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00:00Not that it's really so much a question, it's just an interesting fact.
00:05Sal Capaccio with us on the Western Hotline.
00:08Just in this break, I do this a lot now.
00:11I just run out to my car, I'll even move it closer, like I just did, for something to do.
00:17But just to get some steps in, get some fresh air.
00:20And I turn the car on, and it's on the SiriusXM Fantasy Channel.
00:24And they're talking about Josh Allen and his props for this year.
00:31And apparently his touchdown, I don't even know this from having looked,
00:34his touchdown pass prop is 24.5.
00:38And one host said, why wouldn't you go over 24.5?
00:43He's never not done that in the last six years.
00:45And the other guy said, well, here's why.
00:50Literally, his touchdown pass total has gone down five years in a row since his peak of 37 in 2020.
01:0037, 36, 35, 29, 28, 25.
01:03That's tough to do.
01:04For as much winning as they've done, that's kind of tough to do.
01:07So I don't know, Sal, as Sal joins us once again here on the Western Hotline,
01:13what do you feel like is maybe in the wind for Allen and his numbers this year?
01:17Are we looking at a season where things sort of return to maybe, if you will, the good old days
01:24with him?
01:25I mean, over 4,000 yards and maybe in the 30s and touchdown passes, that kind of a season?
01:30Or is this more of a trend you feel like you can trust that those numbers,
01:34not because of his performance necessarily, but they have gone down pretty consistently over the last few years?
01:42I think it's pretty circumstantial.
01:44I mean, they have the league's leading rusher.
01:46He's great at the goal line running.
01:49He's had double-digit touchdown rushes over the last few years, 15, 12, 14.
01:53So I understand, like, you're betting the prop, and the prop is the passing touchdowns, and that's what it is.
01:59But I think it's just kind of a little more random kind of thing when it comes to maybe how
02:05they get in the end zone from where they are.
02:07Are they from maybe the four-yard line is a pass?
02:09You get to the two-yard line, it's a run, right?
02:10It could very well be those things.
02:12But you guys know one of the things that I've said for the last while here is I do think
02:16that Josh Allen will have an uptick in numbers,
02:20and maybe that includes both in the positive and the negative.
02:24So that could be more attempts, more yards, more touchdowns, more interceptions,
02:30because I just think that Joe Brady's not going to care as much as Sean McDermott did about let's not
02:38lose the game before we have a chance to win it.
02:40Let's care about who the other quarterback is on the other side and not give them the ball.
02:45And that's not to say it's too conservative, but it is a bit of a conservative way to think on
02:49a game-to-game basis.
02:50And I don't think Joe will think that way.
02:52So maybe the circumstances will change, right?
02:56Correct.
02:57Yeah, I've been saying maybe there's a chance with the defense being so new
03:04and whether they've got all the right pieces to put in all the right places for them
03:08that maybe they get dragged into, even if they don't want to throw more,
03:13maybe they feel like they have to if they have to keep up in some games because their defense,
03:18they've got a tough schedule.
03:20They've got teams that are going to be able to score points on most teams.
03:24And if the Bills' defense is below what it's been, that usually leads to more throwing,
03:30and that would be, therefore, more numbers.
03:33No, that's a great point.
03:34I agree with that.
03:34If they have to play from behind, right?
03:36I mean, it's possible that the defense suddenly just, oh, my God, Jim Leonard's unbelievable.
03:41Look what they're doing, and they're playing with the lead more.
03:44And all this kind of matters.
03:45You know that, Mike, from playing as much fantasy as you do,
03:47that you have to kind of think about maybe some of the quarterbacks who are playing in those circumstances
03:52where they have to throw the ball more and get more numbers and get fat.
03:56So I just think that's a weird way to kind of handicap it.
04:02But it is an interesting stat.
04:04There's no doubt.
04:05I wouldn't give it much credence, I guess is what I'm saying,
04:07that he's gone down in touchdown passes every year.
04:10I mean, so that means just keep going down and down.
04:13I think that number would be one that I would bet over.
04:16I'll tell you one thing he does every year.
04:17He's available.
04:18He plays.
04:19You know, when you're talking about a lot of these guys, you have to think about that.
04:23And, you know, Josh has played, and he will play.
04:25He's going to play through whatever he can.
04:27And I think that always gives him more of a chance to hit those numbers.
04:30We're out here getting James Cook and other guys, Ty Johnson.
04:33They're like an attempt, at least, at records and milestones in Week 18.
04:38Maybe Allen, for once, could play more than one play in Week 18.
04:41Wouldn't that be nice?
04:42If he could go for maybe this is the year he turns the streak back around in terms of touchdown
04:47passes.
04:48Although, of course, it's, you know, just fine if the Bills end up not needing that game the final week.
04:54Well, yeah, some of this is the schedule, and some of this is defense.
04:58You talk about circumstances, Dallas, Cincinnati, Arizona last year,
05:04teams where, from a stat standpoint, everybody got rich.
05:08But those weren't winning teams, right?
05:10So, you don't want to have that happen either.
05:13Well, Sal, we're a week away from training camp, and it's still a week.
05:18But what for you might be, as you walk in there next week, the top storyline?
05:25Last night I was on with ADP Chasing, that show, and pointed out,
05:30I brought the stat up about Coleman, that nobody has more touchdown catches for the Bills
05:34over the last two seasons than Coleman does at eight, he and Shakir.
05:38And, like, Brady's going to get more questions about Keon Coleman than anyone else.
05:42I'm not sure that's true.
05:44What do you think will be the lead story or two when camp starts?
05:50Of the organization or the roster?
05:52I guess Brady, right?
05:52Because to me, it's the – yeah, because the organization, it's Brady.
05:55Brady himself is the lead story.
05:56Right.
05:57Right?
05:57Jim Leonard's a big story.
05:59So, if you're talking roster, though, which is what I think you're talking about here,
06:04yeah, I mean, that's probably something that's a big deal.
06:07I think D.J. Moore, like, specifically about D.J. Moore
06:09and what kind of mentality it's going to be to, you know, have him in this offense.
06:14Everybody eats and, you know, that kind of thing.
06:16You know, and you guys know I've said Caleb Elarm-Zor at linebacker is a big story to me.
06:21But, you know, how much does that resonate?
06:23You know, it's an inside linebacker.
06:25You know, people like the juicy stuff, the sexy stuff.
06:27That's the wide receivers.
06:28That's the guys touching the ball.
06:30There's no contract situations that, you know, like James Cook was a big story last year.
06:34So, it's probably wide receiver.
06:36It's probably D.J. Moore.
06:37And I would say even to a little lesser extent, maybe Dalton Kincaid at tight end and staying healthy.
06:41And, you know, how much are these guys going to be able to really, you know,
06:44elevate their passing game with Joe Brady as the head man now?
06:48Yeah, it's so interesting.
06:49I feel like, not that I predict that Brady or anyone will get temperamental about being
06:57asked about Coleman, but at some point we're going to have to recognize we're talking about
07:01the Bills' fourth or fifth receiver right now.
07:03Like, that's who he is.
07:04Like, his draft status and the benching and all the stuff, of course, and the owner's words
07:11about it, and then Brady's words on top of that, sort of trying to offset it, has made
07:16it such a focal point, but yeah, like, Kincaid is a way more pertinent to me idea.
07:23Like, can he play more than 40% of the snaps?
07:27Like, do they get into camp and like, wow, he's healthier than he's been since he's been
07:31here.
07:32You know, the knees are good, and like that, because he was a killer for them when he's
07:38on the field and they target him, but they just can't use him for a variety of reasons.
07:42And if that changes, that's a huge upgrade, I think.
07:47So, Mike, you had Ryan Paganetti on, right?
07:50Correct?
07:50A couple weeks ago?
07:51Last Wednesday.
07:52You told me about him, so I went and found him, and I, you know, looked at some of his
07:56stuff.
07:56There's a lot there.
07:57And one of the things that he had tweeted about, and then I quote tweeted it because
08:01I thought it was super interesting, was this very topic, which is he has a graphic on run
08:07past tendency by tight end when teams are 11 personnel.
08:09The way he broke it down was take the team's top tight end as far as usage and take the
08:14team's second tight end as far as usage.
08:16If that tight end, either the top tight end or the other 10 is the only one on the field
08:20in a certain, on first or second down, how much are they passing?
08:24Right.
08:24So, I went through the graphic.
08:25I went through the list.
08:27Okay.
08:27So, a couple things about this.
08:28The Bills' top tight end as far as usage, because obviously of Kincaid's availability,
08:32was Dawson Knox last year.
08:34And when they went with just one tight end and it was only Dawson Knox, they threw 58.6%
08:39on first or second down.
08:40We're not counting third.
08:41Which is about average for the league.
08:43Right.
08:43Maybe a little bit above average.
08:44About average.
08:45When the only tight end on the field was Dalton Kincaid, the Buffalo Bills threw 79.3% of the
08:53time.
08:54I was going to guess the numbers.
08:55That is the number one top number of any tight end in the league.
08:58Yeah.
08:58Which is exactly what teams loathe.
09:01Right.
09:01Being that predictable.
09:03A tell.
09:03That's correct.
09:03That's correct.
09:04Right.
09:04And I quote tweeted him and he wrote back and said that's something the Bills need to
09:08look at.
09:08Yeah.
09:08Because obviously if he's the only tight end in the field, you're tipping your cap as
09:12far as what's happening here.
09:13Right.
09:13But it also gives you a window into what they feel about Dalton Kincaid and him in the passing
09:18game and what they can do.
09:19Or maybe him in the run game and what he can't do.
09:21Right.
09:21Yeah.
09:21But yeah, for sure.
09:23I mean, like that's a monster number.
09:25Almost 80% of the time when he's the only tight end on the field and they're in 11 personnel
09:30and it's him, they're throwing the ball.
09:32Yeah.
09:32It just screams.
09:33We don't want to waste his limited snaps on having him do a thing he's not that good
09:38at anyways, which is block.
09:39This has always been the thing.
09:42Whether he's injured or not, this has always been the thing.
09:46How do they sort of make it work?
09:49It's a great, it's an easy idea.
09:51Kincaid.
09:52He's always been, okay, sure.
09:53I've got a seam stretcher.
09:54I've got, I mean, I've had digs at the time.
09:57I've got all, I've got all kinds of different options, but now I got a tight end who can
10:01get down the field.
10:02Great.
10:02Well, bumps into Shakir, bumps into Knox.
10:05Now you're this running team and where does that leave you?
10:09The thing, this is the point about quarterback sneaks too, with the 70 straight sneaks to
10:13the left.
10:14Anything with the Bills and their offense is like, okay, well, they don't have talent at
10:19wide receiver.
10:20They're, they're obvious when it comes to Kincaid.
10:24You know, they always sneak to the left.
10:25They win constantly.
10:27Right?
10:28It's like, how much, how much better would they be doing if sort of these loggerheads
10:35were like not a problem?
10:36Yeah, it makes you wonder how much they're really giving away with, with these things
10:40that are, look like obvious.
10:42They're so tough to beat.
10:43He's, Alan is so tough to beat.
10:46You like this, talking about their wide receivers again, last night on the podcast.
10:50So one of my co-hosts ran down their entire depth chart and ended on Max Tomczak, a wide
10:56receiver, I'm like, well, you guys aren't going to know who that is.
10:59Nobody knows who he is, but you'll know his uncle, Mike.
11:02I mean, Mike Tomczak, dead silence.
11:04None of my three guys knew who Mike Tomczak was.
11:07Oh my gosh.
11:08How much younger than you are these people?
11:10They're mid-30s.
11:11Wow.
11:12But he was like into the mid-90s.
11:14That's 30 years ago.
11:16Yeah.
11:16And they didn't know who Mike Tomczak was.
11:17I'm like, Jacob, you're a Colts fan.
11:19He roughed up the Colts in a playoff game for Pittsburgh.
11:21He's like, yeah, I don't know.
11:22I just, I started with Peyton Manning.
11:24Wow.
11:25Wow.
11:25I felt like I was on an SNL skit or something, which happens a lot to me on that show.
11:29Right.
11:30Like, oh, you don't know that name?
11:32Is this why everybody thought you were high on that show?
11:34Maybe.
11:35I don't know what to do with that.
11:37Maybe.
11:39Well, Sal, I think, you know, I mentioned the thing about Coleman.
11:44The conversation isn't going to go anywhere, of course.
11:48But I want to pivot to, I don't know that we've talked because we've been vacations
11:53and you and I, you know, we only talked a couple of times while Mike was away.
11:59You know, one of those was for a couple of hours when you were kind enough to take the
12:02time to join me.
12:02But like the Brandon Cooks thing, like the Tim Graham piece for The Athletic a couple
12:07of weeks ago, where Cooks talked about wanting to be in a camp.
12:13He doesn't want to come in at the end, but very contrary to what you might think a veteran
12:18guy wants.
12:19Yeah.
12:20He talked about wanting the calluses that you build through camp.
12:23Like, I wonder if the Bills, you know, maybe that's just his way of trying to turn the
12:28heat up on them making a call on whether he's going to be a part of this or not.
12:32But I wonder if they would ever have a mind to just bring him in ahead of camp before Josh
12:39Palmer has a hamstring or knee problem or before Coleman oversleeps.
12:44Not that any of that has to happen, but we've talked largely about Cooks in that context.
12:48Does someone give them a reason to replace them with Brandon Cooks?
12:53Like, I wonder about just bringing Brandon Cooks in and, you know, if the money's modest
12:57enough, maybe just bring him in.
13:00They could.
13:01I think they probably feel like what snaps are there for other guys to, like the guys
13:06we have, if it all works out, these are our guys.
13:08So we need reps.
13:09We need snaps.
13:10You bring in Brandon Cooks, you're taking that away.
13:12He's not taking snaps away from Ja'Cory Macklin or Max Tomczak, right?
13:17I mean, he's going to probably take snaps away from some of these guys on the upper
13:20end of the depth chart.
13:22So just kind of the way this generally works is you're going to want to wait a little bit
13:28and see if that doesn't materialize and you need someone there.
13:31But certainly, Bulldog, if you, you know, feel like, you know, he could help you in any
13:36capacity, it's an option.
13:37And you're always leaving the chance for another team to do it.
13:41And then, you know, there's an injury to somebody else's camp and he gets signed and
13:45and you're like, oh man, I guess we should have done that.
13:47Right.
13:48And that is the risk that you take.
13:49I mean, right now, looking at their depth chart, it's more in Palmer on the outside.
13:55Shakir in the slot, obviously more in Palmer.
13:58The next two are Coleman and me Cole Hardman Jr.
14:02Like, wouldn't you rather have Brandon Cooks in that me Cole Hardman Jr.
14:05spot, even though Cooks doesn't return punts?
14:08No, I don't know.
14:09Maybe you're not asking me.
14:10You're asking.
14:11I'm asking.
14:12I'll have my chance later.
14:12I'll have my chance later.
14:14It's close.
14:14I mean, yeah, well, Trent Shurfield, right?
14:17I mean, I think he's part of this.
14:18He's, he's, he's, yeah, he's the next layer.
14:21I assume you forget Quentin Skinner.
14:23Yeah.
14:24Skylar Bell?
14:25Skylar Bell.
14:26Well, yeah, but he's behind Shakir on the depth chart.
14:28Like in the slot.
14:30Yes, that's correct.
14:30That's correct.
14:31And on a, on a true, like, if you're going to just slot them, no pun intended here,
14:35and to a depth chart, that's probably right.
14:37But I mean, you could move these guys around.
14:39That's right.
14:40Right.
14:40I do think that Trent Shurfield has a legitimate shot to make this team though, as the Tyrell
14:47Shavers replacement until Tyrell Shavers is ready.
14:49Right.
14:49So that's what you're probably looking at there, but you're right.
14:52I mean, Nicole Hardman return, man.
14:55Yeah.
14:55And if he can really show you, he can do something there.
14:57Then he becomes a guy you could put on the field there.
15:00Yeah.
15:01I like Brandon cooks here.
15:02And I thought that, you know, and all he's saying all the right things you guys know a few
15:06months ago, I wrote, I said on the podcast and we talked about it here that, you know,
15:09I could see Brandon cooks being on this team at some point.
15:12I still can.
15:13I just feel like they want to see what they have on there and their guys in their guys
15:17before they go down that road.
15:19Thank you, Sal.
15:20Talk again soon.
15:21Okay, guys.
15:21Thanks.
15:22That's our Sal Capaccio on the Western hotline.
15:24His appearances are brought to you by New York's only outlet liquor.
15:26When you need to stock up, it's the place to buy a case.
15:29What's your outlet speak now or forever.
15:31Do you want Brandon cooks back?
15:33Mike show up in the bulldog.
15:35803 05.
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