- 1 day ago
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. Whilst much of this autumn has been quite quiet, things have now taken a change. As the strengthening jet stream runs across the UK we have some stormy weather to come. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
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You may also enjoy:
– 10 Day trend forecast https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZDSHKqsgszMnk9d5IEF5UH
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
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NewsTranscript
00:00The first name storm of the season, Storm Austin, is on its way, but that's not the whole story for
00:06this week's weather.
00:07Hello, thank you very much for joining me for this week's Deep Dive.
00:11I'm Alex Burkill, presenter and meteorologist, coming to you as we do every Tuesday from our headquarters here in Exeter.
00:16Make sure you hit that like button, make sure you're subscribed, and do get those comments coming in.
00:22I will be back again on the Weather Studio Live with Honour on Friday,
00:26so any questions that come in through this Deep Dive, I will be looking at them and answering some on
00:31Friday.
00:32Make sure you also share this video with anyone who you think might be interested in anything that I talk
00:37about,
00:37about the UK's weather, about the global weather, anything at all.
00:41Now, before I go on, I did do a video earlier on today, a special on Storm Austin,
00:46so I'm not going to go into a huge amount of detail about Austin because I covered most things in
00:51that video,
00:51so if you've not already watched it and want to know more about that, then do check that out now.
00:56OK, maybe you're back.
00:58OK, great, let's crack on, and first of all, let's look at what's going on with the weather across the
01:03UK at the moment.
01:04And if I put the Jetstream on, but I'll leave the fronts on because it's a bit handier,
01:09the Jetstream is quite active out in the Atlantic at the moment, but it's dipping down and then going to
01:13the north,
01:14just to the west of the UK, but it is helping drive a frontal system that's coming across.
01:18Now, if you did watch that video that I did about Storm Austin, you'd have heard me mention this feature
01:25that's coming through across parts of the southwest
01:27because it is going to bring some wet and windy weather through the end of the day Tuesday and more
01:32so into Wednesday.
01:33So if I put the winds, actually, let's get rid of the fronts to make it a little bit clearer,
01:38let's zoom in.
01:40And a couple of things, you can see, yes, there's a band of relatively heavy rain coming through,
01:44and the winds on the leading edge of it are coming up from the south.
01:48But behind it, as that front pushes through, we have some strong winds coming down from the northwest.
01:54And I mentioned in that video that this is a slightly more unusual wind direction for this part of the
02:00country,
02:01and, well, for many parts of the country, really.
02:03As a result, the impacts are greater because the trees, etc., aren't used to seeing such strong winds from this
02:11direction.
02:11In terms of how strong the winds are going to be, well, let's get our gust graphic up
02:15and let's go to through Wednesday.
02:18And if we just run that through, and you can see around, yeah, the tip of Wales
02:23and also northern coastal parts of Devon and Cornwall, those winds coming down from the northwest.
02:28We're looking at gusts in excess of 50 miles per hour,
02:31so nowhere near as strong as the in excess of 70 miles per hour that we're expecting with Storm Austin.
02:37But nonetheless, because of the direction that the winds are coming from, we could see some impacts.
02:41So don't be surprised if there's some disruption.
02:42First thing on Wednesday morning, because of that, and also, you know, there's also this wet weather that's coming through
02:50as well.
02:50So it will be wet and windy for a time, so that's going to make it quite unpleasant.
02:54And like I say, there could be some issues as a result.
02:57But as we run through Wednesday, that system clears away towards the east.
03:02And then there is a brief ridge of high pressure.
03:05And so something drier, some places will see some bright weather.
03:08I mean, this is eight o'clock, so it won't be bright by then.
03:11But yeah, most people, most places in the west will see some brightness for a time.
03:15And then there's more wet weather coming in later on.
03:18But it's much later, and more so as we go through deeper Thursday, where we start to see this feature.
03:24It's this.
03:25That is Storm Austin.
03:27Let's go back to the pressure sequence quickly just to highlight that.
03:31And if I zoom out, and you can see Austin here, a deep area of low pressure, deepening rapidly as
03:37it comes towards the UK.
03:39As I mentioned in the other video, it crosses the jet.
03:42It ends in that left jet exit region, and it goes through something called explosive cyclogenesis.
03:47And I can show you that because I didn't have time to cover this in the video earlier.
03:53But I do have a couple of charts that I wanted to show from ECMWF.
03:57Now, this one here is looking at 7 p.m. on Thursday.
04:01And all the different dots are the different members showing where they expect the center of the low to be.
04:07But the color of them is important because it shows how the pressure for the low pressure center has changed
04:14in the preceding 24 hours.
04:17And the bright pinks indicating where the pressure has dropped by at least 24 hectopascals in 24 hours.
04:24And so that makes it a weather bomb, explosive cyclogenesis.
04:28And it's when it goes through this rapid deepening, that's when we get our most intense features.
04:33So in this period, running up to 7 o'clock Thursday evening, that's when it's rapidly deepening as it comes
04:40towards the UK.
04:42If we go ahead 12 hours, and this time we're looking at 7 a.m. on Friday morning, same chart,
04:47but the colors have changed.
04:49The light pinks are indicating the pressure's dropped by more than 12 hours.
04:54And the yellows and the, or the orangey yellows and the lighter yellows, they're indicating that it's dropped by more
05:01than 6 or more than 1 hectopascals, depending on the color.
05:07And so what we're seeing is the rate of it deepening is slowing down as it comes towards the UK.
05:12And in fact, I mean, worth bearing in mind, this is looking at that 24-hour period from 7 a
05:17.m. on Thursday to 7 a.m. on Friday.
05:19So actually, a lot of the deepening that's covered with these colors, saying that it's deepened by at least 12
05:25hectopascals, probably is coming in that first 12-hour period of this 24-hour slot.
05:31So between 7 a.m. on Thursday and 7 p.m. on Thursday.
05:38So it is deepening rapidly as it comes towards the UK.
05:42It is going to be a weather bomb, but just as it gets closer towards us, it will have reached
05:47maturity.
05:48It will have reached its period of max deepening.
05:50And so it is still going to be a deep area of low pressure, but fortunately, it's not still strengthening
05:59as it comes across the UK.
06:01Now, how deep a low pressure? Well, I can show you that in a different way.
06:05So here I have our ECMWF, oh, that's fine.
06:09If I put ECMWF forecast tracks, and if I show you the different, why is it doing that?
06:16Here we go.
06:17Oh, that's because I don't need to go to the right day, that's why.
06:22So this I have here is Friday, and this is the low pressure.
06:27Now, I've put on the control member from ECMWF, and notice the control is a bit further south than the
06:32Met Office model.
06:33And it's also quite an outlier compared to all the other members.
06:38So all these different blue lines, the colours indicate how low they have the pressure, and also their position.
06:44Most of them are a bit further north compared to the control members.
06:47That's interesting that that member zero, if you will, is much further south.
06:52But if we run it through, and coming across the UK, most of them are in this region around 980,
07:00or between 980 and 970.
07:03Some of the darker blues showing that the pressure pattern is between 970 and 980.
07:07So that's what we're expecting when it comes to the feature that is Storm Austin.
07:13Quite deep, pretty deep for this part of the country.
07:16Bit of uncertainty with north or south track, but nonetheless, it's going to bring some wet and some windy weather
07:22to many plants.
07:23Like I said, I have a whole video looking at the impacts and showing the warning that's out currently across
07:28parts of the south-southwest of the UK.
07:30But if we dart along a couple of days, then there's this other deep area of low pressure that's coming
07:35in, this time to the northwest.
07:37And you'll no doubt notice the change in the colours.
07:41Now, this one, there's a bigger spread, perhaps, in the track that this takes, but that's not surprising when you
07:47take into account that we're looking a few days further ahead.
07:51But what you can see is the change in colours.
07:53This is highlighting, I mean, some of them have the pressure coming close to the UK of between 940 and
07:59950.
07:59Most of them are in the 950 to 970 bracket.
08:02And so a deeper area of low pressure coming towards the UK through this weekend compared to Storm Austin.
08:09Now, it's affecting different parts of the country, parts, you know, towards Scotland, Northern Ireland, Western areas in particular.
08:16That's where we're likely to see the strongest winds and the heaviest rain in association with that.
08:21But, you know, those areas are perhaps better equipped and more used to seeing these sorts of winds.
08:28But nonetheless, it is going to be a very windy period coming through.
08:33And so that's something that we need to bear in mind as well.
08:36So currently, we only have the warning in the southwest for Thursday night into Friday's feature as Storm Austin approaches.
08:43But definitely, especially if you're in Scotland, Northern Ireland, north of England, definitely need to be looking ahead to this
08:51weekend already because there's a potential for more stormy, unsettled weather.
08:55I mean, stormy weather's a bit like buses, isn't it?
08:58You wait a long time for one and then two come along perhaps at the same time.
09:05Then, what else did I want to talk about?
09:07I think that's enough for the UK weather for now.
09:10But I wanted to look at something more globally because there's a fair few things going on.
09:16At the moment, there's some heavy rain that's across some southern parts of Europe.
09:21Strong gusty winds, thundery rain.
09:25We've had Storm Adam, who was named by AMET, the Spanish MET Service, because it brought some intense thundery downpours
09:32across eastern parts of Spain, the Balearics.
09:34And now it's tracking eastwards.
09:36It's affecting some eastern parts of France, northern parts of Italy, the Alps.
09:41Across the Balkans, we're going to see heavy rain, several hundred millimetres of rain.
09:46And over the Alps, above two and a half kilometres, say, there could be some significant snow.
09:51And that's going to lead to some travel disruption as well.
09:54So, heavy, thundery rain and some mountain snow as well, causing some problems over some southern parts of Europe.
10:00So, that's something to be aware of.
10:02Maybe if you're looking for some mid-autumn sunshine somewhere, there's some pretty unsettled weather there.
10:09So, not great news from that point of view.
10:12And then another feature that I wanted to talk about is what's happening all the way the other side of
10:18the world.
10:18And it's a very strong typhoon, Champi.
10:22Now, that has, over the weekend, it passed just to the south of Guam.
10:27Some models had it coming across Guam.
10:29But fortunately, it tracked just to the south.
10:31But nonetheless, brought some significant impacts and brought some heavy rain.
10:37And now it's tracking further westwards.
10:39If we just run this through, I'll try not to sing as I do, but you can see it's likely
10:45to head towards Taiwan later in the week.
10:49And then perhaps track northwards and could just about go towards the southern Raikyu Islands of Japan.
11:00There's a bit of a more recent model runs have actually had it going a bit north, tracking northwards before
11:05it reaches Taiwan.
11:06But at the moment, our model and the general guidance is for it to come towards Taiwan.
11:12And there's the potential that through the next 24 hours or so, it could strengthen to a violent typhoon.
11:19So at the moment, it's a very strong typhoon, sustained winds of in excess of 115 miles per hour.
11:26But there's the potential that it could strengthen to a violent typhoon with sustained winds in excess of 125 miles
11:34per hour.
11:34So some really strong winds.
11:36Heavy rain also, of course, for concern.
11:39Over the Taiwan mountain chain, we could see maybe seven to 900 millimeters of rain in just a few days.
11:47And so that's going to cause some problems as well.
11:50So, yeah, currently very strong typhoon, Champi, is causing a bit of headache.
11:55And whilst we're in this neck of the woods, I just wanted to mention something that was pointed out to
11:59me.
12:00I've talked about it before in Weather Studio Lives.
12:02But in Singapore at the moment, air quality is really poor.
12:06And that's actually an effect from the ongoing El Nino that's happening at the moment.
12:12It's because across parts of Malaysia, Singapore, nearby areas, it's been so very dry that that's led to an increased
12:19number of wildfires.
12:20And that's increased the amount of smoke that's in the air.
12:24And because it's been so dry, it's not washed anything out.
12:27And so that's led to really, really poor air quality in some parts, particularly in Singapore.
12:32So I just wanted to touch on that.
12:35And then one final thing, if I can find it, is this feature here.
12:43Tropical Storm Agueda.
12:45It's the first name storm of the South Indian Ocean season.
12:48It's currently bringing some pretty unsettled weather to the Seychelles.
12:52Heavy rain.
12:52It is going to clear away.
12:53So then we're going to see fewer impacts affecting the Seychelles through the next couple of days.
12:58Oh, I'm already over Wednesday at the moment.
13:00I was in the wrong place.
13:01But nonetheless, yes, some pretty wet weather for the Seychelles at the moment.
13:04And then it's clearing away towards the west through the next couple of days.
13:08So less impactful for the Seychelles compared to what it's had.
13:11But yeah, the first name storm for the South Indian Ocean season.
13:15And so there's a fair few things going on globally.
13:18Some pretty unsettled weather, like I say, Storm Adam in the Mediterranean and southern parts of Europe.
13:23And then a very strong storm Typhoon, sorry, very strong Typhoon Champi heading towards Taiwan.
13:30And as I've mentioned at the start, we also have Storm Austin, which is heading towards the UK.
13:38And it's our first named storm of the season.
13:41And it's going to bring some particularly wet and windy weather, well, wet weather across many parts of the UK.
13:46The strongest winds likely across parts of the southwest through the early hours of Friday morning and through towards lunchtime
13:53area.
13:53But we then need to take a close look and keep an eye out for that second deep air of
14:00low pressure that's tracking somewhere close to the northwest of the UK as we go through this weekend.
14:06Remember, I did a longer video about Storm Austin.
14:09So do check that out if you need to know more about that feature that's coming through.
14:13That's available on our YouTube channel.
14:14But thank you so much for watching this slightly shorter deep dive.
14:17If you do have any comments, any questions, do get them in and I'll try and answer some of them
14:22either later today or in the Weather Studio Live on Friday when I'll be back with Honor.
14:26And do hit that like button, that share button and make sure you're subscribed as well.
14:30Whatever you're up to, I do hope you have a great day.
14:32And remember, between now and the windier weather, the very windy weather that's coming through later this week, you do
14:37have time to take precautionary measures.
14:39Maybe strap down your trampoline, fix any fences, that kind of thing.
14:43Have a great day. I'll see you again soon. Bye bye.