- 2 weeks ago
Andrew Golden joins the show to discuss why he believes Washington should not trade star pitcher Foster Griffin at the trade deadline.
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00:00Right now on the Rude Guest Hotline, Rude, the most reliable heating and air conditioning products in the DMV.
00:04Our buddy Andrew Golden covers the Nats for the Baltimore Banner.
00:08Wrote a really nice piece today you guys should check out.
00:10Trading Foster Griffin makes sense on paper, but the Nationals shouldn't.
00:15And Andrew, I really enjoyed that you have this kind of juxtaposition going on
00:19where you acknowledge in the piece that your baseball brain says,
00:23trade this guy, he's not resigning.
00:26But yet, you can't shake the fact that you don't think they should.
00:30Take us through that.
00:32Yeah, I've been going back and forth for the past few days about what I think they should do with
00:37Foster.
00:37I think on one hand, the baseball argument is that obviously it's like,
00:41if you have a player on an expiring contract and you're a rebuilding team,
00:45you should maximize your value.
00:46But on the other hand, there are two games that have a wild card.
00:49You don't really know if you'll get a chance to compete again.
00:52You think you can, right?
00:53The more prospects you have, the better shot that you have.
00:55And I would agree with that.
00:56But you never truly know if this stuff will all shake out.
00:59And so I think I'm at the point where I think they should keep Foster and just go for it.
01:03I think it's good for team morale to play competitive baseball at this point in the year.
01:07And it's something they haven't done in a while.
01:08And I think that sets them up well for next season, regardless if they're able to play
01:11some meaningful games down the stretch.
01:13Yeah, I think there's something to be said, Andrew, about the human side of this thing.
01:16And I don't think C.J. Abrams is going to get dealt.
01:19You talked about that in the piece.
01:20It'd have to be something really significant.
01:22But the vibes are so high in year one with Paul Zaboni that maybe it's worth, even though
01:28you're maybe missing out on a prospect or two, maybe it's just worth riding it out to keep
01:33those positive vibes going into next season.
01:36Yeah.
01:36And I think you'd make the argument, if you're looking at it from a larger perspective,
01:40looking at ownership and having people in seats and things mattering, right?
01:44It's like playing meaningful baseball and having fans be invested.
01:47I think that means something to fans as well.
01:49And so I think even from a baseball perspective, even from a business perspective, I think you're
01:54probably going to have more fans in the piece that you're playing meaningful games and holding
01:56on to guys who are, you know, who have made an impact, right?
02:00And I think that outside of C.J. Abrams and James Wood, no one's made more of an impact
02:03with season than Foster Griffin.
02:05And so I think it would be meaningful, not only from a baseball perspective, but also
02:08to me, a business perspective of trying to sell fans and the fact that, like, you're
02:12going to give them a chance to try it.
02:13I think the clubhouse deserves it.
02:15I think they played well enough to do it.
02:17And I think they deserve that shot.
02:18So the clubhouse argument, to me, is the best one.
02:21And it makes so much sense.
02:23To go into the clubhouse after trading your best pitcher when you don't have pitchers,
02:27to C.J. Abrams or James Wood and say, all right, guys, go make the playoffs now.
02:32We took away the ace.
02:33It's the one guy that's the, you know, he is basically the lighthouse in the storm all
02:37year long when everything's going badly.
02:39But just keep winning.
02:40I totally get that.
02:42But the other part of this is, a year from now, if he's not on the team, it will look
02:49foolish if they could have gotten something decent.
02:51I don't know what that looks like.
02:53But that would be my caveat.
02:54Like, you know how much better off this system is because the Nats got Ronnie Cruz when they
02:59flipped Michael Soroka?
03:01Yeah.
03:01Now, I know it was a completely different world.
03:03I get it.
03:03They weren't competitive.
03:04But my point is just, fast forward a year, if the return is pretty solid, and there's
03:10a world where if Scoobles not traded, he's one of the best available pitchers on the market,
03:14it's almost malpractice not to try to get something for him, no?
03:20Yeah, for sure.
03:22I think it comes down to what is the market for him.
03:25Is it a return for a fourth or fifth starter?
03:29Is it a return for a second or third starter in the season, right?
03:31Like, that's a big question.
03:33As you mentioned, like, the players you can get in return, I mean, you're looking at like
03:36a DJ Herz that they got for Candelario, who's a solid, you know, potential back end.
03:42I know he's hurt, right?
03:43Like a back end of the rotation guy.
03:44And potentially he maybe has a little bit more of a higher ceiling, right?
03:47It's like you basically give yourself more chances to try to bring talent into the organization
03:52to give you a shot to produce a big leader out of it.
03:54So I can't blame the Nationals for trying it.
03:57I think I even said that, right?
03:58Like, if they did do it, like, I wouldn't be mad at them for doing it.
04:00Like, I understand why they did it.
04:01I get why they would have to do it.
04:03And, like, you're right.
04:03It would seem a little bit like malpractice, right?
04:05But, like, but also it's like you don't necessarily know what next year's going to look like.
04:08You only know what you have now, right?
04:10And so I think that's why I still, there's something in me that just kind of keeps feeling
04:13like it might be the right move just to keep them.
04:16You know, I wouldn't blame them for trading them.
04:18But, like, you're only two games that have a wild card.
04:20You just took two out of three from the Diamondbacks a series prior.
04:23Like, they can stack up pretty well with both the teams in the mix.
04:26I don't know.
04:26That's the back and forth.
04:28Andrew Golden, Baltimore Banner.
04:31Should the Nationals trade Foster Griffin?
04:33Wrote a column about that.
04:35So the other thing I want to dive into then in terms of return is the qualifying offer part of
04:40this.
04:41So this is something I keep bringing up because the qualifying offer I'm told by people within the organization
04:47would be right after the second round is the comp pick you'd get back if he turns it down and
04:52leaves.
04:52So just for people that don't understand how this works, basically they could offer him the QO,
04:57which if he takes it you're paying him over $20 million for one year next year.
05:00There is a world, I guess, where ownership wouldn't even do that,
05:03and they wouldn't offer him the qualifying offer.
05:05But for the sake of the conversation, Andrew,
05:07let's just pretend that they're a real baseball team for a second, okay?
05:10And that they're willing to actually offer him the $20 million for a year.
05:14He then turns it down because he can get, I don't know, 50 or 60 or whatever.
05:17Now you get a pick outside of the top 50.
05:20This is where Paul Timoni found like Roman Anthony right outside of the second round.
05:24The player you're adding, if it falls in your favor there,
05:27is like maybe the fifth or sixth best prospect in your system, potentially,
05:31going into the following year.
05:33Or that might be better than what they could get back anyway.
05:36How does that add to the equation here?
05:39Yeah, and I think it turns out, you know,
05:42Paul Timoni talks a lot about building the player development monster, right?
05:45And so if you trust your staff and trust your development and your draft group
05:49to find those diamonds in the ruts and those guys,
05:52you can really make an impact.
05:53I would want to give those guys as many assets as possible to be able to do that.
05:57And I think that having the compensatory pick would be really beneficial.
06:00And so it's like I think it would be helpful, you know,
06:03if they're willing to get that qualifying offer to keep foster
06:05and add yourself another draft pick that you could turn into,
06:09like you said, a productive part of the system.
06:11That could be the fifth or sixth best player in the system.
06:13That's not like a mid-second round or wherever that is.
06:17I think that's a really good pick still, right?
06:18And so I think there's definitely value in giving your guys as many opportunities
06:22as possible to hit on a prospect through the draft that they really value
06:26and that they can develop well.
06:28So I think that's worth the shot.
06:30Again, like there has to be – they have to be willing to do the qualifying offer,
06:34which I would hope they'll be able to do given how much is coming off the books, right?
06:37But, like, I think it makes sense to give, you know, that front office
06:41and that draft as many opportunities as possible to see what they can develop
06:44and see who they can scout and get.
06:46A couple more days and Connolly Early is going to make his first rehab start
06:50and presumably you gave it a couple of weeks
06:52and he could rejoin this rotation mid-late August.
06:56Do you think that plays a factor in this decision?
06:58Do you think because of acquiring him they're more apt to move Foster Griffin,
07:02feeling like, all right, maybe we miss, you know,
07:04two times through the rotation where Foster would be,
07:06but then essentially Connolly Early steps right in immediately
07:09at the end of the month or something?
07:11How do you think that plays in to their decision with this?
07:15I mean, I think it definitely plays in to their decision, right?
07:17Like, it softens the blow in the sense of, like, if you were to lose Foster,
07:21like – I mean, like, if you're not replacing Foster in the sense of, like,
07:23I don't know if you can replicate what he's – I mean,
07:27I think in terms of, like, you know, having Connolly Early,
07:30who I think is really talented, but I think it softens the blow
07:33and gives you a legitimate guy to pair with Cade Cavalli, right?
07:36And so I think having him makes it a little bit easier to deal Foster
07:40than I think it would have been if you just dealt Foster
07:42and there's nobody else, you know, behind Cade Cavalli.
07:45Like, I think that would have been tough,
07:46but I think it almost helps make their case that they were to trade him,
07:50that they have Connolly there.
07:53You know, but I think you could also make the argument of the same case that,
07:55like, in theory, if his team makes a run with the best offense in baseball
07:59and you're looking at a three-game wild-card series
08:01and you have Cade Foster and Connolly, who's pitched in a playoff game last year,
08:05like, that's a good group I think I would go to bat with
08:08with the best offense in baseball.
08:09So it's interesting, but I do think having him softens the blow
08:14in terms of, you know, if you were to trade Foster,
08:17like, at least you have a second guy behind Cade.
08:20Andrew, Paul Timoni was on with the Junkies.
08:22He's mentioned this a couple of times with the Junks.
08:24He was on yesterday saying that there's probably a threading in the needle
08:27of buying and selling.
08:29What do you think that looks like?
08:33I think that it could be, like, a trading of Jacob Young,
08:36who is an outfielder who maybe might be a better fit in a better roster.
08:39I think that could look like a trading of Luis Garcia
08:42because you have Abimelec Ortiz in the organization
08:44and you could call him up if you trade Luis.
08:47I think moves like that, you know, obviously trading any of the infielders,
08:51if there's somehow a return for, like, a Vivas or a Tenna or a Chaparro,
08:55like, if somebody's willing to and you feel like you can cast that in
08:58for more depth in your system, I'd say go for it, right?
09:00But I think those are the kind of moves that you're making.
09:01I don't necessarily look at their roster at the moment
09:03and say there's anybody who really stands out.
09:06Because, like, all the one-year rentals, like, a Michaelis or a Littell
09:09have necessarily turned out the way that the Nationals have wanted it to, right?
09:11And so I think, like, you're looking at, like, a surplus
09:14and I think that Luis Garcia is a surplus
09:17and I think that Jacob Young is a surplus.
09:18I think Luis is interesting because they traded Curtis Meade, right,
09:21with a lot of homers.
09:22And so by letting go of that guy and you're letting go of Luis,
09:24like, I do think it probably affects your offense a bit.
09:27I'm just not sure how much.
09:28But I still think he could be traded.
09:30I think they could replace him
09:31because they have the options in the system to do so.
09:33They really like Jorbit B-Boss.
09:35I don't have a question.
09:36I just wanted to tell you that.
09:38They do.
09:39They do.
09:40They do.
09:41For sure.
09:41Although yesterday I will say, like, you know,
09:43Blake did say that Jacob Young did bunt ahead of –
09:46that was his choice.
09:47I was able to sleep last night after that, yes.
09:50Jacob Young decided to put the bunt down.
09:52But I thought initially this was, like, just, like,
09:56item number 932 of them thinking Jorbit B-Boss is, like, the guy.
10:00But get you an employer that feels as good about you as they feel about B-Boss.
10:07It's funny.
10:08I mean, look, I will say this.
10:10Like, it's, like, I guess the argument is, like, you don't want to waste –
10:13you know, you don't want a prospect or a guy who you like to come up
10:16and play on the bench so you just kind of have B-Boss there.
10:18But I think at some point, like, it's, like, you know, it's very clear that wasn't –
10:21you know, that wasn't the – you know, that didn't work out.
10:24But also, like, I think you need to try to make those trades
10:26and see if you can have a potential to take a chance on a guy with no options
10:29and give him a shot.
10:30Totally.
10:31You know, it just didn't work out, right?
10:33Like, that's – but I think that's kind of how it goes.
10:34Like, you just hope you hit on him.
10:35I might hit on Curtis Mead, right?
10:36So, you know, you just never really know.
10:38No, no, no.
10:39Using him or having him, that isn't that crazy to me.
10:42It's the fascination with him having to play every single day at all times
10:46and in as many situations as possible.
10:50That's interesting to me.
10:52Andrew, always excellent, really good column, man.
10:54We'll have people go check it out at the Baltimore Banner.
10:57Thanks, guys.
10:58Appreciate it.
10:58You got it.
10:59So, I love the way he said that.
11:01When you read the piece, you'll see.
11:03He goes, my baseball brain says trade him.
11:04Yeah.
11:05He didn't use his heart, but that was kind of what he was getting at.
11:07It's like, you know, I also feel like you just can't.
11:09And I have battled this for weeks.
11:12I've come around now, and maybe it's just the resignation to –
11:16I have thought they were going to trade him for the better part of the last month.
11:19And over the last two weeks, it's become glaringly evident.
11:22I've told you this off air.
11:24I've said this on air.
11:25When I ask other people with other teams, they think it's ludicrous that, like,
11:30they would do anything other than trade him.
11:31They think it's just crazy that they wouldn't be shopping him
11:35and selling off on him right now based on what he was a year ago, what he is now,
11:40what you can get, almost like this Curtis Mead-like thing.
11:42That said, they're two games out of the wild card, man.
11:45Exactly.
11:46It's just easier said than done.
11:47I say this – the example I give, and I was talking to Barry's for Luga about this.
11:52He wrote a piece on this as well.
11:53And if you watch golf at all, you'll understand the reference I'm going to make here.
11:57So there are occasionally spots – I've seen videos recently –
12:01where Jordan Spieth, he loves to put himself in terrible positions
12:04and then try to hit a miracle shot.
12:05And sometimes his caddie will try to be like, dude, no.
12:08And sometimes he'll look at his caddie, Michael Greller, and say, this one's on me.
12:12Whatever happens, this one's on me.
12:14Sometimes I think as a general manager or president of baseball operations,
12:17in this case for Paul Tiboni, you can do that.
12:19Where you go, this one's on me.
12:21We can look back in five years, and I'll wear it.
12:23I made the mistake here.
12:25If I'm Paul Tiboni here, this is one where I could say, this one's on me.
12:28We're keeping Foster Griffin.
12:29We're going to see how it plays out.
12:31And if we miss out on some team's seventh-ranked prospect
12:35and that guy turns out to be Aaron freaking Judge, I'll wear it.
12:39I don't think I'm going to have that happen.
12:41I think that I'm going to see what happens this season, play it out,
12:44and assuming they do the right thing where they're able to extend the qualifying offer,
12:48and if he leaves, or even if he pitches for your team for $20 million next season,
12:53I'll live with the results there versus I don't think I'm missing out on some can't-miss guy.
12:58I also think sometimes we overcomplicate these situations.
13:04I remember texting somebody with the Nationals earlier this season about something
13:09that was a pretty hot-button issue, and I'm like, hey, I'm looking for some context on this.
13:13And their point was like, well, it's kind of common sense.
13:17It's not overly nuanced, and that's how I feel about this in a sense,
13:20which is to say, here we are, do you trade him?
13:23Do you not trade him?
13:24You probably make all the calls.
13:26You do all the due diligence, you get all the offers,
13:28and then there's either a deal that you go, we have to do this, or there's not.
13:33Correct.
13:33And it might not be that complicated.
13:35We want to have these bigger discussions, and maybe what we're trying to hone in on is,
13:40should they trade him, yes or no?
13:42Well, the answer is impossible until you know what's being offered.
13:46And if you're getting back a mid-level minor league player who's, I'm just going to say,
13:51the 14th best player in a decent system, that's not worth it, maybe.
13:56Yeah, I'm good on that.
13:58Especially with this qualifying offer thing.
14:00Now, the part I don't know, and I don't know if Andrew knows,
14:02is the qualifying offer would mean ownership has to essentially give you permission
14:07to spend $20 million on Foster Griffin next year.
14:10It's actually a little more than that.
14:12But it's a very real possibility that ownership wouldn't do that.
14:15The biggest commitment to a pitcher they've made, to my knowledge,
14:18this side of the World Series is Trevor Williams.
14:21Since the Strasburg deal, it's like $7 million a year for Trevor Williams.
14:24So they may say, especially with a lot of work stoppage and everything going on next offseason,
14:29that maybe they wouldn't do that commitment.
14:32But if you're able, and Timoni's got to know this too,
14:35I have to know beforehand, would we be able to give him a qualifying offer or not?
14:39Because if I'm picking up a top 60 pick on a 1 to 100, what value is that?
14:46Let's say that's an 85 value.
14:48Well, now I need an 85 value prospect back.
14:50That's a really good prospect.
14:51That makes it easier.
14:52So there's a lot of things he's got to know that he's going to know that we will never know.
14:57Correct.
14:57As we're trying to answer what to do with Foster Griffin.
15:00Yeah, and I think that's the key, is if he gets an offer where he thinks it's better
15:04than the pick that they could potentially get back or one more season of Foster Griffin,
15:08then yeah, go ahead and take that deal and it would hurt.
15:10But we also don't know on the flip side, Grant, like he says there's going to be buy and sell.
15:15And I tend to believe what Paul Timoni is selling, right?
15:18Or at least saying on the junks right now.
15:20I don't think this is something that he's blowing smoke up our butts, right?
15:23I don't think he's doing anything like that.
15:25I think he's telling the truth there.
15:26If that's the case, they very well could say, expiring contract Foster Griffin,
15:31that's an obvious sell candidate.
15:32Adios.
15:33Even though we like what you've done, we'll trade you.
15:35It doesn't mean they're not going to go to acquire a reliever.
15:37And then Connelly Early all of a sudden slots into his spot in the starting rotation.
15:41And they'll say to you, yeah, we lost a starter, but we already got another starter in Connelly Early
15:46and we acquired a reliever for some lower level prospect that we regained the prospects for
15:50in the Foster Griffin deal.
15:51So that's going to be the interesting thing to see how he weighs those two things.
15:55By the way, G&D on the fan from Ashburn, day two of training camp.
16:00The Nats game's been picked up by national TV tonight.
16:03Let's go.
16:03July 30th, Nats baseball, national television, by choice?
16:09Yeah.
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