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00:00Welcome back to the early line here on Sports Grid. It's time now for a look at the upcoming
00:06games today and some spread lines. And we begin, Joe, with the World Cup today. Match at 3 p.m.
00:12Eastern. And one of the potential favorites, maybe to go far, would be France. They take on
00:18Senegal in your neck of the woods, your old neck of the woods, I should say. Now Joe's neck of
00:24the
00:24woods is my neck of the woods here. We had a game here in South Florida yesterday. Okay, so we
00:28have
00:28this game going on in New York, France-Senegal. France is minus 210. The pitch will be hot at
00:363 p.m. Eastern. Senegal, by the way, not bad. I've seen some folks on Senegal today. I've seen some
00:47folks on social media taking them. Now, again, I'm going to lean on you here for this, Joe. Do you
00:52think there's a chance that we get our big upset? We almost got one yesterday. Actually, pretty big
00:57if you consider a tie. We'll get to that later. Is there a chance France goes down?
01:02Well, you mean, you know, what good is being a, you know, minus 2,000 favorite if you can't even
01:07score on the team here is what you're talking about with Spain yesterday. But now, listen,
01:12if we learned anything about big favorites yesterday is that, yeah, there's no guarantees for wins here.
01:19And listen, I got to tell you, Senegal, those that will remember when they first came into the World
01:27Cup, they were part of one of the biggest upsets against France in World Cup history because they
01:33upended them years back. So this is not going to be easy. I am with you here. I have also
01:39seen a lot
01:40of folks picking this game as a potential upset. I don't tend to think so. I do think France understands,
01:49knows the history. I do think, you know, the French will come out swinging. I love splitting these,
01:55these matches up into halves. And I like France in the first half. I think France has to set the
02:02tone.
02:02I think they will, in fact. But again, that doesn't mean that Senegal can't come back in the second
02:08hangout, Craig. It just means I think, I think France will likely have a one nil lead going into
02:16the break. Argentina takes on Algeria tonight. This match is in Kansas City, Missouri. It's 9 p.m.
02:23Eastern. We are covering all of the matches here on SportsGrid on our in-game live programming.
02:29And Argentina right now is minus 250. Algeria plus 700. A tie plus 350.
02:38I haven't seen as much backing on Algeria as I have for Senegal. I don't know why,
02:43because they seem about the same odds here. Maybe I'm missing something, Joe. Any
02:47lean on this one today? Well, you know, Messi's in the mix here. So Argentina, though, is trying to
02:54avoid the pain that they had back in 2022 when they lost that opening match against Saudi Arabia.
03:02Didn't work out well for them. But again, Messi is in charge of what's going to happen here. He's
03:07going to be the one in charge of getting everything all set up for them. So I think they are
03:13in good
03:14hands in this one. And yes, I agree with you. Not seeing nearly as much love for Algeria in a
03:22possible upset situation here. Looks like Argentina may be a little undervalued coming into this World
03:28Cup with a healthy Messi. Anything is possible with Argentina. I wouldn't bet against them in this
03:34spot. That's for sure. We're going to introduce you to a name that you've probably never heard
03:38before unless you follow Tunisia soccer. Welcome back to the early line. Sabri Lamushi. He has been
03:46fired. He was the manager of Tunisia, apparently. Joe, I didn't know who the manager was, but I know that
03:54Tunisia has made a big change. So that's the end of him. I suppose this is a result basically losing
04:02five to one to Sweden. This is about as bad as it would get, right, for a manager in the
04:09World Cup.
04:09Like your whole dream is to get there, you lose and get fired. Is there anything worse than this?
04:14I'm not sure what the expectations were for Tunisia heading into this World Cup. And I can tell you
04:20this, Craig, every sports book that I have looked at had Tunisia finishing last in this group. So
04:30I'm not quite sure what the expectations were. If I'm them, I'm happy I scored a goal. Forget about
04:37winning. So I don't, something else seems to be going on there. I'm not sure what it is, but they
04:43felt it was bad enough that in the middle of the group stage, they had to go ahead and fire
04:50their
04:50coach after, after one game. Crazy. So this is pretty funny. I guess, look, this is what happens
04:56when you're in the media and certainly I am. And so I understand this, but it is a little unusual,
05:00I think, for FIFA to step in and not allow the media rooms to have brands like condiments show
05:09who they're made by. Like, I understand it in the actual venue, but I guess, Joe, FIFA is not happy
05:15that when you go into the media room and you want to get yourself a burger or a hot dog,
05:20that there's a Heinz ketchup there. So they're covering it up because they're not sponsoring
05:24the tournament. So what, I mean, I guess I would ask this, Joe, like having a lot of experience being
05:30in media rooms and eating food basically every night, because I do it every night, is, you know,
05:35you can take the ketchup out of the bottle and put it in a jar or put it in a
05:39glass. Like with all the
05:41preparation going on, when did this idea occur? When they saw it sitting there on the day of the
05:46game? Very weird. Yeah, this is, and I think same situation sometimes for some venues and things like
05:54that, where they've, if you don't know by now, this is the biggest money grab organization. This
06:01and the Olympic Committee, I don't know how they get away with it, Craig. I really don't. Multi
06:06millions and millions of dollars, squeezing out every dollar against the consumer. And then, of
06:13course, you're not allowed to have a ketchup packet. Why? Because Heinz is like, we're not
06:17sponsoring FIFA. We're not paying your prices there. So, oops, could they not find a condiment
06:23company? I don't even know who else there is, actually, that you would even get. But it just seems
06:29like it's every time we turn around with FIFA, it's something about money, including hydration
06:35breaks. Right. But it's just so simple, Joe. You and I have been to events all the time
06:41where if you want to put ketchup or mustard or something on, there's a bowl, and then there's
06:46a lot of ketchup, and there's a spoon, and you just take the spoon and you put it out. Like,
06:50they didn't think about this going into. Very, very strange here that they, like, this was their
06:55answer. Let's tape it up, as opposed to just getting a bowl and a spoon. Anyway, so yesterday
07:00here on the show, Joe and I were in complete agreement that, hey, it could be a fun match,
07:04but there's no way that Spain is not going to win or even tie against Cape Verde. And that's
07:10what ended up happening yesterday. I mean, this is, I mean, a great story, I guess. It's sort of
07:15strange. Soccer is strange because you can feel good about not scoring. Like, it's just so weird
07:21that a nothing-nothing game will make them feel good. Maybe this is like a wake-up call for Spain,
07:28but I'm going to guess that this is the biggest, it's not even an upset. I don't even know what
07:33you
07:33would even call it in the World Cup, because I think they were, like, plus 400 to tie or plus
07:37500 to tie, something like that. But that hit yesterday. That, well, that was a huge outcome
07:44for the sports books, Craig, because, you know, I think you mentioned it even here on the show.
07:48Like, listen, you're not, you're not laying this price on the money line, but there were a lot of
07:53people who used them in parlays and everything else yesterday. And guess what? Didn't happen.
07:59Yeah, that three-way, not a lot of people believed a tie was even capable in this game,
08:05much less a shutout by a 40-year-old goalkeeper for Cape Verde. Unbelievable. But that's why
08:13parlays are dangerous there, Craig. That's exactly why. Meanwhile, Belgium and Egypt played to a 1-1
08:20draw Monday in Seattle. Neither team were able to claim the upper hand. Yeah, I mean, this is not the
08:27only tie yesterday. There was actually three, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay here in South Florida. I was
08:33driving yesterday around, Joe, actually made my way a little bit down near the stadium in Aventura and
08:39saw all the Uruguay fans, you know, lined up for Ubers and things like that. So they end up
08:44tying as well. And then Iran and New Zealand also tied at two yesterday. Iran came back behind and they
08:53ended up tying that up in Group G. So ties across the board yesterday. We'll be right back. We're
08:58going to get a much more in-depth look at all of the World Cup action with Kyle Bon of
09:01the Sporting
09:02News in about five minutes from now. But first, Joe, let's take a look at how the prediction markets,
09:07including Calci, see one of the matches today. We'll start off with one of our games of the day.
09:11That is France taking on Senegal. France, 67 percent. Senegal, 14 percent. And the numbers that are
09:18really interesting on the prediction markets, Joe, after yesterday are the reaction to these ties.
09:23You're starting to see ties pop up a lot more now that we saw, I believe it was three or
09:28four ties
09:29at the World Cup yesterday. Some folks think Senegal actually has a shot in this one, but I think the
09:34big movement here are on some of these matches ending 2-2, 1-1, etc. Four games yesterday, four ties,
09:42Craig, right? And it started with the whole biggest favorite so far in Spain, not being able to score
09:50on Gabe Verde in a 0-0, nil-nil game, if you can believe that. And then it didn't get
09:56any better.
09:57Not a lot of separation from teams yesterday, which likely means recency bias. The public will be all
10:03over the ties today here in the three-way markets. But the reality is we'll probably get blowout after
10:10blowout because that's how it works. But Senegal has more than enough offensive firepower to give
10:17France some issues here. Don't forget, Senegal was the one that the biggest, I think, to date,
10:24upset in World Cup history happened when Senegal entered against France in the opening round years
10:30ago. So, and they've gotten better here. This is a tricky spot for France. And given what we've
10:37already seen, you know, nothing is safe. But I do think both teams are going to have success
10:45offensively. I love the both teams, the score market. It would have cashed outside of the Spain
10:51game in three out of the four games yesterday, Greg. And I think it's going to cash in this one
10:55as well.
10:56Meanwhile, as Joe mentioned earlier in the show, whenever Argentina plays, it's the Messi show. So,
11:02most folks are in on that. 70% of the tickets on Argentina. A tie, again, has moved up in
11:08this
11:08match, too, to 21%. Algeria at 11%. This will be the second World Cup match of the day, Joe. Not
11:17a lot
11:17of backing here on Algeria, I see. No, and you're not when anytime Messi in the markets is available
11:24here. And, you know, listen, there were some question marks, and you know this, with his Miami
11:30FC situation here, about his health and would he play in this year's World Cup? Would he be available?
11:36Well, he's looked the part leading into it. And we know he's the leader. He was tremendous in 2022.
11:44All indications are he's going to be just as good this year. I think maybe even just, you know,
11:50Messi to score, yes, would be a tremendous market to be in. I see him having another big
11:57effort and big World Cup this year. Don't bet against Messi. We learned that the hard way here
12:02in Miami. Welcome back to Prediction Market Edge. I'm Craig Misch, along with Joe Ranieri.
12:14We're joined by Kyle Bond of Sporting News to break down the latest in the World Cup. And
12:19Kyle joins us now. Kyle, good morning. And certainly, before we get to today's matches,
12:24some very big surprises yesterday. Tie, tie, tie. And no, I'm not talking about what I'm not wearing
12:31here. It was a tie day at the World Cup. Yeah, no, it was an interesting day, to say the
12:37least.
12:38But this really goes to show, Craig, how exciting and interesting and fun draws can be. I know that
12:48the American audience may not fully agree there are quite, you know, grasp it yet. But I really
12:55think that, you know, you look at each one of those results, and each one had something exciting
13:01and valuable to it. I mean, the Spain Cape Verde one was thrilling because Spain, this powerhouse
13:07trying to get past one of the smallest nations ever to play at the World Cup. You've got the
13:13the finisher, Iran-New Zealand, was a thrilling game, the best game of the day. You know, two teams
13:21with lots on the line, with lots of adversity going at it. I mean, Iran, we know what they've
13:25been going through. So, you know, every game had something special to it. And just because it ended
13:30in a draw, it doesn't mean that it wasn't exciting.
13:34It's a good day, though, isn't it, right? Mbappe, Messi on the card, going to be out on the pitch
13:40here. But, you know, France better be careful with Senegal. We saw that upset years ago, right,
13:46all of a sudden. But they certainly feel like Senegal has enough offensive power to make this
13:52interesting. What do you see happening here?
13:56Yeah, I certainly do. You know, Sadio Mane is an unbelievable player. He's not quite at what he
14:02was when he was at his peak at Liverpool, but he's still a very dangerous player. I struggle here in
14:08this game with Senegal's defense. They're normally a very good defensive side. They have a number of
14:14recognizable players who either were playing in the Premier League, are playing in the Premier League,
14:19but they were really poor in their two warm-up games. They got pressed into oblivion by the United
14:26States in that 3-2 defeat for Senegal. And then they were not the better team in a nil-nil
14:33draw with
14:34Saudi Arabia in a game where Saudi Arabia missed three huge chances to score. So I worry about them
14:41defensively against the best attack in the world. You've got Kylian Mbappe, but alongside him,
14:47you've got Michael Alise, you've got a number of very good attacking players in this team.
14:54Bradley Barcala, Desiree Douai, the list goes on. So I worry defensively about Senegal in this game.
15:02And I think I would take, the odds are tough on a number of these games today. So we'll get
15:07to that.
15:07But I think in this game, Kylian Mbappe, anytime goal scorer at around even money, is very good.
15:13You know, he is chasing the all-time World Cup goal-scoring record. He's only, I believe,
15:19four goals off of Miroslav Klose's record and only 27 years old. So, you know, you would expect
15:27him to get there if not this tournament, then the next one. But he is just an incredible goal scorer.
15:32And he's in a balanced team in this France team, whereas at Real Madrid, he's still scoring tons
15:37of goals, but the team isn't very balanced around him. It's well set up for him in this France team.
15:42We have Iraq taking on Norway, Kyle, where Norway is expected to win and win easily. But certainly,
15:48you never know how these things are going to go, as we saw yesterday with Spain.
15:52Iraq takes on Norway, as I mentioned, and most of the odds and action is going to be on them
15:58today.
15:59But do you think that this, that the odds represent where this match should be?
16:05I don't. And I struggle with this game because I expect Norway to win. But when the odds are so
16:13skewed towards the expected result, it makes things really difficult. You know, I think Erling Haaland
16:20will get at least a goal in this game, if not two. He has one of the most unbelievable goal
16:25-scoring
16:26records that you'll ever see at the international level. He has 55 goals in 50 games for Norway.
16:32Yes, that is more goals than games. And you never see that. That is unheard of. But the odds are
16:40so
16:41skewed. And what we've seen over the last few days is top teams, especially European teams,
16:48European teams have really struggled to start this World Cup, that while on paper, I would expect
16:54Norway to win this game 2-0, 3-0. The way things have been going is a slow start for
17:00the power teams.
17:01I'm considering backing Iraq in this game. And the best way to do that would be on what we call
17:09double chance, which is you, your bet pays out on either an Iraq draw or victory. And when the odds
17:17are so heavily skewed in one side's favor, if you double chance the other side, things can go well.
17:22So, for example, a double chance on Cape Verde to draw or beat Spain, which I happened to tip
17:31right before kickoff, would ended up paying out at plus 900. So, you know, those can work out well
17:39for you. And I'm starting to feel like there's an opportunity here. I still do think Norway will
17:44win. I just don't. The odds are brutal in this game.
17:48All right. What are we doing with Messi today? Is he scoring? Should I bet it right now? What
17:54are we doing him? I am staying away from Lionel Messi this whole tournament. He's an unbelievable
18:00player. Do not get me wrong. I think he is the best player ever to play this game. He's still
18:05at an incredibly high level. But let me tell you why. Argentina do not blow teams out. It is not
18:11what
18:11they do. This is a team that is the best in the world at slowly choking the life out of
18:18an opponent
18:19at slowly suffocating them into submission. This is a team that wins one nil, two nil, and it's a
18:26dominant two nil or a dominant one nil. But they don't score enough goals for me to back any one
18:34particular goal scorer. You could get Lautaro. You could get Messi. You could get anybody.
18:39So I take the under in Argentina games because they are so good at just slowly suffocating a game away.
18:48Kyle, Friday night, we have US taking on Australia. I know that Kristen Pulisic has been somewhat of a
18:54story here with his injury status. But the way Team USA looked in their first match, I would expect
19:00nothing less against Australia. This could be actually the run that a lot of folks have been
19:05looking for. It is. I, Christian Pulisic should be fit for the game. It looks like he's going to be
19:10okay. I, you know, took a deep dive into what Australia looks like. They, I expect a similar
19:17result from the US. They are just not good enough tactically. And the US's strengths match up with
19:23Australia's weaknesses extremely well. It's going to be when the US faces a pressing team that I'm going to
19:28start to worry. But this one should go well. All right, Kyle, enjoy the matches today. We'll catch
19:33up again soon. That's Kyle Bond of Sporting News. We'll be right back to wrap it up.
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