00:00uh but they've lost three in a row they're four games out now they've got melton going tonight
00:06against kramer and listen melton is a he's looked the numbers look great but boy oh boy does it feel
00:14like he's gotten away with murder a lot of hard contact a lot of barrels uh it feels like there
00:20is some regression coming his way but i don't know that baltimore is the team that is going to make
00:28that happen or though i give them credit they've been actually pretty good here uh tom down the
00:34stretch and they're going to need to be that if they're going to overtake let's say boston for one
00:39of those final wild card spots they they really need to and you know to your point i feel like
00:45every time we come on here we're talking about troy melton or some other pitcher that's just due for
00:50massive regression we talked about melton last week and yes he continues to get away with murder and
00:56the walks and the hits and they're not turning into runs and again just to put things in into
01:03perspective you know left on base percentage is an interesting stat or an interesting metric when
01:08you're looking at pitchers you allow runners on base in any capacity hits walks whatever and then how
01:14often are they getting stranded there do you constantly pitch yourself out of trouble and
01:18obviously things regress to the league average he has a 94.1 left on base percentage this year and
01:24this is through 60 innings there's not some small sample size 60 innings to put things in respect of
01:28chris sale who you know was supposed to pitch today the men's praise game got postponed because of
01:33impending rate chris sale his left on base percentage is 82 this year and chris sale's like a borderline
01:38and outside young candidate troy melton's up over 90 percent like he's due for that regression you can't
01:44just let runners on base for free and then just poof you don't give up any runs but to your
01:49point
01:49the orioles are not the team that are super threatening so when we look at this matchup i
01:54think melton is the better pitcher but it's been smoke and mirrors better compared to kramer who's
01:59given up what is this two earned runs in three straight starts six and four and two the other
02:03starts i don't trust the tigers but i at least they're a competent team compared to yours lineup which
02:09i can't trust i agree i want to say runs could be coming here i mean it wasn't a low
02:17scoring game
02:18last night uh i i'm feels like runs are coming here tonight in this one you're looking at a total
02:24it opened up at nine i i still see nines although it's juiced at the over here maybe even a
02:30nine and a
02:30half but yeah uh i think the bullpens are both a little suspect they're both a little worked right
02:36now so uh why not an over here tom and if you like detroit to to bounce back and get
02:42one here
02:44their team total up and over may not be bad either it just depends on which one of these pitchers
02:48you're looking to fade here tonight i think both teams can get three or four across and that puts us
02:55live for the win you know if you're looking at a nine and the tigers and melton i wouldn't back
03:00the
03:00money line i would think if they win this game they're going to get four or five of their own
03:04the orioles add in you know four and then we're at nine right there five four so give me the
03:08over
03:09before i took a money line on either side now if you had to uh if you had to look
03:15at the future
03:16market right now and between these two teams and by the way the orioles three and one on the year
03:22against detroit so they've done a pretty good job so far of battling 50 and 57 for detroit 52 and
03:3055 for baltimore which one if you had to bet would actually make a run at this year
03:36once we get to august you know which one has the better shot at actually making the postseason because
03:43i certainly trust if all things being equal i trust detroit's that number one and two scoobel
03:49and mize i trust them over anything baltimore's rolling out yeah what it would it would be bradish
03:56and shane boz for baltimore which i couldn't possibly trust listen if detroit can you know
04:02throw away a 10 game lead last year hopefully they can make some of that up this year and go
04:07on some
04:07miracle september run to find their way into the playoffs and cleveland falls back the twins fall back
04:13and they can find their way into the third wild card spot the white socks win the division in that
04:17case
04:17but it would be crazy and i would have to take the tigers knowing that you have a true cy
04:22young
04:22candidate as a game one starter i would have to take them but it's not with a whole lot of
04:26confidence
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