- 5 weeks ago
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. The heatwave may be easing over land but is it in the sea? Marine heatwaves are causing changes to our ecosystems and also our weather patterns. Alex Deakin talks, in depth, to expert Dr Ségolène Berthou about the impacts our warming seas are having.
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NewsTranscript
00:00The heatwave is fading over land, but it continues in the oceans. Yes, we are diving deep this week
00:08into the sea. We're going to be talking about marine heatwaves, why they're important and
00:15what the impacts can be. Also, did you wake up to an orangey sky this morning? Well, there's a reason
00:21for that. And we'll be looking at just how sunny July has been. Welcome along to this week's Met
00:27Office Deep Dive. We do this every Tuesday, half an hour or so of delving into a particular subject
00:34of meteorology. If you're a Met head or know someone who is, then share the love. Let everyone
00:39know that we do this Met Office Deep Dive, as I say, every Tuesday. Ask us anything you like,
00:45put any comments you like in the chats. We do try and read as many as possible. And if you
00:50haven't
00:50already, you want to subscribe to our channel. Right. Who's coming for a dip? I don't like to
00:58swim alone. So earlier on, I spoke to an expert. I'm joined now by Dr. Ségolène Berthoud. Ségolène,
01:06thank you for being here. Thank you for joining us on the Deep Dive. Do you want to explain what
01:10your role is here at the Met Office, first of all? Yes. So I'm an air-sea interaction specialist.
01:14My team develops a couple system between the atmosphere, the ocean, the waves, and also
01:19the land and the rivers. And so we bring all the forecasting systems together in one research
01:25system. So it's all about how the sea and the air interact with each other. I mean, historically,
01:29we've not really done a lot of that linking. It's kind of been kept apart almost, haven't
01:32they, the seas and the atmosphere. But obviously, there's a very strong link between the two.
01:36Yes, indeed. And our marine forecast now sends its sea surface temperature into our weather forecast,
01:42for example, which is a big improvement from a fixed sea surface temperature throughout
01:46the forecast. So big developments, big changes. And we've seen how important that is. And
01:52we've seen, particularly over recent years, how much warmer our seas have become. So that's
01:58what we're really talking about today, just the seas around the UK and the sea surface temperatures
02:03that we've been seeing. Let's start with what's going on currently. This is the map around
02:09the UK showing the sea surface temperature anomaly and how warmer than the average it
02:15is. And it's been like that for quite some time. What is the definition? Let's start with,
02:22I guess, the definition of what a marine heat wave is, because we know what the land heat wave
02:27is. We've seen, you know, three big heat waves this year across land through the UK. We have
02:33to have three days over a specific temperature. Marine heat waves measured slightly differently.
02:40Yeah, so it's five days. Five days for a star, yeah. The definition is above the 90th percentile
02:46of a 30-year distribution. So we've got to be, if you're above that threshold, which should happen
02:55about 10% of the time, we're in marine heat wave condition. And if you take that anomaly and double
03:00it,
03:00triple it, quadruple it, then you're in strong, severe or extreme conditions.
03:04Extreme. So they're the four different categories of marine heat wave. And this would be, this was an
03:10example of what a heat wave would look like. It would, it would classically, it wouldn't be in a
03:14marine heat wave until you got beyond that 90th percentile. And then it would go through various
03:18different stages, perhaps. And then once it's come back down here, assuming that time period is longer
03:23than five days, and you'd class that as a marine heat wave. But extreme ones are pretty rare. I mean,
03:29that's pretty extreme by the definition. So that is what a marine heat wave is, but it's not based
03:36on specific temperatures. And that's because the temperature varies quite a bit in and around the
03:41UK. Obviously, it would be hard to put a number on that. So it's based on that 30-year average.
03:46Anything in the top 10% would be classed as a heat wave, but getting more extreme, depending on how
03:51much above the average we are looking at. Okay, so that is what a marine heat wave is. And how
03:58long
03:58has the UK been experiencing marine heat waves? So last year, we had about three quarters of the year
04:05in marine heat wave conditions. So when you remember, it should be 10%. It should be 10%. It was 75%.
04:10Yeah, even slightly more than 75%. So 2025 was exceptional. We've had exceptional marine
04:18heat waves in 2022, three, a bit less in four. 2025 has been exceptional. And then 2026 is again,
04:27yeah. Let's look at where we're at now. This is the current situation around the UK.
04:35And what are the implications? Why do we care? What does it matter? It just makes it warmer if
04:40you're going in the sea, right? So what are the implications? So yes, indeed it does. So you've
04:47got warmer seas that has implications for weather, and we'll talk later about it, but also has implications
04:52for ecosystems. We've had, as you're showing here, we've had actually very few cold spells. The last cold
05:02spell we had was 2018. The last time the sea was below average temperature around the UK? Below the
05:07tenth percentile of the distribution was in 2018, associated with the beasts from the east. Right.
05:16Wow, that was the last time. Okay. And that means that actually all the winters since then have been
05:22above average. And that means that we haven't reached colder sea surface temperatures. And that means the
05:29the species like the octopus, which their northern limits is more usually southern Brittany, they've
05:35been able to migrate north. And it's the first year now in 2026 that we've seen them reproduce in UK
05:42waters. And they are in large numbers now in the south of the UK, southwest of the UK. So there
05:48are
05:48implications, particularly to ecosystems around when we have these marine heat waves and when the sea
05:54surface temperatures are significantly above the average. There's also implications to the weather.
06:00Again, we'll go into more details, but this was quite an interesting, from the heat wave in June,
06:06the peak of the heat wave in June, what are we looking at here? So here we're looking at the
06:11sea
06:11breezes and how they affect the warmer. So over the sea it's all red because we've run the forecast
06:19twice, one with the marine heat wave with the actual conditions and once we've removed the marine heat
06:23wave. And we're comparing the two simulations. So simulations are substantially warmer in the air
06:29temperature over the sea. The anomalies are above 1.5 degrees and then they're carried up into the land
06:37by the sea breezes. And you can see that sea breeze front really nicely here. It's really nice,
06:43isn't it? It's really striking. That's where the land warms up, the sea doesn't warm up as fast and you
06:48get that circulation. So it's drawing in and you get that where they clash, which often then can
06:54generate clouds and sometimes showers. But this is... So this is the afternoon and this is when,
07:00this is the cooler phases of the land heat wave. So we had very bad land heat wave in the
07:06southwest of
07:07the UK where actually the sea breeze are struggling to develop here because the high pressure is sitting on
07:12there. But where the sea breeze developed then the air is, the UK is cooling down by the sea breeze,
07:20but it's cooling less than it should because the sea is warmer. So you don't get the same cooling effect.
07:25I mean you still get a breeze off the sea but you don't get the same cooling effect because the
07:28sea is
07:28that much warmer than average. Really interesting stuff just to see that. And this is where we're at
07:36this year as a whole. So we're going data on the bottom. This is this year's sea surface temperatures
07:42around the whole of the UK. And this is the 30-year average, the dark grey section there. So we
07:53see
07:53that variation. Interesting that the sea surface temperature bottom out kind of the middle of March
07:59and peak late August into September. So there's that lag with the sea. So you always get that that
08:05kind of variation through the years. And each of these squiggly lines are every year for the past
08:10since 82, is it? Yes. Yeah. And then this is the current year and anything red shaded in there is
08:17above that 10th percentile, above the 90th percentile. So we can see quite clearly here those three
08:24peaks that we've seen. So heat wave one end of May across the land but also in the sea and
08:29then
08:29another one in June and then the current one or one that's kind of ending now certainly over land but
08:36still with that still with that heat. So we can we can quite clearly see those three peaks but also
08:40even through the through the springtime temperatures were significantly above average and still with
08:45that still with that heat wave. So really quite remarkable to see that that ongoing situation that
08:52that we that we have at the moment. Let's look a little bit about
08:59the seas around the UK because they're quite interesting. This was quite interesting. I did
09:04this experiment on on Aidan and Alex Berkow yesterday. I asked them how many Eiffel Towers you could fit
09:10into the depth of the North Sea at the at its deepest and they I think one of them guessed
09:15about 26
09:16and the other one guessed about 20 but it's actually remarkably shallow the North Sea isn't it which
09:21is which is really significant for things that we're seeing. Yes indeed yeah. So what have we got here?
09:27Yeah so this is the bathymetry around the UK. What does yeah but what does bathymetry mean? It's the depth
09:32of the ocean. The depth of the ocean. Where does that come from?
09:34Is that some kind of Latin term? I've never seen that but bathymetry that's a good one for a quiz.
09:41The bathymetry of the UK.
09:42So um yeah that's that's showing and not everything in grey colour here is shallower than 250 meters and the
09:50Eiffel Tower is 300 meter high so
09:53if you dip the Eiffel Tower anywhere here it will stick out. You would still see the top of the
09:57Eiffel Tower pretty
09:58much anywhere within the North Sea. It does get a bit deeper as you get to work right towards Norway
10:02doesn't
10:02the trench there. Yeah yeah but most places in and around the the UK the seas are not as deep
10:08as the
10:09Eiffel Tower is tall and really quite shallow so that point there is represented here. Yeah that's the
10:16English Channel so that's the Dover Strait here where the Eurotunnel goes through and and it's only
10:21about 30 meters deep here. I mean the Dogger Bank is even shallower than this and then you've got the
10:27North
10:27Sea here that goes a bit for um deeper. So kind of a midpoint if you like in the North
10:33Sea is around
10:34about a third well not even a third is it it's less than a third of of the full depth
10:39of the Eiffel Tower
10:40that is it's really quite remarkable but it has an impact right it's really important what you know
10:45that being so shallow is really important for what we see weather wise but also particularly with with
10:50marine heat and retention of the temperature. Yeah exactly so in um yeah around the UK basically we
10:59also the the bit that are shallower here are insulated by a current that goes around that shelf
11:06and what the life of water in the Northeast Atlantic is relatively independent from what happens on the
11:12shelf. Yeah let's show you that because that's that's kind of displayed here right so what are we
11:16looking at here? Yeah so here we we're looking at um surface currents over a 25 hour period and this
11:23is the currents that are driven by the tides so around the UK when the tides uh come up at
11:29a 12.4
11:32frequency hour frequency um they drive um big blobs of of um high and low sea level which propagate
11:41around the UK and this means that the water has to move around the UK coastline is quite constrained
11:47between all the land masses and every six hours the the current direction changes um and that that
11:55that current is much stronger than what happens in the Northeast Atlantic. Basically looking at the speed
12:00of the the sea is moving out here so there's really fast moving seas in and around this path exactly
12:05but
12:05it moves one direction and then comes back so it kind of um is in and out is moving and
12:10um that that
12:11means that all the seas around here they're shallow they have strong currents they actually are fully
12:16mixed throughout their depth so we can't develop a warm layer on the surface in these seas so these
12:22seas just very close to the UK take longer to warm and and longer to cool so they they store
12:28that heat
12:29um and it also means so that um the heat that is trapped in the northwest European shelf um struggles
12:37to escape from this shelf right because there's no depth there's no depth into which the the heat can
12:46sink and therefore these areas especially the northern southern North Sea has been warming
12:52uh at twice the rate uh so that's about 0.5 0.6 degrees per decade whereas the whole average
13:00is 0.3
13:01degree per decade so um these regions do warm have warmed in the last 40 years faster than other regions
13:09because they the heat is trapped there you can't move you can't so basically you when you heat it to
13:15heat
13:15the sea you know the sun beats down and obviously but that only heats the top it's not and you
13:21get some
13:21circulation so some of it will go down unlike the land where it can't go down obviously so you have
13:26that circulation so that's why it's very a different mechanism but the speed of which everything's
13:31moving is really important to how that heat gets transferred around so you get these big variations
13:36because there's very little movement there in in the North Sea and as we've seen it's also very shallow
13:42whereas around here it's very shallow but you're getting that you're getting that movement so there's
13:45different mechanisms creating different temperature profiles yes at any one time and it varies
13:51quite a lot and you've got these little that's quite interesting you're pointing out those little
13:54eddies earlier in in in in the ocean but you don't get those in the North Sea uh because you
13:59haven't
13:59got the depth yes so there's all these very subtle shifts and all these very subtle things that we
14:04need to be aware of people just think oh i'm going to see they may wonder whether the tide's in
14:08or out
14:08but there's actually an awful lot going on and the way that it gets heated in the way it's really
14:13fascinating the way the heat gets gets transferred and moved around yeah and when it's high tide in
14:18cold wall it's low tide yeah that's another thing people don't realize that do they just think oh
14:22it's high tide it must be everywhere around this the differences that you see see similar maps to
14:27this with the way the tides change in and out around the uk and it's all very different all very
14:31complicated all thanks to the moon of course um so yeah really interesting the way that that
14:36everything shifts around and can change um let's look now at historically what we've seen in the past
14:45and go back to 2023 we'll talk we'll talk about um storm barbette in a minute because that's what your
14:50paper is all about that's that's out today we'll have more on that second but before we get to the
14:55the uh heat in the sea in the autumn time 2023 was remarkable for this bull so this is the
15:03same
15:03graph we saw earlier for this year but this is for 2023 so we've got the whole year uh and
15:08this was
15:09particularly strong marine heat wave so these are the surface sea surface temperatures around the uk
15:13and we had a huge bulge there in june into july that was one of the biggest heat waves we've
15:18seen
15:19marine heat waves we've seen around the uk indeed yeah and what we've seen from that actually um we can
15:26see the impacts from that generated we've talked about the sea breezes but actually they can then
15:33generate um increase the the shower activity and that's another study that's been that's been
15:40done how the marine heat wave enhanced heavy showers during the summer so this is from june 2023
15:48and it shows how the storms were enhanced if we actually zoom in on the radar first of all so
15:53this
15:53is the radar from a specific day what are we looking at here so we're seeing um a band of
15:59rain here
16:00uh is centered in the middle of the southwest peninsula which corresponds to um that sea breeze
16:05convergence uh sea breeze coming from the north so south converging triggering ascent and then triggering
16:11convection and we see also some bands of rain here in wales in the midlands um and some convection going
16:17on this was a day in the summer where the heat was causing showers but yeah that classic where the
16:24winds
16:24are combining they're converging pushing the air can't go down so it goes up creates showers but
16:30what you've done some or there's been some research then was it you involved in this or was it this
16:34is
16:34your paper as well um and what are we so what are we looking at here what have you compared
16:39so we run
16:40the weather forecast um as it is set up now with the sea surface temperature coming from the marine forecast
16:46so which is a quite accurate and this is showing you the probability of rainfall um across an ensemble
16:55because new showers are a bit chaotic so we we we get um these bands here that weld captured by
17:03the
17:03model where we had the bands in the reality and then we rerun the same forecast but removing the marine
17:10heat wave anomaly right and we run the forecast again and what you see is that the probability of
17:16rainfall really decreases dramatically uh without the marine heat wave um so we can quite confidently
17:23say that this convection that we had that day was probably triggered and enhanced by the marine heat
17:29wave um and that sea breeze dynamics um yeah so proof there this is this is what this is the
17:37forecast
17:37and that's pretty much what happened you took out the marine heat wave and the signal was much less
17:42for that for that convection so from this it's you can deduce that the convection was heavier uh more
17:48intense than the storms from as a result as a direct result of the marine heat wave so it's another
17:54one
17:54of those impacts we've talked about the ecosystem but along with the sea breeze it's not not cooling down
17:59the uk as much uh and this is another one of those impacts that you can directly see as a
18:05result of the
18:06sea being hotter than than it should be um really interesting stuff about what happened in the early
18:13part of of june that year but then something more significant one and maybe not more significant but
18:18something very significant happened later on and that's what your paper is about today the papers
18:23published today all about uh this which is um storm babette october this is from the 17th i think the
18:3317th of october um so this is the storm uh we named it a couple of days ahead of time
18:40there's uh spain
18:42and portugal there's the alberia peninsula the uk is here and this is the storm as it approached the uk
18:47came up it's coming up it's bringing up a lot of warmth bringing up a lot of moisture because it's
18:53crossing the bay of biscay and uh coming up from the south it brought warmth it brought moisture and it
18:58brought a lot of heavy rain and uh caused quite widespread problems across eastern scotland in
19:04particular but also other parts of the uk were were pretty badly affected we were obviously making
19:09videos about it uh aiden highlighting that risk area and this is what the warnings board looked like um
19:15thursday to saturday there's a lot of warnings in place from this storm wind was a bit of an impact
19:21but it was more the rainfall wasn't it and and well the wind had an impact but more because of
19:27the
19:27direction rather than the intensity of it so we had a lot of warnings including red uh rainfall warnings
19:33we were expecting 150 perhaps 200 millimeters of rain over the hills of eastern scotland that's
19:40pretty much what we saw uh but that was all enhanced by the fact that the sea was warmer than
19:47average so
19:48what have we got here these these are in your paper today aren't they so what are we looking at
19:51here
19:52yes so this paper is in collaboration with the university of reading uh phd student pierre lee goswamy
19:56is a lead author um and this is uh the map average over the four days uh three days sorry
20:03of storm babet
20:05which shows in general low pressure as you've described here we also had a higher pressure over
20:10scandinavia and that jet here is squeezed between that lower pressure which couldn't progress because of the
20:15high pressure and um yeah so we've got that jet that is low level jet strongly flowing from denmark
20:24into scotland and you did say and it's right that it did bring some warm warm and moist air but
20:30and the first day of the storm but on the second and third day that air came from scandinavia was
20:36very
20:36cold very dry and it arrived on top of this uh very warm sea so um the sea was about
20:44one degree warmer
20:45than usual which can't seem not much uh but actually that heat is not just at the top here we've
20:52seen
20:52it being throughout the depth oh should we go back to the yeah let's go back to this one because
20:57this
20:57you can talk about this this is really interesting so this is again back to 2023 the sea surface
21:02temperatures that was the one we talked about earlier with the incredible heat in june but this
21:06this is the build up to to babette so babette happens here what what happened in september yeah so babette
21:13killed the marine heat wave more or less that's interesting and that's because it mixed it up mixes it
21:18up and it took a lot of heat and evaporation out of it and the the most of the cooling
21:23just happened by
21:24uh evaporation and right and heat transfer yeah um and what happened here is that we just had and again
21:31anomalously anticyclinic conditions very sunny uh very weak winds and that anomaly built it's quite
21:38strong really strong but it built at the surface and then as you go into um september october where
21:45you've got a little bit more mixing going on a bit more winds that anomaly is sinking throughout depth
21:50and it's it's not disappearing from the system the heat is just being transferred across the whole column
21:57um and it's a very important preconditioning for babette because what the storm the storm didn't
22:02have to do any mixing it just uh was all all mixed throughout the column and it just took the
22:10heat
22:10and in the evaporation out of that so high pressure domination a lot of sun beating down the sea surface
22:16temperature sea surface temperature peaked yes but then this isn't necessarily that's not the sea cooling
22:21down it's just that it mixing through so the whole of the north sea which as we've seen isn't very
22:26deep
22:26got warm so there's so much energy just all trapped in not just in the surface but doing this so
22:32when
22:32babette came tried to mix it up it was just there was still a lot of energy there there was
22:36a lot of
22:36energy there because of that okay that's really really set the scene for what babette happened there's
22:44that storm coming up uh this will then show the uh let's go through this again and then we had
22:52that
22:52easterly wind that persisted for a number of days unusual wind direction in the first place drawing
22:59in all that warmth so this is the sea surface temperatures being above average but as we've
23:04seen the depth of the north sea was unusually high so right the way through all bringing that energy
23:10and the result uh was pretty remarkable in terms of uh the impacts that we saw
23:18what are we looking at here so here we what we've taken is we've taken our coupled system air atmosphere
23:26land with rivers uh ocean and waves all coupling coupled together and we've run the forecast
23:32and the forecast is is in red here and this is for the river south-esque and flow which both
23:38of them
23:38burst their banks and this is the surge part you know of the the sea level and this is the
23:45wave power
23:46so the um the coastal damages brought by storm babette were very quite incredible um the equivalent of
23:53five years of erosion happened on the east coast of scotland and five years worth of erosion happened
23:59just in three days from the storm yes and it's combination of very high river flows and a long
24:06lasting this is you know one day of wave power uh which is really high and so what we've done
24:12is that we
24:13we rerun that system uh but instead of initializing our ocean in 2023 we initialized it one year that
24:21didn't have a marine heat wave right in so we rerun the storm as if it was the ocean conditions
24:27of 2020
24:28and then we've looked at yeah this um this blue is without the marine heat wave this red is with
24:33it
24:33and we see that across all the hazards we've increased between nine percent no we increase the wave power
24:40by nine percent increase of river flows by 12 to 18 percent and the surge about about 20 percent
24:48um and these are you know several factors for that obviously we know that's a quite a well-known
24:55phenomena that as we discussed when the sea is warmer it brings more moisture into the atmosphere
25:01and it rains more and therefore the river flows are enhanced um but this can be non-linear the soil
25:07moisture was already quite high so the river flow is enhanced more than the rainfall and then we have
25:13the coastal impacts which are linked with um we had that very cold uh low level jet that went over
25:21the
25:21north the the really warm north sea and that brings a lot of convection in the boundary layer and the
25:28winds
25:28are really high aloft are brought to the surface and as the sea is warmer that boundary layer is higher
25:36there's more wind brought to the surface and the waves integrate how much more wind you have
25:42the surge also integrates how much more water you push towards the coastline and this led to
25:48you know small changes in the sea small changes in the atmosphere but then integrating this into bigger
25:55you know double digit hazard big impact changes so even though those winds after the storm were effectively cold
26:02because they were coming over that incredibly warm sea like you said it created a bigger circulation
26:06you've got more convection more uplift it then generates a bigger self-perpetuating almost from
26:13coming back again stronger winds all adds to bigger waves and and the the blue here is without the heat
26:20wave so you've been able to do the research run the run the computer models without the heat wave to
26:25make
26:25that comparison and every all the aspects is showing that increase uh of what between yeah anything
26:30between nine and twenty percent depending on obviously more more river flow increases more flooding
26:36and i've seen more more wave power um as we saw increased the increased the um the the coastal erosion
26:44five years worth of uh of damage in just three days remarkable there's lots more uh in the book try
26:50put the link to the paper actually in the um in the uh in the description but there's more on
26:55the
26:55met office website today because that paper is fresh out who is it with the games with reading university
27:00yeah excellent so that's absolutely fascinating we've seen that why marine heat waves need to be
27:06monitored why they're so important because the impacts they can have yeah really fascinating
27:10particularity of the of the um northwest shelf is also that lack of depth so when that storm comes if
27:17it
27:17had come over the atlantic it would have mixed some colder water in and and kind of get rid of
27:24the
27:24anomaly but here there is no nowhere where this anomaly can go apart from into the storm into the
27:29storm and that because of the track and the way that easterly uh wave was generated the easterly winds
27:34were generated really fascinating so it doesn't happen with every storm that we see coming across the
27:38atlantic far from it those particularities for for barbet but why uh really important to be able to
27:44understand that the differences that those marine heat waves make or the temperatures in the sea
27:49really fascinating stuff um so one more question i guess then what what does the future hold we
27:54know that uh the climate is warming we know that we're expecting temperatures to rise as well
28:00hopefully this will uh play we can show another graph and it seems to have frozen on me
28:07yeah never mind and we're back it's uh working again now so just to end on what are we looking
28:14at
28:14here future projections yeah so then the red line here is that 2023 marine heat wave that we've seen
28:22was very intense um but when you put it in the climate projections and this is the projection is
28:28probably one of the worst case scenarios we can have um but it's middle of the century um this anomaly
28:34instead of being that big anomaly could just be a small warm anomaly almost near the average okay
28:40so um gradually that that baseline that average will shift up and um you know if you take uh a
28:47fixed
28:47baseline it means more marine heatwave days um as we're seeing already so that's that they're the
28:53projections there in in the yellow gold and you actually see a bigger gap through the peak so the
28:58summer peak is is is the the the difference in the future is larger than the differences through
29:05the winter and the spring yes indeed and this is because um the seas as we discussed they some parts
29:11of the seas around the uk stratify so you've got that warmer layer of of water that happens in the
29:16summer and therefore it's easier to warm so um you know more surface forcing means warmer in the summer
29:24whereas in the winter you've got to warm the whole depth which takes you know longer longer yeah and
29:29also it shifts a bit towards the autumn oh yeah you can yeah stratification in these projections
29:35actually lengthens by about a month so we have a month of or more of stratified seas with that
29:42warmer layer and potentially the implication i guess on our store our storm season you know traditionally
29:48october november we often start to see those intense lows so that has an impact perhaps on those with
29:53warmer seas as we've seen really fascinating stuff um segaline thank you so much for uh for being on
30:00this week's uh deep dive we'll have you back again but uh yeah fascinating paper and uh thank you for
30:05explaining marine heat waves to us thank you absolutely fascinating to chat to segaline earlier on
30:12right quick look at the weather not going to go into too much detail obviously be plenty more in the
30:1910 day trends tomorrow with alex burkehill but we are still pretty warm across the south at the moment
30:24but signs of things cooling off a little bit as we go over the next few days so that by
30:28saturday
30:29still some warmth across the southeast but we are seeing temperatures dipping away a lot of people
30:34after some rain any sign of that well we are seeing a shift in the jet stream it's been pushing
30:41up to the north allowing this chunky area of high pressure but if we go through the next few days
30:46what happens the jet stream just gets a little bit about it and starts to drift south as a result
30:52the high pressure gets squished to the south and we start to see weather fronts low pressure systems
30:56influencing our weather a little bit initially some showery rain over scokland and northern ireland
31:02as we go into the weekends well that jet is just trickling a little further south and generating a
31:09little bit more in the way of cloud and showery rain coming in now nothing for gardeners growers to get
31:13too
31:14excited about but we are in for a more changeable outlook as we head through the weekend into the
31:20early part of next week and yes most of us will see some rain most of us won't see very
31:25much but at
31:26least there will be a little bit coming in as these weather fronts move through and the jet stream has
31:32sunk further south high pressure and too far away however so as i said more on that in the 10
31:38day trend
31:39tomorrow but a couple of other things i wanted to draw your attention to that we've seen
31:43a really quite interesting satellite image from tuesday morning you can see the high pressures
31:48out here so there's quite a lot of cloud trapped under the high and around it the breeze coming in
31:53from the north so you can see all the cloud filtering its way in but just in here notice a
31:59hazier scene so
32:00you may well have woken up this morning over parts of wales and the midlands to quite a hazy murky
32:07almost
32:08orangey sky with the sun rising here because of wildfire smoke it's quite high up so it's not being
32:16generated across the uk this is likely to have come from somewhere across north america a lot of wildfire
32:21still burning there it's harder to track it down if you go back through trajectory hard to actually
32:26pinpoint where it came from but it looks like it's come from north america somewhere over the recent
32:33weeks and yeah quite a bit of it trapped there across parts of the uk this morning so you may
32:38well
32:39have noticed a slightly more orangey hue to the sun speaking of sun we have seen a lot of it
32:47in july
32:47yeah no joke alex uh this is the latest sunshine sunshine uh up to the 20th of july so for
32:56the
32:56first two-thirds of the month normally by this stage we have expected to see about 65 percent so that
33:04would be the average most places are already above that in fact everywhere is above that 65 percent except
33:11perhaps uh shetland uh orkney there is uh perhaps in that 30 to 50 percent bracket no the 50 to
33:1770
33:18percent bracket most of the eastern side of scotland northeast england in the 70 to 90 percent so
33:23even that is above the average but all these yellow areas have already seen their july average of
33:31sunshine still with a third to go and pockets of wales there north devon somerset have seen between 130
33:39and 150 percent of their july sunshine already we've had more sunshine than we had in the whole
33:44of july last year in fact this is the the sunniest july since 2021 uh aiden did some statistical analysis
33:52on this so yeah really quite interesting how much sunshine we've already seen so far this july it's
33:58been a remarkable summer and we'll have plenty more on the summer stats no doubt as we go through but
34:04yeah just highlighting there how sunny july has been right that is pretty much it from me for this
34:11week's met office deep dive again big thank you to seglen for uh being on let us know in the
34:17comments
34:18if you like that kind of stuff if you like it when we get the experts in let us know
34:22in the comments
34:22if you've got any other questions uh about the weather or about climate we do try and go through them
34:27sometimes we answer them on the weather studio live on friday that'll be me and alex burkel i think this
34:33friday so that's the weather studio live at 12 15. make sure you subscribe to our youtube channel and
34:39then you won't miss one and if you can hit that thumbs up button for me uh that would be
34:44uh brilliant
34:44thank you very much for watching i'll see you again soon
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