00:01I think increased awareness could have been a small role,
00:04increase in diagnoses less so.
00:06The reason I believe this is because we actually explicitly exclude
00:11treatment-seeking data, official diagnostic data from our modelling
00:15because we know it's biased, and we also know that the amount,
00:20the proportion of those with a mental disorder
00:21that actually seek treatment changes over time.
00:25It changes by sex, it changes by age, by generation, and by country.
00:28So when we get that data, we actually have no idea how to use it.
00:31So we mostly rely on population representative survey data,
00:36like think the ABS, the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing.
00:40So that's kind of our gold standard data where they do household door knocking
00:44and among the random population, they'll conduct diagnostic interviews
00:49and say, well, what proportion of the random population meet criteria,
00:55diagnostic criteria for a mental disorder?
00:57And from this data, we're seeing these increases.
01:01So, for example, one estimate that stands out, I can't let go of this estimate,
01:06which from that survey is among the 18 to 24-year-olds in Australia,
01:1118 to 24-year-old females, that 40% of them had an anxiety disorder
01:16in the past 12 months.
01:17So I just think that's astronomical.
01:18Yeah, and so anxiety disorders and major depressive disorders were the most common.
01:25Was that different to 1990 and what do you put that down to?
01:29No, they've always been most common.
01:32I guess if anything, they've just been, they've become more common.
01:35So we've seen that their rates in population have increased over time.
01:39They've always kind of competed against each other in, you know,
01:42which is the most burdensome disorder.
01:45Anxiety disorders has always been the most prevalent,
01:47but depressive disorders has more disability associated with it.
01:51So sometimes it becomes more burdensome.
01:54But we've seen increases over time.
01:55These are the two disorders that are, you know,
01:57the most vulnerable to external risk factors.
02:00So we'll see the most changes of these.
02:02And was there a noticeable effect from the COVID pandemic?
02:07We did estimate a noticeable increase from the pandemic.
02:11So to do this, we compiled data conducted during the pandemic
02:15and then also compared that to pre-pandemic data.
02:18And we could see a bump in the prevalence there.
02:20And we found that that was also associated with the COVID-19 mortality rate,
02:26given the study location and time.
02:28So we've seen this increase.
02:30We saw it seemed to be stronger among youth,
02:33that youth seemed to have a higher prevalence during the pandemic
02:37than older ages.
02:39And I wonder, you know, this is a time of critical social development
02:46where they're supposed to be interacting with each other,
02:48seeing each other, partying, whatever the teenagers do,
02:50whatever adolescents do, but they couldn't.
02:52They were in lockdown or they were trying to avoid the illness.
02:55And so I think this has diminished their, you know,
02:58exposure to social interaction during a critical period.
03:01And so this is a big picture look at the situation.
03:04You can't get any bigger picture than this.
03:07What are the, why did you take this on?
03:10And what are the lessons from this in terms of how identifying
03:14and treating mental health should be approached?
03:16So we conducted this study as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study,
03:20which is, it's funded by the Gates Foundation with the aim of providing publicly available estimates
03:26of the prevalence and the burden of over 350 diseases and injuries around the world.
03:31And my team based here in Brisbane is responsible for the mental disorder estimates.
03:36And so that's what this paper is reporting on.
03:38It's reporting on the mental disorder estimates that we've led.
03:42And regarding, you know, what can we do about this?
03:44I mean, we know that, you know, prevention is key for mental disorders.
03:48So addressing those kind of risk factors,
03:50so that people don't develop a mental disorder in the first place.
03:54Many of these risk factors occur during youth and adolescence.
03:56We know, for example, bullying is a strong predictor.
03:59Sexual violence against children is a strong predictor.
04:01So anything we can do to, you know, reduce these, the risk factors towards vulnerable populations.
04:09I also am very curious to see any evaluations of this ban on social media.
04:14Very curious to see, you know, those results.
04:17But also we know that treatment for mental disorders are effective.
04:21There's strong evidence to show that.
04:22And we also know that the proportion of those with a mental disorder seeking treatment is very small.
04:27We estimated this to be about 9% globally two years ago.
04:31And in Australia, it was only 30%.
04:33Definitely better than globally, but still a long way to go.
04:37And so have you got any views on how the Australian government is approaching things like prevention and treatment and
04:44encouraging people to seek treatment?
04:47I think there's always more that can be done, given that still only 30% that are seeking minimal medical
04:52treatment.
04:53I think there's a big gap there.
04:55I was very happy when, you know, during the pandemic, when they increased the Medicare rebate for people to seek
05:00psychological therapies.
05:02And I was a bit sad when that was taken away again.
05:04And so I think kind of, you know, action towards those kind of policies is going to be beneficial.
05:09I think as well, any kind of efforts to increase the workforce as well.
05:13As part of our work, we're always trying to, we're always showing our results to clinicians on the ground actually
05:19facing people because we need that feedback.
05:21And I was like, is this true?
05:23Are you seeing this for yourself, these increases?
05:25And the constant feedback was, yes, we're being swamped.
05:28So increasing the workforce would alleviate some of that demand.
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