00:00On the fan, I got some notes from a piece the Athletic did on NFL scheduling.
00:06I wanted to bounce a few of these off you and see what you think.
00:09So here's a section on teams on the rebound.
00:12Going by opponents combined a winning percentage in 2025.
00:15Eight of the nine easiest schedules belong to teams that missed the playoffs in 2025.
00:20You'd expect that to be the case.
00:22Should have a softer schedule.
00:23That's the Browns, the Saints, the Bengals, who I'm really high on.
00:26The Falcons, the Colts, who could have a good bounce back here.
00:29The Lions, by the way, should be in line for a really nice progression.
00:33They're in the perfect spot.
00:34A 9-8 team, not like a 4-13 team with an easy schedule.
00:39Titans, Ravens, all listed here.
00:41But there's one team that has one of the softest schedules in the league
00:45that did make the playoffs last year.
00:46You know who that is?
00:47This is a team I think we should be buying stock in, by the way.
00:50The Houston Texans.
00:52They sneak in with the seventh easiest schedule after getting to the playoffs
00:57for the third year in a row under D'Amico Ryans.
01:00And remember, if not for that C.J. Stroud-clunker-gross-awful game,
01:05they probably beat New England.
01:07Drake May didn't play very well against their elite defense in that playoff game.
01:11They could have easily been an AFC Championship game, Super Bowl-caliber team.
01:15That's the type of defense they had.
01:18And now you're talking about one of the softest schedules in the sport.
01:21Huge year loading for Stroud, who I've seen all the videos coming out of his workouts and stuff.
01:26He looks like he's lost some baby fat, tightened up, gotten bigger and muscular.
01:30He's certainly putting in the work in the gym.
01:32I'm sure he's putting in the work in the film room.
01:34This is a massive season for him.
01:35Yeah, we did a little make or break earlier for Washington.
01:38How about for him?
01:39You know, the promise of an unbelievable start to his career for a team that's gone to the playoffs
01:44that previously was a joke.
01:45Like, last year, that performance on the biggest stage will stick with him until it doesn't.
01:50Until they do something very different when it comes to it.
01:52I don't know how this is happening, but the Panthers this year only travel 8,740 projected miles
02:01for their entire schedule.
02:02So clearly no international games for Carolina.
02:05They could basically drive in a bus like the old minor league baseball teams or something from Major League.
02:12The 49ers, just comparatively, Danny, have almost 40,000 miles they'll be racking up in travel.
02:18It's just one trip they beat Carolina.
02:20That one Australia trip or whatever, when they go around the world.
02:23Oh, wow.
02:23Good call.
02:24Pretty much, right?
02:25Yeah, basically.
02:26I mean, 8,000, I don't know that I've ever seen it that low.
02:29It's just a really good fortunate thing.
02:31I mean, it's not like there's a reason other than your road games that year,
02:34you're not making cross-country trips or whatever.
02:37But that is a massive asset.
02:39We had the guy that does the scheduling for the NFL on yesterday,
02:42and if you missed that conversation, I thought it was really fun, really cool,
02:45a lot of good answers from him on how the scheduling works.
02:49They say that there's not a correlation between rest days and win percentage,
02:54like you and I perceive that there is, or like Warren Sharp has talked about over the last several years
02:58based on all of their research.
03:00I wonder what travel schedule says when they research it,
03:05because that's something teams really care a lot about.
03:07Oh, for sure.
03:08Now, I've seen different data on rest days, so it's interesting to compare and contrast those deals.
03:13I think his goes back further, and he was talking about over like a 30-year sample,
03:18whereas I think some of the stuff you see now is over the last few years.
03:21Right, and again, it's all relevant data.
03:23I mean, it's now to the point that sportsbooks have it baked in when a team has a huge rest
03:27advantage.
03:27I'm not talking about a half a day, but like two or three days.
03:30I mean, it's now part of some of the betting lines.
03:32But looking at that schedule of Carolinas, it hadn't occurred to me that it was that low.
03:36I mean, their furthest travels in the preseason, at Arizona and at Buffalo,
03:41going all the way across the country, 3,000 miles, then all the way up to the northeast in Buffalo,
03:46their furthest trip in the regular season is probably going to Green Bay, middle of the country, and that's it.
03:50So the 49ers travel, we talked about the conditions they've got to deal with a minute ago.
03:5638,000-plus miles, 3,200 more than second-place L.A., 9,600 more than third-place Houston.
04:07But I wonder, I mean, look, they travel more than the Bears, Browns, and Panthers combined, okay?
04:13You mentioned this, their one trip to Melbourne to play a 15,000-plus-mile trek is almost twice the
04:22Panthers' entire travel slate this year.
04:25Are we overrating their travel?
04:27Because all of that happens in week one, the 15,000 miles.
04:31So really, all of a sudden now, it's 23,000, which is probably league average or so the rest of
04:37the way.
04:37Maybe on the higher side, but still, you know, 23,000 miles is a lot, but it's not abnormal or
04:42crazy or egregious.
04:43I mean, does the Melbourne thing linger for eight weeks?
04:45Probably not.
04:46I don't know the answer to that.
04:47It might linger for a week or two.
04:48Yeah, it might set you back, and then you might be behind the eight ball for however long and never
04:53feel like you got right or not be in a rhythm for a while.
04:55But at a certain point, you're just now playing football again.
04:58They've got Australia and Mexico City.
05:01The league really didn't care that much about how much complaining they were doing about that Australia trip.
05:07Here's an interesting one, I thought.
05:09Patriots, Chargers, Dolphins are the three teams ranked in both the top 10 of projected travel miles and strength of
05:19schedule.
05:20So that's based on winning percentage in 2025.
05:23Who are those three teams against them again?
05:24Patriots, Chargers, Dolphins.
05:26Patriots, Chargers, Dolphins.
05:28Which is to say they've got the most grueling schedules based on travel and who they're playing.
05:33And we know New England last year had the schedule that everyone kind of viewed as a cakewalk.
05:37Well, this year, it's the fifth most travel miles and the sixth toughest schedule.
05:41The Chargers, from a rest standpoint, have the worst rest schedule in the league.
05:4624,000 miles, seventh most, ninth toughest schedule.
05:50I think the Dolphins are going to be awful.
05:52I do too.
05:53First year under Halfley as their head coach.
05:55The Cardinals yesterday, I told you, I thought it would be the worst team in the league.
05:57The Dolphins might be second worst.
05:59First, 27th plus thousand miles for them.
06:02That's the sixth most miles traveled and the second toughest strength of schedule at 542.
06:07The Dolphins starting a rebuild with a historic amount of dead salary cap space.
06:12Yeah, they are leaning into not being any good.
06:16Seems like they did this about seven, eight years ago with Brian Flores and company.
06:19That's a good point.
06:19They won too many games with Tua and Flores are too good of a coach.
06:23But looking at the Patriots, this over Tua doesn't have the same ring to it anymore, does it?
06:26It sounded so good at the time and man, did that not work.
06:30Any hoodles, look at the Patriots though.
06:32This will be fascinating.
06:34With all the backdrop of the Vrabel off-field kind of stuff, I imagine who knows if it gets
06:38put to bed by that point.
06:39It seems like there's a new picture every 48 hours.
06:41But we'll learn a lot about the Patriots.
06:44They had a golden, yellow-bricked paved road to the championship game.
06:49And they were deserving.
06:50That was a good football team.
06:50Make no mistake.
06:51You don't go 14-3, really 14-2 since that weird week one loss when they weren't ready to play.
06:56Kicking everybody's butt, as dominant as they were at times.
06:59Beating all comers.
07:00But there was a little bit of smoke and mirrors to it.
07:03We'll now find out how bona fide the operation is.
07:06Right?
07:06With Drake Manning this, I don't want to say make or break season because he's already made
07:10an awful lot.
07:11But you'll get tested really quickly out of the gate.
07:14At Seattle, Jacksonville, Buffalo, divisional game, and a bunch of other good teams on their
07:19schedule.
07:19I don't expect 14-3, but I think they'll be really good again.
07:22But we'll see how far back down to the pack they come.
07:24There's a fan trend sweeping Major League Baseball that I think is super fun.
07:29It's a very spontaneous thing that was kind of born naturally, and it's now taking over
07:34ballparks.
07:35I want to talk about that next.
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