00:00Ender, let's start with the jobs report for January, and then we can get to the benchmark revisions.
00:04What's your reaction to that?
00:06Face value, it's a very strong number, John, like you were just mentioning there,
00:10130,000 on the month, much stronger than expected.
00:13And within the details, some strong numbers.
00:15Look at manufacturing, adding, I think it was 5,000 jobs.
00:18That's a big turnaround from the manufacturing story of last year.
00:22The unemployment rate falling as well, that's unexpected.
00:26And the private sector seems to be driving the job story because the government continues to lose staff,
00:32looking at the headlines coming out from the data so far.
00:34So, as I say, face value, first reaction, these numbers lend themselves to, at the very least,
00:41the stabilising jobs market that the Fed were talking about a few weeks ago.
00:44Andy, you've heard the pushback multiple times.
00:46It'll be no different this morning.
00:47People will say there's narrow breadth here.
00:49Most of this is healthcare.
00:50They'll also say, look at the benchmark revisions.
00:52All of this will just get revised away in the year ahead.
00:55Are they wrong?
00:57Well, the benchmark revisions are notable.
00:59They've obviously come in a little bit better than expected, John,
01:03and coming in with an eight-handle rather than the nine-handle.
01:05So, that's not insignificant.
01:06I think, though, in terms of policymaking world, they're already ahead of the curve on that.
01:11They would have anticipated, given the preliminary revisions that we had,
01:14that the jobs market would be that much weaker last year anyway.
01:17So, to some extent, that story is baked into the cake.
01:19But there's no doubt about it that, and that's what I said earlier,
01:23at face value, the January figures are strong.
01:25But, of course, there will be a revision story, not just on a month-by-month basis,
01:29but, again, when we get to the end of the year, some of this will be recalculated.
01:32But right here, right now, you'd have to say that that January number
01:35at least suggests a healthier jobs market than a lot of people were expecting.
01:38So, you'd have to say that January number of people were expecting.
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