00:00The Astros, I think, Craig, we were looking at it earlier, they had less than a 13% chance of
00:07making the playoffs as of July 18th. So that's how quick it now, they've got a legit shot at
00:14actually winning the American League West here. And the bullpen got healthier. The bats got
00:22healthier here a little bit, but, and it doesn't hurt that the Mariners, you know, have lost what?
00:29They just can't seem to, to buy a run. It's one of the worst offenses to watch here,
00:35but they have had some success against Houston, but you know, Houston, there's no excuse with them
00:41too, but that was what a difference three weeks makes. I mean, that's real July 18th, less than
00:46the 13% chance. And now all of a sudden they've got a really good shot at actually winning the
00:52division.
00:53So I'll give you some of the odds here. I put my glasses on for the folks at home so
00:57I can read
00:57this. These are the fan graphs percentages, which is generally what the league goes by.
01:02Basically, when teams look at their real chances, they have their own internal systems,
01:05but they reference fan graphs. So in the American League to make the playoffs,
01:10the Yankees are 99% according to fan graphs and the Red Sox are 95%. So those two teams,
01:16barring some catastrophe, make the playoffs, make it. Not win the division, make the playoffs.
01:2254% Joe is the, is Texas fan graphs has 54%. They have them as the final wild card, making
01:29the
01:29playoffs. And then beyond that teams with a very good shot still, uh, this is not the White Sox,
01:36White Sox, of course, assuming they win the division, you have Detroit at 32%, Cleveland at 35%,
01:43Seattle at 31%, Minnesota at 25%, and then the Orioles at 13%. So Seattle at 31%, you know,
01:53it's based on talent and war and all those other stats too. I mean, they, Seattle still is literally
01:58right there. But what I could tell you is, is that Seattle situation right now feels like a Pittsburgh
02:05situation from about a week ago where Pittsburgh, because they were so good and they didn't make
02:09those trades. It was like, they still had their percentages on fan graphs relatively high. And then
02:14after they got wiped, they threw them down. I feel like the same thing for Seattle is coming here. Either
02:18Seattle has to go on a very big run here in the next couple of weeks, or you're going to
02:23see their
02:23percentages drop. Yeah. I mean, my goodness. Uh, that is just absolutely crazy. The good thing about
02:33Seattle though, it's not their schedule because they've got three coming up in the Bronx against the
02:38Yankees three in Houston. And then they got three in Milwaukee. And then they come home to take on the
02:46Cubs and Philly. So they have absolutely not a lot of room for error. The only good thing is great.
02:53They are seven and one this year against Houston for whatever reason. They're seven and one against
03:00Houston here, but this is a Yankees on the road. Then you got to take on the app, the Brewers,
03:07Cubs, Phillies. That's, I mean, you're talking about three or four of the best teams in both
03:11conferences here and a team that can't score runs. I think they're in trouble in a big, big way.
03:18If they lose this series to the Yankees, no matter what they do with the Astros, is it officially
03:24stick a fork done for you? I think so. But I look, I was wrong about Houston and Houston put
03:30themselves
03:30back in it. So, and, and, and, you know, St. Louis has toyed with us all season long too.
03:35It's been a fun year in baseball. It's just, we're, we're really to the point where they're,
03:40I know they're thinking of adding another playoff team to the mix, but at some point you're going
03:44to become the NBA. If you're major league baseball, adding more playoff teams, it's just a good point.
03:48I mean, we're, we're going to, we're starting to record, uh, to reward some mediocrity.
03:52I don't mind teams getting in a game or two above 500, but NBA teams are getting in seven games
03:58below.
03:58It's a little ridiculous.
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