00:00It's, you know, a setback because a few weeks ago, Qatar was already warning its customers that it could leave
00:08the force measure by August, September.
00:12And some of Qatar's priorities are going to be delayed.
00:15And what we're seeing is that there is still a sword of Damocles hanging over the economies of the Gulf
00:21states.
00:21And those kind of repeated cycles of conflict are going to damage the confidence for the customers and investors.
00:31Mrs. Keene just emailed in surveillance correction.
00:34I said Qatar, and it is Qatar.
00:37I don't know.
00:38It's Qatar.
00:39I don't know.
00:40Qatar.
00:41Leslie's correct.
00:42Mrs. Keene's correct.
00:43I'm wrong.
00:44What a shock.
00:45So, Leslie, I know in a recent research note, you kind of lay out three scenarios for the war with
00:51Iran.
00:51And I'll summarize them, you know, comprehensive peace, back to war.
00:58And your scenario number one, which is no war, no peace, which is kind of where we seem to be.
01:04If that's, in fact, the case where we have ongoing discussions, ongoing skirmishes, what's that do to the global energy
01:10market?
01:11So it creates a lot of uncertainties.
01:13You know, when you look at demand supply, demand balances, and prices are going to remain volatile.
01:20We've seen already, you know, for gas, LNG, gas prices, JKM, TTF going back up yesterday and the day before
01:29with the series of attacks.
01:32So it's a lot of uncertainties.
01:34However, we've seen that following the short MOU that we've had so far, prices have come down, market has relaxed.
01:44And so it's kind of the market restores its confidence pretty fast.
01:48Yeah.
01:49When you look at your world of natural gas and LNG, do you say that over time they can solve
01:56Hormuz just with pipelines, infrastructure, doing it the old way?
02:01So I think it's easier to do for the oil side.
02:04And last time I was here, I mentioned, you know, peak Hormuz.
02:07Maybe, you know, Iran has used its stronger card, you know, once and for all.
02:14On the LNG side, it's more complicated for the UAE and Qatar.
02:18You just can't do a pipeline.
02:19There are not that many alternatives.
02:20There is a small pipeline from Qatar to the UAE, but it never wanted to be expanded.
02:25And however, those companies, those countries are going to look for diversification of their portfolio, buying equity, stakes and having
02:34supply elsewhere out of the strait.
02:37But for now, for their molecules inside the strait, things are very complicated.
02:43Before the war, the strait of Hormuz was open for all traffic, and I think we all just assumed that
02:49was the way.
02:50We can't make that assumption anymore, can we?
02:52I mean, going forward, I don't think we can ever – if I'm an insurer, I'm never going to consider
02:58the strait of Hormuz completely safe like I did before the war.
03:01How does that impact – A, is that true?
03:03And B, how does that impact kind of getting molecules out of there?
03:07Yeah, so I think unless, you know, we have this scenario of resuming the war and have very targeted objectives
03:14and, you know, this idea of finishing the job that some Gulf states, you know, really wanted at one point
03:22during the war because they knew that as long as you have this bully or your GC in control, it's
03:28going to be really hard to restore the confidence of investors.
03:32And, you know, even if some Gulf countries are going solo right now and are trying to placate Iran and
03:40having some kind of non-pact aggression, bilateral agreements, you never know what's coming next tomorrow.
03:46You know, we know from history that those non-aggression pacts never last.
03:52Where – just one final question.
03:54Where does the LNG from the Persian Gulf go?
03:57I think our audience perceives the oil goes around, goes around India, goes through the Straits of Malacca to Asia.
04:04Same thing with their LNG?
04:05So about 70% of Qatari LNG is heading to Asia, about 25% to China.
04:14So those are, you know, the big markets.
04:16And the critical message is there's no other way to get it.
04:18It's got to get out of the boat to move.
04:19The most impacted are the emerging markets in Southeast Asia because they are the closest.
04:23And Qatar was, you know, for them, their only supplier.
04:28For some of them, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, like the main supplier.
04:32Have you been to Qatar?
04:33I've never been to Qatar.
04:34Okay.
04:35They ran it and they're not Dubai.
04:37Like Dubai's been really quiet the last couple of days.
04:39Yeah, yeah.
04:40Absolutely.
04:40This has upped the Persian Gulf.
04:41But I think Qatar suffered, from what all the reporting I've seen, some serious damage.
04:45So when the President of the United States says we're going to get rid of Karj Island, we're going to
04:48take over Karj Island, this island off Iran, up by Kuwait and Iraq.
04:53How do you respond to that as an expert?
04:56So, you know, at one point when we were thinking about, you know, this idea of finishing the job and
05:02the different targets that the U.S. military could go after, you know, critically was to remove access of money
05:13revenues to the IRGC.
05:15Because they are the ones benefiting from the oil revenues.
05:19You know, that's their pocket money, then they buy more weapons, and they continue the cycle of violence.
05:24So, you know, this is one of the targets to really put an end to the money generation cash mashing
05:30for the IRGC.
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