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The big focus of this episode of Democratic Newsroom is on the shrinking of regional parties as they face internal rebellion and the changing map of Indian politics amid BJP's growing dominance at the centre.
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00:06Hello and welcome to yet another edition of the Democratic Newsroom. I'm Preeti Chaudhary.
00:11Our band of editors are back to discuss a brand new topic. And this time around it's not rather
00:17brand new, something that has been brewing for years and have reached a boiling point now.
00:23Is it the sunset time for satra? Is the era of regional parties over? Well, let's take it from
00:32here. Joining me all the way from Mumbai is our consulting editor, Rajdeep Sardusai. Also our
00:37Mumbai bureau chief, Sahil Joshi joins us. Lots happening where Mumbai is concerned. Gaurav Savant
00:43is with us and so is Akshita. I want to cut across first to Rajdeep. Rajdeep, end of an era
00:50where it
00:50comes down to regional parties, the sunset years for the satra. Look, it would appear
00:57so given what's happened over the last few months with the Shiv Sena, with the Trinambul
01:01Congress, to some extent with the DMK. But look, two, three quick points. One, I think
01:08regional parties strength is often inversely proportional to how strong or weak the party
01:13at the center is. Because the BJP appears so dominant at the moment, these regional parties
01:18appear weaker. Number two, I think we must draw a distinction between regional parties that
01:24have emerged from the womb of the Congress, like the Trinambul Congress, like the NCP, which
01:29are facing, I think, a crisis of identity. Because these parties actually did not emerge as exponents
01:38of regional politics. They came because of various concerns they had from within the Congress.
01:43On the other hand, a party like the DMK or Shiv Sena were genuine regional parties, espousing
01:48the concerns, the sentiments of their respective regions. Now, those parties have got trapped
01:56in what is often described as Parivar Vat. And many of them are finding it difficult for
02:01the next generation to hold on to their core. Remember, the founders of NCP and Trinambul
02:09are still around, Mamata Banerjee and Sharad Pawar. But these other regional parties are
02:13facing a challenge because they are the gen next. Whether it's Aditya Thakre, Uddav
02:18Thakre, whether it's an MK Stalin, Uday Nidhi Stalin. So, we've got to make a distinction.
02:22You know, I don't want to make a broad sweep here and say regional parties are finished.
02:25Because who knows, five years from now, if the party at the center weakens, these regional
02:30parties could emerge yet again. They had their high noon during the 1990 to 2014 period,
02:38when the Congress had weakened, when the BJP had still not fully emerged, there was a vacuum
02:43and they filled that vacuum. Now, with Narendra Modi and Neta No. 1 and the BJP, such a dominant
02:49party, naturally, these parties are on the back foot. I mean, we are in Mumbai. You know,
02:55we are the regional, we are the, Sahil and I are your regional allies at the moment. Now,
03:01can you do without us? I don't think your program would be half as interesting sitting in Delhi
03:06where you all chat on the same issues day after day. You need, India is about diversity.
03:11Don't think that that diversity is going to go away easily just because Gaurav Savant
03:15wants it.
03:16One nation, one culture, one religion. We are a diverse society. We are proud of our linguistic
03:23cultural diversity. It will reflect one day or the other in our politics also.
03:27Rajji, the sheer fact, okay. You know, what you're really hinting at is, will this raise
03:31questions where federalism and state governance and cultural regional identity is concerned?
03:35Well, that's a different debate. But yes, you did have it bang on.
03:39No, no, it's a same. No, no, no. Don't say it's a different debate. There is something
03:44to be said for regional parties that reflect the linguistic, cultural diversity of this country.
03:52Those parties should exist. We don't want only a Delhi-dominated newsroom or a Delhi-dominated
03:59political milieu.
04:00Fair point. But Rajdeep, many would suggest as well with what is happening in Bengal that
04:04why can't then a faction of the central party represent the regional interests of a regional
04:11party as well. Now, it's a debate. We can, you know, continue to have. I want to bring
04:15in Gaurav Savant into this conversation. You know, Gaurav, one thing is right. And I think
04:19that's one thing we all would come together on is that the heydays of the regional satrabs
04:25was when the Congress was weakening from 89 primarily to all the way to 2014, where there
04:30was no government at the center without a coalition partner or one of the regional parties there.
04:35It was only when the BJP came, you know, in the kind of brute majority that it did in 2014,
04:41it completely marginalized regional outfits. But there has been a clear distinction ever
04:46since Gaurav. And that cannot be denied, which is the link that BJP gets stronger when it allies
04:54with a regional party, which continues to get weaker. We've seen that happen.
05:00So, right now, when you look at the situation, this is talent rising and dynasty falling. Look
05:07at it across the country, wherever talented leaders are leading regional parties, those
05:13parties are doing exceptionally well. Take TVK, for example, look at how well Vijay is doing,
05:18108 seats. But dynasty parties, you know, you have to arrive at the, what is the core of the
05:26problem? The core of the problem in regional parties is not that they're regional parties
05:30or that BJP is very strong. The point is, if you don't bring talent up and if you do
05:36Bhai Bhati Jawa, you know, Didi Bhai Po somewhere or, you know, a nephew here, a son there, a daughter
05:43there and not talent there, that is where the problem takes place. In TVK, that is not the problem.
05:48That was a problem with DMK, that was a problem with TMC, that is a problem with Shiv Sena, that's
05:52a problem with NCP. And that is why you have others who are rising, point one. Point two, even in
05:58this,
05:59if you are hardworking to whatever extent you may be hardworking, Samajwadi party is a regional party.
06:04Samajwadi party did exceptionally well in 2024 elections, despite a very strong BJP, despite Yogi Aditya
06:11But so did the TMC, despite Narendra Modi. So did the TMC, which was Vasija and…
06:17TMC is split. But the TMC did very well in 2024. So, right now I am talking about Samajwadi
06:23party as a regional party, which is looking very strong. Is it weakened? We will know in 2027 elections.
06:31But when you look at the elections right now, what had happened, since you mentioned TMC, TMC did win 80
06:37seats.
06:38It did have about, what, 40% voter, you know, thing. But what did it ultimately lead to?
06:46All trust in only one BIPO and the parties split. Now, you may want to blame the BJP for it,
06:51but then that would mean that others don't have a faculty. It's only the BJP guides them and they get
06:57guided.
06:57I don't think that's the case. Okay. I want to bring in Sahil, because Sahil, to give and throw in
07:02more examples,
07:03either you're with the BJP, where regional outfits are concerned, or you're against the BJP.
07:09If you're against the BJP, then in all probability, at least, and I'm only going by past reference points,
07:15your party splits or there's an internal factionalism. And there's enough to go by where that is concerned.
07:21You had the TDP, which decided to go with the BJP. You had the BJD, which decided to go with
07:26the BJP.
07:27At one point of time, we all know where the BJD is TDP. Of course, there's a question mark there.
07:32There are multiple other parties, the Shirumani Akali Dal. One can keep going on and on.
07:37But Sahil, the focus right now...
07:39What's the question mark on TDP?
07:40What's the question mark on TDP?
07:41There's no question mark. I'm saying we'll see how it goes.
07:42You said TDP.
07:43We'll see how it goes. That's...
07:44You must have heard me.
07:45The TDP is together.
07:47Narayan looked at me that very clear.
07:48Either you go with the BJP or you're against the BJP.
07:51I want to bring in Sahil into this conversation.
07:53Sahil, to bring you into this conversation, all eyes right now are on Maharashtra.
07:58Because it does seem at a point where, let's say it's the sunset for satraps.
08:04But it's all gains for the Congress.
08:06Because what's coming in right now is the sheer fact that at least the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP
08:11is looking to come back home to where it fractioned from, which is the Congress.
08:17And also, similar kind of buzz around whatever is left of the TMC.
08:24Well, right now the NCP seems to have a very clear choice.
08:29You know, either the Congress is definitely offering them that kind of a choice.
08:32That, you know, either your party will break again.
08:34The way Shiv Sena UBT broke and six MPs shifted to Ektach in this party.
08:38Because there is a clear Mission 362 going on in the Parliament.
08:42As soon as the Trinamool Congress broke away, the 20 MPs merged into NCPI.
08:49This, you know, the series have started of breaking the regional parties.
08:54Shiv Sena UBT was the first one.
08:56And now NCP knows that it's going to be their turn.
08:59So the Congress is kind of offering them that, you know, rather than your party will break,
09:05you know, just why don't you just merge with us.
09:07And that talk has always been going on.
09:09There is a talk, definitely, within the NCP as well, NCPSP, that what should we do about this.
09:16Because they know that this is what is going to happen.
09:18So that's why it has become a very peculiar situation where Sharath Pawar will now finally have to decide
09:23whether to keep floating the party as it is, even if his five or six MPs break away
09:29and merge into some maybe NCP, AP or maybe BJP or maybe some random small party which was non-existent
09:37before.
09:38Or he should just merge his party into Congress and so that, you know,
09:42he can save his Member of Parliament from breaking away to the BJP.
09:46So, you know, that is what Sharath Pawar will finally have to decide.
09:50And there is a clear-cut, you know, two thoughts in the party at this point of time.
09:55Some people want to go with the government for obvious reasons because they want to progress their political careers.
10:02But on a larger point, right now, you know, in the opening remark,
10:07Preeti, you were mentioning that, is it the end game for the regional parties?
10:12You know, which regional parties we are talking about?
10:13Shivsen Aikna Chindid, Shivsenai is also a regional party.
10:16TDP is also a regional party.
10:18Jantadal United is also a regional party.
10:20And now it is going to struggle because Nitish Kumar's state can be clearly seen.
10:25Chirak Paswan's party is a Parivaric party plus a regional party.
10:31That is also a regional party.
10:32That's what I said, either you're with the BJP or you're against the BJP.
10:36Exactly. One, two.
10:38But even they will face such kind of a problem because, you know, after delimitation,
10:42if we presume that this delimitation bill is passed, the BJP's strength in the parliament will go multifold.
10:49Whereas the regional parties who are having some 13 MPs or 15 MPs, they will just,
10:54even if we think that they will double their numbers, they will still be in some range of 30.
10:59So as good as they will eventually will have to decide whether to be in the BJP or to keep
11:04themselves separately
11:05because the BJP will be, you know, omnipresent everywhere in the Lok Sabha.
11:10And that is the challenge which the regional parties will face after the delimitation.
11:14That is equally true of the Congress party and Congress allies.
11:15But that hasn't, okay, you know, but Sahir, I want to bring in Akshita, but that hasn't really quite worked,
11:19right?
11:19Because if you go under that umbrella, that to save our regional identity, we need to go up against the
11:23BJP.
11:24You had a clear example in the case of the TMC.
11:27The TMC thought that it was one of the strongest regional satraps which was going against the grain of the
11:31BJP
11:31and it would be able to preserve its party.
11:34It's imploded in a manner which has been, you know, quicker than any other political regional outfit
11:40that we've seen in the recent past.
11:42So there is a dichotomy there.
11:43I want to just bring in Akshita as well and then we'll go back to Rajdeep and we'll bring in
11:47Gaurav Bhatt.
11:47But Akshita, what's really interesting is happening is in the state that you study deeply politically
11:54and that is the state of Tamil Nadu.
11:56At one end, you have an AIDMK who did ally with the BJP.
12:00That is imploding.
12:01You have the DMK that stands decimated.
12:03You have a new entrant, TVK, which has taken separate space.
12:06Then you have the BJP's Anna Malai who has broken away from the BJP and come back to Tamil Nadu
12:13and says that central parties don't understand the language of regional identity like Tamil Nadu.
12:19But let me just highlight that in Tamil Nadu, unlike any of the other states,
12:23none of this is happening because of national parties.
12:25It's all regional players.
12:26It's one of the, exactly.
12:27I think the Tamil Nadu model is perhaps something other regional parties can maybe learn from
12:32and maybe take notes from because even now you're seeing, yes, winds have changed the respect to Tamil Nadu.
12:37A regional outfit has come to the fore, not a national outfit.
12:40I think what Tamil Nadu has done differently, and maybe, you know, it's because of Dravidian politics
12:44for the last many decades, they've kind of seeped it into the core of the state,
12:47of linguistic identity that Rajdeep was speaking of, of regional identity,
12:51and the constant narrative of Delhi versus us.
12:54Even now, you have the TVK, which is oddly and, you know, very surprisingly friendly with the central government.
13:01They're saying, you know, we don't want to go out there, send out a message that will take you on
13:04on everything.
13:05An issue-based support or opposition is what they speak of.
13:09But despite that, it doesn't mean that, you know, the doors are opening up for the BJP in any way.
13:15Even a Congress, for that matter.
13:16Many would say, Rahul Gandhi is so popular in Tamil Nadu, why is the Congress not able to set foot?
13:21Sure, they've got their political policies all wrong, but I think that the regional parties have seeped in
13:27and have set up such a base in Tamil Nadu that there's no question of a national party ever growing
13:32beyond them.
13:33Even when a Vijay has come in or a DMK is there, the DMK is still decimated, yes.
13:38But are they completely out of the political game?
13:40One hundred percent, no.
13:41They're still very much relevant in Tamil Nadu politics.
13:44And I think that's something that regional parties in Tamil Nadu have worked out wonderfully.
13:48I'd say largely in the South.
13:49I think the JDS, yes, you're right, is, you know, with the BJP.
13:52We were in Maharashtra some 15 years, 20 years past.
13:55That's how it started.
13:55Yes, I was going to say exactly that.
13:57Nothing can happen to Pawar and Thakres.
13:59Nothing can ever happen to Pawar and Thakres.
14:01Nothing can ever happen to the Shiv Sena or the NCP.
14:04So never say no, never.
14:05But it's not just a DMK AI.
14:08Sahil, allow her to complete.
14:09You've got a new political player also who's emerged.
14:12It's not just a, you know, two-front DMK AI, DMK anymore.
14:15A new player who has nothing to do with any of the national parties does have an alliance with the
14:20Congress.
14:20So a strong regional alternative was provided and it had occupied, it has occupied the space as well.
14:28But Rajdeep, you know, also if you look at the sheer question of political parties, which regional parties,
14:37which haven't gone with the BJP, but have continued to support the BJP from the outside.
14:42And you can look at examples of that.
14:43There is the BJD, where it stands, everyone knows.
14:46Then, you know, you look at the Shirumani Akali Dal, the YSRCP, Jagan Mohan Reddy,
14:52always on key issues supporting the BJP.
14:54I mean, also add one point.
14:56No, no, one minute.
14:57One minute.
14:58First of all, Tamil Nadu is a bad example.
15:00Because Tamil Nadu is sui generis.
15:02It's a state, I'll tell you why.
15:04Because Tamil Nadu does not have the two major national parties as players.
15:07But that's a reason.
15:08You see, neither the Congress is dominant nor the BJP.
15:10Naturally, the space will be occupied by regional parties.
15:12There's a reason for that.
15:13They're not allowed to go around.
15:14They've tried.
15:15They've never succeeded.
15:16Let me give you a good example.
15:17Ma'am, just a minute.
15:18Let me give you a good example.
15:20A good example is Assam.
15:22A party came up there, won its first election, Assam Ghanaparishad in the mid-1980s.
15:28Where is it today?
15:29It's a crutch.
15:30The BJP is the dominant force.
15:32Assam Ghanaparishad has been reduced to a very minor player.
15:34The moment a national party starts dominating, particularly a party like the BJP, which wants
15:41to expand its footprint, the regional parties are pushed back.
15:44To give you Maharashtra's example, 15 years ago, the Shiv Sena was the dominant player.
15:50The BJP would have to piggyback on the Shiv Sena.
15:5215 years later, what's happened?
15:54The BJP has become so dominant that the Shiv Sena has been pushed to the outside.
15:58But look at the change in leadership in Maharashtra from Bala Saheb Thakre to Uddhap Thakre
16:04to moving away from your core values.
16:06If you move away from your core values, it will have an impact.
16:09What core value?
16:11What value has always been the regional front?
16:14The rest of the things are just to expand themselves as a larger personality.
16:19It's not a core value.
16:22Shiv Sena did not move away from core Hindu twerp.
16:25And an alliance with the Congress party.
16:27Bala Saheb Thakre, no, hear me out, hear me out.
16:30But you give me examples, let me give you more examples.
16:33Bala Saheb Thakre would have to come, one second, everybody cannot talk, let me get in Gaurav.
16:38One second, Sahil, I'll come to you, allow Gaurav to come in, allow Gaurav to come in.
16:42No, it's not, but it's not just Uddhap Thakre and Gaurav, Sahil, can I just get Gaurav to come in?
16:47Everybody can't talk over each other, Sahil.
16:50Sahil, nobody can hear you.
16:51Wait, wait, hold your peace, hold your peace.
16:54Bala Saheb Thakre supported the political party for the president's post.
16:57Parties that you are speaking of, Sahil, nobody can hear you.
17:01Calm down, we'll come to you in a minute.
17:03Come to you in a minute.
17:04I'll have to bring you in, you're making an argument.
17:07It's not just about the Assam Gunn Parishan, it's not just about the Shiv Sena, which you talk about the
17:12Hindutva.
17:12What about the JDU, where does it stand?
17:14What about the BJD?
17:15These are parties which the BJP allied with, starting off as a junior partner at some point of time, other
17:20than the BJD, and then continue to marginalize that particular party.
17:24Where does the JDU stand today in Bihar?
17:26Everyone has to keep evolving.
17:28Everyone has to have a second line of leadership.
17:30Tell me, what is the second line of leadership of JDU?
17:33What is the second line of leadership?
17:35You see, when talent wants to come out, and if you only rely on your, my beta will be the
17:40next leader, my beti will be the next leader, my batija will be the next leader.
17:44People have aspirations, they will rise.
17:46These regional outfits had voids.
17:48Yes.
17:48And the BJP...
17:50I'll come to you, Sahil, one second, allow him to...
17:52Okay, now, Sahil, make your point very quickly.
17:54We're running short of time.
17:55Okay, okay.
17:56You know, I think the major threat for the regional parties at this point of time is the way the
18:01politics has become polarized on the issue of secularism or on the issue of ideology.
18:09Because now there is one ideology which exists of the Bharatiya Janta party, so either you support that kind of...
18:13There was a time in Maharashtra when two parties existed, coexisted, despite they having a same ideology, that is Hindutva
18:21ideology, but despite that they coexisted together.
18:24But, Sahil, the TDP doesn't quite share the same ideology as the BJP.
18:28And the TDP has put its code down on a number of issues and made it stand very well respected
18:32also in the alliance.
18:32And that is the reason why the regional parties will face the maximum problem.
18:36They will have to pick the choice.
18:37Either they will have to go with the Congress ideology or they will have to go with the BJP ideology.
18:42That is what is going to be the threat for the regional sub-sor.
18:43But, Sahil, I just gave you an example.
18:44The TDP...
18:45If Saina under Uddhav Thakre goes with the Congress ideology, that means...
18:49Look at what happened to TDP.
18:50All the core issues which TDP affords during Vajpayee.
18:53Raj, you want me to come in.
18:55Raj, you have one minute.
18:56Make your point.
18:56Article 370, UCC, all these issues were opposed by the TDP during Vajpayee era.
19:02Now, they are supporting it in the Parliament.
19:04Look at J.D.U. what has happened.
19:06Nitish Kumar opposed all these issues, including demolition of Bakri Majid.
19:10Now, he's supporting everything.
19:12So, you know, that is what is the change.
19:13Where is the next generation?
19:14So, that is the major threat for the regional parties at this point.
19:18But, you know, ultimately, I think we need to come back to what we began with.
19:22And that's really interesting.
19:23And let's bring in Rajudeep on that.
19:25Because, Rajudeep, when did the regional parties come up?
19:29They came up when Congress started weakening at the center.
19:32And this was an argument that you also made right in the beginning.
19:35Which is, when the central power is weak, you will have space for regional growth and regional satraps.
19:42When the center power is strong, it makes it that more difficult.
19:48That's right.
19:49You see, the first time, historically, that the regional parties emerged in India was after the 1966-67 elections.
19:55Both the general and state elections were the first time the Congress appeared to be weakening.
19:59Within five years of that, Indira Gandhi became the dominant figure.
20:03And the regional parties had to step back, with the exception of what happened in Tamil Nadu.
20:07Because in Tamil Nadu, it was sui generis, I keep repeating.
20:11The fact was, because the Congress withdrew from the opposition space at that time, in the 71 election,
20:16the Dravidian parties then took over and it became a binary between DMK and AIDMK,
20:21which has lasted till the 2026 election, when a new player, Vijay, comes.
20:25But in the rest of the country, particularly in the Hindi heartland,
20:28when did party, how do you classify a Bahujan Samaj party, do you classify it national or regional?
20:33Samajwadi party, national or regional?
20:35These parties came because the Congress weakened and someone had to fill in the gap.
20:39For a long time, the BJP on its own could not fill up the gap.
20:42Even in Maharashtra.
20:44Please understand, even till today,
20:45But Rajdeep, can I ask you one quick question before we go into a break?
20:49That is why the BJP need...
20:50Rajdeep, one quick question before we go into a break.
20:53Is it just the doing of the BJP, but also the doing of the regional satraps themselves?
20:59Because you lie in the bed that you make.
21:02If there has been rampant corruption in West Bengal,
21:05then there is going to be a fallback of that.
21:09Ma'am, I agree with my friend Gaurav Sawan.
21:12If the regional parties had realized that their regional identity in terms of leadership cannot be dependent on Parivar,
21:20I am sure it would have strengthened them and that is true across the board.
21:24You are limiting the leadership.
21:24Yeah, you see, because you are limiting the leadership and people's aspirations, ambitions are such that they want space.
21:30No doubt about that.
21:31But, you know, when we make this argument, we have to be careful as not to overstretch it.
21:37Because, as I said, there have been examples where, like in Tamil Nadu, only five years ago, Stalin became the
21:43chief minister.
21:44All right, we can talk about that.
21:45He became the chief minister.
21:46He became the chief minister.
21:46Exactly two seconds.
21:47You're easing up into my shoulder.
21:49That's the only reason that they are getting finished.
21:50It's also not just BJP becoming strong.
21:53It's Congress regaining territory.
21:55Congress will regain territory and regional parties will regain.
21:58So, Congress can't keep ceding ground to all these regional parties.
22:02Okay, with that, interesting developments.
22:04Because, as you just heard it out of the last 15 to 20 minutes, it's something that we are going
22:09to see play in the next couple of months.
22:12Lots going on.
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