00:00Hi there and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead.
00:03It's a new month, but will we get new weather?
00:06A lot of people are crying out for a change in the weather this August, and it's no surprise.
00:12The headline stats for July are that it was the UK's sunniest July on record.
00:17It was also the second warmest July on record for the UK.
00:21But it's the dryness of July that is the key thing to mention here,
00:27because aside from the north and west of Scotland, where rainfall was close to average,
00:31much of the UK was drier than average.
00:34But you can see this huge swathe across England and Wales, where it was the driest July on record,
00:38with less than 20% of its average rainfall, 20% being the bottom colour there.
00:44But actually for southern England, just 3% of its average rainfall was recorded.
00:501.9 millimetres throughout the whole month for southern England.
00:54In fact, for southern England, it was not just the driest July on record.
00:59It was the sunniest, warmest and driest calendar month on record.
01:05So yes, many parts of the UK crying out for rain, but especially southern England.
01:10And for the week ahead, yeah, a change in the weather with low pressure,
01:14bringing some outbreaks of rain and showers.
01:16However, much of that rain will fall away from the areas where it is most needed.
01:22Here's a summary of the rainfall from Monday to Friday.
01:26You can see how the rain builds up, especially across the north and the west of the UK.
01:30And you can see the darker blues appearing across parts of Northern Ireland, Scotland,
01:34through higher parts of northern and western England, as well as Wales.
01:38So these colours indicate more than 50 millimetres rain.
01:41Some of these brighter colours indicate more than 100 millimetres rain,
01:44building up across parts of western Scotland in particular.
01:49But, very empty map there for southern parts of England.
01:53Some places barely seeing a drop because of the showery nature of the rainfall
01:58through this week across southern parts of the UK.
02:01So low pressure is turning up.
02:04However, it's not going to bring an even distribution of rainfall.
02:08Here's the first low coming along with its associated weather fronts.
02:11These weather fronts will be bringing persistent rainfall to the north of the UK on Tuesday morning.
02:17So a damp start for Northern Ireland for much of Scotland.
02:19Heavy outbreaks of rain through the morning.
02:22Breaking up into showers in many places by the afternoon.
02:25Those showers affecting western England, Wales and especially Northern Ireland
02:28where the showers will turn into thunderstorms by the afternoon.
02:31They could cause some impacts, of course.
02:33Busy time of year for Northern Ireland and for many other parts of the UK.
02:37OK, so, thundery showers and some heavy downpours across the north and the west of the UK.
02:42But another dry day expected through many parts of the Midlands,
02:45the east and southeast of England with some warm sunshine.
02:49A humid feel, more humid perhaps than at the start of the week
02:52with the highest temperatures this time shifted further east
02:56into the low 30s across eastern England.
02:59But the absolute peak values for many places a little down compared with Monday,
03:03more likely into the mid to high 20s.
03:05But, yeah, that humid feel.
03:06A lot more cloud around as well.
03:08A bit more of a breeze coming through from the southwest.
03:11That breeze helping to shift some of those showers
03:13and they're going to move through during Tuesday evening.
03:16But the low pressure stays in place.
03:19It moves a little further to the east.
03:22However, the most notable thing on Wednesday is that the cold front moves through
03:26and the winds change direction.
03:27A fresher feel for many of us from midweek.
03:31Temperatures dropping closer to average from midweek.
03:35So, we've got this fresh west to northwesterly breeze coming in.
03:38Still some persistent rain and low cloud for the north of Scotland.
03:42Heavy downpours here.
03:43Showery rain moving through the rest of Scotland into Northern Ireland,
03:46northern England.
03:47Dryer once again towards the south.
03:49Plenty of sunshine for the Midlands, east Anglia and the southeast.
03:53But temperatures down a few degrees compared with Tuesday.
03:5525, 26, 27 Celsius.
03:58More like the high teens, low 20s further north and west.
04:02Not much rain for the southern half of the UK.
04:04Much of that focused further north.
04:07Then skipping ahead to Thursday.
04:09The outbreaks of rain in the north do sink south into central parts of the country
04:12but turn more showery as they move south.
04:14Some are reaching rain-starved parts of eastern England.
04:18Not much though for central southern England.
04:19And sunshine coming through for the southwest for West Wales.
04:24Drier and brighter conditions for Scotland and Northern Ireland
04:27after a damp and gloomy couple of days.
04:30And a fresh breeze.
04:32So, temperatures down once again a degree or two compared with Wednesday
04:35with lower humidities as well.
04:37A fresher feel but temperatures close to average, it has to be said.
04:40A little below average for the north and west.
04:43Now, this weather front moves through.
04:45Thursday, actually, for many, is the driest day of the week.
04:49High pressure close to the south then as we end the week.
04:53But another low coming along close to northern Scotland
04:55bringing its associated weather front in.
04:57And that will increasingly cause damp weather across Scotland,
05:01northern England, Northern Ireland as we end the week.
05:04One or two light showers for the south.
05:06But very little meaningful rainfall once again across southern parts
05:09despite low pressure dominating the weather across the UK.
05:14So, it's not always the case that we have low pressure in charge
05:16and we get a lot of rainfall.
05:18In the summer months, these lows can be very showery features
05:22and can bring very uneven amounts of rainfall across the country.
05:26The rain turns to showers across northern parts.
05:29Drier and clearer further south.
05:31Still with a lot of clouds.
05:33So, the sunny theme, at least, from July.
05:36Not repeated this week, even if the dry theme continues.
05:39Temperature's not far from average or even a little below for northern parts of the country.
05:45That front moves through.
05:46We've still got high pressure close to the south of the UK this weekend.
05:49So, always drier towards the south and warmer with some sunny spells.
05:54Another low turns up towards the north or at least the same low
05:58but in a slightly different orientation.
06:01Further changeable weather to come with rain or showers at times on Saturday and Sunday.
06:06So, yeah, a lot of rain for some this week
06:09but unfortunately not in those parts of the UK where it is most needed.
06:14And then next week it looks like high pressure may become a bit more influential yet again.
06:21So, we'll keep rotating on all of that.
06:22And if you're interested in the stats I mentioned at the start,
06:25I'm going to be covering those in depth in Tuesday's Deep Dive
06:29which you can find on the Met Office YouTube channel.
06:32Bye-bye.
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