00:00Oil prices peering gains on an Axios report that Tehran, through Pakistani mediators,
00:05has delivered a new proposal to the U.S. aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
00:09The weekend saw Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakshi meet mediators on Saturday,
00:14then travel to Oman. He also spoke to the foreign ministers of Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
00:19The semi-official Tasneem News Agency reports that he conveyed Iran's conditions for ending the war,
00:25including a new legal framework for Hormuz lifting the blockade,
00:28compensation for damage and guarantees against further military action,
00:32but he wasn't discussing nuclear issues.
00:35Joining us now is Stuart Livingstone, Wallace Bloomberg's executive editor for the Middle East and North Africa,
00:39and Stephen Saczynski, who leads our Asia energy coverage.
00:43Stuart, let me start with you with the latest geopolitical developments.
00:46We walked in on Friday thinking there could be the possibility of another round of Islamabad discussions.
00:53There are reports that Witkoff and Kushner were going to fly there.
00:56That didn't happen. Just walk us through where we are now in terms of the diplomatic to and fro.
01:02So in terms of the weekend, what it looks like is that there was probably more optimism than was warranted
01:08on the U.S. side.
01:09It was clear the Iranian Foreign Minister, or at least it was clear by Sunday,
01:12that the Iranian Foreign Minister didn't really have anything new.
01:14So you read off there the list of conditions that Iran's putting around it.
01:19That looks exactly like the conditions that we've seen dozens of times now.
01:23It doesn't appear to be much movement.
01:25Maybe there's some detail there that's new, but broadly it looks like their position is unchanged.
01:30But do we have a better understanding of what Iran wants and the sequencing of how they see things unfolding?
01:36Yeah, I mean, we've always been very reluctant to discuss the nuclear file.
01:39You know, that's been true since day one. I mean, arguably that's been true for several years now.
01:44So that's item number one. Item number two is they now have huge leverage in the form of Hormuz.
01:50And yes, there is a double blockade. Yes, they are also having great issues in getting their oil out.
01:55But they now have a pretty big card to play.
01:58And it's clear to me, at least, that they're not going to give that up easily.
02:01Yeah. Stephen, let's talk about the straight, right?
02:04Because, you know, you walk in this morning, again, some media suggestions that maybe they're moving towards a framework
02:11where there's going to be a lifting of the restrictions on the straight from both sides.
02:15But again, no confirmation that this is actually going to happen.
02:19And at the same time, the straight still is effectively shut.
02:23How are oil markets reading all of these dynamics?
02:27I mean, it's something that I think every day people wake up to see which ships have gone through, what's
02:34gone through,
02:34which ships have been turned around by the U.S. Navy, and what ships are potentially even getting attacked.
02:40So I think, you know, when you look at the banks, they've moved their assumptions.
02:44We have Morgan Stanley saying now that they don't see a full resumption of travel through Hormuz and oil production
02:52in the region
02:52until end of June from their mid-May initial outlook before.
02:57That's their base case.
02:59But also, when you just talk to traders, ship owners, everyone's still very anxious about the entire region.
03:06So even if there were some sort of extension of ceasefire, some sort of breakthrough with the peace deal,
03:11it would take weeks and months for them to kind of figure out the insurance,
03:15to make sure that their staff and the folks on the ships are comfortable going through,
03:19and also that it's safe to do so.
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