00:00It looks like a pretty good Friday for the labor market overall.
00:03178,000 jobs were created during the month of March.
00:08Of course, this is before the war for the most part.
00:10The unemployment rate drops to 4.3 percent from 4.4 percent.
00:15Change in private payrolls, 186,000.
00:19And the change in manufacturing payrolls, a positive 15,000.
00:23We'd seen other earlier indicators like ADP suggesting manufacturing would lose jobs.
00:28Average hourly earnings up two-tenths of a percent on the month for the year-over-year rate.
00:34Takes it to 3.5 percent, down from 3.8 percent.
00:38That's not a bad fall.
00:40Fed thinks they're kind of in a sweet spot there.
00:43Average weekly hours, 34.2.
00:45Labor force participation rate does drop a little bit to 61.9 from 62 percent.
00:51And the U6 rate is at 8 percent.
00:53That goes up from 7.9.
00:56But overall, again, 178,000 jobs created and an unemployment rate of 4.3 percent.
01:02So good news on the labor front.
01:04And it does give the Fed the opportunity to continue watching inflation.
01:09We were looking for a bounce back in health care because the strike had finished.
01:12The weather's improved.
01:14Weather-sensitive areas are looking for an improvement there as well.
01:17Is it more than just that, Mike?
01:18More than just a one-off?
01:19It does appear to be a little bit more than a one-off.
01:22And I think the unemployment rate is what's going to catch the Fed's attention because it's a bigger drop than
01:26even anticipated.
01:28We go from 4.441 percent in February down to 4.256, so more than about almost 100 basis points
01:39lower on the month.
01:42And then you look at the labor force change, 396,000 fewer people into the labor force.
01:49That's not a good news story necessarily, but it does suggest that maybe there is an immigration effect finally starting
01:57to hit overall.
01:58You mentioned weather.
01:59Construction jobs were up by 26,000, a little bit less than people had anticipated.
02:03But it is a rebound from the bad weather that we saw in February.
02:07And manufacturing jobs, as I mentioned earlier, up 15,000.
02:11Information services and financial were the big losers.
02:15Financial jobs down 15,000 on the month.
02:20Lisa mentioned the education and health overall up 91,000.
02:26That's the category that's provided the most jobs overall.
02:29Leisure and hospitality, 44,000.
02:32And we do see a loss of jobs in government of 8,000, 18,000 at the federal level.
02:38There was a thought that maybe that would level out, but it hasn't yet so far.
02:42So keep an eye on the various categories and how they have changed.
02:47But I think the story of the day is while we get a bigger total number than anticipated, a significant
02:54amount,
02:54it's really the unemployment rate in the big fall there within the 4 percent range that is going to catch
03:00the Fed's eye.
03:01And the drop in the labor force that is causing that.
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