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In this episode of News Track, Maria Shaquille discusses the escalating tensions in the Middle East as Israel and Iran exchange strikes following Israel's operation in Beirut and Iran's missile response.
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00:00Good evening, you're watching NewsTrack and our top focus tonight is the West Asia war.
00:05Fresh escalation in the conflict as both Israel and Iran have struck each other.
00:10Iran has said its attacks were meant as a warning,
00:15cautioning that any further Israeli action will invite a much harsher response.
00:20But Israel did not stop. It hit back.
00:23Following Iran's missile barrage, Israel launched a major offensive.
00:29Targeting multiple locations across Iran, including Isfahan, the Breeze,
00:35Meherabad Airport and Maheshahar.
00:38Amid the escalating conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump has warned both sides to immediately stop shooting, quote-unquote.
00:45He insists that he is calling the shots.
00:49Yet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears determined to pursue his military objectives despite calls for restraint.
00:57So is Washington losing its leverage over Israel?
01:02Can Iran enforce a ceasefire?
01:05In fact, can Trump enforce a ceasefire?
01:10Can Donald Trump seal a deal with Tehran?
01:12Donald Trump is saying stop.
01:15But will Bibi really listen?
01:17And with both sides trading threats and strikes, is the region headed for a wider war?
01:22Before I bring in the guests, here's a report on everything that has unfolded so far.
01:31At a time when the West Asia war seemed almost over and a deal according to Donald Trump was likely
01:38close,
01:38Israel and the Iran exchange fresh strikes on Monday, plunging the region into deep crisis.
01:47The U.S. President, in a Truth Social post, urged the two nations to stop the attack.
01:53Following the post, Iran's military halted strikes against Israel but warned it would resume if Israel continues its military operation
02:01in Lebanon.
02:03Earlier, President Trump, during a phone call with Benjamin Netanyahu, urged the Israeli Prime Minister to show restraint.
02:11As signs of divide between the U.S. and Israel emerge in an interview to Financial Times,
02:17Trump insisted it was only the U.S. President who's calling all the shots.
02:24And how close are you to making a deal? Are we talking about days, weeks, months, Mr. President?
02:28I think we're very close. We have a couple of points. They don't even seem like big points.
02:33They've conceded the fact that they will not have nuclear weapons.
02:36We had a clause in there that we will not develop nuclear weapons.
02:40And everybody was very happy with it except me.
02:42And I said, well, what happens if they not develop, but they go out and purchase, they acquire?
02:51I want to put the word, if they buy or purchase or acquire, you know, you've got to have that
02:56in there too, because that's not developing.
02:59The strikes are taking place at a time when Iran has already threatened to retaliate if Israel continues its attacks
03:07on Lebanon.
03:09As the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues to affect the global economy, Iran has threatened to block another
03:16major choke point,
03:18Bab al-Mandev's Strait, to inflict more pain to the world economy and put pressure on U.S.
03:25Yemen's Yuti's rebel backed Iran's threats, saying they would ban Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea.
03:34We declare a complete and total ban on Israeli enemy maritime navigation in the Red Sea.
03:40And we consider all enemy movements to be military targets for our armed forces.
03:45For the moment, this statement is issued.
03:50Meanwhile, Israel hit a petrochemical company in the Iranian city of Maashahar.
03:56While no casualties were reported, potential losses and damages are still to be assessed.
04:02In retaliation, Iran's IRGC said it attacked a petrochemical plant in Israel's Haifa, along with two military bases.
04:12The extent of damage at all three sites remains unclear.
04:23The United States bears clear responsibility as a part to the April 8th ceasefire understanding.
04:30Whatever happens in the region, whether the U.S. itself violates the ceasefire, Iranian commercial vessels and incursions against the
04:38southern regions of the country,
04:40or whether such violations are carried out by the Zionist regime in Lebanon or through its coordination with the United
04:46States in our region.
04:48The direct responsibility of the United States is unequivocal, and the consequences of any escalations of tensions will also rest
04:57with the United States.
05:05Following Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel, a large missile fragment was seen wedged in the ground near the
05:12city of Jericho in the occupied West Bank.
05:15Explosions could be heard in central Israel as air defenses sought to intercept incoming Iranian projectiles.
05:22Missile sirens also sounded across neighboring Jordan.
05:27With more strikes expected from the Iranian side, Israel has shut schools in Jerusalem and Haifa.
05:34Residents are seeking shelter in basements for safety.
05:38In another post on Truth Social, President Trump said, Israel and Iran are looking to do an immediate ceasefire.
05:47Final negotiations on peace are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way.
05:53He added that the blockade at the State of Hormuz remains in place until a final deal is signed.
05:59With Mahashwet Alala, Bureau Report, India Today.
06:05And joining me first on the show is Dr. Sayyad Imamian.
06:09He is the professor at Tehran Polytechnic University.
06:12He's joining me from Tehran.
06:15Professor, from Iran's viewpoint, how does the latest exchange, missile barrages and Israeli counter strikes,
06:24affect the fragile April ceasefire and the ongoing U.S. brokered talks?
06:29Does Tehran see any pathway to a durable agreement or has trust been completely eroded?
06:38First of all, I would like to contextualize the situation.
06:43As you know, Iran has been attacked twice once the negotiation was going on in the last one year.
06:53It's now almost a year that Iran has been always witnessing a kind of a betrayal to diplomacy by the
06:59U.S.
07:00So this is a very deep distrust between Iran and U.S.
07:04And the ceasefire that happened after 40 days' war started in February 28th was based on a kind of a
07:15ceasefire in all fronts,
07:17including Lebanon, as part of the deal, as part of the first deal.
07:23As you know, as you may have heard, the draft of the deal that is now on the table between
07:30Iran and U.S.,
07:31phase-based deal, that the first phase is talking about ending the war,
07:36is also talking about the ceasefire in Lebanon clearly as part of the end of the war deal.
07:46So it has been since the first day that Iran has been thinking about the ceasefire in Lebanon,
07:54in Yemen, and in Iraq as part of the regional end of the war,
07:59because the war was regional and the ceasefire should also be regional.
08:03But what has happened is, again, a violation of the deal,
08:08so it has created another level of the mistrust and distrust between Iran and U.S.
08:13Okay, but Professor Miamian, here there is an involvement of Hezbollah,
08:18and the axis of resistance has once again pulled Iran into direct confrontation.
08:23Then how sustainable is the strategy for Iran amidst economic pressures,
08:28internal challenges, and the Strait of Hormuz dynamics?
08:32You know that Hezbollah is firstly defending their dignity and the sovereignty of Lebanon.
08:41So Hezbollah has been in war with Israelis because they have been attacked.
08:48And always, even during the ceasefire between the war in 2024 and now,
08:53always they have been almost daily attacked by Israelis and daily assassination of the Lebanese civilians.
09:02So it has been Hezbollah's national, I think, agenda,
09:08rather than just being part of what's called the axis of resistance.
09:12But at the same time, because Hezbollah has joined Iran to defend the whole regional peace
09:20against the Israelis' expansionism and aggression,
09:23so Iran has been very much keen and clear since the beginning
09:27that any ceasefire should include Hezbollah.
09:30And you know what is happening now in the south part of the Iran and Persian Gulf
09:34with regards to the Strait of the Hormuz is also a result,
09:38a very direct result of the aggression and violation of the international order
09:44by Iranian national security by Americans.
09:48So Iran is going to use that geopolitical leverage
09:51just to protect its national security rather than anything else.
09:54Okay. Professor Imanian, my last question.
09:57Looking ahead, what would a responsible off-ramp look like
10:00for all parties to prevent a full regional war?
10:04And what role does Iran envision for itself in stabilizing West Asia?
10:11Of course, Iran has been very much clear that Iran doesn't have any problem with anyone in the region.
10:19Iran, it's very important to know that for the whole regional actors,
10:25it's very much now common understanding that the main source of insecurity
10:31is the Israelis' expansionism and aggression.
10:36It started particularly in the last two years, since October 7, by genocide in Gaza.
10:42And they are talking about the greater Israel.
10:45That means very outspoken about their ambition to violate the sovereignty of other countries,
10:53including Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.
10:57So it's very concerning for everyone.
10:59So Iran is looking for having a kind of the regional resistance against such kind of the aggression
11:07and expansionism.
11:09And I think from the Iranian point of view, the situation won't be secure unless the Israelis
11:18have been contained by their most important ally, that is U.S.
11:22So it's Trump's round now to contain the Israeli aggression,
11:28and particularly Benjamin Netanyahu's political ambition for unlimited and infinite war in the region.
11:36All right, Professor Miammeyan, really appreciate your time.
11:39Thank you for joining us.
11:41Pleasure. Thank you.
11:47And some piece of breaking news coming in now after Donald Trump pushed for Iran-Israel ceasefire.
11:54Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel is holding off attacks.
11:58In a televised statement, he describes Iran and Hezbollah as weaker than ever,
12:03and has said that Israel is holding off attacks on Iran for now,
12:07but has suggested a fight with them is not yet over.
12:11And to quote the president here,
12:16at the moment, the fire is contained because Israel has responded to Iran's strikes, he says.
12:24And he says that if Iran makes the mistake and attacks us again,
12:29we will respond forcefully, adding that Israel has full right to self-defense,
12:34and we exercise it to the extent necessary.
12:37Netanyahu also mentioned his conversations with U.S. President Donald Trump,
12:41who he is known to have spoken to since strikes began on Sunday.
12:46Is there some kind of miscommunication happening between the two?
12:50Pranay Upadhyay is joining us.
12:51Pranay Upadhyay, are they not on the same page and why are they not on the same page?
12:58Obviously, they have their own political compulsions.
13:01Maria, you know that both President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
13:06are approaching towards election.
13:08President Donald Trump would soon be facing midterm elections.
13:11His party would be facing midterm elections in November.
13:13And in October, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will again be contesting for the Prime Ministership
13:18and Israel will be going for a general election.
13:21And in fact, this Iranian operation, this Iranian attack on the Israeli territory
13:27has put a lot of pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
13:31And you could see in his statement, he said that I cannot let it happen under my watch.
13:36No way this is acceptable for Israel.
13:38And that's why we had to respond to this strike carried out by Iran.
13:44And certainly, President Donald Trump want to get out of this Iran situation as soon as possible.
13:50In fact, they are using, you know, Pakistanis for the mediation process.
13:55You know that entire thing.
13:57But on the other side, for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this is a half-finished business.
14:03He always wanted this entire operation to either take it to some kind of a logical conclusion,
14:12logical conclusion as in either there should be a regime change in Iran which did not happen
14:17or the decapitation of the Iranian military capabilities which also did not happen
14:24because if at the middle of this ceasefire, if Iran could hit back or hit at the Israeli territory,
14:31this clearly shows that Iran is still holding the missile firepower
14:35and its drones are still able to fly and hit at various locations.
14:39So, this is certainly an alarming situation.
14:41And in fact, this also puts a lot of, a big question mark on what exactly United States and Iran
14:48has,
14:48and Israel has achieved in this, in this entire 40-day conflict.
14:53And even after the 60-day ceasefire, which is very fragile, which is very volatile,
14:58the question remains that, you know, who is the custodian of this ceasefire,
15:02how this ceasefire can be turned into or can be brought to a diplomatic solution to this entire problem.
15:08This remains a larger question, Maria.
15:10All right, Pranay, I appreciate your time.
15:12Thank you for that latest update.
15:16Joining me now is Michael Patrick.
15:18He is the president of Foxborough LLC, Loeb Institute,
15:22former deputy assistant secretary of defense, retired CIA and U.S. Marine.
15:27He is joining me from Washington.
15:29And Professor Dr. Jangir is the professor and director at General School of International Affairs.
15:35Appreciate both of your time here.
15:39Let me begin with you, Mr. Mulroy.
15:41The U.S. has urged restraint after this latest flare-up of direct Iran-Israel strikes.
15:47From your experience in the Pentagon, how concerned are you that the Beirut Hezbollah trigger could unravel the April ceasefire
15:55entirely?
15:55And what more can Washington do to enforce de-escalation?
16:02So good to be with you, the professor, and your audience.
16:05I would be concerned right now because this is essentially out of the U.S. control.
16:10There's influence that the U.S. has over Israel, but we are putting them in a very difficult position.
16:18So Iran has tied regional ceasefires to the overall requirement for this to essentially come to an end.
16:26At the same time, Hezbollah, their proxy organization, refuses to join the ceasefire with Israel and continues to attack them.
16:34So they are going to attack back.
16:37They're obviously not going to just be attacked and not respond and not defend themselves.
16:41And then Iran attacks them and then they're going to attack Iran even over the request of them not to
16:47by President Trump.
16:48So if it is included, because the United States doesn't get to decide by itself what's included in the discussions,
16:54then it's going to be very difficult to see how this comes to an end because Iran is asking for
17:01it but doing nothing to facilitate it.
17:03Okay, Professor Jangir, Israel conducted strikes in Iran after Iran's missile response to the Beirut operation.
17:11How do you assess Israel's military and strategic calculus here?
17:15Has it really achieved its deterrence goals or does this risk a new cycle of attrition?
17:23Thank you, Maria.
17:25Israel has been trying to get the deterrence against Hezbollah for the last two weeks.
17:31I remember a week back, Donald Trump spoke and leaked that call with Netanyahu where he used heavy and expletive
17:41words against Netanyahu.
17:42So I think Netanyahu thought, and this is what Israel's defense establishment, larger discipline, he's not alone on this.
17:51Even the opposition leaders believe that if they have to say no to Donald Trump, they will say no to
17:56Donald Trump.
17:57And that has been the tone here for the last two weeks.
18:01But Donald Trump effectively told them, don't go to Beirut a week back.
18:07And now they went to Beirut and Iran exploited that opportunity.
18:11So I think what's happening is that now Donald Trump and Netanyahu's disagreements are too public.
18:20They are certainly exposed with the conflict of interest.
18:25Netanyahu needs this war to get to some kind of a face-saving exit.
18:30And Donald Trump doesn't need that.
18:33He is much more careful about hormones and the international trade.
18:36So they have a conflict of interest.
18:38One doesn't want the other to get the deal that Trump is after.
18:43So we can see that this situation will now benefit Iranian bargain.
18:50Okay.
18:50Because the two sides are at odds with each other.
18:53But Professor Jangir, coming on this specific point about Israel's standpoint in Tel Aviv,
19:02what are you sensing the immediate security implications are going to be?
19:06And how feasible is separating the Lebanon front from the broader Iran threat?
19:12For Israel, it's really existential.
19:15Think of it.
19:16The north of Israel has a population of 100,000 people, close to 1 lakh.
19:22And these close to 1 lakh people are effectively displaced
19:25because of the drones and the missile attacks by Hezbollah in the last 30, 40 days.
19:34And that population is pressuring hard.
19:37And that's a traditional vote bank of Likud party also.
19:40And that's where the point about Netanyahu's election chances this year also gets into the picture.
19:45But nevertheless, the vote bank, the fact that the north and the people of the north
19:51can't go back to their homes when there is a ceasefire is a big, let's say, disillusionment
19:58with the whole arrangement of the ceasefire.
20:00And I think Iran is really, I mean, this is where its abrasive diplomacy is at full work
20:08that it kept Lebanon out of the ceasefire, but at the cost of the Lebanon, it can break the ceasefire.
20:16I think Donald Trump has been in a way exposed with all his limits.
20:21And now it depends how much he would really have a leverage.
20:25As Patrick said, it has leverage on Israel, but it has zero leverage on Hezbollah.
20:32I think I'll bring in Michael Patrick on that point where you made that Donald Trump today
20:39stands exposed that the Israelis are not listening to him.
20:43Then who really, is he really dictating the direction of the war now and the timeline?
20:50I think, no, he's not.
20:52I mean, obviously we see, we have three entities in this discussion and only one of them appears
20:59to want this war to come to an end and for us to go into a nuclear agreement that would
21:04replace the previous, you know, 2015 JCPOA, and that's the United States.
21:11Iran is not acting as if they want an actual ceasefire and they're not interested in giving
21:17up their nuclear program, which is going to be required for a new nuclear agreement.
21:22Israel has expanded, gone further than they have into Lebanon in the last 26 years.
21:29So they're past the Latani River.
21:31They're taking direct strikes into Beirut, which they have before, but obviously this is
21:36different as President Trump essentially asked him not to do it.
21:39And they don't want to see the war come to an end.
21:42They'd like to see it restarted and for the U.S. and Israel to degrade their military,
21:46strategic military assets even further.
21:50But the U.S. doesn't.
21:52The U.S. has an election coming up.
21:54President Trump wants to maintain control of the House and the Senate.
21:58Right now the Republicans control it.
22:00And the longer this goes on, certainly up to the actual election itself, the less likely
22:05that is because this is a very unpopular war in the United States.
22:09It only has about a 20 percent approval rating, and that's just going to get worse and worse
22:14as the plan goes on.
22:15If Donald Trump doesn't have the leverage anymore, he's saying that Netanyahu is trying
22:21to jeopardize the deal.
22:22Who really is doing the deal making here?
22:25You know, everything seems to be getting complicated with every passing hour.
22:30They entered the war with, you know, it's 100 plus days already.
22:36Every day in the initial days, the goalposts kept shifting, kept moving.
22:43And now he's saying that he's calling the shots, not Netanyahu.
22:47Netanyahu is giving another impression.
22:49He's saying not to strike Iran.
22:51Netanyahu goes ahead and strikes Iran.
22:54Then who is he telling and who is listening to him?
22:59That's a good point.
23:00I mean, the president said that he was calling the shots and he was going to tell Prime Minister
23:04Netanyahu not to respond.
23:06Netanyahu did.
23:08Ultimately, Israel is a sovereign country.
23:11Netanyahu knows if he didn't respond, he was going to get attacked.
23:14And he already was for the even concept that he wouldn't.
23:16From both his right and left.
23:19And likely from the right, which is in his cabinet, they would have dissolved his government.
23:24So he chose, you know, to make that attack, this counterattack.
23:29And now, of course, he's saying he's not going to continue because he's shown that he can he's
23:34going to do that and defend Israel's sovereign right to defend themselves.
23:38But this clearly shows that the person calling the shot is not right now the president of the
23:43United States.
23:44Now, he can make his own decisions.
23:45He can restart the air war.
23:47But I think he knows that that's likely not going to change Iran's perspective and get
23:53him closer to his objectives.
23:54And his objectives start with reopening the Strait of Hormuz, of which he cannot pay Iran
24:01to do, or that will be considered a strategic failure by the United States.
24:05Of course, it wasn't closed before the war.
24:08And then he has to get into an agreement that's more restrictive than the one that he elected
24:12to pull out in 2018.
24:14Or there's going to be a lot of criticism for why he did that in the first place.
24:19And he understands that.
24:20So, he's in a tough position.
24:22You know, it's a war which is taking new twists and turns.
24:27It is completely in an unpredictable zone now.
24:31We do not know who has the leverage, except for Iran, which visibly has the leverage in
24:37this war.
24:37Between Donald Trump and Israel, the equations are also shifting with every passing day.
24:43So, Dr. Jangit and Michael, really appreciate it.
24:46Thank you so much for speaking to us.
24:48So, that's all from you on this edition of NewsTrack.
24:50I'll be seeing you tomorrow.
24:51Thanks all for watching.
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