- 13 hours ago
Russia cannot become normal by replacing Putin. It must dismantle the tsar machine.
👉 What World Leaders NEED to Know about Russia: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6d9EIByxz1AdkmIOYUlrDd0rmByq5zSN
In this episode, Elvira Bary asks whether Russia can actually become a normal country — one that does not attack its neighbors, worship empire, or depend on the moods of a single ruler. Replacing Putin alone will not solve the problem if the same autocratic machinery remains: centralized money, caste privileges, state monopolies, censorship, controlled courts, obedient media, and security agencies built to protect the throne. Real reform would require redistributing power, money, information, and violence away from Moscow and away from the next “tsar.” This is not a fantasy about a kinder ruler. It is a map of what would have to change for Russia to stop producing rulers like Putin.
Video Chapters:
00:00 Can We Actually Turn Russia Into a Normal Country?
03:27 The Logic of Authoritarianism
07:43 Castes, Natural Resources, and Monopolies
10:35 Money, Power, Information, and Violence
15:09 Reform of State Governance
17:19 Reform of Media, Education, and Religion
18:51 Refor
👉 What World Leaders NEED to Know about Russia: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6d9EIByxz1AdkmIOYUlrDd0rmByq5zSN
In this episode, Elvira Bary asks whether Russia can actually become a normal country — one that does not attack its neighbors, worship empire, or depend on the moods of a single ruler. Replacing Putin alone will not solve the problem if the same autocratic machinery remains: centralized money, caste privileges, state monopolies, censorship, controlled courts, obedient media, and security agencies built to protect the throne. Real reform would require redistributing power, money, information, and violence away from Moscow and away from the next “tsar.” This is not a fantasy about a kinder ruler. It is a map of what would have to change for Russia to stop producing rulers like Putin.
Video Chapters:
00:00 Can We Actually Turn Russia Into a Normal Country?
03:27 The Logic of Authoritarianism
07:43 Castes, Natural Resources, and Monopolies
10:35 Money, Power, Information, and Violence
15:09 Reform of State Governance
17:19 Reform of Media, Education, and Religion
18:51 Refor
Category
đź“š
LearningTranscript
00:00One of the questions I hear most often from my Western viewers is
00:05how do you turn Russia into a normal country?
00:10By normal, they mean a country that does not attack anyone,
00:14lives in peace and builds its own prosperity instead of building an empire.
00:19The solutions most often suggested online usually sound like this.
00:25Putin must be replaced.
00:27Or Russia must fall apart into several pieces and forget the idea of imperialism.
00:33Neither of these will work, and here's why.
00:36If we replace Putin with anyone else, we still get the same system,
00:41a country of many millions whose fate depends on the whims of a czar,
00:47while the level of repression at home and aggression abroad
00:50is determined by his personal tastes, fears, and fantasies.
00:55In this situation, all you can do is pray that the next czar will be kinder than the previous one.
01:03But after a kind czar, another psychopath can easily arrive, and everything begins again.
01:10The collapse of Russia would not solve the problem either because it would be temporary.
01:15Russia is not so large because every little Siberian town has a military
01:19garrison standing over it.
01:21They do not.
01:23The reason is that it is extremely difficult for these regions to survive on their own
01:28because they lack infrastructure, capital, skilled people,
01:32and access to navigable rivers and ice-free ports.
01:36In such conditions, you can sit on enormous natural wealth
01:40and still be terrifyingly poor, as in Africa.
01:44There, too, the ground contains almost the entire periodic table,
01:49but that alone means nothing because the economy depends on geography.
01:55And geography is what it is.
01:57Even if Russia suddenly falls apart, its pieces will still tend to drift back together,
02:03like drops of mercury.
02:05Here, as in China, the reason is simple.
02:08Surviving separately is harder than surviving within a single economic space.
02:13China, too, has broken apart and reunited again and again.
02:18So, the real question is not the size of the country.
02:22The real question is how it is governed.
02:25I am Elvira Barry.
02:27I am a writer born in the Soviet Union.
02:29And today, we are going to look at what could actually turn Russia into a normal state.
02:36Here is our roadmap.
02:37The logic of authoritarianism.
02:40Why dictators always move toward war.
02:44Casts, natural resources, and monopolies.
02:48The three conditions that create authoritarian rule.
02:52Money, power, information, and violence.
02:54How redistributing resource flows can change the situation.
02:59Potential reformers.
03:01Who has the power to begin real change?
03:04Before we begin, please support the channel by subscribing,
03:08liking this video, and following the show on Spotify.
03:11It helps more people find these conversations.
03:14And if you want to support this work more directly,
03:18you can join the think tank,
03:20use Superfanks, buy me a coffee,
03:23or donate through PayPal.
03:25All the links are in the description.
03:28The logic of authoritarianism.
03:33Authoritarian regimes are always a threat to their neighbors.
03:36Just follow the logic of how authoritarianism develops.
03:41A dictator usurps the highest office in the state
03:45and begins to control all of its resources.
03:48To secure his power,
03:50he appoints people not because they are the most competent,
03:53but because they are the most loyal.
03:55People who depend on him completely
03:57and therefore will defend him to the end.
04:01As a result,
04:02the quality of governance moves steadily toward zero.
04:06While the level of corruption,
04:08on the contrary,
04:09breaks every record.
04:12The country clearly loses the competition
04:14with other geopolitical players at its level.
04:17And everyone can see it.
04:20The elites,
04:21the ruler himself,
04:22and ordinary people.
04:24So,
04:25the conclusion almost suggests itself.
04:28Let us start a war.
04:30Take from our neighbors what we need.
04:33Distribute the wealth among the elites
04:35and delight the ordinary people
04:37with greatness and new territorial acquisitions.
04:41But that is not all.
04:43Dictators are people of a particular type.
04:46They believe they are exceptionally intelligent,
04:50talented,
04:50and perceptive.
04:52Ask any courtier,
04:54and he will confirm it.
04:56And they constantly want to measure themselves
05:00against other rulers.
05:02Who is greater?
05:03Who is stronger?
05:04Who is more important?
05:06They cannot simply sit calmly on the throne.
05:09They get bored.
05:10This is not an exaggeration.
05:13These people belong to the hunter personality archetype.
05:17And to feel happy,
05:18they need victories and trophies.
05:20If there is no one left to crush at home,
05:23their whole being starts demanding an enemy abroad.
05:28Do you want examples?
05:30Just look at the endless rivalries of kings in Europe.
05:34The many cons of the Golden Horde
05:37or the fights between Chinese princes.
05:40In other words,
05:41war becomes desirable not only for political reasons,
05:45but also for purely psychological ones.
05:47And the country snaps to attention
05:50and carries out the order
05:51because authoritarian countries have no emergency break.
05:55Here we should note that humanity has lived this way
05:58for most of its existence
06:00because for our biological species,
06:04authoritarian rule is the norm.
06:06It is natural because it is modeled
06:09on the ordinary patriarchal family
06:12where the head of the family
06:14controls all property
06:15and the lives of his relatives.
06:18His word is law.
06:21Nobody elected him.
06:22There is no authority above him.
06:25You can run away from him
06:26and not always.
06:28Or you can kill him and take his place.
06:31Those are the options.
06:33Democracy is not the norm.
06:35It is an artificially created social construct
06:38that helps people live better,
06:40richer and safer lives.
06:42Political scientist Ekaterina Schulman
06:44has a wonderful metaphor.
06:47Tooth decay is normal.
06:49Brushing your teeth is a human invention
06:51created by people who are not satisfied
06:53with the natural norm.
06:55Tooth decay will develop by itself.
06:58But to brush your teeth
07:00and generally to maintain your health,
07:02you have to make an effort.
07:04If people do not make an effort
07:07to maintain democracy,
07:08the result will be authoritarianism.
07:11It will assemble itself.
07:13So, we have noted that authoritarian rulers
07:16always arrive at the idea
07:18that they need to fight a war.
07:20What happens next depends on
07:23the resources available to them
07:24and the stability of their power.
07:27Now, let us look at the mechanisms
07:29that make people obey a dictator
07:31against their own interests.
07:32If our goal is to understand
07:35what needs to be fixed in Russia
07:37for it to become a normal country,
07:39we first need to understand
07:41what exactly is wrong with it.
07:44Casts, natural resources, and monopolies.
07:48At first glance, it seems strange.
07:50How can an autocrat hold on to power?
07:53He is literally harming all his subjects,
07:56except for a small handful of people
07:59close to him.
08:00Why do they obey him?
08:01There is an ancient and highly effective mechanism
08:04that allows one person
08:05to subjugate millions.
08:07We need to divide society into castes.
08:09A high caste and a low caste.
08:12And make sure that the high caste
08:14has privileges that are unthinkable
08:17for the low ones.
08:19The gap has to be enormous.
08:22Then those below will climb upward
08:25with all their strength,
08:27while those above
08:28will fear losing their privileges,
08:30and will defend the person
08:32who guarantees them.
08:33The supreme ruler has to keep
08:35rewarding the members of the higher caste
08:37so they remain personally invested in him.
08:41For that,
08:41he needs a steady source of income.
08:45The population can serve that purpose,
08:47of course,
08:47but people are troublesome.
08:49They rebel,
08:50get sick,
08:51and constantly want things.
08:53Natural resources are much better.
08:56Then everything becomes wonderfully simple.
09:00You sell them,
09:01collect the money,
09:02feed the courtiers,
09:04and they secure your power.
09:07Meanwhile,
09:08the population lives somewhere out there,
09:11mostly on its own.
09:12You remember it during state holidays,
09:15catastrophes,
09:16or when you suddenly feel the urge
09:19to start a war.
09:20To cement this structure,
09:21you need to establish
09:22as many monopolies as possible,
09:24so that only you are
09:25the supreme arbiter,
09:26only you can allow or forbid
09:29the transfer of major property,
09:31and you yourself
09:32make the laws,
09:34apply them,
09:35and control their enforcement.
09:36You need monopolies
09:38on education,
09:39weapons,
09:40foreign trade,
09:41information,
09:42land,
09:42religion,
09:43the more,
09:44the better.
09:44The ideal monopolist state
09:47was the USSR.
09:49Its citizens owned
09:50nothing of their own,
09:52not even their homes.
09:54The state,
09:55headed by the leader,
09:56owned the land
09:57and mineral resources,
09:59the education and healthcare systems,
10:01capital,
10:02industry,
10:03all communications,
10:04all information.
10:06The problem is that
10:07such systems are not viable.
10:10As soon as trouble begins
10:12with their source of income,
10:13they either lose the worse
10:15they themselves started
10:17or simply fall apart.
10:19But there is no reason
10:21to celebrate.
10:23Authoritarianism
10:24will restore itself
10:25if nothing is done.
10:27As we have already established,
10:30for our biological species,
10:32it is the natural state of things.
10:35Money, power,
10:36information, and violence.
10:39To reform Russia,
10:41the first thing
10:42that needs to be broken
10:43is the caste system.
10:45The main privileges
10:46of Russia's highest caste
10:48are
10:48the right to receive
10:50and distribute money
10:51from the state budget,
10:53the right to appoint
10:55and remove top officials,
10:57the right to control information,
10:59what people should know
11:01and what they should believe,
11:03the right to use violence.
11:05If the ruling elite
11:07is stripped of these privileges,
11:08it will no longer support
11:10the dictator
11:11because there will be
11:12no reason to do so.
11:14More than that,
11:15it will lose its monopoly
11:17over the resources
11:18that are redistributed
11:19inside the clans.
11:21And then,
11:22the mid-level
11:23and low-level subordinates
11:25will also have no reason
11:26to obey orders from above.
11:28How can this be done?
11:30The place to begin
11:32is financial reform
11:33because in authoritarian regimes,
11:36money is the most important thing.
11:39Financial reform.
11:41In Russia,
11:42almost all taxes and fees
11:45flow to the center
11:46and are distributed from there.
11:48That is why
11:49Moscow and the federal government
11:52has such enormous power
11:53over the regions.
11:55That is precisely why
11:57Moscow can appoint officials
11:58in the provinces
11:59without taking the wishes
12:01of the population
12:02into account at all.
12:03The locals have to obey
12:06because without money,
12:08there will be nothing.
12:10Subsidies support
12:11not only the budgets
12:12of individual regions
12:13but entire industries as well.
12:15For example,
12:16the military-industrial complex,
12:18the auto industry,
12:20air travel,
12:21and much else.
12:22There are also
12:23countless state programs
12:25without which
12:26whole sectors of the economy
12:27would simply collapse.
12:29For instance,
12:30the construction industry
12:32is heavily dependent
12:33on subsidized housing loans
12:35for the population.
12:36The banking sector
12:38would not survive
12:39without help
12:40from the central bank.
12:41The state is the employer
12:43and the source of income
12:44for the overwhelming majority
12:46of the country's population,
12:48directly or indirectly.
12:50Without payments
12:51from the budget,
12:53people will have
12:54nothing to live on.
12:56Naturally,
12:57in such a setup,
12:58the official
12:59who distributes
13:00the budget
13:01becomes a master of fate,
13:03almost a celestial being.
13:05To deprive him
13:06of this power,
13:08the system of tax collection
13:09and the allocation
13:10of state contracts
13:12and subsidies
13:13has to be changed.
13:15Taxes should remain
13:16in the regions,
13:17while small transfers
13:19should be sent upward
13:20for foreign policy,
13:22defense,
13:22and maintaining
13:23the central administration.
13:25This would immediately
13:26take power away
13:27from a huge number
13:28of Moscow officials
13:29and completely reformat
13:31the central government,
13:32shifting the emphasis
13:34toward the regions.
13:35Moscow would still remain
13:37the center of everything
13:38because it is
13:39the largest
13:40and richest region,
13:41but it would no longer
13:43be draining the life
13:44out of the other regions.
13:46State contracts
13:47would have to be cut,
13:48but this must be done
13:49very carefully.
13:50Under Putin,
13:51a large part of Russian business
13:52was trained to depend
13:54not on the end consumer,
13:56but on the state.
13:57As a result,
13:59these businesses
14:00become uncompetitive
14:02because their money
14:03comes not from customers,
14:05but from officials.
14:06The film industry
14:07is a good example.
14:09It is almost entirely subsidized
14:11from the state budget.
14:13So what gets filmed
14:15and how
14:15is decided
14:17by officials,
14:18not producers.
14:19What the audience
14:21actually wants
14:22barely matters.
14:23The same thing
14:24happens in many areas,
14:26from road construction
14:27to drawn assembly.
14:29If all state contracts
14:31and subsidies
14:32are abolished at once,
14:34the economy will crumble.
14:36But if everything
14:37is left as it is,
14:39this is the road
14:40to further degradation
14:41and the rebirth
14:42of authoritarianism.
14:44This is a very delicate subject
14:46and it requires
14:47serious thought.
14:48How to soften the blow
14:50and make sure
14:51that businesses
14:52begin to orient themselves
14:54toward the end consumer
14:56while people
14:57do not suffer.
14:59The goal is simple.
15:00Officials should not run
15:02the country's economic life
15:03and they should not decide
15:05who gets to earn money
15:07and who does not.
15:09Reform of State Governance
15:13Political reforms
15:14are also necessary.
15:16At the moment,
15:17almost all important
15:19officials in the country
15:20are appointed from above.
15:22Positions are either bought
15:23or redistributed
15:25as part of
15:26internal clan warfare.
15:28As a result,
15:29people's lives
15:30are controlled
15:30not by elected representatives
15:32but by God knows who.
15:35And this applies
15:36to every branch
15:38of government
15:38legislative,
15:40executive,
15:41and judicial.
15:42At the moment,
15:43the parliament in Russia
15:44as well as the legislative bodies
15:46of the federal subjects
15:48are purely decorative institutions.
15:50They are not independent
15:52political players.
15:53They pass any laws
15:55handed down from above
15:56and have no ability
15:58to challenge anything.
15:59And there is no one there
16:01to act as a position anyway
16:04because dangerous candidates
16:06are not even allowed
16:07to reach the elections.
16:09For normal laws
16:10to be passed
16:11in the country,
16:12deputies need to report
16:13on their work
16:14to voters,
16:15not to their superiors.
16:17State funding
16:18of political parties
16:20must be abolished.
16:21The bans
16:22that prevent candidates
16:23from running
16:24must be removed.
16:26Deputies
16:27must be given
16:28real powers
16:29that allow them
16:30to solve problems
16:31and to control
16:32and restrain
16:33the executive branch.
16:35Gubernatorial
16:36and mayoral elections
16:38must be restored.
16:40A mass of insane laws
16:42adopted
16:42since the early 2010s
16:45must be repealed
16:46and the Ukrainian territories
16:48inserted into
16:49the Russian constitution
16:50must be removed from it.
16:53And most importantly,
16:55the presidential power
16:56must be significantly limited.
16:59Russia must become
17:00a parliamentary republic
17:02where all major questions
17:04are decided
17:04not by the will
17:05of one person
17:07but through debate,
17:08discussion
17:09and the formation
17:11of coalitions.
17:12Perhaps
17:13the office of president
17:14should be abolished
17:15altogether
17:16so there is no temptation
17:17for the next autocrat.
17:19Reform of media,
17:21education and religion
17:24The next essential element
17:26is the abolition
17:27of censorship
17:28and internet restrictions,
17:30the privatization
17:31of all state media
17:33and the ban
17:34of state funding
17:35of media outlets
17:36so that the state
17:37cannot impose
17:38its will
17:39on journalists.
17:40The decentralization
17:42of education
17:42is also essential.
17:44Right now,
17:45there is a single
17:46curriculum
17:47and vertical chain
17:48of command
17:49that subordinates
17:50teachers
17:50to the ministry
17:51of education.
17:52Teachers receive
17:54orders from above
17:55and are forced
17:56to follow them
17:57under threat
17:58of dismissal.
17:59Curricula
18:00should be developed
18:01and approved
18:02at the local level.
18:04Universities
18:04will also have
18:05to be made
18:06independent somehow.
18:08Right now,
18:09they are funded
18:09by the state
18:10and therefore,
18:11university leadership
18:12is appointed
18:13from above,
18:14not by boards
18:15of trustees.
18:17No religion
18:18should count
18:18on state support.
18:20Right now,
18:21the Russian
18:21Orthodox Church
18:22is practically
18:23financed
18:24from the state budget,
18:25despite the fact
18:27that the absolute
18:28majority of Russians
18:29do not live
18:30a church life
18:31and do not want
18:32to go to church
18:33regularly.
18:34Those who need
18:35the church
18:36should contribute
18:37to its needs
18:38and religion
18:39certainly must not
18:40be imposed
18:41on society.
18:42It must be
18:43a free choice.
18:44The goal
18:45of all this
18:46is to guarantee
18:47free access
18:47to information
18:48and the exchange
18:50of opinions.
18:51Reform of
18:52the Siloviki
18:55Another crucial
18:57reform is
18:57the reform
18:58of all security
18:59agencies.
19:00The judiciary
19:01must be independent.
19:03Right now,
19:03judges are appointed
19:05from above
19:05and they are built
19:07into the privileged
19:08class.
19:09Judges should
19:10be elected.
19:11The FSB,
19:12the FSB,
19:15the FSB,
19:16and the FSB
19:18must be
19:19completely disbanded.
19:20These state structures
19:21bring Russia
19:22nothing but
19:23systematic harm.
19:24The FSB
19:26must also be
19:27reformed
19:27so that the
19:28prison system
19:29gets rid
19:30of practices
19:30that cripple
19:32convicts
19:33instead of
19:33correcting them.
19:34The police
19:35should be
19:35funded and
19:36formed at
19:36the local
19:37level
19:37and subordinate
19:38to local
19:39authorities.
19:40Right now,
19:41as everywhere
19:42else,
19:42there is
19:43a vertical
19:43power structure
19:44and all
19:45top figures
19:46are appointed
19:47in Moscow.
19:48Military
19:49reform is
19:50a separate
19:50and enormous
19:51task.
19:52After so many
19:53criminals were
19:54brought into
19:55the army
19:55during the war
19:56in Ukraine,
19:57military culture
19:58has effectively
19:59fused with
20:00prison culture.
20:01The war
20:02has produced
20:02monstrous
20:03corruption
20:04and extreme
20:05cruelty
20:05toward Russia's
20:06own soldiers.
20:07All of this
20:09would have to be
20:10rebuilt from
20:11scratch.
20:12A new
20:12identity.
20:16And most
20:17importantly,
20:18Russia must
20:19build a new
20:20self-identity
20:21based on
20:22real achievements,
20:23creativity,
20:24and discoveries,
20:25not on the
20:25idea of
20:26imperial conquest.
20:27There needs
20:28to be a
20:28mass information
20:29campaign about
20:30what actually
20:31happened in
20:31Ukraine.
20:32People need
20:33to be told
20:34exactly how
20:35and by
20:35whom
20:36they were
20:37deceived,
20:38seduced,
20:39and coerced.
20:40How much
20:41it cost
20:41and what
20:42results it
20:43produced.
20:43It is necessary
20:45to explain
20:45why the
20:46deception
20:46worked.
20:47It is necessary
20:48to identify
20:49everyone who
20:50gave and
20:50carried out
20:51criminal orders
20:52that led to
20:52human casualties
20:53and destruction.
20:55Many people
20:55in Ukraine
20:56and in the
20:57West want
20:57to punish
20:58and isolate
20:58Russia.
20:59As I have
21:00said in my
21:00previous videos,
21:02this will
21:03only lead to
21:04a surge
21:04of nationalism,
21:05the emergence
21:06of a new
21:07FĂĽhrer,
21:08and another
21:08war in 20
21:09or 30
21:10years.
21:11Humanity has
21:12already been
21:12through all
21:13this.
21:13This is exactly
21:15how Germany
21:15was treated
21:16in 1918
21:17after its
21:18defeat in
21:19the First
21:19World War.
21:20And the
21:21result was
21:21a first
21:22for revenge,
21:23nationalism,
21:24and nostalgia
21:24for a strong
21:25leader.
21:26We do not
21:27need any
21:27of that.
21:28So the
21:29task of the
21:30outside world
21:30is to support
21:31healthy forces
21:32inside Russia.
21:34potential
21:34reformers.
21:38All of
21:39this sounds
21:39wonderful,
21:40but the
21:40question is,
21:41who can
21:41launch these
21:42changes if
21:43all the
21:44resources are
21:44concentrated in
21:45the hands of
21:46the upper
21:46caste, the
21:48very group
21:48that would
21:49suffer as a
21:50result of
21:51reform?
21:51The privileged
21:53class will
21:54not give up
21:54power voluntarily.
21:56That much
21:56is obvious.
21:57So what
21:58options do
21:59we have?
22:00Let us look
22:01at the
22:01most
22:01realistic
22:02ones.
22:03Apollos
22:03coup.
22:04The
22:04upper
22:05caste
22:05realizes
22:05that the
22:06course
22:06chosen by
22:07Putin
22:07will lead
22:08the
22:08country
22:09not only
22:09to
22:10military
22:10defeat,
22:11but also
22:11to
22:11serious
22:12economic
22:13problems.
22:14The
22:14president
22:15is removed,
22:16but in
22:16reality,
22:17this will
22:18not save
22:18the economy.
22:19It is
22:20very important
22:21to take
22:22into
22:22account
22:22the
22:23lessons
22:23of the
22:241980s
22:25and
22:251990s,
22:26when the
22:27West
22:28helped
22:28the USSR
22:29and then
22:29Russia,
22:30but ultimately
22:31let the
22:32situation
22:33drift and
22:34allowed
22:34authoritarianism
22:35to reassemble
22:36itself.
22:37Sanctions
22:38should be
22:38lifted and
22:39any financial
22:40aid provided
22:41only on the
22:42condition that
22:43the reforms
22:43we discussed
22:44earlier
22:45actually begin.
22:46At the
22:46same time,
22:47the negotiators
22:48on the
22:48Russian side
22:49will need
22:50some kind
22:50of incentive.
22:52They will
22:52lose their
22:53status as
22:54untouchable
22:55gods,
22:55so they
22:56must receive
22:57something in
22:58return.
22:59Otherwise,
23:00they will
23:00dig in
23:01their heels
23:02and bet
23:03on a
23:03North Korea
23:04style regime,
23:05one in which
23:06they personally
23:07remain comfortable
23:09while the
23:10rest of the
23:10population
23:11pays the
23:11price.
23:12Military
23:13defeat
23:13and an
23:14army
23:15revolt.
23:16This
23:17situation
23:17is much
23:18more
23:18complicated.
23:19Military
23:20people usually
23:21do not
23:21know how
23:22to run
23:22a state.
23:23If they
23:24seize power,
23:25the current
23:26elite will
23:26instantly scatter
23:27in their
23:28business jets
23:28and God
23:30knows who
23:30will take
23:31their place.
23:32They will
23:33wreck what
23:34remains,
23:34blame everything
23:35on external
23:36and internal
23:37enemies,
23:38redistribute
23:39property in
23:40their own
23:40favor,
23:41and trigger
23:42mass
23:42immigration,
23:43which would
23:44only make
23:44the economy
23:45deteriorate even
23:46faster.
23:46If events
23:47unfold this
23:48way,
23:48it will
23:49be necessary
23:50to look
23:50for someone
23:51in the
23:51military with
23:52whom constructive
23:53negotiations are
23:54even possible.
23:55If such a
23:56person can
23:57be found,
23:58there is hope
23:59for a positive
24:00scenario,
24:00but it is
24:02very possible
24:03that there
24:04will be
24:04now one
24:05to choose
24:05from.
24:06Then
24:06authoritarianism
24:07will
24:08reassemble
24:08itself again,
24:10but at a
24:11much lower
24:11level.
24:12A revolution
24:13is not
24:13really visible
24:14at the
24:14moment because
24:15everyone who
24:16could have
24:17carried it
24:17out has
24:18left the
24:19country.
24:19In addition,
24:21Russia has
24:21a very low
24:22percentage of
24:23young people,
24:23so there is
24:24no one to
24:25wave flags
24:26on the
24:26barricades.
24:28Unfortunately,
24:29at the
24:29moment,
24:30a democratic
24:30transition is
24:31the less
24:32likely scenario
24:33in the
24:34coming years.
24:35A democratic
24:36transition requires
24:37more than
24:38people protesting.
24:39It requires
24:40institutions,
24:42legal
24:42politics,
24:43independent
24:44media,
24:45an elite
24:46group ready
24:47to negotiate,
24:48and the
24:49social consensus
24:50that the
24:51imperial war
24:51was a
24:52catastrophe.
24:53Right now,
24:54almost none
24:55of this
24:55exists.
24:56Even if
24:57the regime
24:57cracks,
24:58the first
24:59people likely
24:59to step
25:00onto the
25:01stage will
25:01not be
25:02liberals,
25:02but security
25:03officials,
25:05governors,
25:06military
25:06men,
25:07patriotic
25:07populists,
25:08and people
25:09with access
25:10to violence.
25:10So,
25:12the most
25:12likely
25:12scenario
25:13at the
25:13moment
25:14is
25:14inertia.
25:15Russia
25:16remains
25:17in a
25:17state
25:18of
25:18prolonged
25:18war,
25:19but
25:19without
25:20a
25:20major
25:20political
25:21explosion.
25:22The
25:22government
25:23continues
25:23to sell
25:24society
25:24the same
25:25idea.
25:26We are
25:26suffering
25:27because
25:27we are
25:28fighting
25:28the
25:28West.
25:29The
25:29economy
25:30does
25:30not
25:30collapse,
25:31but
25:32it
25:32gradually
25:32becomes
25:33poorer
25:33and
25:34worse.
25:34Less
25:35private
25:35initiative,
25:36more
25:37military
25:37spending,
25:38more
25:38dependence
25:39on the
25:40state,
25:40China,
25:41raw
25:41materials
25:42and
25:42gray
25:42schemes.
25:43This
25:43will
25:44work
25:44until
25:44it
25:45stops
25:45working.
25:46What
25:46the
25:47world
25:47needs
25:47is a
25:48window
25:48of
25:48opportunity
25:49for
25:49democracy
25:50to take
25:50root
25:50in
25:51Russia.
25:51That
25:52window
25:52will
25:52appear.
25:53It
25:53is
25:53impossible
25:54to say
25:54when or
25:55how,
25:55but
25:55Putin
25:56will
25:56eventually
25:57leave
25:57power
25:57one way
25:58or
25:58another.
25:59And
25:59when
26:00that
26:00moment
26:00comes,
26:01it
26:02will
26:02be
26:02crucial
26:03to
26:03help
26:03healthy
26:04forces
26:04inside
26:05Russia
26:05turn
26:06the
26:06wheel
26:06in
26:07the
26:07right
26:07direction.
26:08Before
26:08you go,
26:09I want
26:09to ask
26:09you
26:09something
26:10personal.
26:10Have
26:11you ever
26:11lived or
26:12worked
26:12inside a
26:13system
26:13where
26:13everything
26:14depended
26:14on one
26:15person's
26:16mood?
26:16A
26:17boss,
26:17a
26:17parent,
26:18a
26:18principal,
26:19a
26:19local
26:20official,
26:20a
26:21family
26:21patriarch,
26:22and
26:22everyone
26:23around
26:23them
26:24learned
26:24to
26:24adapt
26:25instead
26:25of
26:26telling
26:26the
26:26truth.
26:27If
26:27this
26:28video
26:28helped
26:29you
26:29understand
26:29what
26:30real
26:30reform
26:30in
26:31Russia
26:31would
26:31require,
26:32please
26:33like
26:33the
26:33video
26:34and
26:34subscribe.
26:35Share
26:35it
26:36with
26:36one
26:36person
26:37who
26:37still
26:37thinks
26:37Russia's
26:38problem
26:38can
26:39be
26:39solved
26:39by
26:40simply
26:40replacing
26:41the
26:41man
26:41at
26:42the
26:42top.
26:43And
26:43if
26:43you
26:43want
26:44to
26:44support
26:44this
26:44work
26:45directly,
26:45you
26:46can
26:46join
26:46my
26:46think,
26:47leave
26:47a
26:47super
26:48thanks,
26:49buy
26:49me
26:50a
26:50coffee,
26:50support
26:51through
26:51PayPal
26:51or
26:52tap
26:52Hype
26:53Points
26:53to help
26:54this
26:54episode
26:54travel
26:55further.
26:56And
26:56for
26:56those
26:56listening
26:57on
26:57Spotify,
26:58follow
26:58the
26:59show
26:59so
26:59you
27:00don't
27:00miss
27:00the
27:01next
27:01one.
27:02Thank
27:02you
27:02for
27:02watching.
27:03See
27:03you
27:03next
27:04time.
27:22Bye.
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