00:00Does this feel different to you as you look at the movements that we've seen this morning?
00:03Sure. So I think it's a multifaceted answer.
00:06Well, thank you so much for having me.
00:08What we're seeing today is a reaction to the idea that diplomacy is still on the table.
00:13And obviously that was an open question after the talk scheduled to take place in Islamabad fell apart a few
00:19weeks ago.
00:20I think a lot of investors were looking at the U.S. reaction to Iranian hostilities over the past few
00:28days.
00:28And interpreting the restraints that the U.S. showed as an indication that they don't actually want to return to
00:36active conflict.
00:37There is still an incentive to seek a de-escalation.
00:42That being said, I don't want to overstate the optimism that we're seeing today.
00:47Open interest in the oil market is at a critical low.
00:50As of the last time I checked, Brent participation was the lowest since last August,
00:56meaning that any sort of price move that we're going to see, whether it's to the upside or to the
01:00downside, will be exaggerated.
01:02And at the same time, while traders are pricing in possibly a near-term restart to flows as of today,
01:08there's no idea that it'll be instantaneous.
01:13There's still a huge backlog of ships in the Hormuz.
01:16It'll take a moment to convince ship owners that it's actually safe to move out,
01:22to ensure that there's no mines remaining in the Hormuz,
01:26and to actually restart the shut-in production in various countries in the Gulf.
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