- 2 days ago
Russia tried to keep the war far away. Now Moscow is burning, and the illusion is cracking.
👉 What World Leaders NEED to Know about Russia: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6d9EIByxz1AdkmIOYUlrDd0rmByq5zSN
In this episode, Elvira Bary explains what happens when a war that Russia tried to keep distant finally comes home. For years, Putin’s regime worked to make ordinary Russians feel that the invasion of Ukraine was somewhere far away, safely outside their daily lives. But Ukrainian drone strikes, burning factories, airport chaos, fuel shortages, collapsing businesses, broken air defenses, and official silence are exposing something far more dangerous than military failure: state dysfunction. The Russian “father knows best” illusion is breaking, and millions of people are beginning to see that the system they trusted to protect them may not be able to do anything at all.
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MY HISTORICAL FICTION BOOK SERIES
➡️ Russian Treasures (a historical novel about the Bolshevik Revolution an
👉 What World Leaders NEED to Know about Russia: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6d9EIByxz1AdkmIOYUlrDd0rmByq5zSN
In this episode, Elvira Bary explains what happens when a war that Russia tried to keep distant finally comes home. For years, Putin’s regime worked to make ordinary Russians feel that the invasion of Ukraine was somewhere far away, safely outside their daily lives. But Ukrainian drone strikes, burning factories, airport chaos, fuel shortages, collapsing businesses, broken air defenses, and official silence are exposing something far more dangerous than military failure: state dysfunction. The Russian “father knows best” illusion is breaking, and millions of people are beginning to see that the system they trusted to protect them may not be able to do anything at all.
JOIN ME ON THE JOURNEY
👉 Sign-up for news about the New Book here: https://elvirabary.com/elvira-barys-newsletter/
👉https://www.facebook.com/baryelvira/
👉https://www.instagram.com/elvira.bary/
MY HISTORICAL FICTION BOOK SERIES
➡️ Russian Treasures (a historical novel about the Bolshevik Revolution an
Category
đź“š
LearningTranscript
00:00A huge part of the Russian intelligentsia, along with well-educated business people,
00:04has been saying since the very start of the war that the attack on Ukraine
00:09would end in disaster for Russia itself.
00:13My entire YouTube channel is filled with explanations of why and how this would happen.
00:20But it is not because I'm some kind of a prophet.
00:23The same thing was being said by anyone with a functioning brain.
00:30The logic of how events would unfold was obvious to anyone who understands
00:35even a little history and international relationships.
00:38The conquest of Ukraine would create a threat to European security.
00:44Authoritarian regimes, once they feel the rush of success, never stop.
00:48A dragon cannot be fed enough, because the whole meaning of its existence is domination and control.
00:56Worse still, it sincerely believes that domination and control are everyone else's secret dream as well,
01:03and so it sees peace itself as a fiction.
01:07In peacetime, democratic countries outperform this fixed-called brute in every respect,
01:13and it interprets that as an attack and a threat.
01:18So it starts throwing its weight around, just like a thug in a back alley.
01:24Why are you wearing glasses?
01:27Got any money?
01:28What if I check?
01:30If it is obvious that the dragon will not stop,
01:33then the only rational choice is to make it break its teeth.
01:37At first, Europe assumed Ukraine would not hold,
01:41that it would lack the internal resources and political will.
01:45But once it became clear that Ukraine would hold,
01:49money and specialists began to flow in.
01:53Logistics chains were built,
01:55communications were set up,
01:57and much else besides.
01:59Why?
02:00Because for Europe,
02:01that is cheaper and easier than fighting the dragon itself.
02:05There is no sentimentality in this.
02:08It is cooperation based on mutual benefit.
02:12When you have effective fighters on the ground,
02:15plus money,
02:16secure rear support,
02:18technology,
02:18and enormous human capital,
02:20what is the result?
02:23Exactly.
02:24The dragon will be defeated.
02:26Can the dragon oppose anything meaningful to the alliance between Ukraine and the West?
02:32No.
02:33Because this war is needed only by the president
02:36and by a tiny handful of fanatics
02:39who cannot sleep
02:40unless they are humiliating and robbing someone.
02:43Everyone else just wants to live peacefully,
02:46earn their money,
02:48go on vacation,
02:49and fix up their duchess.
02:51And this applies not only to bus drivers and shop assistants,
02:54but to oligarchs too.
02:55So everyone in their own place is trying to pat their fault.
03:00If they have the chance,
03:02they steal everything not nailed down
03:04because they know perfectly well that the crisis is coming
03:07and that money is the only possible lifeboat.
03:10So that is what they are earning.
03:13A perfect illustration of how this machine works.
03:17Yesterday,
03:18I received an Instagram message offering me
03:20a paid promotion for Russian drones manufactured in Alapuga.
03:26Which means
03:27someone got a budget for working with Western opinion leaders,
03:33stole 90% of it,
03:34and used their leftovers to hire idiots
03:37who spam their offers to absolutely everyone,
03:41including me.
03:42They do not care about results.
03:44They care about filling a report saying the work was done,
03:49proposals were sent out,
03:50because the person assigned to this task
03:53is solving his own problem
03:55and could not care less
03:56what people in the United States or Europe
03:59think about Russian drones.
04:00That is how the whole system works.
04:03In industry,
04:04in regional administrations,
04:06in ministries,
04:07and even in the army.
04:09Are you surprised
04:10that Ukrainian drones broke through
04:12a triple air defense ring
04:14and smashed a whole series of targets in Moscow?
04:17I am not surprised
04:19because the exact same thing
04:20is happening in air defense.
04:22Commanders are solving their own private problems.
04:25Superiors see beautiful reports.
04:28Journalists repeat what they are told.
04:30The presentations look very impressive.
04:34And then reality arrives,
04:36and it turns out
04:37the dragon has long since been eaten
04:39from the inside by termites.
04:42This doesn't mean
04:43it cannot still harm those around it.
04:46Of course it can.
04:47It means it is not
04:49what it pretends to be.
04:51Once it became clear
04:52that the people of Russia
04:53had no desire
04:54to stand shoulder to shoulder
04:56and kill their neighbors,
04:57the mafia that seized power
05:00in the country
05:00changed tactics.
05:02For years,
05:03it did everything possible
05:05to make sure
05:05residents of major Russian cities
05:08did not feel the war
05:10in their own lives.
05:11It was somewhere far away
05:13and had nothing to do with us.
05:16Much like the Chechen war
05:18in the 1990s,
05:19which most people barely noticed.
05:22This tactic worked yet again
05:25because the average 40-year-old woman
05:27with one child
05:28and an elderly mother,
05:30which is, in fact,
05:31the statistical average Russian citizen,
05:34does not enjoy thinking of herself
05:35as belonging to a country
05:37that attacks, robs,
05:39and launches missiles
05:41that tear children's legs off
05:42and kill their mothers.
05:44The average Yelena Smyrnova
05:46pulled the blanket over her head
05:49I'm in my little house
05:51and handed over the right
05:53to decide her fate
05:54to the authorities.
05:55Therefore, it is no best, after all.
05:58What needs to be done?
05:59What Russia's national interests are?
06:02This is the logic of a child
06:04who fully trusts a parent.
06:07Father may beat her,
06:09shout at her,
06:10and humiliate her,
06:11but he feeds her
06:13and goes to the PTA conferences.
06:15And besides,
06:17she is not an orphan,
06:18and that matters to Yelena enormously.
06:22Now the situation is this.
06:24The father is failing.
06:26Yelena Smyrnova is in panic.
06:28She genuinely does not understand.
06:30How can this be?
06:32Why is everything burning?
06:34No one warned anyone.
06:37There were not even helicopters in the sky,
06:39and black rain is falling
06:41from the burning of petroleum products.
06:44And father,
06:45instead of calming Yelena down,
06:48starts yelling at her
06:49that she is not even allowed
06:51to talk about it.
06:53What are you?
06:53A traitor?
06:55Or just an idiot?
06:57You open the websites
06:58of the biggest media outlets,
06:59and what do you see?
07:01Epic footage of a burning factory
07:03and a black pillar of smoke
07:05filling half the sky.
07:07Oh no.
07:09Everything is under control.
07:11A few pictures of tiny drones
07:13and comments from military experts
07:16deftly shifting their emphasis.
07:19Locations identified
07:20from which the armed forces of Ukraine
07:23launched a record number of drones
07:25at Moscow and the Moscow region.
07:27Or even better,
07:28I take my head off to air defense.
07:32Around 180 Ukrainian drones
07:34were shut down overnight
07:35and in the morning
07:36on approach to Moscow.
07:38Air defense operations continue.
07:41In short,
07:43all is well.
07:44Yelena Smirnova can see
07:45with her own eyes
07:46that her peaceful life
07:48is collapsing,
07:48but she is getting
07:49no clear answer
07:51about what is happening
07:52or what she is supposed
07:54to do now.
07:55Meanwhile,
07:56relatives and friends
07:57keep calling
07:58after watching videos
07:59on social media
08:00asking,
08:00how are you over there?
08:02She has no idea
08:04what to tell them.
08:05She was not emotionally prepared
08:07for any of this.
08:09Yes,
08:10in the fifth year of the war.
08:12And now,
08:13it is slowly dawning on her
08:15that father
08:16will not help her.
08:18She can see his hands trembling.
08:20She can see
08:21that he can do nothing.
08:24All he can do is
08:26screech in a shrill voice,
08:28hurl insults,
08:30and threaten to punish her
08:32if she spreads fakes.
08:35If you browse
08:36the telegram channels
08:37of leading Z-bloggers,
08:39what will you see?
08:41Nothing particular new.
08:43Just as in the central media,
08:46they avert their eyes
08:47and strain to pretend
08:49that nothing is happening.
08:51Either they thank
08:52their air defenses
08:53for their excellent work,
08:55after which Moscow keeps burning,
08:57or they post their usual appeals
09:00for donations
09:00to the Russian army
09:01and news about
09:03the capture of yet
09:04another ruined village.
09:06Do you know
09:06what this is called?
09:08State dysfunction.
09:10That is the most terrifying thing
09:12about an authoritarian regime.
09:15People submit to rules
09:16they never elected
09:17only so long
09:18as those rulers
09:20appear to be
09:21doing their job
09:22and keeping the state
09:24functioning smoothly.
09:26There are now
09:27obvious problems with that.
09:29The reports keep coming.
09:31one after another.
09:33Ukrainian drones
09:34are destroying
09:35Russian enterprises,
09:36which means
09:37people cannot work there
09:39and cannot get their wages.
09:41The much-praised
09:43air defenses
09:44can do nothing.
09:46Apparently,
09:47there is a shortage
09:48of ammunition.
09:49As always,
09:50a great deal
09:51was stolen
09:52on the assumption
09:53that it will never be needed
09:55and there will never be an inspection.
09:59Many airports are in collapse.
10:02People sit on planes
10:03for 10 hours or more.
10:06Many are stranded
10:07in unfamiliar cities
10:09after emergency landings.
10:11Passengers are sitting on the floor.
10:14There is no food,
10:15no water,
10:15and hotels are accepting
10:17only families with children.
10:19Business owners
10:21ask the state
10:22to protect
10:22their factories
10:23and plants
10:24and the state replies
10:26do it yourself.
10:27As a result,
10:29amateur self-defense
10:30squads
10:30are springing up
10:32all over the country.
10:33Squads
10:34utterly incapable
10:35of doing anything
10:36against drones,
10:37though
10:38they do have
10:39weapons
10:40which will work
10:41perfectly well
10:42in conflicts
10:42with civilians
10:44and with one another.
10:46Inflation
10:47is spinning
10:47out of control
10:48and there is
10:49no money
10:50in the treasury.
10:52For years,
10:53Putin's state
10:53did everything
10:54to make
10:55as many people
10:56as possible
10:56directly depend on it
10:58and now
10:59it must think
10:59about
11:00how to fit
11:01this entire horde.
11:03Now,
11:04Russia's budget deficit
11:05exceeds
11:066 trillion rubles.
11:09Small and medium
11:10businesses
11:10are closing en masse
11:11because demand
11:13has fallen
11:14while taxes
11:15have risen.
11:17There are
11:18fuel shortages
11:19in many regions
11:20and there is
11:21falling oil revenue
11:23amid news
11:23of an agreement
11:25between the United States
11:26and Iran.
11:27Yelena Smirnova
11:29can plainly see
11:30that father
11:31has dragged himself
11:32on the information
11:34narcotics
11:34of his own making
11:35and is simply
11:37laying on the sofa
11:38not caring
11:39about anything.
11:41But
11:42what is she
11:43supposed to do?
11:44she has a child,
11:46she has an elderly mother
11:47and the war
11:49that is step number one.
11:51After that
11:51there will be
11:52major historical changes
11:54that part
11:55is already
11:56inevitable.
11:57And
11:58at this point
12:00we can see
12:01the following
12:02armed
12:02and well-connected
12:03political forces
12:04that are likely
12:05to decide
12:06Yelena Smirnova's fate.
12:08Ethnic diasporas,
12:10militarized structures
12:12built around
12:12major industrial holdings
12:14war veterans.
12:16There is still
12:18a chance
12:18of a more or less
12:19peaceful way
12:20out of the crisis.
12:22Remove Putin,
12:23end the war
12:24immediately
12:25and begin
12:26and begin
12:27a gradual
12:27democratization.
12:29But
12:30most likely
12:31that will not happen.
12:33Personally,
12:34I expect
12:34an escalation
12:35on Ukrainian strikes,
12:37worsening problems
12:38at the front
12:39and growing activity
12:40precisely from
12:41their military.
12:42They will not be able
12:44to defeat
12:44the Ukrainians
12:45but they will need
12:47to find
12:47someone to blame
12:48so as not
12:50to end up
12:51with the narrative
12:52where mercenaries
12:54who failed
12:55in our mission.
12:56They will want
12:58a very different story
13:00where heroes
13:02but their authorities
13:03betrayed us.
13:04If this video
13:05helped you understand
13:06what's going on
13:08in Russia right now,
13:09please like the video
13:10and subscribe.
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13:12with one person
13:13who still thinks
13:15Russia is winning.
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