00:00We see that there is negotiations through force right now.
00:05Negotiations are continuing despite having the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran,
00:13the U.S. blockade, and ongoing fighting.
00:17It continues. However, Iran is still at the table
00:21because money, prospects of money, keep Iran at the table.
00:27Also, they are dealing altogether with the fate and the future of the Strait of Hormuz,
00:35and they are showing potential new alliance, new accommodation,
00:39and this is all ongoing behind the backdoor and behind the rhetorics and behind the propaganda.
00:45I think discussions are still ongoing and proceeding.
00:49Leslie, if I'm a country that is historically dependent upon Mideast oil,
00:53I have to rethink my strategy, right?
00:55I can't depend on it because I can't think of a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz
01:00may ever be completely free and open.
01:02What are those countries in Asia, in Europe?
01:04How do they think about that?
01:05So I think the silver lining in all this crisis is that the Hormuz Strait is a one-time leverage
01:11for Iran.
01:12Now that they have used it, now that they have exposed to the whole world
01:16that they can use their arsenal of missiles and de facto close the Strait,
01:21all the other countries around it that depend on it will diversify at all costs,
01:26their routes, their exports, and find alternatives.
01:29It may take months, it may take years, but I think we've seen the peak of Iran using it as
01:35a weapon.
01:36That's a great point.
01:37I hadn't thought about that.
01:38It might be a one-time card here.
01:40So what are some of the alternatives?
01:42As I just look at that part of the world, I think, do we have to build more pipelines and
01:46stuff
01:47to get rid of it, to de-emphasize the Strait?
01:49But those aren't necessarily secure as well.
01:52So it's an interesting question because if we look at the LNG market that was increasingly becoming
01:56at one point more liquid, a little bit more like oil, thanks to LNG, which is seaborne transportation,
02:04the opposite of a marriage between a buyer and a seller with a fixed point A to fixed point B,
02:10and you cannot change the route.
02:12We may go back to a more 50-50 ratio, depending on where you're based,
02:17but at the end of the day, countries will want to diversify routes, pricing, sources, and fuels.
02:26I'm a big advocate of multi-fuel hedging or multi-energy hedging.
02:32I think we're increasingly in a world where we cannot say no to any energy and take everything we can.
02:37And that depends on domestic resources, financing, and geopolitical alignment.
02:45Let's go short-term with you.
02:46I find huge debate right now.
02:49Well, one segment of the debate, rather, is there will be a jump condition in Brent out to a higher
02:55price.
02:56What does the present microeconomics of oil look like to Leslie Palti-Guzman?
03:01So if we look at the U.S. market, there is a fear of potential inflation, a fear, you know,
03:07there are different deadlines that the president is looking at.
03:11But I think right now he decided, you know, to go to war against Iran and has to prove to
03:18the American people and the global and the world that we are better off after the war than we were
03:26before.
03:27And the price of oil, I think, will eventually go down once there is a holding ceasefire and that the
03:35sea lanes are deemed safe enough to resume traffic.
03:40Are you surprised I'm looking at Brent at $98 a barrel?
03:44Are you surprised we're not at $140, $150 a barrel?
03:48I mean, I'm kind of surprised that the market isn't much higher and much more concerned.
03:52Yes, and we have the same question on the natural gas side for LNG also.
03:58And, you know, on the LNG side, for example, my reasons is that we were already in a structurally long
04:03market before.
04:04And there is some optimistic about new sources of supply and same for oil.
04:09You know, we're looking at new capacity coming online and from away from the Middle East.
04:15Also, demand has been very disciplined, at least on the LNG side, and, you know, procurement discipline and demand destruction
04:24have also contributed to where the prices are.
04:28And eventually, the fact that China, you know, didn't buy emergency LNG cargoes, for example, alleviated the market.
04:38And Europe didn't have, for example, to compete with Asia to attract cargoes yet.
04:42What, when you wake up in the morning, do you listen to about the fractured dialogue between us and Iran?
04:49Do you listen to Qatar? Do you listen to Pakistan?
04:52What's the intermediary that you find of most value?
04:58Well, first, I'm trying to cut through the nose and try to understand what is propaganda, what is not propaganda,
05:04what is rhetoric, what is not.
05:06I thought it was interesting a few days ago to hear the U.S. threatening Oman, who is an ally
05:11from the U.S.,
05:11but I think it was a message to the rest of the Middle East, to the Gulf countries, that reopening
05:19the Strait of Hormuz,
05:20there is a need for a unified cohort of countries that will resist accommodating with Iran.
05:28I think many countries that are depending on Iran right now are trying to accommodate and appease and are ready
05:36to give a fee to Iran.
05:39And I think it will be, the coming days are going to be critical to see if we see the
05:43emergence of this kind of new procedures,
05:46new system around the Strait of Hormuz, or whether it's going to be a fully open strait.
05:51Put it in the middle, please.
05:51Well, first, if it can take the entrance to Hormuz.
Comments