00:00This Thursday kicks off the World Cup.
00:02Now, also, Thursday, the U.S. does not play.
00:05They play Friday, 9 p.m. Eastern versus Paraguay.
00:09Take a look at this, Joe.
00:10If we look at the Cal State marketplace, chance to win this game, USA, 50%.
00:17Paraguay, 24%.
00:18Tie, 28%.
00:20Let me tell you something right now.
00:21U.S. comes out Friday night, takes the loss to Paraguay.
00:24You got to be kidding me, Joe.
00:26Are you back in the U.S.?
00:28Is the U.S. going to tie, or this is a must-win game?
00:31And also, if you like conspiracy theories, the ratings are higher the longer the U.S. stays into it.
00:36Can't lose to Paraguay here, can we?
00:39Well, no.
00:40I mean, Donnie, but you should also be looking at them winning the group as well.
00:45So, yes, they should be able to handle business here.
00:49But I think maybe some of the better competition down the road might be an issue for Team USA.
00:55But I am banking and betting the fact that they should be able to handle the first couple of matches
01:02coming their way here in the group stage.
01:04Yeah, no park in the bus in this one here, right?
01:07Let's get some goals.
01:08And by the way, both teams to score, Joe, you can use that on the Cal State marketplace.
01:12That's currently a yes contract of $0.15, which means $100 investment pays back $6.67.
01:18If both teams score a single goal in this game, we'll see if that works out.
01:22But certainly different ways that you can invest, absolutely, which include, Joe, the golden ball winner.
01:27So what is that?
01:27I never heard of that before.
01:28It's actually the best player in the World Cup, which if I'm listed here,
01:32Lamine Yamal for Spain, 13%, Joe.
01:36Mbappe for France, 11%.
01:38Harry Kane for England, 9%.
01:41And look at who shows up next there at 9%.
01:43Lionel Messi as well, Joe.
01:45Who gets the golden ball for you?
01:49I mean, you've got a couple of different guys that you can go with.
01:53But how do you not go with Mbappe, right?
01:55I mean, most people believe that France are going to be right there anyway.
02:00So, and he is, he's also one of the most hated guys too, which is very strange.
02:05But yeah, I think maybe he is, he is the guy to beat here unless something crazy happens.
02:11How about Erling Haaland, who scores like three goals a game?
02:15It feels like the past couple of years are there in the EPL.
02:17He's at a 2% chance and a 3% contract, which means you think he does some damage for
02:22Norway?
02:23$100 investment pays back $334.
02:26How about the golden glove winner?
02:28Now, Joe, we've heard the golden gloves right here in the United States.
02:30Like, that means who can throw best hands here in state competitions.
02:34That's not what that means on the World Cup level, Joe.
02:36It means who's the best goalie out here?
02:38Emiliano Martinez, Argentina, the favorite, at a 20% chance, Joe.
02:43Don't cry for me, Argentina.
02:45Apparently, they got a good goalie.
02:48Yeah, got a great goalie here, Donnie.
02:51And the market is telling you to have them at price up at the top here.
02:56You got to love it.
02:57Goals are going to be hard to come by, mostly because the defense they play, too, is pretty stifling here.
03:03You don't get a ton of shots on them, but the ones that you do usually is really good at
03:07making sure they don't hit the back of the net.
03:09Now, who's the goalie for the U.S. over here?
03:12Is it Tim, whatever his name is, or we move on from that guy?
03:15Is he too old at this point?
03:17I'm trying to go over the website right now to see.
03:19Do we know who that is?
03:20Let me see.
03:21I'm fairly certain.
03:23I know who you're talking.
03:24I'm pretty sure he is no longer on the team there.
03:28Oh, there we go.
03:29I've got the three.
03:29I can tell you, Donnie, if they win a couple of games, especially ones where they're underdogs, everybody's going to
03:35remember his name.
03:37All right, you've got three of them, Joe, listed on the roster, Chris Brady, Matt Freese, and Matt Turner.
03:42So, two Matts and one Chris here to see if they can get the job done.
03:46Just advance out of the group stage, man.
03:49That's all we're asking for at this point, which means World Cup final qualifiers.
03:54The two teams with the heavy action, Joe, España, 29%, France, 28%, England, 21%, Argentina, 19%.
04:03You've got some nice splits at the top, but the name that just keeps coming up the most here is
04:09Spain, Joe.
04:11Spain's there a lot here, Donnie, but it's going to be – the path is not easy.
04:18And when you look at these types of markets, Donnie, it's really not about who actually wins it and who
04:24do you think has maybe the easiest path to get there.
04:28And that's really what it's all about.
04:30I still think it's France.
04:32So, yeah, you're going to have to go through France in order to win anything here, and I still think
04:37they make it to the finals.
04:38Yeah, and also, you know, the same things that we always talk about in the investment markets here.
04:42You don't have to actually get to the final here to make some money, which means if Team USA, which
04:48currently listed, Joe, at a 5% chance in a trading market of $0.04,
04:52which means a $100 investment pays back $2,500 if they do actually make it into the World Cup final.
04:57But I guarantee you this, if they make it out of the group stage, that number is automatically going to
05:02go higher than a yes of a 4% here,
05:04and that in turn could be profitable at this point.
05:07Some other teams that would be in the same bracket as them, Turkey, $100 investment pays back $2,500 on
05:12a yes for –
05:12somebody's got to win that, you know, grouping, and if they do, those numbers will certainly improve by the time
05:17you even get to the World Cup final,
05:19which means, Joe, who's actually going to win the World Cup here at this point?
05:24And again, coming up here up top, this is close.
05:2616.5% chance, that's Spain.
05:3016.2% chance, that's France.
05:33Those two names we're hearing a lot about before this tournament kicks off on Thursday, Joe.
05:39Yeah, and you're going to continue to hear about them because they are clearly the two most experienced, have the
05:45most depth, Donnie,
05:47and it should not shock any of us if that's what we're going to get there.
05:52But, you know, listen, I still think France is the team to beat here.
05:56I think you can – there's a couple of underdogs along the way worth looking at,
06:01but if we're talking about overall winner, I just don't think it makes any sense to try to fade France
06:07at this point.
06:08No, and again, you're looking at the favorites up here.
06:11Certainly the cream is going to rise to the top at this point.
06:13Will there be upsets?
06:14Absolutely.
06:15Brazil listed there under 8%.
06:17Germany, who opened up against the United States in a friendly at Soldier Field.
06:21They beat them 2-1.
06:22Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, and away we go down in the U.S., Joe.
06:26We talked about a 5% chance to make it into the World Cup final.
06:30How about to win the World Cup final here for Team USA?
06:33$100 investment pays back $6,250.
06:36It feels like it should be more than that, though, doesn't it?
06:39Like, I understand, you know, $100 with that huge pay out there, but a late chance for USA.
06:44Can we catch home pitch advantage, Joe, and make our way through?
06:48That would be incredible to write that.
06:50Like, remember 1980?
06:51Hey, these college kids ain't got no shot against the Russians.
06:54Maybe they got a shot, Joe.
06:55Who knows?
06:57Yeah, no.
06:58No, they don't.
06:59What we can hope for, though, Donnie, is, again, win the group, get there, and who knows?
07:04Anything is possible.
07:06But if you don't win the group and don't advance, yeesh, it's going to be rough here for Team USA.
07:15Yeah, you know what I don't want to see, though, Joe?
07:17Don't get me into the World Cup final and decide this thing by penalty shots.
07:21Have them go all night if they need to go all night at this point.
07:24And also, like, give it the sudden death.
07:26Like, go to the 90 minutes plus five minutes injury time.
07:28Go sudden death after that.
07:29Somebody's going to score people.
07:31Just the way it's done.
07:32World Cup action begins Thursday.
07:34The grid, the place to be.
07:35One more segment of PME coming up next.
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