00:00I bring those up because people say, hey, we're having all these storied IPOs.
00:03Is this the beginning or the end?
00:05And if you go back to the late 90s, those two companies were the premier companies.
00:10And they IPO'd in 1998.
00:13We didn't hit the peak until early 2000.
00:16And so I think there's still plenty of room to run.
00:20What do you make of this SpaceX IPO?
00:23Not the deal per se, but just kind of what it means to have a massive, massive deal come into
00:28the marketplace,
00:29which, I mean, you know, the valuation, I guess you have to set aside.
00:33What does it tell you about the markets?
00:35It tells you the markets are very, very healthy.
00:38And what we're seeing across the capital markets is there's still, I think there's still too many dollars chasing too
00:45few assets.
00:46If you look in the credit markets, that appears to be true.
00:48If you look in the equity markets, the bid for risk is still incredibly strong.
00:52And it's just telling you that the market is very, very healthy.
00:56Earnings, they've been great.
00:57Great. I mean, better than great.
00:59Are they great enough to support this market here?
01:03I think so.
01:04So back late last year, we thought the peak or EPS growth peak would be 2Q.
01:10I don't think we're seeing the peak in growth until sometime in 27 because the numbers have been that good.
01:17And as I look at this, things are just popping on all cylinders.
01:21And I think this is going to continue.
01:23The thing to keep an eye out for is still the credit markets.
01:27And again, if we go back to the late 90s, credit markets in 98 started to widen.
01:31Here, we're at multi-decade heights.
01:34That's not, and it's not wavering.
01:37I look at the pullback Friday, and I put up log exponential moving averages.
01:43I got my own formula.
01:45And this phrase, we came back to support.
01:49Translate that phrase from your mortals.
01:51So back to support just means that we've gotten a little bit in simple terms.
01:56We got a little bit ahead of ourselves.
01:58We needed a little bit of a positive refreshes that appears to have happened on Friday.
02:05Could we have some more this week?
02:06Sure, certainly.
02:07Obviously, futures are up today on some good news from the president and from Iran.
02:13But equities just don't, and we were talking about this for a while, equities just don't always go up and
02:19to the right.
02:20You need to pause.
02:21You need to pull back.
02:22You need to reset.
02:23And that's what we did last week.
02:26So I guess one of the questions here for the credit markets is we're seeing higher rates out there.
02:32I mean, we got the two-year at 4.14%, 4.15%.
02:38What's that telling a year?
02:39Yeah, so we're looking in rates markets.
02:43We're looking in credit markets.
02:44The one thing that has caught our eye in the rates market is if you look at real rates, real
02:49rates are higher, slightly higher, or on Friday were slightly higher than where they were when nominal rates, 10-year
02:55nominal rates, were at 4.70%.
02:59And so the rate market has become a little bit more restrictive, which goes in line with a little bit
03:06of an equity pullback.
03:07The other thing is when you look at fit fund expectations, pricing in a hike, I think that's just too
03:15aggressive.
03:16I look at the equity market now.
03:19People have to reset.
03:20And the people that have to most reset are the people who have missed the fun and games.
03:25One year, fun and games.
03:27Two years.
03:27Three years.
03:28It becomes additive.
03:30What does CIBC say to people that said, I didn't climb on board for this reason or that.
03:36I got to climb on board now.
03:39How do you approach that?
03:40So, Tom, one thing, we've been pro-momentum all year long.
03:44We thought that, you know, to make it in simple terms, the chart had to look good to be invested.
03:49And we wanted people to stay away from the contrarian trade.
03:52And we don't want them to go bottom fishing because a lot of those stocks just, there were fundamental issues
03:57that led you to believe that they wouldn't work.
04:00We're still of that ilk.
04:02And what we're telling people is, hey, you can find good opportunities.
04:06You can find good risk awards across the board in utilities, in staples, in technology, in industrials.
04:13And so just look for those good risk awards.
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