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The UK and European nations are quietly easing sanctions on Russian oil due to soaring fuel prices following the Strait of Hormuz closure amid the US-Iran war.
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00:00Hello and welcome, you're watching Statecraft with me Geeta Mohan.
00:03What happens when Europe quietly begins rolling back its own sanctions on Russia
00:07as energy prices spiral after the Strait of Hormuz disruption?
00:12Meanwhile, India prepares to host America's top diplomat for a quad meeting
00:16that some in diplomatic circles say may already have been politically diluted before it even begins.
00:22Tonight, two stories that expose how fast strategic certainty is giving way to real-world pressure.
00:30UK and European policy shifts are allowing Russian-linked fuel back into markets
00:34as energy costs, surge and political resolve is tested.
00:39Then in New Delhi, Marco Rubio's visit raises a sharper question.
00:43Is the quad being reshaped quietly, away from the spotlight and on very different terms than originally imagined?
00:50All that and more, but first up, the headlines.
00:55Days after Chinese President Xi Jinping warned U.S. President Donald Trump over Taiwan
00:59and said it was the most important issue in China-U.S. relations,
01:03Trump told reporters that he will speak to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-ter.
01:07This would be an unprecedented move since the U.S. and Taiwanese presidents have not spoken directly since 1979.
01:14In an attempt to exert maximum pressure on Cuba, U.S. federal prosecutors announced criminal charges
01:20against former Cuban President Raul Castro in the 1996 downing of civilian planes.
01:26The indictment accuses Castro of ordering the shoot-down of two small planes operated by the exile group Brothers to
01:31the Rescue.
01:32Castro, who turns 95 next month, was Cuba's defense minister at the time.
01:37A Paris Appeals court found Airbus and Air France guilty of corporate manslaughter over the 2009 Rio-Paris plane crash
01:45that killed 228 passengers and crew in France's worst air disaster.
01:51The verdict is the latest milestone in a legal marathon involving two of France's most emblematic companies
01:58and relatives of the mainly French, Brazilian and German victims.
02:03A U.K. radio station has apologized to Britain's King Charles III and its listeners
02:08after accidentally and incorrectly announcing the death of the monarch.
02:12Established in 1964, Radio Caroline broadcasts in multiple countries,
02:17including Belgium and the Netherlands, and is available online worldwide.
02:23A day after U.S. President Donald Trump, during an annual congressional picnic event,
02:28said the war with Iran would end very quickly and the Iranians wanted to make a deal really badly.
02:34Pakistan Interior Minister Mohsin Nakwe met with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araki in Tehran.
02:40Pakistan has been the prime mediator between Washington and Tehran,
02:44and Tehran has said it was reviewing Washington's latest responses
02:48as President Donald Trump suggested he could wait a few days for the right answers from Tehran.
02:54Meanwhile, an Axios report says a tense phone call took place between Trump and his Israeli counterpart,
03:01Netanyahu, regarding the progress of the Iran war.
03:05Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been advocating for a more aggressive approach towards Iran since the start of the war,
03:12but Trump has preferred diplomatic one, halting further attacks since the announcement of the ceasefire.
03:19Earlier, too, both the leaders deferred in terms of war strategy.
03:22Israel had allegedly attacked the South Far's oil field in Iran without taking the U.S. into confidence.
03:29The U.S. military boarded an Iranian-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman
03:33that was suspected of trying to violate the American blockade.
03:37That is one of the latest actions by the Trump administration to try to push Tehran to reopen the Strait
03:43of Hormuz.
03:44The U.S. Central Command said on social media that the empty Celestial Sea was searched and redirected
03:51after being suspected of trying to head to an Iranian port.
03:55It's at least the fifth commercial vessel to be boarded since the Trump administration imposed blockade on Iranian shipping in
04:03mid-April.
04:04Iran's new body overseeing the Strait of Hormuz, called the Persian Gulf Authority,
04:09has said its claimed area of control extends to waters south of the United Arab Emirates port of Ujaira,
04:16which hosts oil infrastructure designed to bypass the strategic waterway.
04:21Meanwhile, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe Alexis G. Grinkovic told reporters
04:27that the conditions under which NATO would consider operating in the Strait of Hormuz are ultimately a political decision.
04:37One of the masterminds of the 2019 Pulwama attack, which left over 40 CRPF personnel dead,
04:43was killed by unknown gunmen in Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir.
04:48A resident of Pulwama, Hamza Burhan, known as Doctor,
04:51was designated as a terrorist by the Union Home Ministry of India in 2022.
04:58Born in Kharbatpora in the Ratnipora area of Pulwama,
05:03Burhan left for Pakistan in the year 2017 under the pretext of pursuing higher studies.
05:09However, he joined the banned terror outfit Al-Badr and soon rose to the rank of commander in the outfit.
05:15He returned to Kashmir later and was involved in radicalizing youth and indoctrinating them.
05:20Burhan has been linked to several terror-related activities in Jammu and Kashmir,
05:25including the 14th February 2019 Pulwama terror attack.
05:30Burhan's killing comes against the backdrop of a series of mysterious attacks
05:34targeting terrorists and top commanders of Lashkar-e-Toyba, Jaisya Muhammad and Hezbollah Jahideen.
05:40The Pulwama incident was one of the deadliest attacks on security personnel in India,
05:45carried out by JEM, that's Jaisya Muhammad.
05:48A JEM terrorist rammed an explosives-laden car into a convoy of the CRPF at Lethpura,
05:56killing 40 personnel.
05:57The attack led the Indian Air Force to launch a surgical strike in Balakot in Pakistan a few days later,
06:03raising tensions between the two countries.
06:06Security agencies said Burhan provided explosives and grenades to the terrorists who carried out the Pulwama attack.
06:13He was also found to be involved in the grenade attack on CRPF personnel on the 18th of November 2020
06:19as well.
06:21The UK spent two years chest-thumping about starving Russia's war machine.
06:26Toughest sanctions in the world, unwavering commitment, big words, great speeches.
06:32Then quietly it slipped out a license allowing Russian oil, refined in India and Turkey,
06:38to flow right back into UK markets.
06:40No press conference, no big announcement,
06:43just a document buried on a government website.
06:47Across Europe, countries that once swore off Russian energy suddenly got very interested
06:52in keeping an old Soviet pipeline alive.
06:55Jet fuel prices doubled, diesel costs soared,
06:59and the moral high ground, it got extremely expensive, extremely fast.
07:04So did Putin, without firing a single shot westward, just win a round he had no business winning?
07:11Why did the UK suddenly allow Russian-linked fuel back?
07:15Because prices went insane.
07:17Before the US-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,
07:20jet fuel traded at around $800 per ton in Europe.
07:25By April, it touched $1,800.
07:29Airlines canceled flights, budgets exploded.
07:32The original plan, announced in October last year,
07:35was to ban all oil products made from Russian crude,
07:39even if refined in India or Turkey first.
07:44Then prices doubled, and the government issued what it called a phase-in.
07:49That is a very polished way of saying they blinked.
07:52So has the closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced Europe into a brutal energy reality check?
07:58Absolutely.
07:58A large portion of Europe's jet fuel moved through that waterway
08:02or was affected because prices inflated.
08:06When it shut, the shock hit immediately.
08:09Europe's real problem was not just what it directly imported through Hormuz,
08:13its price transmission.
08:15When Gulf flows stopped, Asian buyers bid up global crude,
08:20and European refineries pay the difference.
08:23Think of it as a traffic jam on one road that backs up every single road in the city.
08:30The EU released emergency oil stocks, coordinated demand reduction signals,
08:34and publicly warned that high energy prices had no quick end in sight.
08:39The reality check?
08:41Europe diversified a lot since 2022, just not enough.
08:46And the gaps showed up the moment the Gulf went dark.
08:51Did cheap Russian pipeline oil just become politically irresistible again for parts of Europe?
08:56For some countries, yes, and they made no secret of it.
09:00Hungary and Slovakia never fully left the Russian oil orbit.
09:04With global prices surging from the Hormuz closure,
09:07cheap pipeline-delivered Russian crude suddenly looked like the only bargain on a very expensive menu.
09:14It is like swearing off junk food,
09:16and then someone puts a cheeseburger in front of you during a famine.
09:21The diet ends fast.
09:23Why did Hungary and Slovakia fight so hard to keep the Drisba pipeline alive?
09:28Because their refineries were literally built for Russian-grade crude.
09:31Switching to alternatives takes years, not weeks.
09:35Hungary's Orban blocked a 90 billion euro EU loan to Ukraine until the Drisba pipeline restarted.
09:43Slovakia backed him.
09:44Their argument?
09:45We cannot afford expensive spot market oil
09:48when a pipeline delivers cheaper Russian crude straight to our refineries.
09:53Then Orban lost Hungary's April election.
09:56Peter Marjiar won.
09:58The pipeline restarted almost immediately,
10:01and the EU loan for Ukraine passed the same morning.
10:04One election flipped the entire equation overnight.
10:08Why do pipeline sanctions get treated differently from seaborne Russian oil sanctions?
10:13Because cutting off a landlocked refinery overnight
10:16is a completely different beast from banning tankers at sea.
10:20The EU banned seaborne Russian crude,
10:24the 70 to 85 percent that arrived by ship,
10:27which did the bulk of damage to Russia's revenues.
10:30Pipeline oil concentrated in Central Europe got a temporary carve-out
10:35because those countries had no immediate alternative route.
10:40Shut the pipeline without a backup plan,
10:42and refineries across Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic go dark.
10:47That is a political crisis no one in Brussels wanted to own.
10:52Did Putin just gain unexpected leverage from the U.S.-Iran war?
10:56Yes.
10:56And here is the brutal part.
10:58He did not have to do anything.
11:00The U.S.-Iran war closed Hormuz.
11:03Prices spiked.
11:04The U.K. eased sanctions.
11:06Hungary and Slovakia demanded pipeline flows.
11:09The Drisba restarted.
11:11Putin did not manufacture this crisis.
11:14He did not need to.
11:15The U.S.-Iran war handed him a lifeline,
11:18and parts of Europe grabbed it before anyone had the nerve to say no.
11:23Pakistan spent weeks telling the world its Chinese-made JF-17 Thunder
11:28had humiliated India,
11:29even claiming it struck the S-400 air defense system.
11:33But the same jet has now crashed during a routine training mission near Kamara,
11:38beside its factory,
11:39exposing a widening gap between claim and capability.
11:43So what does this reveal about Pakistan's air power narrative?
11:47Here is a report.
11:55Pakistan spent weeks telling the world its China-made JF-17 Thunder had humiliated India.
12:02It claimed the jet had taken out India's prized S-400 missile system.
12:07It celebrated.
12:08It boasted.
12:09The internet lit up with Pakistani generals and ministers declaring victory in the skies.
12:14And now, the same jet crashed.
12:17Not in a dogfight,
12:19not over enemy territory,
12:20during a routine training mission,
12:23right next to the very factory that builds it.
12:25A Pakistan Air Force JF-17 Thunder went down near the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex in Kamara,
12:32the very complex that co-produces this jet.
12:34Since its induction into the PAF in 2007,
12:38the JF-17 has seen a slew of crashes,
12:41and the aircraft has been grounded multiple times due to issues including cracks in guide vanes,
12:47exhaust nozzles,
12:48and flame stabilizers.
12:49Both pilots ejected,
12:51reportedly sustaining serious injuries.
12:53No civilian casualties.
12:55But the damage to the aircraft and to Pakistan's credibility was severe.
12:59This is not an isolated incident.
13:02This is reportedly the seventh crash involving Chinese-origin fighter aircraft in Pakistan in recent years.
13:08Now rewind to May 2025.
13:10Pakistan claimed its JF-17,
13:12protected by intensive electronic jamming and extensive use of decoys,
13:16had penetrated the firing envelope of India's S-400 battery at Adampur
13:21and launched hypersonic CM-400 AKG missiles at it.
13:26Pakistani state media ran with it.
13:28Celebrations erupted.
13:30The JF-17 was declared a game-changer.
13:32India's S-400 downed a PAF JF-17 thunder,
13:37and the IAF chief called it the longest ever surface-to-air kill ever recorded.
13:41The JF-17's tragic flaw is said to be its engine.
13:45Powered initially by a Russian RD-93,
13:48even the Chinese Air Force found it lacking
13:50and never inducted the jet into its own fleet.
13:53Think about that.
13:54China built it,
13:55but China won't fly it.
13:57The JF-17 has serious documented flaws.
14:00Low endurance,
14:02poor accuracy,
14:03unreliable airborne interception radar,
14:05low payload capacity,
14:07and frequent failures of key modules.
14:09And yet,
14:10this is the backbone of Pakistan's Air Force.
14:13When a prized jet goes down during a training flight,
14:16in peacetime,
14:17right next to where it was made,
14:19it stops being a thunder.
14:21It becomes a blunder.
14:22India is preparing to host a major diplomatic moment for the Indo-Pacific,
14:31where the timing is delicate.
14:33U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to arrive in India on his first official visit from May
14:3923rd to the 26th of May,
14:41a trip that places him directly into the center of Quad diplomacy at a moment when questions are growing,
14:47not about what the Quad is doing, but whether its most visible political moment in India has already been quietly
14:54disrupted before it even begins.
14:56Marco Rubio will travel across four Indian cities,
15:00Kolkata,
15:01Agra,
15:01Jaipur,
15:02and New Delhi.
15:03The visit comes immediately after his participation in the NATO Foreign Minister's meeting in Sweden.
15:08In India,
15:09the agenda is wide-ranging.
15:11Trade,
15:11defense,
15:12energy,
15:13and broader strategic coordination in the Indo-Pacific.
15:16Officials say Rubio will hold high-level meetings with senior Indian leadership before attending the Quad Foreign Minister's meeting in
15:23New Delhi on the 26th of May.
15:26The U.S. Embassy in New Delhi has confirmed the Quad format will include Australia, Japan, India, and the United
15:33States,
15:33with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi Toshimitsu also expected to attend.
15:40The meeting will be chaired by India's External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. J. Shankar.
15:45But even before the ministers sit down at the table, a question is already circulating in diplomatic circles.
15:51Has the Quad summit, which India is expected to host, already been quietly weakened, not cancelled, not abandoned, but structurally
16:00diluted in both timing and political weight?
16:03That question links directly to a broader debate now surrounding the Quad itself.
16:08A recent assessment argues the group is not in decline, but in transition.
16:14The 2025 summit did not take place.
16:16High-level optics have reduced, and public attention has faded.
16:20But beneath that surface, coordination has continued.
16:24The Quad today is increasingly described less as a summit-driven alliance and more as a coordination platform,
16:31a mechanism for aligning policies rather than announcing breakthroughs.
16:35Its work now sits in technical groups, working-level engagements, and sector-specific cooperation on infrastructure, maritime awareness, and emerging
16:46technologies.
16:48And that shift changes how we read its visibility, because what looks like slowdown at the political level
16:55may actually be a relocation of activity into quieter channels.
16:59Away from the summit stagecraft, into institutional plumbing, India brings strategic autonomy and global south outreach.
17:07Japan brings institutional consistency and economic depth.
17:11Australia anchors Pacific maritime reach.
17:15And the United States provides scale and strategic weight.
17:18The asymmetry is not accidental, it is structural.
17:23But structural does not always mean stable.
17:25And this is where the timing of India's Quad moment becomes more complicated.
17:30Because the question is no longer just what the Quad is doing, it is what kind of political environment it
17:36is doing it in.
17:38One of the underlying tensions is visibility.
17:41The Quad's most ambitious phase was defined by summit diplomacy, vaccine partnerships, infrastructure announcements, and high-profile coordination.
17:50The grouping now is judged less by announcements and more by continuity.
17:57And continuity is harder to broadcast.
17:59A December 2025 Indo-Pacific logistics exercise is often cited in diplomatic circles as a quieter example of that shift.
18:08Focused on disaster response coordination and shared operational capability, it received little public attention.
18:15But it reflects the direction of travel, from optics to operations.
18:21Which brings us back to New Delhi.
18:23Because the India-hosted Quad Foreign Minister's meeting is still on the calendar.
18:28But it is also arriving at a moment when Quad itself is no longer trying to be seen everywhere, all
18:33at once.
18:34And that raises a different kind of question.
18:36Not whether the meeting happens, but what political weight it actually carries when it does.
18:43There is also a second layer of uncertainty.
18:45The so-called missing summit effect.
18:482025 Quad Leaders Summit in India did not take place.
18:51And that absence has created a perception gap.
18:54In geopolitics, optics often become narrative.
18:58And narrative often becomes expectation.
19:00So when a major Quad moment returns to India in 2026 in a downgraded ministerial format, rather than a leadership
19:08summit, which could happen late in the year,
19:11but it inevitably invites comparison.
19:13Not just with what is happening, but what did not happen.
19:18And that is where the word jinxed begins to circulate in diplomatic commentary.
19:23Not as literal claim, but as shorthand for something more structural.
19:27The Quad's biggest India moment may have lost its original political momentum before it even fully arrived.
19:34But there is a counterpoint, and it is important.
19:37The Quad has survived leadership changes in Washington.
19:40It has survived friction among members, most notably Trump's tariff war against India.
19:45And it has survived repeated predictions of collapse.
19:49Its real evolution has been institutional, not theatrical.
19:53So as Marco Rubio arrives in India for his first visit, and Quad ministers prepare to meet in New Delhi,
19:59the real story may not be whether Quad is rising or falling.
20:02It may be something more uncomfortable for political optics.
20:06That it is no longer designed to be watched in one place, at one moment, on one stage.
20:12Instead, it is dispersed, quiet and operational.
20:16Which makes it harder to measure, but also harder to dismiss.
20:20And in that sense, the Quad is not disappearing from India's diplomatic calendar.
20:24It is simply changing how it appears on it.
20:28That's all in this edition of Statecraft.
20:30But before I go, we leave you with another interesting story.
20:35This is from India, a Gen Z viral moment with a twist.
20:38How one controversial comment turned into a viral protest after remarks linked to Chief Justice of India,
20:45Surya Khand, allegedly compared certain unemployed youth and activists to cockroaches.
20:50Youth across the internet have rallied together and made cockroach janta party.
20:55A group of young volunteers in Delhi, dressed as giant cockroaches,
20:59complete with antenna headbands, gathered at Kalindi Kunj Ghat,
21:04and began cleaning garbage along the polluted Yamuna River Bank.
21:07The message was hard to miss.
21:09The so-called cockroaches were the ones actually cleaning the city.
21:14Take a look at the visuals.
21:15Enjoy.
21:16Goodbye and take care.
21:37Goodbye and take care.
21:39Goodbye and take care.
21:40Goodbye and take care.
21:41Goodbye and take care.
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