say there have been significant changes in the military command structure itself.
03:01In particular, the Central Military Commission,
03:03which is China's highest military command body,
03:05used to be composed of seven members.
03:06However, as high-ranking officials have recently come under investigation and scrutiny one after another,
03:10reports say that, excluding President Xi Jinping,
03:13only two current senior officials remain.
03:14In this situation, it is inevitable that forming a new leadership
03:17and stabilizing the internal command structure of the military will take time.
03:21U.S. authorities believe that this internal turmoil has affected the Chinese military's military preparedness
03:25and that they may not have been able to proceed with preparations to the extent originally planned.
03:29In addition, another variable is the 2028 Taiwanese presidential election.
03:32U.S. officials believe that the Chinese leadership may be more likely to first observe
03:36how the political situation in Taiwan changes,
03:38rather than immediately deciding on military action.
03:41Analysts say China may hope that,
03:43if pro-China forces come to power in Taiwan,
03:46it can pursue unification without military conflict.
03:49On the other hand, there are also observations that,
03:52if the Democratic Progressive Party comes to power again
03:54and President Lai Ching-te wins another term,
03:56China may raise stronger objections to Taiwan's political direction.
03:59A U.S. official warned that,
04:01if such results occur,
04:02the situation in Taiwan in 2028 could become very tense.
04:04Therefore, from the U.S. perspective,
04:06the key variable is not only the readiness of the Chinese military,
04:09but also how China assesses political changes in Taiwan.
04:12And in the U.S., there are also assessments that China currently does not have sufficient military capability to invade
04:17Taiwan.
04:17It's true that the Chinese leadership continues to maintain military options regarding Taiwan,
04:21but in reality, there are still quite a few military challenges that need to be resolved
04:23before they can actually start a large-scale war.
04:25In particular, one of the important lessons China has learned while observing the war in Ukraine
04:29and various military situations surrounding Iran is the burden of a prolonged war.
04:33If they fail to achieve their objectives in a short period after starting a war,
04:36there will be continuous strain on troops, weapons, ammunition, and supply systems,
04:40and it could also cause significant shocks to the economy and industry.
04:43For China, if it starts a war against Taiwan,
04:45the ability to make significant military gains in the early stages is bound to be extremely important.
04:50However, it is being said in the United States that the Chinese military is not yet fully prepared to support
04:54such operations,
04:55in particular, deploying large numbers of troops across the Taiwan Strait,
04:58conducting simultaneous operations at sea and in the air,
05:01and continuously bringing in reinforcements and supplies
05:03is a very complex military operation.
05:05A U.S. official pointed out that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
05:08would be one of the most difficult military operations for a modern military to carry out
05:11since the Normandy landings,
05:12and that there are still many military elements that have not yet been prepared.
05:16This doesn't mean that China lacks military power itself,
05:18but rather that against Taiwan,
05:20it needs to simultaneously develop several capabilities required
05:22to actually conduct a full-scale war.
05:24It also does not mean that President Xi Jinping has officially withdrawn the goal
05:27of acquiring the capability to use force against Taiwan by 2027.
05:30However, considering issues like corruption within the military,
05:33leadership reshuffles,
05:33and the burden that would arise if they had to conduct a large-scale war for an extended period,
05:37there are evaluations that say there are still quite a few problems to solve
05:39before choosing a full-scale war right away.
05:41That's why in the United States,
05:42there is analysis suggesting that instead of focusing only on the year 2027,
05:46we should also pay attention to the actual readiness level of the Chinese military
05:49and the political situation in Taiwan after 2028.
05:52But even so,
05:53Taiwan continues to prepare for war.
05:54Taiwan is urging the United States to approve the $14 billion arms sale as soon as possible.
05:58However, President Trump, who is watching the situation in China, keeps blocking this.
06:02The Trump administration approved a record-breaking $11 billion arms sale
06:05worth about $15 trillion won to Taiwan in December 2025,
06:09but has not approved the second package,
06:10the $14 billion arms sale, for two months now.
06:13Although the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasizes that U.S. support will continue,
06:17since the U.S. keeps delaying the arms sales like this,
06:20Taiwan seems to remain in an uneasy situation.
06:22On another front, there is also analysis
06:24that China is putting more effort into changing the perceptions and political atmosphere within
06:28Taiwanese society, rather than actually using military force.
06:31The Wall Street Journal reported on the 21st local time,
06:34that the Chinese leadership is trying to make Taiwanese residents question whether it is really
06:37meaningful to keep trusting the U.S. and standing up to China,
06:40by only using its policies when U.S. President Donald Trump is unpredictable.
06:43The important point here is that China does not directly demand a specific choice from the
06:46Taiwanese residents, which is a drawback.
06:48It means that by continuously highlighting the uncertainty about how long,
06:51and to what extent the U.S. will support Taiwan, China is approaching the issue in a way that
06:55weakens trust in the U.S. within Taiwanese society.
06:57The more difficult it becomes for Taiwan to be confident in U.S. support,
07:00the more public opinion may favor avoiding conflict with China,
07:03and China may judge that this atmosphere could create a favorable environment for unification in
07:07the long term.
07:07That's why China's activities related to Taiwan are not focused solely on the military field.
07:11It has been reported that China is continuously sending messages to Taiwanese society
07:15through the spread of information and dissemination of false information via social media,
07:19contact with political circles, and the use of cultural content.
07:22It is also noteworthy that China is promoting more China-related cultural content and pro-China
07:25messaging, particularly aimed at young people.
07:28The perception that the younger generation has about China could be connected to the long-term
07:31political environment of Taiwanese society.
07:33For China, rather than creating a situation where all Taiwanese residents suddenly change their
07:37attitude, it may be more important to maintain an environment over the long term,
07:40where distrust toward the United States or aversion to China is even partially weakened.
07:44Outreach to political figures is also continuing.
07:46China is known to be maintaining internal dialogue channels in Taiwan by expanding exchanges
07:51with the Kuomintang, Taiwan's opposition party.
07:54These contacts may proceed in a way that emphasizes cross-strait exchanges, and within Taiwan, political
07:59debates may continue over how to define relations with China.
08:02Therefore, if China's Taiwan strategy is viewed only as military pressure, it becomes difficult
08:07to grasp the overall picture of their actions.
08:09Along with military pressure, activities that influence trust in the United States, perceptions
08:13of China and political relationships within Taiwan are happening at the same time.
