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00:00We've got some 1 o'clock life back here to start the season.
00:03Not next week with Al on Thursday night.
00:07But after that, Chargers, Patriots, those are 1 o'clock games.
00:10Then they go to L.A.
00:13If L.A., we'll see if L.A. is home yet for the game in Week 5, the Rams.
00:18I think, I've got to check, but I think they have games between now and then,
00:21so I'm pretty sure they'll be home.
00:22Yeah, but they might skip them.
00:24They've got to make sure they get their rest.
00:25Ian Hartett's with us from Roto-Wire.
00:28We'll talk a little bit about last night, Wednesday night,
00:30and the upcoming Week 1 slate.
00:33Ian, we made it.
00:35Are you ready for some football?
00:37I am.
00:38I really hope that some of the injury will chill out.
00:42But you know what?
00:42That's unfortunate what we sign up for sometimes.
00:44So those wretched injury guys.
00:47But, hey, Week 1, football's back.
00:48Can't complain too much, right?
00:49When you – no, I agree with that.
00:52When you do your projections or even when you set your lineups,
00:58I like to look – and maybe this is like everybody does this.
01:00I don't even know.
01:01I don't think I've asked you this before.
01:03But I want to go right to the betting markets and the prop bet lines
01:07to see what they're expecting.
01:10Like DJ Moore's number is maybe 48 yards for this game.
01:14Like 48 yards.
01:15And we've talked about him before.
01:17I don't know.
01:17Do you do that?
01:18Do you have a certain tip for anybody trying to predict these games
01:21and set lineups?
01:22Like how you do it personally?
01:24I certainly do like comparing our road-to-wire projections to see kind of,
01:27again, what the prop market is thinking of.
01:29Just, again, trying to find the right line where it's that, you know,
01:33player I'm excited about in the matchup
01:34and then hopefully just an undervalued number.
01:36The one kind of thing I've been focusing on that luckily,
01:39knock on wood, we're two for three so far this week.
01:41But historically, we do see zone-heavy defenses usually go hand-to-hand
01:46with running backs getting more targets
01:48and then wide receivers getting less,
01:49which makes sense when you think about football.
01:51Linebackers dropping back in the zone.
01:53They're trying to take away the intermediate stuff
01:54and they rally up to the checkdowns.
01:56So the three plays I had this week were Ramondre Stevenson
01:59over his reception number.
02:01Christian McCaffrey as well.
02:02Took until about three minutes left when we got there eventually.
02:05And then DeAndre Swift is the third qualifier,
02:07where, again, it's a lead back with pass-catching ability,
02:10also facing a defense that had the same coordinator as last year
02:13when they ranked inside the top 10 in zone defense played.
02:16So only two and a half over-under for DeAndre Swift.
02:20I think it's a nice plus 140 number.
02:22And my man's just got that nice little contract extension.
02:24So that will be the prop I'm riding with the most here come Sunday.
02:28Would you want to be on, DJ Moore, in this game?
02:30We opened our show today really talking about this.
02:33I mean, it's a new head coach.
02:35He's the play caller.
02:36Moore is the shiny new guy.
02:39I noticed on Wednesday night, I thought New England waited.
02:42I mean, they didn't wait super long,
02:44but I think it wasn't until their third series,
02:46third possession that they targeted A.J. Brown,
02:49which I would have thought, like, let's make these guys –
02:51they're down guys in the secondary Seattle.
02:54Let's make them, you know, defend A.J. Brown.
02:57It's going to be a long day, that kind of thing.
02:59I feel similarly about DJ Moore, who I know is not A.J. Brown,
03:03but for the Bills, he's the big, new, shiny, expensive acquisition.
03:07And, you know, they've had a tough time moving the ball at all
03:10against this Houston defense the last two years
03:12when they've been down there.
03:13So, I feel like Moore should be a guy that they would want to feature.
03:19Yeah, you'd like to think so.
03:21I'm just not so sure Derek Stingley's going to be out of his hip pocket
03:24long enough for that to really be happening.
03:26So, there's one man on this planet who can give Derek Stingley problems,
03:29and that's Kayshawn Booty, his new teammate.
03:31So, I will say, you know, DJ Moore, he's so good after the catch.
03:35We obviously saw that in the brief preseason moment
03:38where he took that crosser for a good 25, 30 yards,
03:41calling on the safety and everything out there.
03:42So, I would like to think that Joe Brady can take some of those short,
03:46quick hitting, you know, screen source of action
03:48that they usually say for Khalil Shakur
03:50and just get DJ involved early
03:52because that is the one thing where I agree with you 100%.
03:55You're trying to work someone in on the new offense.
03:57You know, number one wide receiver.
03:59Everyone likes to call them divas and this and that,
04:00but, you know, they want the football.
04:02They want to be able to contribute to the team, you know,
04:04for better and for worse.
04:04So, just, again, designing a few early touches,
04:07just getting the ball in the guy's hands,
04:08maybe a reverse here or there.
04:09Look, DJ Moore over these last couple of years,
04:12and we have Ben Johnson actually lining up as a running back
04:15for portions of the game.
04:16That's how good this dude is with the ball in his hands.
04:18So, again, definitely one of those players
04:19where you should be able to skim up with football.
04:22Would love to see that, particularly two guys
04:24with Ty Johnson perhaps on the wrong side of questionable.
04:27Right.
04:28With Ian Harditz.
04:29I mean, Allen and Cook, of course.
04:32I wonder how close Kincaid is for you to a must start.
04:34You know, you and I play in some of these leagues
04:37where there are tournaments and drafts bleed into today and tomorrow
04:41where you can actually move guys out of your lineup
04:44that played the last two nights.
04:46And in terms of tight end, if that's your, you know, your style,
04:50Kittle didn't get there.
04:51Terrence Ferguson was a hot item, didn't catch a pass.
04:54I know.
04:55Really, the other game either, my guy Raritan,
04:58that was a nice little prop bet hit,
04:59one catch for two yards and a touchdown.
05:02I mean, and the Bowers injury, Ian, like that's a crusher.
05:05So, Kincaid gets pretty close to somebody you probably have to start
05:08and maybe want to.
05:10Yeah, he's my tight end 13 or 14 or so,
05:12so I do have guys like Dallas Goddard, Jake Ferguson,
05:15even Michael Mayer ahead of him
05:17because I'm just wondering if the Bills are finally going to unleash the dude.
05:19It's been great to hear that his knee apparently is back to full health.
05:23But, again, there's only so much you can do if he is going to be out there
05:26for more of a 50%, 60% route rate
05:28as opposed to that 75%, 80% number that we usually see go hand-in-hand
05:32with the most productive tight ends in the league.
05:34So, again, nothing against Kincaid.
05:36His numbers last year for efficiency-wise, I mean, it was a breakout year.
05:40If you look at wide receivers and tight ends,
05:42I mean, only JSN and Puka Nakua average more yards per hour run than this dude.
05:46So, can't say enough good things about the talent.
05:48And, look, from the Bills' perspective as well,
05:50because I know us fancy nerds can be annoying like,
05:53oh, yeah, play this guy more.
05:54He's on my team and everything.
05:55Look, the Bills' offense has been a juggernaut for the past six years.
05:58They've used him in a part-time role because he's been banged up.
06:01I'm not faulting them by any stretch of the imagination.
06:03I'm just hoping that after having a full summer of health
06:06where we've heard Joe Brady and Bean talk about the fact
06:09that they want to play him more,
06:11that we can actually go ahead and see that come to fruition.
06:13But similar to the George Kittle situation,
06:16and also Tucker Kraft to a lesser extent,
06:18I just really want to see that one week of usage evidence
06:21before we get too far in over our heels.
06:23But I will say, man, the four tight ends
06:25where we're just, like, ranking them where we are this week,
06:28but if we get that really good data point here in Week 1
06:31who could skyrocket up the ranks,
06:33it's Dalton Kincaid, it's Terrence Ferguson,
06:35who we unfortunately saw that not work out for,
06:37Arande Gaston, and maybe even old man Darren Waller.
06:41Those are the four guys that I'm really keeping an eye on
06:43because if we get that full-time role,
06:44they're going to be on the cover of all those Waverwire articles coming today.
06:48Waller in Carolina.
06:50I like it.
06:51With Ian Harditz.
06:54So let's go two nights back to New England.
06:56A.J. Brown, IR.
06:58I mean, Henderson comes back.
07:01Dobbs was a bagel.
07:02What does, and May had a rough night,
07:05or at least a rough fourth quarter.
07:07Both of those teams, if we can just do that game here, Ian,
07:10what changes for you based on what you saw Wednesday?
07:14Yeah, just unfortunate for the A.J.B.
07:16because he looked like his usual baller self when he was out there, man.
07:20Should have had a 38-yard touchdown, pretty bad underthrow from Drake May.
07:23He got to DPI, obviously then got injured,
07:25and he's going to be out for a good bit.
07:27So disappointing from Romeo Dobbs,
07:29and unfortunately it just seems like they're going to be rotating
07:31these remaining four, maybe even five wide receivers,
07:34all out of what we saw a lot of Stephon Diggs and company last year.
07:37So in this offense, I'm still going back to the wall with Drake May,
07:40even for as bad as that fourth quarter was.
07:42He still ran for nearly 50 yards in fantasy land.
07:45Having that rushing floor really can't make up
07:47for any real-life hiccups going on.
07:49And then Armandre Stevenson, as much as, again, no rushing room,
07:53shout out to PFF's Nathan Yonke for the wild stat,
07:55where I believe he only had one yard before contact on the entire game,
08:00and then he had about 50 after.
08:01So really wasn't much running room.
08:03But, hey, when you're playing this 80% snap,
08:05every down workhorse role,
08:07you tend to get enough volume to be just fine and fancy with that anyway.
08:10So cool with May, cool with Mondre.
08:12Everyone else just kind of seems like an annoying situation for now.
08:16And then meanwhile in Seattle, good to see my guy Drew Locke
08:19earn himself, what, three, four years worth of backup quarterback money
08:23as long as you can kind of, yeah,
08:24as long as you can show up that one time you're asked to every so often,
08:28you'll be fine.
08:28So that was fun.
08:30And honestly, it did bring back the memories of the other game he had,
08:33what, two years ago against the Eagles,
08:35where this is a dude, obviously has his limitations,
08:38but for better or worse,
08:39he's going to tuck that rock to his number one receiver,
08:41you know, as often as he can.
08:42So I do think for JSN,
08:44even if maybe we're ranking a more wide receiver eight
08:46instead of wide receiver three without Sam Dahl in the lineup,
08:50it is encouraging to, again,
08:51see Locke go out there and do his thing.
08:53The more annoying part is just to Darian Price, guys,
08:55because George Helani is someone that's taking passing downs.
08:58And then even though it was a limited sample,
09:00we saw Emmanuel Wilson, the former Packers running back,
09:03actually working a lot more near the goal line.
09:05So Price might be in that annoying between the 20s lead back role where,
09:10okay, if he can break a long run, we'll be fine,
09:12but we're losing the fantasy friendly pass down work and the goal line work.
09:15That's more of a borderline RB student,
09:17someone who needs to be in lineups moving forward.
09:19I forgot about you and Drew Locke.
09:21That goes back a few years.
09:22I forgot about that.
09:23My guy.
09:24Your guy.
09:25San Francisco, Kalen Black, Ian, like, I mean,
09:29he cut into McCaffrey pretty good,
09:31but maybe there were cramps and it's Australia.
09:33But is he somebody, you can't do it now probably,
09:36but is he somebody that you'd like to pick,
09:39you'd recommend picking up next week, Niners?
09:42Yeah, I don't want to hurt myself patting my own back,
09:44but he was on kind of short list coming into this week of just,
09:47hey, you know, looking at the guys sub 20% owned in ESPN Yahoo.
09:52He stuck out.
09:52So we had a little bit of question because Jordan James was banged up
09:55throughout training camp, but wasn't even active in week one.
09:58And to Kalen's credit, he looked good.
10:00I don't think we're really going to be getting flex, you know,
10:03standalone value here or anything.
10:05But again,
10:05one injury to CMC away from obviously being a weekly fantasy starter.
10:09I just wouldn't go to concern,
10:12like hype of the concerns too much with CMC.
10:15We did have the cramps, as you mentioned.
10:17And at the end of the day, we're still talking about eight targets,
10:1918 combined carries and targets.
10:21And it's an offense that looks fantastic guys against the Rams defense that we
10:25all thought was going to be the class of the NFL this year.
10:28So touchdowns will come.
10:30And it's also just a situation where last season,
10:32even if Christian McCaffrey did not have a single rush attempt,
10:35he would have still scored more PPR points from just receiving than what
10:39Saquon Barkley had total.
10:40So there's just only so many running backs who even can dream of catching 100
10:44passes in the season.
10:45And CMC is one of them.
10:47Also, the big concern coming in this year was, oh my gosh,
10:50coming off of 450 touches.
10:52How is he even going to look out there?
10:54He looked good.
10:556.8 yards for carry.
10:56Again,
10:57against the Rams defense that we were expecting to be much,
10:59much better.
10:59So to me,
11:00it's like,
11:01yeah,
11:01it would have been cooler,
11:02I guess,
11:02to get a few more touches and maybe get a touchdown.
11:05It obviously wasn't the exact output we're looking for,
11:07but maybe you want to move CMC from RV three to RV five or six,
11:11but you should still be pretty happy.
11:12You have that dude on your fantasy squad.
11:14Bulldog though.
11:15The strip club did not work out last night.
11:18Oh,
11:19that that's not an ankle injury,
11:21right?
11:22I mean,
11:22I feel like I watched it six times on Twitter,
11:24Ian,
11:24and I never saw his ankle do anything that would look like an ankle injury.
11:30I contrary to popular belief,
11:32I'm not a doctor.
11:33So I'm going to go ahead and take their word for it for right now and say
11:36it's the ankle.
11:37But I just hope the dude gets,
11:38you know,
11:39gets okay soon.
11:40He was out there pretty much every single route before the injury.
11:43Obviously it wasn't getting the ball though.
11:44I would caution.
11:45That's the one,
11:46you know,
11:46sort of issue with scribbling,
11:48obviously balling out in the preseason,
11:50number 33 overall pick for a reason.
11:52I'm sure we'll have a bright future,
11:53but when each of George Kittle,
11:56Mike Evans,
11:57Christian McCaffrey,
11:57even Devo Sandler look pretty good out there.
12:00When all those guys are healthy,
12:01there's only one football to go around.
12:03It's going to be tough to trust this dude.
12:05I think anything more than a wide receiver,
12:06he was four or five once he's healthy and ready to go.
12:08Got a last minute sneaky name for a lineups for our listeners this week.
12:14Yeah.
12:15Long time division rival.
12:17You guys are going to hate this dude eventually,
12:19but Chris Bell from the Miami Dolphins,
12:21making his NFL debut.
12:22Someone where again,
12:23if you are in these deeper leagues,
12:24I do think he's a good bench stash.
12:26Honestly,
12:27guys,
12:27if you have,
12:28you know,
12:28a few minutes this weekend,
12:29you're like me,
12:30you like to just put on some old,
12:31you know,
12:31player highlights and,
12:32you know,
12:32waste the night away.
12:34Chris Bell,
12:34Louisville versus Miami last year.
12:36I swear this dude will give you AJ Brown vibes.
12:39So six,
12:40two,
12:41two 20 reported for three speed that you see on film.
12:44He's on a Dolphins team that loves to stay in August.
12:47Oh,
12:47we're going to run the ball.
12:48We're going to do this and that a lot easier to stay in August.
12:50And when you're down three touchdowns at halftime,
12:52every single game.
12:53So if Lake Willis can just be average and not horrible,
12:57Chris Bell,
12:57boy,
12:58the pup list,
12:58he's already starting going to be out there.
13:00I really think this dude could be a sleeper worth betting on.
13:03So Chris Bell,
13:04guys,
13:04remember the name.
13:05Love that.
13:05We talked about him before the draft.
13:07He had a,
13:07what an ACL in December.
13:09I was a fan of the idea of myself,
13:12like take a,
13:13you know,
13:13take a shot.
13:14You shouldn't have to pay full price.
13:15And the Dolphins didn't.
13:16Now I hope Miami doesn't hit on it.
13:19Yeah.
13:19I think we all thought he was going to start.
13:20He didn't start the season on pop or IR.
13:22He just managed to actually be one of the guys truly ahead of schedule.
13:25So how about those peptides,
13:26right?
13:27I mean,
13:28injuries aren't real anymore.
13:29Unless they,
13:30unless they happen in the last 48 hours.
13:32Cause then it's all over the place.
13:34Thank you,
13:34Ian.
13:34Ian Hartitz of Roto-Wire.
13:35We'll talk again soon.
13:36Appreciate you fellas.
13:38Okay.
13:38Every Friday.
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