00:00Why are people so sanguine about inflation all of a sudden. It seems like this may have been a surprise.
00:04Was it a surprise to you.
00:06Not really. Consumers have been seeing a bit of a downtick in gasoline prices over the last few weeks and
00:14consumers absolutely did notice that.
00:16So they're feeling a little bit of relief on that. And it shows up in their assessments of their of
00:21their personal finances. However overall
00:24price levels inflation both for gas as well as other prices are still very high from the perspective of consumers.
00:32They're still feeling a seeing a lot of risks on the horizon.
00:36So overall consumers still aren't feeling great despite this recent pickup. Pull back a little bit if you could. Mike
00:42McKee giving us that kind of month to month comparison there when it comes to the inflation expectations and sentiment
00:47in particular.
00:47But pulling back a little bit more here. As he said there we've been at the nadir. We've been at
00:51this historic low.
00:52As you look at these numbers more broadly compared to what we've seen over the last quarter. Last half of
00:57a year. How do you think about the numbers that we got today.
01:00Very clearly since since the Iran conflict began consumers have viewed a deterioration in economic prospects.
01:07Things had ended 2025 began 2026 on a bit of an upturn. Consumers had been bracing for a worst case
01:16scenario to come out of the tariff situation last year.
01:18That didn't come to pass. The federal shutdown ended. And so consumers were on the upswing. But as soon as
01:24that Iran conflict began consumers really downgraded their views of the economy.
01:29At first they weren't really sure if this was going to be a very quick situation like in Venezuela. But
01:34now you know three four months on consumers are quite worried
01:38that high energy prices that supply disruptions in the Middle East could become prolonged and that could pass through to
01:46other prices that they face.
01:48Joanne what have we been seeing in terms of how the preliminary data differs from the final data. Should we
01:54expect much change over the next couple of weeks.
01:57It depends entirely on what happens in the economy. What happens in the world in the next couple of weeks.
02:03If we have substantial developments in the Strait of Hormuz
02:06that allow gas prices to come down even more that give people the confidence that that the supply disruptions will
02:14be short term then consumers are likely to upgrade their views.
02:17But if these if these supply disruptions remain in place with no end in sight it's very likely that consumer
02:26views will remain dour.
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