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Grant & Danny analyze the Nats taking another series out west. Will this team play at this pace all year and actually have an outside chance at the postseason?
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00:00I want to get into the Nats, though.
00:02I love this team.
00:04This team is an absolute blast to watch every single night.
00:08How good of late-night Nats been, Darius?
00:11Keeping us up.
00:11Now, last night was a little too late.
00:13That was a long baseball game out west.
00:16I was scuffling.
00:18That game ended at about 1 in the morning.
00:21I stayed up for it, regrettably.
00:23Probably shouldn't have.
00:25But they're worth it, man.
00:26This team is worth staying up for.
00:30Another win, two in a row in San Francisco.
00:33Chance for a sweep at the Giants today.
00:35They're 4-1 on this road trip as they get ready to play the sixth and final game
00:39before flying home to D.C.
00:41And they are over .500.
00:43And here's what's amazing about your 2026 Nationals right now, Danny.
00:47As of this moment, they are a wildcard team.
00:50They're actually tied for the final wildcard spot with the Giants and the Diamondbacks.
00:54But by way of head-to-head, not the Giants, rather, sorry.
00:58They're tied with the Diamondbacks and the Padres.
01:01But by way of head-to-head, they have the tiebreaker over those two teams.
01:06So they would be the last team in with the Cardinals and the Phillies in the wildcard
01:09and currently have a 12% chance.
01:12Just insane.
01:13When the season started, it was .1%.
01:15They have a 12% chance to make the playoffs.
01:18Now, I know new baseball is different, but just bear with me.
01:21In time and memoriam, you pretty much would universally guarantee
01:24the best hitter on the team is your three-hole hitter, right?
01:28Now, I know we know more, and a lot of those guys will hit second
01:31or maybe some guys lead off in James Wood's case or whatever.
01:34Still, that three-hole, there's a romanticism to it, right?
01:37That three-hole stick, it's like the most feared hitter.
01:39Jose Tana, last night.
01:42Many games, it's Brady House, who's in AAA.
01:44That's the number one offense in the sport.
01:46That group's a wildcard team.
01:47Jorbit Vivas is going to get 350 at-bats.
01:51Tana's probably going to get 400.
01:53And that group is the wildcard right now.
01:56God, it's fun.
01:57I mean, frankly, it's a little bit stupid.
01:59I don't mean like in a bad way.
02:00I just go, even if they were playing well above reasonable expectations,
02:05they wouldn't be too over 500 at this stage.
02:08Does that make sense?
02:09Like, they'd be a handful of games under,
02:12and they'd be in the hunt graphic where they're seven games back
02:16of the wildcard or something like that.
02:17But they're not.
02:18They're right here tied for a wildcard spot with this group.
02:22God, it's fun.
02:23That's your point.
02:23Because we get these weeks like Luis Garcia just decides,
02:26this is my Babe Ruth week.
02:28I'll just do that.
02:29I'll just homer every other time and drive every baseball.
02:32And when I don't hit it hard, it's a service dog,
02:35a 19 hopper into right field for an RBI single.
02:37It's amazing.
02:38The part that's confounding or fun or flummoxing or, you know,
02:42you called stupid or whatever to me has nothing to do with the offense
02:45or the lineup, to be honest.
02:47Because even though they probably, based on the personnel that you went through,
02:51don't look like the number one offense in the sport,
02:53when you've got two guys playing at a fringe MVP level in James Wood and C.J. Abrams,
02:58and you've got a couple other guys having good seasons like Curtis Mead and Dalen Lyle,
03:03and then you've got guys having career years like Jacob Young and K.Bert Ruiz who are pitching in,
03:08you're going to be fine offensively.
03:10You're going to be plenty solid enough, right?
03:12What's amazing to me is the pitching staff,
03:15which is put together with duct tape and bubble gum,
03:19has allowed them, despite being the worst in the sport for the vast majority of the first few months of
03:24the year,
03:25to still play at about a 500 clip.
03:29And in this case now, with these consecutive wins over the Giants,
03:32they are 35-33, two over 500.
03:34If they win today, they'll be three games over 500 for the first time
03:37since the end of the 2019 season when they were winning a World Series.
03:42Seven years ago.
03:43But last night's starter was Andrew Alvarez,
03:46who's not even a high-end prospect.
03:48When he's in AAA, there are times where he pitches well.
03:50There are times where he gets shellacked in the minor leagues, routinely.
03:54Alvarez, five hits, two runs.
03:56They both scored, by the way, after he left the game in the fifth inning,
03:59inherited runners against Brad Lord.
04:00He didn't give up a run.
04:02There were runners at third all night long.
04:03It was a microcosm to me of his entire career.
04:06I don't really know how he keeps getting out of all these jams.
04:08I don't either.
04:09I don't know how he's missing the bats that he is.
04:11It's pure stuff, that's how.
04:12Right.
04:13A lot of breaking balls, sliders, curveballs,
04:15vast majority of the pitches he throws.
04:17The slider's actually very good.
04:18And he got 12 outs last night and got them to the bullpen.
04:22And then Brad Lord, who's been phenomenal.
04:24I think he's the unsung hero of the team.
04:26We know about Wood and Abrams and then guys that hit the ball over the fence like, you
04:32know, Curtis Mead or Jacob Young this year or Jacob Ruth.
04:35You know, those guys get their credit when they hit their home runs or they do something
04:38offensively.
04:39Lyle, when he wins the game against the Reds or comes up with a big hit against the Giants
04:42in the ninth, gets his flowers.
04:44Brad Lord almost never does.
04:45He's not a starter.
04:46He's not an opener.
04:47He pitches in relief, generally in bulk, two plus innings at a time.
04:50Last night it was two and two third innings.
04:52He is 4-0 with a 2-3-0 ERA.
04:55So coming out of spring training or in spring training, I advocated for him winning one
04:58of the starting jobs.
04:59I thought they would be better if he was one of their five rotational starters.
05:03He's too important as a linchpin.
05:04And again, it stinks for him and his career arc because once he hits free agency or as
05:11a commodity, people would think more of him.
05:13But this swing role, whatever you want to call it, as you said, the bridge or the,
05:17hey, it's two batters tonight, it's four innings tomorrow night, it's whatever you're doing,
05:22you're a fireman, old school style, it's too valuable for this team.
05:25It is.
05:26This is a super analytical, like the Rays have done this, the Brewers have done this,
05:29where you've got starters, and if you're good enough, it's no different than James
05:33Wood.
05:34You're not platooning your really good hitters, okay?
05:36So if you just had five guys like the Dodgers currently do, where you could just trot them
05:40out there and say, go pitch seven innings, Shohei, we won't mess with you, then you
05:44would do that.
05:45So on the night where Cade Cavalli pitches, he's in it to win it.
05:49He's going to go out there and give you innings tonight, or today, as they play in San Francisco
05:53for Foster Griffin, who's been arguably their best pitcher with a 3-6 ERA.
05:58He's giving them depth.
05:59He's 72 innings into his season on 13 starts at this point.
06:03He'll get 18 outs if he's pitching well.
06:05They'll let him pitch in to the seventh.
06:07It's not like they don't believe in anybody facing the order the third time through or something
06:12like that.
06:13But when you have Miles Michaelis and you have Zach Littell and you have Andrew Alvarez
06:18making up the rest of your rotation, then the goal is four innings, essentially.
06:22Five innings.
06:23So what do you need?
06:24It becomes very important to have relievers that can work multiple innings in your bullpen,
06:29and you effectively have like seven or eight guys that are starting type pitchers.
06:33If you're counting Alvarez, Parker, Lorde, you know, those types of guys that are multi-inning
06:39arms.
06:40And you piggyback generally Michaelis with a lefty or Littell with an arm.
06:45But Lorde, he won't make an all-star team this year because his numbers, you know, are
06:50just not going to be dominant enough.
06:51There's nothing that's going to overly stand out.
06:53But he's pitching at that level.
06:54When you pitch to a 2-3 ERA, when you have a whip barely over one, this is, by the
06:59way,
06:59the last regime's greatest draft success over the last seven or eight years, probably.
07:04You know he was an 18th round pick?
07:06He was drafted outside of the top 500 back in 2022.
07:10We screamed for years that they didn't have success stories like this.
07:13The Mike Rizzo group, they just did not hit on enough draft picks.
07:17And they did with Lorde.
07:19He pitched well for them at the end of their time.
07:20And this new staff has taken over and he's helped them.
07:23But again, last night, I thought he was a key.
07:27You mentioned Luis Garcia's two-run homer.
07:29How many times?
07:29It's been three in the last five days.
07:31But how many times this season have they been up 2-0 two batters into a game?
07:35Because Wood got on or homered, and then the guy behind him got on and somebody knocked
07:39him in.
07:41You sit down 10 minutes into a game and they're up a couple runs every time you turn around.
07:45The guys are getting their hot dogs.
07:46They turn around and a smattering of fans are cheering because the Nats are already on
07:49the board.
07:50Especially on the road, it feels like.
07:51That's just been their MO.
07:52They just put pressure on people.
07:54It really is amazing.
07:55And again, last night, you referenced a couple of the guys that have been having outstanding
07:59seasons for them.
08:00No impact from C.J. Abrams.
08:02I mean, I guess he ended up reaching on a field of choice or something, but didn't do
08:06much of the dish.
08:07You got nothing from the three spot, from a bunch of the guys that have been kind of the
08:12success stories.
08:13But it's somebody else every night is kind of a long way of getting to that point.
08:17It's a, some that it's an Asim Nunez bunt, or Drew Millis breaks up the no-hitter, or
08:21you know, Jacob Young, who's had a renaissance season for himself.
08:24You know, it really is, you keep passing the baton because you know the next guy's going
08:29to do something.
08:29It may not be the, you know, the home run.
08:32It may not be like the Cleveland Indians in the, you know, right around 2000 when they
08:35hit 5 million homers and the whole lineup at 30.
08:37It's not that, but it's a constant team, pressure on the opponent, waves crashing on
08:44the shore, and eventually we're going to get to you.
08:46Now, again, sometimes it doesn't work out where you load the bases and somebody lines
08:50out.
08:50But this is such a good process-oriented group that you're getting this level of success
08:55without some of the stardom.
08:56You're right.
08:5714 base runners last night.
08:58Yeah.
08:599 hits and 5 walks for this offense.
09:02And, you know, I keep coming back to, because I think there's this feeling nationally, I
09:07see it on MLB Network when I watch them talk about the Nats.
09:09I hear it sometimes when, you know, national radio shows are talking about them.
09:14It's like, this team's made up of a bunch of nobodies.
09:19You don't understand how good James Wood is.
09:21You don't get what kind of year CJ Abrams is having.
09:24They have two of the top 14 players in terms of OPS in Major League Baseball.
09:29The Yankees can relate to that with Ben Rice and Aaron Judge.
09:33Nobody else can.
09:34You know, you're talking about two fringe top 10 OPS guys in the sport in the same lineup.
09:39That ain't nothing.
09:41You know, that's almost a quarter.
09:43That's 22% of the lineup are the top 10 players in the sport, basically, at this point.
09:48And they're smart enough.
09:50I would have them stacked together.
09:51They don't.
09:52And so there's, you know, in the first inning you're dealing with Wood, generally in the
09:55second inning or innings apart you're dealing with him and Abrams, or if people are
09:59on base, maybe Abrams was coming up in that spot.
10:01They've done it very well.
10:02Ani Kolombi and Blake Butera putting the lineup together have been very successful all year
10:07long.
10:07Jason's in Woodbridge.
10:08Jason wants to hop in.
10:10The Nats, chance for their second sweep of the season.
10:13They've actually had chances to sweep the Reds, Orioles, Guardians, Diamondbacks in the
10:17last month and haven't pulled it off after taking the first two games of a series.
10:21So we'll see if they can make this sweep number two of the year.
10:23They swept the Brewers early on.
10:25What's up, Jason?
10:28Hey, buddy.
10:29Hey, guys.
10:29I just want to say welcome to the team.
10:31We're going to the World Series.
10:33You dismissed me a week ago, but I think you guys are coming on board.
10:38All we need is a closer and we're lights out.
10:42We finally have hitting.
10:43If you have hitting, anything is possible.
10:46It's been years since we've been able to hit and score runs.
10:49All we need is a closer and we're like, we won like seven more games.
10:53Sometimes we would be having just, oh my God, we're on the way.
10:57I appreciate you, buddy.
10:58Thank you, dude.
10:59Put that on a t-shirt.
11:01If you have hitting, anything is possible.
11:03Anything is possible.
11:04It's true.
11:04It's like in football, we talk about this.
11:06If you're going to score 30 points most times you play, you're going to win a lot of
11:10football games doing that, right?
11:11In football, if you're going to score five to seven runs every time out, I don't care what
11:16the expectation was coming into the year.
11:18You're going to finish first a lot.
11:20You got a chance to win some games.
11:20I think that's the point of that.
11:22Yeah, I think they're more than maybe a closer away from being a World Series team, but I'd
11:26rather have that enthusiasm than, well, the games are all going to get raided out and
11:31everyone's going to pull a hamstring.
11:32I'd rather have that.
11:34I don't know when he says, I think you guys are getting on board.
11:37I don't know what he's referencing.
11:38Is he saying that this team can win the World Series?
11:41Because I'm not boarding that track.
11:42And we're coming around to that fact?
11:44Is that what the...
11:44I'm not.
11:45Now, here is what I will acknowledge.
11:47We did talk about this.
11:48He said a week ago, it was two or three weeks ago, we started having these conversations
11:52about the trade deadline and CJ Abrams and should they be buyers.
11:55And at that time, I said, in a few weeks, we'll probably look back at this as the high
12:01watermark of the season and say, that was fun while it lasted.
12:05And they have continued to not only play at the pace that they were at, but they're better.
12:10They are now two over 500 and with a chance against one of the worst teams in the league
12:14today to get to three over 500.
12:16They are, for the first time all season, as we talk right now, a wildcard team.
12:22The Washington Nationals, if the playoffs started right now, are in the wildcard.
12:27Now, they don't.
12:28And I don't think they will be in the playoffs.
12:29I will stick by that.
12:31This is not a playoff roster.
12:32And six months and 162 games are designed that way for a reason.
12:36We weed out the teams that should be there from the teams that shouldn't.
12:39And the back of the baseball card theory takes hold.
12:42But here is what I will offer.
12:45If in three weeks, they are still over 500 and now it's the all-star break and we're three
12:51weeks away from the trade deadline, we're going to have a different conversation on this
12:54show where I'm going to be saying, I agree with the long-term plan and the big picture
12:59plan.
13:00It's a good plan.
13:01Don't trade anybody that matters long-term.
13:03But let's get some relief pitching help here.
13:05You know, let's, maybe you flip a Luis Garcia or somebody like that and you bring up an
13:11Abimelech Ortiz to play first base.
13:13Or perhaps you move, you know, one of your other veteran players and you can supplant from
13:19the minor leagues, but you go get some pitching to see if maybe you could further navigate these
13:25rocky waters of the second half of the season.
13:27I think what's most likely is they win 77, you know, 78 games, something like that, which
13:34is funny to talk about.
13:35Amazing.
13:36I still, as of two weeks ago, I think I had them at 74, 75, but let's say they're in
13:40the
13:4176 to 78 win range and they're hovering around 500 longer than we thought.
13:45Gigantic victory.
13:47But you absolutely cannot trade CJ Abrams if you don't fall off.
13:52You can't do it.
13:53You've got to revisit that in the off season.
13:55It would be criminal to trade him with this team over 500 and then walk into that clubhouse
14:00and say, hey guys, good luck tonight.
14:01We'll never guess what we just did.
14:03And on top of that, if they're two or three over 500 at the all-star break or thereafter
14:09into July, a month from now, Danny, we do need to start talking about shirking convention,
14:15not worrying about where we thought they would be, should be, and talking about how do they
14:20add without mortgaging anything from the more important future.
14:23Yeah, can you scrape around the edges and come up with someone that can help you right now?
14:26Which is a conversation I would have lost every cent.
14:32When we go down to spring training, we're doing bits and we're seeing Nikki Lovelady at
14:36Nick's Diner.
14:37If you'd go, hey, what if at the trade deadline, we're honestly talking about them adding without
14:41hurting the future?
14:42I would have laughed you out of that.
14:44I would have said, you take your waffles to go, young man.
14:45You've had enough.
14:47No way.
14:47But here we are.
14:48It's awesome.
14:49Yeah.
14:50I don't know if the statute of limitations has presented itself yet for me to give all
14:54the details on this story.
14:55But I was talking to an important member of the brass, let's say, out at the backfields
15:01at spring training.
15:02And they're standing next to me.
15:03We're kind of watching ball.
15:05And we were talking about the upcoming season.
15:08And they said, so what are people saying?
15:10Like, what do people back home think about the team?
15:13And I looked at the person and I said, well, they think you guys are here as the Avengers
15:17of nerd baseball to wave a wand over this thing and win 90 games this year and make
15:21the playoffs.
15:22And he kind of looked at me with a straight face, not laughing.
15:25He's like, that's what I'm worried about.
15:28In other words, there was kind of this fear that like, as soon as we get here, everyone
15:33thinks this is just going to be better because now we use analytics and technology.
15:36And that's not how this is going to work.
15:39It's kind of how it's worked.
15:40It's happening.
15:41Yeah.
15:42Now, they will fall off.
15:44And then you had to explain to the person that's a little bit of shtick.
15:46We had to tone down a little bit there.
15:48Yeah.
15:48So we can all chuckle as friends.
15:50No?
15:50Oh, my God.
15:52Let's go to Dan in Fairfax.
15:53What's up, Dan?
15:55Hey, guys.
15:56I never get to talk to you anymore.
15:57What's up, Dan?
15:58What's this, Dan?
15:59Where have you been, man?
16:01I'm never able to get through.
16:02I guess y'all are too busy.
16:04No, we are not too busy.
16:08Well, everybody's talking about the Nationals, so I thought I would call in.
16:11Yeah.
16:12Do you have a Nat song for us, Dan?
16:13Have you ever had a song about the Nats at all?
16:15It's been a while.
16:16Can you give us a Nat song?
16:17I can't remember.
16:18It was so long ago.
16:19It was like, everybody's talking about the Nationals.
16:22The Nationals.
16:23Something like that.
16:24CJ Abrams.
16:25CJ Abrams should make the All-Star team again.
16:28I love James Wood.
16:30Garcia's really doing well.
16:32Lorde.
16:33I like a love lady.
16:34That guy's awesome.
16:35He loves the ladies.
16:36But, yeah, I just think that we really have a chance, maybe even for the playoffs.
16:40I'm not going to say we're going to make the World Series or anything, but I'm really
16:43excited about the Nationals.
16:44But thanks for taking my call, guys.
16:46You got it, man.
16:4712% chance to make the playoffs, according to the ESPN analytics.
16:51Remarkable.
16:52Which seems very high.
16:54But they're currently, someone at home is going, well, they're currently in the playoffs
16:58now.
16:58Why do they only have a 12% chance?
16:59And it's because of the regression that is inevitable.
17:03And other teams, frankly, are good, too.
17:05Right?
17:06There's a whole bunch of baseball to be played.
17:07A whole bunch of, you know, nagging injuries, slumps, ups and downs.
17:11And there are better rosters, frankly, that are probably better able to withstand those
17:15sorts of things.
17:15Well, think about it.
17:16Right now, this second, within a game and a half of the Nationals, behind them, you've
17:23got the Pirates, Cubs, Reds, and Marlins.
17:25Four teams.
17:27Ahead of them, wildcard or tied with you, you've got the Cardinals, Phillies, Diamondbacks,
17:33and Padres.
17:34So that's eight teams that either are in a wildcard spot or within a game and a half of
17:39the Nats with the last wildcard spot.
17:41The problem is not necessarily like one of the three spots or the three teams ahead of
17:49you or whatever.
17:49It's there's nine teams for three jobs.
17:53Think about it.
17:54You're vying for a role that nine people want and they're all kind of right now exactly
17:59equal.
17:59So you've got to be better for the rest of the season than the Phillies, than Arizona,
18:04than the Padres, than the Pirates, than the Cubs, than the Reds, than the Marlins.
18:08Knowing as well, by the way, that the executives in those front offices, you know, in Philadelphia,
18:14they're all in.
18:15They have an old aging team with a closing window.
18:18So if you're running that show, Dave Dombrowski, you're pushing your chips in at the deadline.
18:25Oh, yeah.
18:25Because they're already committed.
18:26Right.
18:26The Diamondbacks, similarly, a few years ago were in the World Series.
18:29They've been spinning their tires.
18:31They're going to be sellers.
18:32Buyers, rather.
18:33The Padres, A.J.
18:34Preller is the most aggressive executive in the sport every single year.
18:37They're going to add.
18:38The Pirates finally spent this offseason a little bit on offense.
18:41They've got skeins on his deal before he leaves.
18:44They're going to be buyers.
18:45The Cubs, it's a huge year for their brass.
18:47So all of those teams are going to be trading four pieces to an extent greater than what
18:52the Nationals will, who don't want to give anything up that matters to them correctly
18:55in 27, 28, 29, when they're hopefully going to be a lot better.
18:59But you know what this year has done more than anything else for me, Danny?
19:02It gives me a lot of hope that they could actually get to the offseason, regroup, and
19:09maybe decide, we don't have to wait two years to spend.
19:12I know it's the lockout or whatever, but on the other side of that, when things ramp up,
19:15free agency starts anew, you could bring in two or three pieces this coming offseason
19:20with some of what's close in the minor leagues, and we can go into next year thinking, this
19:25is a 500 team that might be a wildcard team, rather than the expectation, which was that
19:29next year was going to be kind of like this year, where maybe you can get to 75 wins.
19:34They're probably now a year ahead of schedule, and that gives me hope about 27.
19:38So again, the variables are lockout dependency, what happens with labor stoppage, if and when
19:44it does happen, and the learner question.
19:46That is the question.
19:47If the work turned in by this front office, coaches, everyone else goes, we took a roster
19:53that was basically very similar to a 65-win team, turned it into a, for the sake of argument,
19:59a 78-win team.
20:00Think about what would happen if you gave us an 85-win roster.
20:03That's like something that looks like a starting pitcher, a first baseman, whatever you want
20:07to do.
20:08If you had a couple first division players to go with our young stars, my God, we'd be
20:12a buzzsaw.
20:13We'd be a 90-game winner in a division full of them.
20:16But again, it's a matter of them being able to say, okay, now we're ready to step up.
20:20G&D on the fan next another day, another Brandon Ayuk video gets released.
20:26You're listening to Grant and Dan.
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