- 2 months ago
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00:00Could have bled a lot more clock and given themselves a much better chance of winning.
00:06But they didn't know that.
00:08But they missed a kick anyway, right?
00:10What just happened there?
00:11What did we just listen to?
00:13The possession before the possession before that, maybe.
00:16Oh, I see.
00:17I didn't watch it.
00:18Okay, all right.
00:21With us now on the...
00:22I got the impression they lost on a missed field goal, and I'm not sure what the...
00:26But maybe they...
00:27Whatever.
00:28All right.
00:28There's something there.
00:29I didn't see Paganetti on that.
00:31Sam will know.
00:31With us now on the Western Hotline is Sam Paniatovich.
00:34You know his work from Fox Chicago, Bet Sweats, Chicken Dinner, Bars maybe.
00:41You've seen Sam.
00:41He's been with us a long time.
00:43WGR.
00:43We'll be like right after those other jobs.
00:46We got to get in your Twitter bio, Sam.
00:48That's what we need.
00:49Regular contributor.
00:50Yeah.
00:51What do you think of that?
00:52Would you consider doing that?
00:55I could be convinced, yes.
00:57What's in it for me, though?
00:58I don't know.
00:58Nothing.
00:59Clout.
01:00Right.
01:01Obvious clout.
01:02People will ask you, what does that mean?
01:04You know, I go on with those guys once a week for 10 minutes.
01:06Or 20.
01:07You know, Sam.
01:08I want to minimize your impact, Sam.
01:10I ask this as a, if I need to say this, as a compliment to you.
01:14Might you have been invested last night in Buffalo, Albany?
01:20No, the only bet I made last night was Colorado plus six and a half.
01:24I did not take, by the way, I did not take UMass plus 29 against Rutgers.
01:29What a bet that would have been.
01:31Right.
01:31Rutgers pays them a million and a half, and then they come in and whoop.
01:36And then, did you guys see after the game, Rutgers loses as like a 29-point favorite,
01:42and then they do a firework show after the game.
01:44Oh, I love that.
01:46Got to do it.
01:46I love.
01:47We said we would.
01:48I love that Rutgers is back.
01:50There was a Friday night last football season where I will, this is changing because my
01:56wife's schedule changed, but like oftentimes I'd get out of here on a Friday and go to
02:00the bar and just have a couple of beers and, you know, wait for some people I know to get
02:04there and sort of hang out.
02:06But I'm there early, and I'm looking at my phone.
02:09I'm texting with Sam.
02:10This is not to call you out.
02:12You're like, Rutgers, get on Rutgers with me or something.
02:14I did.
02:15Not last night.
02:16No, not last night.
02:16Not last night.
02:17But it totally went sideways.
02:19I don't remember what happened, but it was not, it ended up not being a good pick.
02:23I just saw, the only thing I saw from that game was the handshake.
02:26And it was like, oh, right, Greg Sciano.
02:29Yes, this is great watching him lose.
02:31I love watching him.
02:33Certain coaches, you just love to watch them lose.
02:34It's the number one appeal of college football to me is hating the coaches.
02:39Bulldog, that was an Iowa-Rutgers game.
02:41I'll never forget that.
02:42And that was funny because, you know, last year, and we'll get into a couple of bets I like,
02:47obviously, for this weekend, I think we had a pretty good run last year.
02:50And I'd usually just give you guys like one bet.
02:53And I think at the time, we were like six and two or five and two.
02:57And, you know, might have been feeling a little confident and texted Bulldog a little extra.
03:01Like, I really like Rutgers tonight.
03:02You know, I was feeling it.
03:04And then, like, Bulldog will never text after a win or a loss.
03:08But that one, I feel like I pushed the envelope a little far.
03:11And, yeah, Iowa cracked Rutgers.
03:14But there was like a pick six in the game.
03:16Yeah.
03:16You know, you hate when that happens.
03:17I think it went sideways almost right away.
03:20I feel like maybe the pick six was right away.
03:22It was just like, what are we doing here?
03:23What are we doing here?
03:24But, hey, listen, I'm teasing you all in good fun.
03:27You gave our audience last week North Carolina.
03:31Yeah, that was nice.
03:33I didn't think they were going to win the game.
03:35But, look, this is the lesson early in these seasons.
03:38You know, a lot of teams are priced in Vegas on what they did last season.
03:42And TCU's offense was really good last year.
03:45The problem is their quarterback is gone.
03:47He transferred to Indiana.
03:48Josh Hoover, Cignetti pulled him away.
03:51And, you know, they went.
03:52TCU thought that they could just go into Harvard and transfer their quarterback in.
03:56And it's just not the same thing.
03:57Right.
03:58So, I don't know if you guys watched that.
04:00Gabe, it was a total rock fight, which is exactly what Belichick wants to do.
04:03The final score was like 15 to 13 or something like that.
04:06And I remember we talked about that on Friday when, ironically enough, I was at a bar this time around.
04:12And I said nine is too many.
04:13Now, I didn't think they would win.
04:15But a lot of these big numbers, you know, in week number one, it's not really a true testament of
04:21what these teams are.
04:22It's more what they were.
04:23And you can find some really nice numbers in week one and even in a week two.
04:28Do you think that translates to the NFL?
04:32Or is there just too much information, too much stability relative to college football?
04:37Like, I've got, maybe you do too, survivor pools.
04:41And yesterday, Bulldog and I were talking about the Dolphins-Raiders game.
04:45Like, I just can't.
04:46One HN run, one good pass, and Miami wins.
04:51Like, it's just, I mean, there are too many games that are more than like three and a half on
04:55Sunday, week one, next week.
04:56But do you think, is it, does the same principle apply to the pros?
05:01It's a good question.
05:02The problem is the rosters are so much smaller, and there's just really not that much turnover.
05:07Now, you know, if a star defensive end isn't there anymore, that's a big deal.
05:11Left tackle is worth a ton.
05:12And obviously, if you're going to a new quarterback, that changes a ton, especially if the quarterback is a rookie.
05:19You know, like when the Raiders go to Fernando Mendoza, now you have a rookie quarterback, a hobbled running back,
05:25and a terrible offensive line.
05:26Like, that's not great, but also, like, it wasn't great last year.
05:30So, you don't really, you don't see a lot of changes.
05:32Like, the biggest example in recent memory is when, you know, Brady goes to the Bucs.
05:37You know, that was a team that was like 80-1 to win the Super Bowl, and then Brady goes
05:41there, and oh my God, now they're 10-1.
05:43You know, like, that's a drastic change.
05:45But you don't tend to see it that much in the NFL year-to-year.
05:48In college, though, with NIL, guys, I mean, you know, some of these teams, I was doing a preview the
05:52other day of a Memphis game.
05:54Memphis has 75 new players this year.
05:57Like, how is that even possible?
05:59Wow.
06:00You know, there's 90 guys on a team, and 75 of their guys are new.
06:04So, in college, like I said, I think it's very difficult for these bookmakers to go year-to-year because
06:09it used to be linear.
06:11You know, a quarterback would go there, he'd stay a couple years, he'd start as a junior and a senior,
06:15and then he'd maybe go to the NFL.
06:17Now, you've got a quarterback who could be on three teams in three years.
06:20It's just crazy.
06:21Speaking of Brady, I was already, you know, planning to mention this, but I love that point about the unknown
06:28quarterback.
06:29Like, we'll see if Mendoza, whenever it happens, doesn't walk on the field and make a huge difference.
06:33Brady, I was in Las Vegas for his first start in 2001.
06:38And they were 0-2, New England.
06:41They had Peyton Manning and the Colts.
06:44And nobody liked them.
06:45Like, there was just no reason to think that that was going to be an upgrade from Bledsoe.
06:49And they blew out the Colts.
06:50They won by, like, 30 points his first game.
06:52Like, okay, this one, maybe we could have known this.
06:56Maybe we could have known this.
06:57Looking back, maybe, wow, okay, they knew what they were doing there.
07:01Yeah, and I wonder how the lines moved after that.
07:03Like, right away, I wonder if he just got, like, that kind of respect or not.
07:06But they won the Super Bowl that year.
07:09So, hopefully, he came around to that.
07:10It probably took a while, though, because I feel like, I don't know what betting lines were doing at that
07:15time.
07:16But I know how it sounded on the radio.
07:20And it was, like, waiting for him to turn into a pumpkin for maybe even that whole year.
07:25Like, it was into the next year, maybe the year after.
07:28Yes.
07:28There's a playoff game in Pittsburgh, I remember, him throwing it all over them and going, like.
07:32They cheated.
07:33Like, okay, I don't think this is just, like, he's got a great coach.
07:36I think maybe this guy's pretty good.
07:38Yeah.
07:38How far do you go back, Sam?
07:40That's 2001.
07:41You probably remember that.
07:42You're old enough to remember that stuff.
07:44I actually, let's see.
07:46In that Super Bowl, I'm not good with Super Bowl numbers, but I know it was the 2001 season.
07:52Because they had, like, the 9-11, you know, remembrance before the game.
07:56It was the Patriots and the Rams.
07:58And I was in seventh grade.
08:02And I bet my buddy, because I found out that the point spread was 14.
08:06Like, the Rams were a 14-point favorite in that game.
08:09And I told my fellow seventh-grade friend that I will take the points and didn't need them
08:15because they won the game outright.
08:16But, I mean, that was, guys, that's one of the biggest upsets in the history of the NFL playoffs.
08:21Sure.
08:21The Patriots were a 14-point dog in that game and won it outright.
08:25Yeah.
08:25Listen, this is embarrassing.
08:27I really didn't understand how point spreads worked until I started working with Mike.
08:32Oh, boy.
08:33Like, in 2003.
08:34You're in seventh grade and going, give me the points.
08:36Yeah, I love it.
08:39You were born to do what you do.
08:42Thank you, Mike.
08:43Is there anything – what jumps out at you, college?
08:46Is there a better – is it a better schedule this weekend?
08:48I mean, there's more games, obviously.
08:50But what stands out?
08:52Who do you like?
08:52Not so much what are the best match-ups, but, like, what do you like betting-wise?
08:57In week one, which is weird because we just played a whole weekend of games, right?
09:01Like, this is week one now.
09:02I'll never understand that.
09:03But the two that I really like are – number one is Houston.
09:08Houston's playing Oregon State.
09:10And crazily enough, Houston's a 20-and-a-half-point favorite.
09:14But Houston is one of 12 teams in the country that brings back the following four things.
09:19Starting head coach – or not starting head coach.
09:21Starting quarterback.
09:22Head coach OCDC.
09:24Only 12 teams do that.
09:26And Houston's one of them.
09:28So, that's a big deal in this landscape of college football.
09:31I also talked to a former bookmaker who now bets professionally, and he said his number on the game is
09:3527.
09:37So, when he said that, I had already liked Houston.
09:40I made a nice bet on Houston, minus 20-and-a-half.
09:43And then the second game, there's a weather game.
09:46There's a weather game in Hawaii, guys.
09:48I was reading a bunch of reports this morning about this Hurricane Lowell.
09:52And you hate to handicap hurricanes, but, I mean, at the end of the day, this number was 58-and
09:57-a-half two days ago.
09:58On bare bets, I gave it out at 57.
10:01Now it's down to 56.
10:03If we see footage of this, you know, stadium tomorrow, and the wind is ripping through,
10:09and the flags are just going crazy, and there's a monsoon, I mean, how much lower could it go?
10:1453, 52-and-a-half?
10:16So, I would bet this right now, because this is how it works.
10:20People will flip on the game, and see the pregame, and see the storms, and go, oh, I like the
10:25under.
10:26But this could move three more points.
10:28So, I like Houston, minus 20-and-a-half, and the UNLV-Hawaii game, under 56-and-a-half right
10:34now.
10:36UNLV-Hawaii.
10:37We are so back.
10:38Sam Pantiotovic with us.
10:39All the way back.
10:40I texted Sam the other day about a possible Offensive Player of the Year idea in the NFL,
10:48Jameson Williams of the Lions.
10:51But what I don't, I mean, it's a big long shot bet.
10:55What I don't like about it, of course, is, like, there are two other, if not three,
11:02really good offensive players, weapons on the Lions.
11:05Like, he would have to come in way above St. Brown and Gibbs, I think, to win.
11:10But you said you were open to it, right?
11:14I'm open to anything at the right price.
11:16I mean, do I think it's going to happen?
11:17No.
11:18But then you throw the amount out there and what the payout would be, and it's a different conversation.
11:23Like, I don't hate anybody taking a shot, you know, betting a little to win a lot.
11:28Like, that's where I live.
11:31I look at, like, I'm not answering the question the way you asked it, but, like, on the Bears,
11:36for example, like, they've got a lot of really good players.
11:39And the one that Ben Johnson likes the most is Luther Burden.
11:43Like, he has been gushing about this kid all offseason and through training camp and heading
11:48into the regular season.
11:49That guy's 101 right now.
11:52And it's like, oh, okay.
11:53Like, if Ben really likes him and keeps going out of his way to say that Luther Burden's
11:59going to be that guy this year, maybe two plus two is four.
12:03But then you look around that Bears roster, and Caleb is obviously really, really good.
12:07And they have a couple other weapons, and they like Colson Loveland a lot.
12:10So, you know, Burden's got the upside.
12:12But if the coach is saying all the right things and the player has the pedigree and the talent,
12:17and then you look at the 101, you're like, all right, he might not be the best player,
12:21but there's a path here.
12:22So, whether it's Jamison Williams or whether it's Matthew Golden with the Packers or Luther
12:27Burden with the Bears, like, there are some really good players at some really big prices,
12:31no doubt.
12:32Williams is 200-1, and the Burden example, Burden does not have that sort of, you know,
12:39clutter, so to speak, in his way.
12:41You mentioned, you know, Loveland, but Swift is hurt now maybe too, right?
12:44Sam, what's the latest on Swift?
12:46You're in Chicago.
12:46He had cramps.
12:47He had cramps yesterday.
12:49Mononga's banged up, though.
12:51So, I've always been in the Doomsday guy, personally.
12:54I think he's really, really good.
12:55I think he gets a lot of flack for no reason.
12:57But, look, I mean, the reality is you're going to have to outlast a lot of really good players.
13:02I mean, Jameer Gibbs is the odds-on favorite right now, you know, to be the offensive player
13:07of the year.
13:07But if you're going to hit one of these guys at triple digits, you're going to need a lot
13:11of production, obviously, but you're going to need other guys that have down years, and
13:15you're going to need some injury luck, too.
13:16Right.
13:19Bears and Carolina in week one.
13:21Bulldogs are already on it.
13:23He was on Chicago, like, two months ago for our pick segment next week.
13:27Wow.
13:29Anything else, Sam?
13:30What are you thinking about that we haven't talked about?
13:31White Sox?
13:32Baseball?
13:33Well, I'm actually, I'm walking in the Sox right now.
13:36It is Magic Wand Night in the spirit of Harry Potter.
13:40Yes.
13:40They're giving away 20,000 Magic Wands.
13:43I believe we have a pretty good chance.
13:45What kind of projectile potential do these wands have, Sam?
13:49I just can't wait to see the clientele.
13:51It's 90 degrees outside Bulldog.
13:53You're going to see all these people in wool outfits.
13:55It's going to be crazy.
13:56But think about this.
13:58The White Sox are still going to make the playoffs, and Mike's going to cash that 10-1
14:03ticket, and all the audience that hopped in on 66 and a half over.
14:07White Sox hitting currently on 73 wins.
14:10I think we're going to be okay, guys.
14:11Has won already.
14:13Sneaky Joe was excited to tell me about that at that golf outing we had last week.
14:16He's like, I got there on the White Sox.
14:18I heard.
14:18All right.
14:20You know what's funny?
14:20You bring that up?
14:21I haven't heard from Sneaky Joe since that hit, by the way.
14:24Interesting.
14:25Well, he's on paternity leave at the moment, so maybe that's why.
14:28Oh.
14:28Well, all it takes is a quick login to the messages part of the phone and just
14:32hey, thanks for the White Sox.
14:34I'm with you on that.
14:36At least you can do.
14:36When they started one in five, he texted me, I don't know about these White Sox.
14:42Oh.
14:43That's not good.
14:44That's not cool.
14:45Definitely send that message, Joe, if you're out there listening right now.
14:48Yeah.
14:49When I was teasing you last year about that Rutgers game, it was more funny to me that
14:53it was going sideways.
14:54I wasn't like, oh, this is terrible.
14:56You're a jerk.
14:57It was just like, wow, good bet.
14:59Can't win them all.
15:00Right.
15:00Just wow, good bet.
15:02Nice.
15:03All right, Sam.
15:04Thanks for this.
15:04Enjoy your Labor Day weekend.
15:05We'll talk next week, week one.
15:08All right, you guys too.
15:09And yeah, again, get that Hawaii under.