Red Sox Favorite in Detroit Game Amidst Challenging Weather

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00:00Today, the Red Sox, an ever-so-slight money line pick-em favorite, minus 112.

00:04Now, that updated number, you see it there.

00:07Total, eight and a half.

00:08DRS, you expected runs yesterday in Detroit.

00:11Probably not all one-sided coming from the Tigers.

00:14Do you think we see more offense today in the Motor City?

00:17We could understand this, though, too.

00:19Rain is in the forecast, 68-degree temperatures,

00:21and another double-digit wind blowing in from right field.

00:24So not great batting efficiency numbers here just for the weather itself,

00:28and also not really a hitter's ballpark overall, more of a pitcher's ballpark in Detroit.

00:33You take a look at Brian Baio, and he comes in with a 2.01 ERA, but a 4.72 XFIP number.

00:39What that means is he's getting a little bit lucky here, a 116 XFIP minus, which is elevated as well.

00:45But take a look at this.

00:46This is where some of those analytical numbers don't match up with your eye test, right?

00:49Tyler Halton comes into this game with an 83 XFIP minus and a 3.12 ERA and a 340 XFIP number.

00:56He said, but that's all correlates together.

00:58Well, take a look at the individual statistics here for that pitcher on the season.

01:02For the full length of the season, he's only had 72 batters that he's faced here,

01:07but lefty batters, 24 of them, gotten the best of them as a left-handed pitcher.

01:11286 ISO and a 373 weighted on base percentage.

01:14In the last 30 days, both lefties and righties have gotten the best of them here.

01:18So are you trusting the underlying metrics of that pitcher

01:21or the damage that has been done over the past 30 days against them?

01:24Boston should wake up tonight, but yesterday just showed me,

01:28like, I don't know what that lineup does sometimes on a day-to-day basis.

01:30Really hard to get a grasp on this game tonight for me.