00:00California is one of the bluest states in America,
00:03but Democrats are more on edge this election season
00:06because of uncertainty and volatility in key races
00:09that could change the future of the state.
00:12There is a reasonable prospect that a Republican
00:15might have a chance of winning the governor's race.
00:18And then you have chronic problems
00:20that have simply become intolerable to many Californians.
00:23That makes people more willing to deviate
00:25from the status quo.
00:26For the last couple decades,
00:28California politics have felt super predictable.
00:31We haven't really had an interesting election since 2010,
00:34and that's because Jerry Brown spent eight years in office
00:37and essentially handed off
00:38to then Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom,
00:41who had eight years to train for the job.
00:43He was seen as the heir apparent.
00:44There's nothing that is given in this election
00:47because it's an open seat.
00:48And so you have so many candidates jumping into the race
00:52and so many Democrats.
00:54But because there are only two major Republican candidates
00:57and lots of relatively big-name Democrat candidates,
01:01you have Democrats splitting the field
01:03and those two Republican candidates polling consistently higher
01:07than the other Democrats, at least until recently.
01:09The last Republican governor of California
01:11was Arnold Schwarzenegger, who served from 2003 to 2011.
01:16Regardless, Pollack says someone like former Fox News host Steve Hilton
01:20still stands a chance because of his focus on policy solutions
01:25at a time when Californians are feeling especially depleted
01:29by a lack of progress on key issues,
01:31including the cost of living, homelessness, insurance, and natural disasters.
01:36Meanwhile, fatigue with the status quo is also fueling an unlikely candidate
01:40in the mayoral race in Los Angeles, the largest city in California.
01:45The top three contenders include current mayor Karen Vass
01:48and city council member Nithya Rahman, both Democrats,
01:52and former reality TV villain Spencer Pratt,
01:55who is a registered Republican but is running as an independent.
01:58It's usually the case that the incumbent wins, no matter what, hands down.
02:03And if Spencer Pratt did not enter this race,
02:05that probably would have been the case.
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