00:00One of my favorite sports movies, Jerry Maguire, Tom Cruise, there's a scene in the movie where he's leaving his
00:07job and he's branching out on his own.
00:09You remember that scene?
00:10I do.
00:11And he picks up the goldfish and he says, who's coming with me?
00:14And the only being that was going with him was the goldfish until Renee Zellweger said, I'm interested in you
00:21romantically and that's why I'm going to come as well.
00:25When it comes to Tarek Skubal, I am Tom Cruise, but even my wife is not coming with me on
00:33this one, I don't think.
00:34And that's okay.
00:36I'm cool with being the minority like Green Day.
00:39My take on this Skubal thing is, and this noise that has come out about Tarek Skubal the last 24
00:44hours, hey, the Tigers may not trade him.
00:46They may not trade him.
00:47We've got the words of Buster Olney over here saying that, frankly, you know what, man, I don't even necessarily
00:56believe the Tigers should trade him.
01:22Okay, so Skubal ticked everybody off over the weekend, me included.
01:25I want to be here for this season.
01:27No, man, you don't get to dictate those terms, all right?
01:30That's not your prerogative.
01:32But Rico, I'm going to ask you for two minutes here.
01:34Two minutes.
01:35Because you know as well as I do, the compensatory pick's not great, but you're making the pros and cons
01:41list.
01:41I got a 20% to 30% chance to keep Tarek Skubal after the season.
01:46Historically, that's what the numbers are.
01:47I have the best chance to do something this year with Tarek Skubal.
01:51If I lose Skubal, I get a compensatory pick.
01:55There's no good players that go in the compensatory picks, right?
01:58Wait, boop, boop, boop.
02:00How about Aaron Judge?
02:01Compensatory pick.
02:03How about Corey Seager?
02:04Compensatory pick.
02:05How about Noah Syndergaard, Craig Biggio?
02:07Compensatory pick.
02:08Do you know why he hasn't already been traded?
02:12Because Scott Harris would get killed if you saw the lack of a haul that's being offered for him right
02:20now.
02:21And I'm going to illustrate that in a minute.
02:23It's not just he gives us the best chance this year.
02:25It's that if I trade Tarek Skubal for this, I would get absolutely slaughtered, beheaded.
02:35Let me give you an example.
02:36Three executives spoke to Robert Murray on fan side.
02:40Three different baseball executives.
02:42The first said you'd get a top 100 prospect, top 15 prospect.
02:46Let's speak of that in terms that we all understand in our own prospects.
02:50So in exchange for Tarek Skubal, executive number one, door number one, you would be receiving Lorenzo, Andrew Sears, and
02:59Jesus Pinto.
03:00No, thank you.
03:01The second executive said two top 10 prospects within an organization.
03:06So you'd be getting Josue Braseno and Chris Rodriguez.
03:10I'm sorry, come again?
03:11The third executive gave the best offer, said a top 50 prospect and a top 100 prospect.
03:17Well, here's the problem.
03:19Top 100 prospects have a failure rate of 69%.
03:22So you're getting Bryce Rainier and Max Anderson.
03:27I'm looking at every single one of those deals.
03:30And I'm saying, you know what, man?
03:32I got a chance to keep them potentially.
03:35I got the best chance to do something this year.
03:37I know that.
03:39And if I lose them, is the difference between those hauls and a compensatory pick really all that?
03:47I think you're cherry picking the compensatory picks.
03:50You're finding the best of the best and saying, oh, well, you could go out and get an Aaron Judge
03:55or you can go out and get a Kevin McGonigal.
03:58That's not how it works.
04:00That's like saying, well, you could just draft a quarterback in the sixth round and he'll become Tom Brady.
04:05You don't get to do that.
04:07The reason why you know those names, it's because it's rare.
04:10Because most of your comp picks don't work out.
04:13It's a pick at the end of the first round.
04:15I'm just saying, they don't work out.
04:17First round picks work out.
04:18Second round picks work out.
04:20You know as well, do you think Scott Harris has confidence in his drafting ability?
04:23He does.
04:24He believes in himself.
04:26I've yet to see his picks really come up and do something.
04:28McGonigal, I have numbers to back you up there.
04:31Since 2012, picks in the 28 to 31 range have failed to produce a single player who reached 10 career
04:40wins above replacement.
04:42It is very rare that you're going to get that player at the compensatory slot.
04:50Isn't happening.
04:51And if McGonigal, if he believed in McGonigal so much, I'll still say, Scott, why didn't you bring him up
04:57last year in September so he could have been on the playoff roster?
05:01I agree with you there.
05:02But McGonigal was selected where?
05:0537th.
05:05What I'm saying is this.
05:08If school wanted to be here, it's real simple.
05:12Contract is sitting right here.
05:14Your agent has it.
05:15Pick up the phone and make a deal.
05:18He wants a ridiculous amount of money.
05:20I applaud the Tigers.
05:22I'm not signing you for some ridiculous deal.
05:25We can go short term.
05:27Now, if you want to tell me, hey, he's going to get a four year, $160 million deal.
05:34OK, you'll get 40 a year, but only for four years.
05:38I'm not signing a 10 year deal with you.
05:40I'm not going to sit here and handcuff myself with another Miguel Cabrera deal.
05:47We're not doing that.
05:49You want to be here?
05:51Then show you want to be here.
05:53OK, take the tender off your phone.
05:55OK, and let's be in a relationship.
05:59But until then, no, I'm going to see what I can get for you because it beats sitting there with
06:08nothing.
06:08Let's be real.
06:09But I just showed you.
06:10Chances are none of them are going to work out.
06:13But at least I get more bites at the apple that way.
06:17Well, no, to to Rico's point just then, it's like you could show us the quote trades that are being
06:23floated around there.
06:24They are all better than a compensatory pick because they're all multiple players versus one player.
06:29Except, Paul, except with a 69 percent failure rate.
06:33If you get three, you really get one that hits.
06:37OK, so you're getting one that hits.
06:39OK, so you're at the same rate as the compensatory pick.
06:42One player.
06:43OK, or or you're saying, OK, for one player, I'll keep Scoobble for this year.
06:50One player that might be good three years from now.
06:52And none of these offers gave you three picks.
06:55Not a single one of them.
06:56Mark, I guess my thing is, I think you're going to get more than that.
07:00OK, because I think that when it boils down to it, it's going to be not necessarily team's value, Scoobble.
07:10I don't want you with my competition.
07:12I don't want you playing for Atlanta.
07:16I don't want you in Milwaukee.
07:18God knows the Dodgers don't need another arm.
07:21I got to do whatever it takes to keep the Dodgers from getting that arm.
07:25OK, so that's where you may see some overpaying, not necessarily because I want you,
07:31because I don't need you in my competition's uniform.
07:34Well, no, I hear all that.
07:35You may.
07:36And let's just say you do get three players.
07:38Even if you get two, two beats is one.
07:41Two is better than one.
07:42Like you got two bikes rather than one.
07:44The compensatory pick.
07:47You could ride this thing till it goes.
07:48He's not coming back here.
07:50You have a chance, in my opinion, to actually get a haul.
07:53I know a lot of experts are saying you're not going to get that.
07:56These same experts told you, you know, three weeks ago, the Tigers are trading, Scoobble,
08:01and now they're all backing down.
08:03These are executives.
08:04Executives.
08:05Mark, what I'm saying is they don't know.
08:07They're speculating just like we are.
08:09Fair.
08:10Three weeks ago, he's being traded.
08:12Nope, he's not being traded.
08:13But because they're the experts, we believe them.
08:17My belief is that he hasn't been traded because what I just shared with you is close to what the
08:23offers are.
08:25If the offers were the King's ransom that you're surmising, I think he's already moved at this point.
08:31I don't think he's going to get traded because I don't think Scott Harris wants that mark on his record.
08:39He knows what's right, but he doesn't want to do what's right.
08:44He knows this is the smart play, because once again, he's going to get kicked out that Coney Island booth.
08:52Once you make this deal, now the crosshairs are on you.
08:57Now we expect this to work.
08:59Now you're going to judge the players that come in, and are they any good compared to what he's doing
09:06for whatever other team you're doing?
09:08Did you play the game well?
09:10Scott knows that.
09:12If I don't do anything and I let Scoobah walk, then I'm not the bad guy.
09:18Scoobah's the bad guy.
09:19Scott Harris would rather look scared than look foolish.
09:22You know what, Paul?
09:23Right there, buddy.
09:24I know you don't like me, but I like you.
09:27Right there.
09:28Paul hates me.
09:28I don't know.
09:29So I think an interesting question is because the Tigers, the new, remember three weeks ago, it was 85%
09:35chance they'd trade him.
09:36Then it changed to last night, they're not going to trade him.
09:39Now you know as well as I do, if they come out of the gates and they tank, right?
09:44They come out of the gates and they tank, that could shift very, very quickly.
09:47But when the Tigers, when the word out there, ladies and gentlemen, is we're not going to trade him, is
09:53that smoke or is that fire?
09:55Right?
09:56Is that, are they BSing you?
09:59Are they blowing smoke up your skirts?
10:01No.
10:01Or are they actually legitimately not going to move?
10:04I don't think the Tigers are going to move them.
10:06Because I think, as Paul said, Scott would rather look scared than make a bad decision.
10:12He would rather let Scoobah be the bad guy.
10:15than him trading him because if he trades him, oh, well, now you're in the crosshairs.
10:22But is this an Otani situation?
10:24Oh, absolutely.
10:25With Otani, you knew he was gone.
10:28He actually didn't want to be there.
10:31We'll discuss this next.
10:34248-539-9797.
10:37Yeah.
10:38Scoobah should be gone or not.
10:4097-1.
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