00:00So, Vanir, how do you how do you trade around that? You know, is the idea that, you know, the
00:04Fed, in your words, is losing control of the economy?
00:07I mean, is that an investable thesis? Absolutely. I think what's happening and you have to kind of step back
00:13a second and not just think practically in terms of the most recent data on inflation and labor and all
00:19those things.
00:20And then you have to look back and say how we got to this point. Right. If you look back
00:23the last 20 or 30 years, we had the 2000 crash and then we had the 2008 event and then
00:30incredible amount of money printing that happened and credibility got kind of got lost that had been earned for a
00:37long period of time.
00:38And so now you're at a point and of course, you know, in Europe and in Japan and other places,
00:43we had 28 trillion of negatively yielding bonds. Right. Remember that?
00:46And then inflation surged and all this money printing happened. And now we're at this point. It's like a slow
00:53motion train wreck.
00:54And you are now, you know, sitting at a point where they've lost all the bullets, so to speak.
01:00And the market is saying and that you can see, obviously, in terms of old strategies performing again, bond arbitrage
01:08strategies, momentum strategies and so on, you know, despite the recent pullback.
01:12So what you basically are in a world where investors are a little bit back in charge, the way you
01:19traded is by old fashioned looking at value. Right.
01:23In the 2010 to 2012 or 15 was a pretty massive distortion in financial markets because the central banks were
01:31basically controlling asset prices and that didn't work very well.
01:36So now you're back to the way markets are supposed to behave, which is, you know, large moves and bad
01:44risk gets penalized, good risk gets rewarded.
01:47And, you know, we can talk about it more later. We are seeing pretty significant signs of this evolution ending
01:55in what we call a regime shift.
01:56I think we are undergoing a pretty substantial change in conditions in the markets of the next 10 years will
02:02look very different.
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