00:00The numbers aren't really all that good this morning.
00:03We haven't had a lot of numbers like this in a while.
00:05And they are backward looking because it's first quarter or second quarter GDP.
00:09You've got to go back to April, May and June comes in at one and a half percent.
00:15That's after a 2.1 percent rise in the first quarter, and it's below the 2 percent that was anticipated.
00:21Now, personal consumption was higher for the quarter, 3.2 percent than in the first quarter, 0.5 percent.
00:27But it started off strong in the first quarter and then was revised down.
00:31The latest numbers on income and spending, which go into this second quarter report, are from June.
00:37Income's up just two-tenths after seven-tenths the prior month.
00:42Personal spending up three-tenths.
00:44It was up nine-tenths in the month of May.
00:48So when you average that out, it's still not a good number in terms of the consumer.
00:52And we'll have to see whether or not that continues to be revised.
00:57The PCE price index, everybody's been kind of waiting on that, although they can figure it out.
01:02Down a tenth of a percent as forecast.
01:04It was up half a percent in the month of May.
01:07On a year-over-year basis, that leaves us at 3.7 percent.
01:12That's down from 4.1 percent.
01:15The core PCE number is at an increase of one-tenth of a percent, much lower than the three-tenths
01:23we had in May.
01:24And on a year-over-year basis, we fall from 3.4 to 3.3 percent.
01:29And finally, jobless claims.
01:30Now, there's one that's good news, John.
01:33197,000.
01:34That's up from a revised 188.
01:36Remember, last week was the lowest since 1969.
01:40So we don't have that historical comparison.
01:42But we do have a very low jobless claims rate.
01:46Continuing claims, 1,782,000.
01:49And that is down from 1,789,000.
01:54So all in all, the economy does appear to have slowed in the second quarter.
01:59The labor market seems okay.
02:01But you have to question, where is the consumer going at this point?
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